scholarly journals Time use and social mixing during and around festive periods: Potential changes in the age distribution of COVID-19 cases from increased intergenerational interactions

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Edwin van Leeuwen ◽  
Frank G. Sandmann ◽  
Rosalind M. Eggo ◽  
Peter J. White ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Time Use ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Age Distribution ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
List Type ◽  
Relative Incidence ◽  
Holiday Period ◽  
Social Mixing ◽  
Intergenerational Interactions ◽  
The Impact

AbstractRationaleAmid the ongoing coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic in which many countries have adopted physical distancing measures, tiered restrictions, and episodic “lockdowns,” the impact of potentially increased social mixing during festive holidays on the age distribution of new COVID-19 cases remains unclear.ObjectiveWe aimed to gain insights into possible changes in the age distribution of COVID-19 cases in the UK after temporarily increased intergenerational interactions in late December 2020.MethodWe modelled changes in time use and social mixing based on age-stratified contact rates using historical nationally-representative surveys and up-to-date Google mobility data from four weeks before and after the festive period. We explored changes in the effective reproduction number and the age distribution of cases, in four scenarios: (1) “normal”: time use and contact patterns as observed historically, (2) “pre-lockdown”: patterns as seen before the lockdown in November 2020, (3) “lockdown”: patterns restricted as in November 2020, and (4) “festive break”: similar to 3 but with social visits over the holiday period as in 1.ResultsAcross ages, the estimated Reff decreases during the festive break in scenarios 1-3 and returns to pre-holiday levels in scenarios 2-3, while remaining relatively stable in scenario 4. Relative incidence is likely to decrease in children aged 0-15 but increase in other ages. Changes in age distribution were large during the holidays, and are likely to start before the holidays for individuals aged 16-24 years in scenarios 1-3.ConclusionsOur modelling findings suggest that increased contacts during the festive period may shift the age distribution of COVID-19 cases from children towards adults. Given that COVID-19-related hospitalisations and deaths rise by age, more intergenerational mixing risks an increased burden in the period following the holidays.HighlightsHome visits are associated with increased intergenerational mixing.The effective reproduction number is likely to remain stable or even reduce slightly due to a reduction in contacts at work and school.Relative incidence is likely to become lower in children, but higher in theolder (more vulnerable) age groups around the holiday period, which could lead to increased health care burden.

scholarly journals The return of the historic influenza A H1N1 virus and its impact on the population of the United Kingdom

1982 ◽  
Vol 89 (1) ◽  
pp. 89-100 ◽  
Author(s):  
P. Chakraverty ◽  
P. Cunningham ◽  
M. S. Pereira
Keyword(s):  
United Kingdom ◽  
Influenza A ◽  
Antigenic Variation ◽  
Adult Population ◽  
Age Distribution ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Influenza A H1n1 ◽  
Older Adult Population ◽  
The Impact

SUMMARYThe epidemiology in the United Kingdom of the influenza A H1N1 subtype which returned in 1977 after an absence of 20 years is described for the four winter seasons from 1977/8 to 1980/1. The age distribution of virus isolates and the evidence for antigenic variation is presented. The impact in the susceptible age groups year by year is shown by the change in the population with specific antibody. There was the expected increase of antibody in those under the age of 21 but also evidence for a significant amount of infection or re-infection in the older adult population.

Experimental Blunt Injury to the Larynx

1992 ◽  
Vol 101 (3) ◽  
pp. 270-274 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shiann Yann Lee
Keyword(s):  
Sex Difference ◽  
Thyroid Cartilage ◽  
Age Distribution ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Central Zone ◽  
Fracture Line ◽  
Blunt Injury ◽  
Clinical Experiences ◽  
Laryngeal Trauma ◽  
The Impact

