scholarly journals CoMix: Changes in social contacts as measured by the contact survey during the 1 COVID-19 pandemic in England between March 2020 and March 2021

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Amy Gimma ◽  
James D Munday ◽  
Kerry LM Wong ◽  
Pietro Coletti ◽  
Kevin van Zandvoort ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Negative Binomial ◽  
Virus Transmission ◽  
School Age Children ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Social Contacts ◽  
Contact Patterns ◽  
The Mean ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Impact

Background: During the COVID-19 pandemic, the UK government imposed public health policies in England to reduce social contacts in hopes of curbing virus transmission. We measured contact patterns weekly from March 2020 to March 2021 to estimate the impact of these policies, covering three national lockdowns interspersed by periods of lower restrictions. Methods: Data were collected using online surveys of representative samples of the UK population by age and gender. We calculated the mean daily contacts reported using a (clustered) bootstrap and fitted a censored negative binomial model to estimate age-stratified contact matrices and estimate proportional changes to the basic reproduction number under controlled conditions using the change in contacts as a scaling factor. Results: The survey recorded 101,350 observations from 19,914 participants who reported 466,710 contacts over 53 weeks. Contact patterns changed over time and by participants' age, personal risk factors, and perception of risk. The mean of reported contacts among adults have reduced compared to previous surveys with adults aged 18 to 59 reporting a mean of 2.39 (95% CI 2.20 - 2.60) contacts to 4.93 (95% CI 4.65 - 5.19) contacts, and the mean contacts for school-age children was 3.07 (95% CI 2.89 - 3.27) to 15.11 (95% CI 13.87 - 16.41). The use of face coverings outside the home has remained high since the government mandated use in some settings in July 2020. Conclusions: The CoMix survey provides a unique longitudinal data set for a full year since the first lockdown for use in statistical analyses and mathematical modelling of COVID-19 and other diseases. Recorded contacts reduced dramatically compared to pre-pandemic levels, with changes correlated to government interventions throughout the pandemic. Despite easing of restrictions in the summer of 2020, mean reported contacts only returned to about half of that observed pre-pandemic.

Mandate matters: evaluating the effects of electoral mandates in Western Europe

2021 ◽  
pp. 113-141
Author(s):  
Emiliano Grossman ◽  
Isabelle Guinaudeau
Keyword(s):  
Agenda Setting ◽  
Western Europe ◽  
Negative Binomial ◽  
Party Manifestos ◽  
Legislative Agenda ◽  
Clarity Of Responsibility ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Government Coalition

This chapter explores the implications of mandate theories of democracy through the lens of agenda-setting, looking at the impact of priorities emphasized in party manifestos on the legislative agenda. It examines the respective impact of the priorities in the manifesto of the party of the prime minister, the parties in the government coalition (where applicable), and all parliamentary parties (systemic attention). Using panel negative binomial regressions of legislative and electoral priorities, the conclusion is that mandate priorities do affect government policies to a greater extent than scholarship has so far acknowledged. And this does not seem to have changed over time. The agenda-setting impact of mandates is supported by qualitative observations on promises and policy in France and Germany. The only exception to this effect is the UK, which is surprising in view of arguments on institutional capacity, clarity of responsibility, and enhanced accountability in majoritarian systems—a paradox examined in Chapter 7.

scholarly journals Estimating the effect of the 2005 change in BCG policy in England: A retrospective cohort study

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sam Abbott ◽  
Hannah Christensen ◽  
Nicky Welton ◽  
Ellen Brooks-Pollock
Keyword(s):  
High Risk ◽  
Negative Binomial ◽  
Labour Force ◽  
Incidence Rates ◽  
School Age Children ◽  
List Type ◽  
School Age ◽  
Bcg Vaccination ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Impact

