scholarly journals Impact of personalized-dose vaccination in Covid-19 with a limited vaccine supply in a 100 day period in the U.S.A.

Author(s):  
Patrick Hunziker

AbstractBackgroundWe aimed at minimizing loss of lives in the Covid-19 pandemic in the USA by identifying optimal vaccination strategies during a 100-day period with limited vaccine supplies. While lethality is highest in the elderly, transmission and case numbers are highest in the younger. A strategy of first vaccinating the elderly is widely used, thought to protect the vulnerable, elderly best. Despite lower immunogenicity in the elderly, mRNA vaccines retain high efficacy, implying that in the younger, reduced vaccine doses might suffice, thereby increasing vaccination counts with a given vaccine supply.MethodsUsing published immunogenicity data of the Moderna mRNA-1273 vaccine, we examined the value of personalized-dose vaccination strategies, using a modeling approach incorporating age-related vaccine immunogenicity, social contact patterns, population structure, Covid-19 case and death rates in the USA in late January 2021. An increase if the number of persons that can be vaccinated and a potential reduction of the individual protective efficacy was accounted for.ResultsAge-personalized dosing strategies reduced cases faster, shortening the pandemic, reducing the delay to reaching <100’000 cases/day from 64 to 30 days and avoiding 25’000 deaths within 100 days in the USA. In an “elderly first” vaccination strategy, mortality is higher even in the elderly. Findings were robust with transmission blocking efficacies of reduced dose vaccination between 30% to 90%, and with a vaccine supply from 1 to 3 million full dose vaccinations per day.ConclusionRapid reduction of Covid-19 case and death rate in the USA in 100 days with a limited vaccine supply is best achieved when personalized, age-tailored dosing for highly effective vaccines is used, according to this vaccination strategy model parameterized to U.S. demographics, Covid-19 transmission and vaccine characteristics. Protecting the vulnerable is most effectively achieved by personalized-dose vaccination of all population segments, while an “elderly first” approach costs more lives, even in the elderly.

2007 ◽  
Vol 21 (spe) ◽  
pp. 29-33 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrew Tawse-Smith

Dental plaque is still considered the main etiological factor for periodontal diseases. Our understanding of periodontal disease has advanced from the previous concepts where gingivitis slowly progressed to periodontitis to a more complex scenario that correlates several risk factors in the pathogenesis of periodontal disease. Among these factors, age has been associated with increased rates of periodontal disease as the population gets older. Although the loss of alveolar bone and periodontal attachment is common in the elderly population, and there is evident age-related changes in the periodontium, severe periodontitis is not a natural consequence of ageing. The importance of identifying the risk factors that participate in the pathogenesis of periodontal disease at an early phase, both of the individual and the disease, as well as evaluating the capacity of the individual to control dental plaque will enable the implementation of an adequate preventive program, where the needs and limitations of the individual are considered to specifically tailor the oral hygiene procedures and the mouthwashes to be used.


2005 ◽  
Vol 17 (3) ◽  
pp. 353-370 ◽  
Author(s):  
Teake P. Ettema ◽  
Rose-Marie Dröes ◽  
Jacomine de Lange ◽  
Marcel E. Ooms ◽  
Gideon J. Mellenbergh ◽  
...  

In order to conceptually define quality of life (QOL) in dementia, the literature on QOL in the elderly population, in chronic disease and in dementia was studied. Dementia is a progressive, age-related, chronic condition and to avoid omissions within the dementia-specific concept of QOL, a broad orientation was the preferred approach in this literature study. Adaptation is a major outcome in studies investigating interventions aimed at improving QOL in chronic conditions, but to date, it has not been used in the definition of QOL. It is argued that adaptation is an important indication of QOL in people with chronic diseases and therefore also in dementia. Some crucial issues in assessing dementia-related QOL that are relevant to clarify the continuing debate on whether QOL, particularly in dementia, can be measured at all, are discussed. Then the following conceptual definition is offered: dementia-specific QOL is the multidimensional evaluation of the person–environment system of the individual, in terms of adaptation to the perceived consequences of the dementia.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xia Wang ◽  
Hulin Wu ◽  
Sanyi Tang

AbstractBackgroundAs the availability of COVID-19 vaccines, it is badly needed to develop vaccination guidelines to prioritize the vaccination delivery in order to effectively stop COVID-19 epidemic and minimize the loss.MethodsWe evaluated the effect of age-specific vaccination strategies on the number of infections and deaths using an SEIR model, considering the age structure and social contact patterns for different age groups for each of different countries.ResultsIn general, the vaccination priority should be given to those younger people who are active in social contacts to minimize the number of infections; while the vaccination priority should be given to the elderly to minimize the number of deaths. But this principle may not always apply when the interaction of age structure and age-specific social contact patterns is complicated. Partially reopening schools, workplaces or households, the vaccination priority may need to be adjusted accordingly.ConclusionsPrematurely reopening social contacts could initiate a new outbreak or even a new pandemic out of control if the vaccination rate and the detection rate are not high enough. Our result suggests that it requires at least nine months of vaccination before fully reopening social contacts in order to avoid a new pandemic.