This article deals with the fracture line distribution and severity of laryngeal trauma. Laryngeal trauma was experimentally inflicted on 100 human laryngeal specimens with the impact of a 2.0-kg weight falling by gravity from a height of 100 cm. According to the previous pilot experiment and clinical experiences, the author classified the severity of fracture into four grades. The results showed no significant sex difference in the severity of fracture with reference to age distribution, especially severe injury in older age groups. The pattern of fracture lines of the laryngeal cartilage was observed and traced in four selected locations, including the thyroid notch, central zone of the thyroid cartilage, cricothyroid region, and cricoid. The distributions of fracture lines are illustrated. The experiment is described in detail.

scholarly journals The spreading of SARS-CoV-2: Interage contacts and networks degree distribution

PLoS ONE ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (8) ◽  
pp. e0256036
Author(s):  
Lucas Sage ◽  
Marco Albertini ◽  
Stefani Scherer
Keyword(s):  
Degree Distribution ◽  
Age Distribution ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
The Elderly ◽  
Virus Propagation ◽  
Face To Face ◽  
Contact Patterns ◽  
Simple Question ◽  
Italian Context ◽  
The Impact

Notable cross-country differences exist in the diffusion of the Covid-19 and in its lethality. Contact patterns in populations, and in particular intergenerational contacts, have been argued to be responsible for the most vulnerable, the elderly, getting infected more often and thus driving up mortality in some context, like in the southern European one. This paper asks a simple question: is it between whom contacts occur that matters or is it simply how many contacts people have? Due to the high number of confounding factors, it is extremely difficult to empirically assess the impact of single network features separately. This is why we rely on a simulation exercise in which we counterfactually manipulate single aspects of countries’ age distribution and network structures. We disentangle the contributions of the kind and of the number of contacts while holding constant the age structure. More precisely, we isolate the respective effects of inter-age contact patterns, degree distribution and clustering on the virus propagation across age groups. We use survey data on face-to-face contacts for Great Britain, Italy, and Germany, to reconstruct networks that mirror empirical contact patterns in these three countries. It turns out that the number of social contacts (degree distribution) largely accounts for the higher infection rates of the elderly in the Italian context, while differences in inter-age contacts patterns are only responsible for minor differences. This suggests that policies specifically targeting inter-age contacts would be little effective.

scholarly journals Intergenerational Engagement in Residential Settings: A Scoping Review of the Literature

2021 ◽  
Vol 5 (Supplement_1) ◽  
pp. 851-851
Author(s):  
Andrea Gardiola ◽  
Raza Mirza ◽  
Amanda Bull ◽  
Christopher Klinger ◽  
Jessica Hsieh ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Older Adults ◽  
Health Outcomes ◽  
Scoping Review ◽  
Grey Literature ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Long Term Effects ◽  
Hand Search ◽  
Intergenerational Interactions ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Intergenerational engagement provides a rich environment for people of different ages to come together and exchange life stories, skills, and knowledge. Today, intergenerational interactions are decreasing, however, these exchanges can have positive implications for seniors in residential care homes (RCHs) and younger persons. A scoping review following Arksey and O’Malley’s five-step framework was conducted to investigate the impact of intergenerational engagement and programs (IGPs) on older adults in RCHs. A systematic search of ten electronic databases and hand search of references was carried out; thematic content analysis to established key themes. A total of 1,183 academic and grey literature sources were reviewed, with 66 full-text studies assessed for eligibility. Of these sources, 35 studies met inclusion criteria. Studies highlighted four main themes: 1. Types of IGPs, 2. Psycho-social benefits for older adults and improved status among elders with cognitive impairments, 3. Younger person benefits, suggesting reduced ageism and improved social and communication skills, and 4. Program recommendations, including the need for enthusiastic program facilitators, coordination between facilities, sensitivity training for younger persons, detailed advertisements, and appropriate activities for different age groups. Findings inform future practice and research, highlighting that IGPs are an effective strategy to alleviate negative health outcomes for seniors in RCHs. Future research is needed to evaluate long-term effects and further health outcomes. IGPs provide an opportunity to facilitate purposeful and reciprocal relationships between generations, fostering intergenerational understanding. By studying IGPs and intergenerational interactions, we can better determine practices that meaningfully engage elders in RCHs in Canada.