ABSTRACTBackgroundIn 2005, England changed from universal Bacillus Calmette–Guérin (BCG) vaccination of school-age children to targeted BCG vaccination of high-risk children at birth.MethodsWe combined notification data from the Enhanced Tuberculosis Surveillance system, with demographic data from the Labour Force Survey to construct retrospective cohorts of individuals in England relevant to both the universal, and targeted vaccination programmes between Jan 1, 2000 and Dec 31, 2010. For each cohort, we estimated incidence rates over a 5 year follow-up period and used Poisson and Negative Binomial regression models in order to estimate the impact of the change in policy on TB.ResultsIn the non-UK born, we found evidence for an association between a reduction in incidence rates and the change in BCG policy (school-age IRR: 0.74 (95%CI 0.61, 0.88), neonatal IRR: 0.62 (95%CI 0.44, 0.88)). We found some evidence that the change in BCG policy was associated with a increase in incidence rates in the UK born school-age population (IRR: 1.08 (95%CI 0.97, 1.19)) and weaker evidence of an association with a reduction in incidence rates in UK born neonates (IRR: 0.96 (95%CI 0.82, 1.14)). Overall, we found that the change in BCG policy was associated with directly preventing 385 (95% CI −105, 881) TB cases.ConclusionsWithdrawing universal vaccination at school-age and targeting BCG vaccination towards high-risk neonates was associated with reduced incidence of TB in England. This was largely driven by reductions in the non-UK born. There was a slight increase in UK born school-age cases.Key MessagesThere is little existing literature on the impact of withdrawing universal school-age BCG vaccination and introducing high-risk neonatal BCG vaccination on TB incidence rates in the populations directly affected by the vaccination programmes.There was strong evidence that the change in policy was associated with a decrease in TB incidence rates in non-UK born neonates and school-age children. In the UK born individuals, there was some evidence that the change in policy was associated with an increase in TB incidence rates in those relevant to the universal school-age scheme, with little evidence of a decrease in incidence rates in those relevant to the high-risk neonatal vaccination scheme.Overall the change in vaccination policy was associated with preventing TB cases, mainly in the non-UK born.These results provide an important evaluation of the direct effects of both withdrawing and implementing a BCG vaccination programme in a low incidence, high income, country and are relevant to several other countries that have made similar changes to their vaccination programmes.

scholarly journals The differential impact of physical distancing strategies on social contacts relevant for the spread of COVID-19: Evidence from a multi-country survey

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Emanuele Del Fava ◽  
Jorge Cimentada ◽  
Daniela Perrotta ◽  
André Grow ◽  
Francesco Rampazzo ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Disease Transmission ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Social Contact ◽  
The United States ◽  
Social Contacts ◽  
Contact Patterns ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Facebook Advertising ◽  
Net Reproduction ◽  
The Impact

AbstractPhysical distancing measures are intended to mitigate the spread of COVID-19, even though their impact on social contacts and disease transmission remains unclear. Obtaining timely data on social contact patterns can help to assess the impact of such protective measures. We conducted an online opt-in survey based on targeted Facebook advertising campaigns across seven European countries (Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, Netherlands, Spain, United Kingdom (UK)) and the United States (US), achieving a sample of 53,708 questionnaires in the period March 13–April 13, 2020. Post-stratification weights were produced to correct for biases. Data on social contact numbers, as well as on protective behaviour and perceived level of threat were collected and used to the expected net reproduction number by week, Rt, with respect to pre-pandemic data. Compared to social contacts reported prior to COVID-19, in mid-April daily social contact numbers had decreased between 49% in Germany and 83% in Italy, ranging from below three contacts per day in France, Spain, and the UK up to four in Germany and the Netherlands. Such reductions were sufficient to bring Rt to one or even below in all countries, except Germany. Evidence from the US and the UK showed that the number of daily social contacts mainly decreased after governments issued the first physical distancing guidelines. Finally, although contact numbers decreased uniformly across age groups, older adults reported the lowest numbers of contacts, indicating higher levels of protection. We provided a comparable set of statistics on social contact patterns during the COVID-19 pandemic for eight high-income countries, disaggregated by week. As these estimates offer a more grounded alternative to the theoretical assumptions often used in epidemiological models, the scientific community could draw on this information for developing more realistic epidemic models of COVID-19.

scholarly journals How is the COVID-19 lockdown impacting the mental health of parents of school-age children in the UK? A cross-sectional online survey

BMJ Open ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (5) ◽  
pp. e043397
Author(s):  
Austen El-Osta ◽  
Aos Alaa ◽  
Iman Webber ◽  
Eva Riboli Sasco ◽  
Emmanouil Bagkeris ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Mental Health ◽  
Physical Activity ◽  
Social Isolation ◽  
Online Survey ◽  
Female Gender ◽  
School Age Children ◽  
School Age ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Impact