Vaccines ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (3) ◽  
pp. 344
Author(s):  
Silvia Cocchio ◽  
Tolinda Gallo ◽  
Stefania Del Zotto ◽  
Elena Clagnan ◽  
Andrea Iob ◽  
...  

Influenza and its complications are an important public health concern, and vaccination remains the most effective prevention measure. However, the efficacy of vaccination depends on several variables, including the type of strategy adopted. The goal of this study was to assess the impact of different influenza vaccination strategies in preventing hospitalizations for influenza and its related respiratory complications. A retrospective cohort study was conducted on data routinely collected by the health services for six consecutive influenza seasons, considering the population aged 65 years or more at the time of their vaccination and living in northeastern Italy. Our analysis concerns 987,266 individuals vaccinated against influenza during the study period. The sample was a mean 78.0 ± 7.7 years old, and 5681 individuals (0.58%) were hospitalized for potentially influenza-related reasons. The hospitalization rate tended to increase over the years, not-significantly peaking in the 2016–2017 flu season (0.8%). Our main findings revealed that hospitalizations related to seasonal respiratory diseases were reduced as the use of the enhanced vaccine increased (R2 = 0.5234; p < 0.001). Multivariate analysis confirmed the significantly greater protective role of the enhanced vaccine over the conventional vaccination strategy, with adjusted Odds Ratio (adj OR) = 0.62 (95% CI: 0.59–0.66). A prior flu vaccination also had a protective role (adj OR: 0.752 (95% CI: 0.70–0.81)). Age, male sex, and H3N2 mismatch were directly associated with a higher risk of hospitalization for pneumonia. In the second part of our analysis, comparing MF59-adjuvanted trivalent inactivated vaccine (MF59-TIV) with conventional vaccines, we considered 479,397 individuals, of which 3176 (0.66%) were admitted to a hospital. The results show that using the former vaccine reduced the risk of hospitalization by 33% (adj OR: 0.67 (95% CI: 0.59–0.75)). This study contributes to the body of evidence of a greater efficacy of enhanced vaccines, and MF59-adjuvanted TIV in particular, over conventional vaccination strategies in the elderly.


Genes ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (5) ◽  
pp. 403 ◽  
Author(s):  
Paolina Crocco ◽  
Alberto Montesanto ◽  
Serena Dato ◽  
Silvana Geracitano ◽  
Francesca Iannone ◽  
...  

Xenobiotic-metabolizing enzymes (XME) mediate the body’s response to potentially harmful compounds of exogenous/endogenous origin to which individuals are exposed during their lifetime. Aging adversely affects such responses, making the elderly more susceptible to toxics. Of note, XME genetic variability was found to impact the ability to cope with xenobiotics and, consequently, disease predisposition. We hypothesized that the variability of these genes influencing the interaction with the exposome could affect the individual chance of becoming long-lived. We tested this hypothesis by screening a cohort of 1112 individuals aged 20–108 years for 35 variants in 23 XME genes. Four variants in different genes (CYP2B6/rs3745274-G/T, CYP3A5/rs776746-G/A, COMT/rs4680-G/A and ABCC2/rs2273697-G/A) differently impacted the longevity phenotype. In particular, the highest impact was observed in the age group 65–89 years, known to have the highest incidence of age-related diseases. In fact, genetic variability of these genes we found to account for 7.7% of the chance to survive beyond the age of 89 years. Results presented herein confirm that XME genes, by mediating the dynamic and the complex gene–environment interactions, can affect the possibility to reach advanced ages, pointing to them as novel genes for future studies on genetic determinants for age-related traits.