scholarly journals Estimating reproduction numbers for adults and children from case data

2011 ◽  
Vol 8 (62) ◽  
pp. 1248-1259 ◽  
Author(s):  
K. Glass ◽  
G. N. Mercer ◽  
H. Nishiura ◽  
E. S. McBryde ◽  
N. G. Becker
Keyword(s):  
Pandemic Influenza ◽  
Influenza A ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Reproduction Numbers ◽  
Influenza A H1n1 ◽  
Pandemic Influenza H1n1 ◽  
Adults And Children ◽  
Reporting Rates ◽  
The Impact

We present a method for estimating reproduction numbers for adults and children from daily onset data, using pandemic influenza A(H1N1) data as a case study. We investigate the impact of different underlying transmission assumptions on our estimates, and identify that asymmetric reproduction matrices are often appropriate. Under-reporting of cases can bias estimates of the reproduction numbers if reporting rates are not equal across the two age groups. However, we demonstrate that the estimate of the higher reproduction number is robust to disproportionate data-thinning. Applying the method to 2009 pandemic influenza H1N1 data from Japan, we demonstrate that the reproduction number for children was considerably higher than that of adults, and that our estimates are insensitive to our choice of reproduction matrix.

scholarly journals The impact of relaxing interventions on human contact patterns and SARS-CoV-2 transmission in China

2021 ◽  
Vol 7 (19) ◽  
pp. eabe2584
Author(s):  
Juanjuan Zhang ◽  
Maria Litvinova ◽  
Yuxia Liang ◽  
Wen Zheng ◽  
Huilin Shi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Reproduction Number ◽  
School Closure ◽  
School Interventions ◽  
Community Activities ◽  
Human Contact ◽  
Contact Patterns ◽  
Social Mixing ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Nonpharmaceutical Interventions ◽  
The Impact

Nonpharmaceutical interventions to control SARS-CoV-2 spread have been implemented with different intensity, timing, and impact on transmission. As a result, post-lockdown COVID-19 dynamics are heterogeneous and difficult to interpret. We describe a set of contact surveys performed in four Chinese cities (Wuhan, Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Changsha) during the pre-pandemic, lockdown and post-lockdown periods to quantify changes in contact patterns. In the post-lockdown period, the mean number of contacts increased by 5 to 17% as compared to the lockdown period. However, it remains three to seven times lower than its pre-pandemic level sufficient to control SARS-CoV-2 transmission. We find that the impact of school interventions depends nonlinearly on the intensity of other activities. When most community activities are halted, school closure leads to a 77% decrease in the reproduction number; in contrast, when social mixing outside of schools is at pre-pandemic level, school closure leads to a 5% reduction in transmission.

scholarly journals Monitoring life expectancy levels during the COVID-19 pandemic: Example of the unequal impact in Spanish regions

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sergi Trias-Llimós ◽  
Tim Riffe ◽  
Usama Bilal
Keyword(s):  
Life Expectancy ◽  
Count Data ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Balearic Islands ◽  
Health Impacts ◽  
List Type ◽  
National Statistics ◽  
Spanish Regions ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Death Count