ObjectiveInvestigate the impact of the COVID-19 lockdown on feelings of loneliness and social isolation in parents of school-age children.DesignCross-sectional online survey of parents of primary and secondary school-age children.SettingCommunity setting.Participants1214 parents of school-age children in the UK.MethodsAn online survey explored the impact of lockdown on the mental health of parents with school-age children, and in particular about feelings of social isolation and loneliness. Associations between the UCLA Three-Item Loneliness Scale (UCLATILS), the Direct Measure of Loneliness (DMOL) and the characteristics of the study participants were assessed using ordinal logistic regression models.Main outcome measuresSelf-reported measures of social isolation and loneliness using UCLATILS and DMOL.ResultsHalf of respondents felt they lacked companionship, 45% had feelings of being left out, 58% felt isolated and 46% felt lonely during the first 100 days of lockdown. The factors that were associated with higher levels of loneliness on UCLATILS were female gender, parenting a child with special needs, lack of a dedicated space for distance learning, disruption of sleep patterns and low levels of physical activity during the lockdown. Factors associated with a higher DMOL were female gender, single parenting, parenting a child with special needs, unemployment, low physical activity, lack of a dedicated study space and disruption of sleep patterns during the lockdown.ConclusionsThe COVID-19 lockdown has increased feelings of social isolation and loneliness among parents of school-age children. The sustained adoption of two modifiable health-seeking lifestyle behaviours (increased levels of physical activity and the maintenance of good sleep hygiene practices) wmay help reduce feelings of social isolation and loneliness during lockdown.

The RUMA Alliance targets: an overview

Livestock ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 26 (4) ◽  
pp. 176-179
Author(s):  
Chris Lloyd
Keyword(s):  
Task Force ◽  
Animal Health ◽  
Antibiotic Use ◽  
Codes Of Practice ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Ongoing Support ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Insight Into ◽  
Roll Out

The Responsible Use of Medicines in Agriculture Alliance (RUMA) was established to promote the highest standards of food safety, animal health and animal welfare in the British livestock industry. It has a current focus to deliver on the Government objective of identifying sector-specific targets for the reduction, refinement or replacement of antibiotics in animal agriculture. The creation and roll out of sector specific targets in 2017 through the RUMA Targets Task Force, has helped focus activity across the UK livestock sectors to achieve a 50% reduction in antibiotic use since 2014. This has been realised principally through voluntary multi-sector collaboration, cross sector initiatives, codes of practice, industry body support and farm assurance schemes. This article provides an overview of RUMA's work to date providing insight into the methods used to create the targets, why they are so important, the impact they are having and how ongoing support and robust data are vital components in achieving the latest set of targets.

scholarly journals Environmental Change Threatens Freshwater Insect Communities in Northwest Africa: A Meta-Analysis

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nils Kaczmarek ◽  
Ralf B. Schäfer ◽  
Elisabeth Berger
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Temperature ◽  
Negative Binomial ◽  
Small Body ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Insect Communities ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Temperature Conductivity ◽  
Northwest Africa ◽  
The Impact

A climatic shift from temperate to arid conditions is predicted for Northwest Africa. Water temperature, salinity, and river intermittency are likely to increase, which may impact freshwater communities, ecosystem functioning, and related ecosystem services. Quantitative data and information on the impact of climate change on insect communities (e.g., richness, taxonomic and trait composition) are still scarce for Northwest Africa. In this study, we extracted information on freshwater insect occurrence and environmental variables in Northwest Africa from the results of a literature search to study potential consequences of changing climatic conditions for these communities. Our data set covered 96 families in 165 sites in Morocco and Algeria. We quantified the impact of several explanatoryvariables (climate, altitude, water temperature, conductivity, intermittency, flow, aridity, dams, and land cover) on richness, taxonomic and functional trait composition using negative binomial regression models and constrained ordination. Family richness in arid sites was on average 37 % lower than in temperate sites in association with flow, river regulation, cropland extent, conductivity, altitude, and water temperature. With 36 % of the studied temperate sites predicted to turn arid by the end of the century, a loss of insect families can be predicted for Northwest Africa, mainly affecting species adapted to temperate environments. Resistance and resilience traits such as small body size, aerial dispersal, and air breathing promote survival in arid climates. Future research should report insect occurrences on species level to allow for better predictions on climate change effects.

Modelling patterns of parasite aggregation in natural populations: trichostrongylid nematode–ruminant interactions as a case study

Parasitology ◽  
1995 ◽  
Vol 111 (S1) ◽  
pp. S135-S151 ◽  
Author(s):  
B. T. Grenfell ◽  
K. Wilson ◽  
V. S. Isham ◽  
H. E. G. Boyd ◽  
K. Dietz
Keyword(s):  
Population Biology ◽  
Negative Binomial ◽  
Natural Populations ◽  
Parasite Load ◽  
Host Immunity ◽  
Moment Closure ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Parasite Aggregation ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship

SUMMARYThe characteristically aggregated frequency distribution of macroparasites in their hosts is a key feature of host–parasite population biology. We begin with a brief review of the theoretical literature concerning parasite aggregation. Though this work has illustrated much about both the sources and impact of parasite aggregation, there is still no definitive analysis of both these aspects. We then go on to illustrate the use of one approach to this problem – the construction of Moment Closure Equations (MCEs), which can be used to represent both the mean and second moments (variances and covariances) of the distribution of different parasite stages and phenomenological measures of host immunity. We apply these models to one of the best documented interactions involving free-living animal hosts – the interaction between trichostrongylid nematodes and ruminants. The analysis compares patterns of variability in experimental infections of Teladorsagia circumcincta in sheep with the equivalent wildlife situation – the epidemiology of T. circumcincta in a feral population of Soay sheep on St Kilda, Outer Hebrides. We focus on the relationship between mean parasite load and aggregation (inversely measured by the negative binomial parameter, k) for cohorts of hosts. The analysis and empirical data indicate that k tracks the increase and subsequent decline in the mean burden with host age. We discuss this result in terms of the degree of heterogeneity in the impact of host immunity or parasite-induced mortality required to shorten the tail of the parasite distribution (and therefore increase k) in older animals. The model is also used to analyse the relationship between estimated worm and egg counts (since only the latter are often available for wildlife hosts). Finally, we use these results to review directions for future work on the nature and impact of parasite aggregation.

Bicameralism and government formation: does bicameral incongruence affect bargaining delays?

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (4) ◽  
pp. 469-484
Author(s):  
Daniela Giannetti ◽  
Andrea Pedrazzani ◽  
Luca Pinto
Keyword(s):  
Eastern European ◽  
Government Formation ◽  
Bargaining Process ◽  
Additional Element ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Coalition Governments ◽  
Relevant Role ◽  
The Government ◽  
Control Hypothesis ◽  
The Impact

AbstractThe effects of bicameral legislatures on government formation have attracted scholarly attention since Lijphart’s (1984) seminal contribution. Previous research found support for the ‘veto control hypothesis,’ showing that bicameralism affects coalition governments’ composition and duration. However, the effects of bicameralism on the duration of the bargaining process over government formation have yet to be explored. Our work contributes to this area of research by focusing on the impact of bicameralism on bargaining delays. We show that the duration of the bargaining process over government formation decreases at increasing levels of partisan incongruence of the two chambers, especially in those legislative assemblies in which the upper chamber plays a relevant role in the policy-making process. Such empirical evidence is in contrast with the conventional expectation according to which bicameralism should delay the government formation process, as it introduces an additional element of complexity in the bargaining environment. We test our hypothesis by using a novel data set about the partisan composition of upper and lower chambers in 12 Western and Eastern European democracies over the postwar period.

scholarly journals Customer reactions to a webshop’s service quality

Empirica ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 47 (4) ◽  
pp. 699-731
Author(s):  
Franz Hackl ◽  
Rudolf Winter-Ebmer
Keyword(s):  
Service Quality ◽  
Negative Binomial ◽  
Negative Binomial Regression ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Product Categories ◽  
Service Characteristics ◽  
Binomial Regression ◽  
Quality Aspects ◽  
Quality Dimensions ◽  
The Impact

Abstract E-commerce has become an integral part of the world’s economy. In this study we investigate the impact of service quality in e-tailing on site visits and consumer demand. Such an analysis is important given the almost Bertrand-like competitive structure. Our analysis is based on a large representative data set obtained from a price comparison site covering essentially the complete Austrian e-tailing market. Customer evaluations for a broad range of 15 different service characteristics are condensed using factor analysis. Negative binomial regression analysis is used to measure the impact of service quality dimensions on referral requests to online shops for different product categories. Our results show that the most important service quality aspects are those related to the ordering process and the firm’s website performance.

UK Fiscal Prospects

2010 ◽  
Vol 213 ◽  
pp. F66-F70 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ray Barrell ◽  
Simon Kirby
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Radical Change ◽  
Policy Framework ◽  
Budget Process ◽  
Spare Capacity ◽  
Intention To Move ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship

The UK is restructuring the fiscal policy framework once again, with an intention to move toward independent assessment and forecasting in the budget process. At the same time a large-scale, if delayed, fiscal consolidation is planned at a time when there is significant spare capacity in the economy. Economic growth is also projected to be below trend, at least this year and perhaps next. It is unusual to see a fiscal tightening when the output gap appears to be widening. These policy settings should be seen in the context of the most radical change in the nature of the relationship between the government and the economy for at least thirty years. This note assesses the impact of the new programme on the economy as well as setting out a projection for the medium-term public finances.

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