PLoS ONE ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (12) ◽  
pp. e0261236
Author(s):  
Cong Yang ◽  
Yali Yang ◽  
Yang Li

In the past year, the global epidemic situation is still not optimistic, showing a trend of continuous expansion. With the research and application of vaccines, there is an urgent need to develop some optimal vaccination strategies. How to make a reasonable vaccination strategy to determine the priority of vaccination under the limited vaccine resources to control the epidemic and reduce human casualties? We build a dynamic model with vaccination which is extended the classical SEIR model. By fitting the epidemic data of three countries—China, Brazil, Indonesia, we have evaluated age-specific vaccination strategy for the number of infections and deaths. Furthermore, we have evaluated the impact of age-specific vaccination strategies on the number of the basic reproduction number. At last, we also have evaluated the different age structure of the vaccination priority. It shows that giving priority to vaccination of young people can control the number of infections, while giving priority to vaccination of the elderly can greatly reduce the number of deaths in most cases. Furthermore, we have found that young people should be mainly vaccinated to reduce the number of infections. When the emphasis is on reducing the number of deaths, it is important to focus vaccination on the elderly. Simulations suggest that appropriate age-specific vaccination strategies can effectively control the epidemic, both in terms of the number of infections and deaths.


2021 ◽  
Vol 2 ◽  
Author(s):  
Norihide Jo ◽  
Rui Zhang ◽  
Hideki Ueno ◽  
Takuya Yamamoto ◽  
Daniela Weiskopf ◽  
...  

Age is a major risk factor for COVID-19 severity, and T cells play a central role in anti-SARS-CoV-2 immunity. Because SARS-CoV-2-cross-reactive T cells have been detected in unexposed individuals, we investigated the age-related differences in pre-existing SARS-CoV-2-reactive T cells. SARS-CoV-2-reactive CD4+ T cells from young and elderly individuals were mainly detected in the central memory fraction and exhibited similar functionalities and numbers. Naïve-phenotype SARS-CoV-2-reactive CD8+ T cell populations decreased markedly in the elderly, while those with terminally differentiated and senescent phenotypes increased. Furthermore, senescent SARS-CoV-2-reactive CD8+ T cell populations were higher in cytomegalovirus seropositive young individuals compared to seronegative ones. Our findings suggest that age-related differences in pre-existing SARS-CoV-2-reactive CD8+ T cells may explain the poor outcomes in elderly patients and that cytomegalovirus infection is a potential factor affecting CD8+ T cell immunity against SARS-CoV-2. Thus, this study provides insights for developing effective therapeutic and vaccination strategies for the elderly.


Author(s):  
Barbara Collins ◽  
Andrée Tellier

ABSTRACTAge-related changes in the capacity for cognitive flexibility should be considered in social planning for the expanding elderly population and in the functional assessment of the individual geriatric patient. Current means for assessing conceptual flexibility are not particularly appropriate for use with the elderly. In the current study, a briefer and more tolerable measure of conceptual flexibility was derived from the Visual Verbal Test (VVT). This index correlated significantly with the number of perseverative errors but not the number of nonperseverative errors on the Wisconsin Card Sorting Test (WCST), attesting to its validity as a specific measure of the ability to shift mental set. A significant relationship between age and both this VVT measure of conceptual shift and the number of perseverative errors on the WCST was observed in a sample of 60 healthy elderly volunteers between the ages of 55 and 84, suggesting that cognitive flexibility is indeed negatively associated with age.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mathew K Jacob ◽  
Eva Xueyao Guo

Background: With the innovation of vaccines to fight against the COVID-19 pandemic, following an effective vaccination strategy is crucial in mitigating deaths and hospitalizations and offering the greatest protection to a community or locality within the early months of vaccine-availability, when resources may be scarce. By using a novel agent-based periodic mobility model that captures periodic movement, which attempts to model human movement patterns, super spreaders, and ICU hospitalizations, this study attempts to find the best strategy for vaccinating individuals to mitigate the damage of COVID-19. Results: This study found that a vaccination strategy that first vaccinates the elderly would be most effective at mitigating deaths and lowering the ICU hospitalization peak during the first two months of vaccine rollout. Conclusion: For communities that are early in their vaccine campaign or that have limited resources for vaccination, we recommend that they prioritize vaccinating the elderly who are more susceptible to COVID-19 first.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nicolas Franco ◽  
Pietro Coletti ◽  
Lander Willem ◽  
Leonardo Angeli ◽  
Adrien Lajot ◽  
...  

Several important aspects related to SARS-CoV-2 transmission are not well known due to a lack of appropriate data. However, mathematical and computational tools can be used to extract part of this information from the available data, like some hidden age-related characteristics. In this paper, we investigate age-specific differences in susceptibility to and infectiousness upon contracting SARS-CoV-2 infection. More specifically, we use panel-based social contact data from diary-based surveys conducted in Belgium combined with the next generation principle to infer the relative incidence and we compare this to real-life incidence data. Comparing these two allows for the estimation of age-specific transmission parameters. Our analysis implies the susceptibility in children to be around half of the susceptibility in adults, and even lower for very young children (preschooler). However, the probability of adults and the elderly to contract the infection is decreasing throughout the vaccination campaign, thereby modifying the picture over time.


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