AbstractBackgroundTo provide an interpretable summary of the impact on mortality of the COVID-19 pandemic we estimate weekly and annual life expectancies at birth in Spain and its regions.MethodsWe used daily death count data from the Spanish MoMo, and death counts from 2018, and population on 1 July, 2019 by region (CCAA), age groups, and sex from the Spanish National Statistics Institute. We estimated weekly and annual (2019 and 2020*, the shifted annual calendar period up to June 14th 2020) life expectancies at birth as well as their differences with respect to 2019.ResultsWeekly life expectancies at birth in Spain were lower in weeks 11-20, 2020 compared to the same weeks in 2019. This drop in weekly life expectancy was especially strong in weeks 13 and 14 (March 23rd to April 5th), with national declines ranging between 6.1 and 7.6 years and maximum regional weekly declines of up to 15 years in Madrid. Annual life expectancy differences between 2019 and 2020 also reflected an overall drop in annual life expectancy of 0.8 years for both men and women. These drops ranged between 0 years in several regions (e.g. Canary and Balearic Islands) to 2.7 years among men in Madrid.ConclusionsLife expectancy is an easy to interpret measure for understanding the heterogeneity of mortality patterns across Spanish regions. Weekly and annual life expectancy are sensitive useful indicators for understanding disparities and communicating the gravity of the situation because differences are expressed in intuitive year units.Key messages-Weekly and annual updated life expectancy are valuable indicators of the health impacts of the pandemic in populations.-The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic in Spain has been severe and highly heterogeneous, with weekly life expectancy falls of up to 15 years in Madrid, and with annual life expectancy falls ranging between 0 and 2.7 years.-Our results for Spain provide important insights into the magnitude of the pandemic in mortality levels across regions and are easy to interpret and compare.

scholarly journals Epidemiology and Trends of Pertussis among Infants: United States, 2000–2015

2017 ◽  
Vol 4 (suppl_1) ◽  
pp. S5-S5 ◽  
Author(s):  
Catherine Bozio ◽  
Tami Skoff ◽  
Tracy Pondo ◽  
Jennifer Liang
Keyword(s):  
Negative Binomial ◽  
Severe Disease ◽  
Age Distribution ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
Annual Average ◽  
Young Infants ◽  
Hospitalization Rates ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Over Time

Abstract Background Pertussis, a cyclic respiratory disease, causes the greatest morbidity and mortality among infants, particularly those too young to be vaccinated. Following a resurgence of pertussis in the 1990s, a recommendation was made in 2012 to vaccinate during every pregnancy in order to prevent infant disease. We describe pertussis trends from 2000–2015 among U.S. infants aged <1 year. Methods We analyzed infant pertussis cases reported through the National Notifiable Diseases Surveillance System from 2000 to 2015. Incidence rates (cases per 100,000 population) among various age groups (<2, 2– <4, 4– <6, and 6–<12 months) were calculated using National Center for Health Statistics population estimates as denominators. Negative binomial regression was used to estimate the annual average percent change with a linear trend; P < 0.05 was significant. Results From 2000 to 2015, 48,909 infant pertussis cases and 255 deaths were reported; infants aged <2 months accounted for 38.7% of cases. The age distribution of infant cases was stable from 2000 to 2009 but changed from 2010 to 2015 (Fig. 1), as the proportion of cases aged 4–<12 months increased annually on average by 4.7% (P < 0.001). Annual incidence was highest among <2 month olds; however, rates increased among older infants (Fig. 2): 7% average annual increase among infants aged 4–<6 months and 11% among infants aged 6–<12 months (P < 0.001 for each). The proportion of infants hospitalized decreased over time in each age group (P < 0.001 for all) with the largest annual average declines among 4–<6 (−5.1%) and 6–<12 month (−5.9%) olds. For all age groups, hospitalization rates were relatively stable, but non-hospitalization rates increased (P < 0.05 for all). The case–fatality ratio (CFR) was highest among <2 month olds (1.6%); CFRs decreased over time among <2 and 2–< 4 month olds (P < 0.05 for each). Conclusion Pertussis incidence remains highest among infants aged <4 months, although the age distribution appears to be changing. Decreasing proportions of infants hospitalized may suggest a true decline in disease severity or an increase in reporting of less severe disease. Ongoing monitoring of infant pertussis is needed to better understand the impact of vaccinating pregnant women to prevent pertussis in young infants. Disclosures All authors: No reported disclosures.

scholarly journals Impact of national and regional lockdowns on COVID-19 epidemic waves: Application to the 2020 spring wave in France

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jonathan Roux ◽  
Clément Massonnaud ◽  
Vittoria Colizza ◽  
Simon Cauchemez ◽  
Pascal Crépey
Keyword(s):  
Healthcare System ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
National Level ◽  
List Type ◽  
Slowing Down ◽  
Hospital Resources ◽  
Age Profile ◽  
Almost All ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Pandemic Wave

AbstractBackgroundThe efficacy of national lockdowns to control COVID-19 epidemics has been demonstrated. This study aimed at assessing the impact of national and regional lockdowns, in the context of quickly growing pandemic waves, considering the French first wave of the COVID-19 epidemic as a case study.MethodsWe developed a compartmental epidemic model considering the demographic and age profile of the population of the 13 regions of metropolitan France. We assessed the impact on morbidity, mortality, and hospital resources of simulated national and regional lockdowns starting at different time.ResultsIn a regional lockdown scenario aimed at preventing intensive care units (ICU) saturation in continental France in March 2020, almost all regions would have had to implement a lockdown within 10 days from the actual date of the nationwide implementation. By this date, 97% of ICU capacities would have been used and almost 7000 more lives would have been lost, compared to the March 17 lockdown which limited the mortality burden in hospital to 18 130 deaths. For slowly growing epidemics, with a lower reproduction number, the expected delays between regional lockdowns increases. However, the public health costs associated with these delays tend to grow exponentially with time.ConclusionsIn a quickly growing pandemic wave, defining the timing of lockdowns at a regional rather than national level delays by a few days the implementation of a nationwide lockdown but leads to substantially higher morbi-mortality and stress on the healthcare system.Key messagesIn a quickly growing pandemic wave, defining the timing of lockdowns at a regional level delays the implementation of a nationwide lockdown by a few days, but leads to substantially higher morbi-mortality and stress on the healthcare system.The impact of a delayed regional lockdown greatly depends on the reproduction number in the region, with morbi-mortality costs growing exponentially with the delay.If delayed regional lockdowns are necessary to ensure population acceptability, slowing down the epidemic ahead of the measure may decrease the morbi-mortality associated with this delay.

scholarly journals Excess Deaths associated with the COVID-19 Pandemic in Ukraine in 2020

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Neil K. Mehta ◽  
Ihor Honchar ◽  
Olena Doroshenko ◽  
Igor Brovchenko ◽  
Khrystyna Pak ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Excess Mortality ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
European Countries ◽  
List Type ◽  
Younger Age ◽  
Influenza Activity ◽  
Expected Mortality ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Excess Deaths

AbstractCOVID-19 related mortality has been understudied in Ukraine. As part of a World Bank project, we estimated excess mortality in Ukraine during 2020. Data on all deaths registered in government-controlled Ukraine from 2016-2020 (N=2,946,505) were utilized. We predicted deaths in 2020 by five-year age groups, sex, and month and calculated the number of deaths that deviated from expected levels (excess deaths). We compared excess deaths with the number of recorded COVID-19 deaths on death certificates and with published estimates for 30 European countries. We estimated 38,095 excess deaths in 2020 (6% of all deaths). Death rates were above expected levels in February and from June-December and lower in January and March-May. From June-December, we estimated 52,124 excess deaths with a peak in November (16,891 deaths). COVID-19 recorded deaths were approximately one-third of excess deaths in June-December (18,959 vs. 52,124). Higher than expected mortality was detected for all age groups 40-44 years and above and for those ages 0-4, 15-19, and 20-24. Ukraine’s excess mortality was about average compared to 30 other European countries. Excess deaths may be attributed directly to SARS-COV2 infection or indirectly to death causes associated with social and economic upheavals resulting in from the pandemic. Lower than expected mortality during the early part of 2020 is consistent with low influenza activity and reductions in deaths from restricted movement. Further studies are required to examine the causes of death that have contributed to positive excess mortality, particularly among younger aged groups.Key MessagesUkraine has experienced sizeable changes in its recent demography and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the country’s aggregate mortality patterns is understudiedBased on recent death trends, we found that Ukraine experienced lower than expected mortality during the early part of 2020 and consistently higher than expected mortality from June-December with peak levels occurring in NovemberPositive excess mortality was observed for all age groups beginning at ages 40-44 as well as some younger age groups.

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