scholarly journals Skilful decadal-scale prediction of fish habitat and distribution shifts

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mark R. Payne ◽  
Anna K. Miesner ◽  
Noel Keenlyside ◽  
Shuting Yang ◽  
Stephen G. Yeager ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Fish Habitat ◽  
Correlation Coefficients ◽  
Lead Times ◽  
Fishing Rights ◽  
Atlantic Mackerel ◽  
Decadal Scale ◽  
Distribution Shifts ◽  
And Coping ◽  
First Time ◽  
Marine Climate

Many fish and marine organisms are responding to our planet's changing climate by shifting their distribution (i.e. where they are found). Such shifts can drive conflicts at the international scale and are highly problematic for the communities and businesses that depend on these living marine resources for income and nutrition. Advances in climate prediction mean that in some regions the state of the ocean, and thereby the drivers of these shifts, can be skilfully forecast up to a decade ahead. However, the potential for these forecasts to benefit ocean-dependent communities has yet to be realised. Here we show for the first time that marine climate predictions can be used to generate decadal-scale forecasts of shifts in the habitat and distribution of marine fish species, as exemplified by Atlantic mackerel, bluefin tuna and blue whiting. We show statistically significant forecast skill of individual years that outperform both persistence and climatological baseline forecasts for lead times of 3-10 years: multi-year averages perform even better, yielding correlation coefficients in excess of 0.90 in some cases. We also show that the habitat shifts underling recent conflicts over Atlantic mackerel fishing rights could have been foreseen on similar timescales. Our results show that climate predictions can be translated into information directly relevant to stakeholders and we anticipate that this tool will be critical in foreseeing, adapting to and coping with the challenges of a changing and variable future climate, particularly in the most ocean-dependent nations and communities.

Evaluation of Precipitation Forecast from Global Forecast System Over Transboundary Rivers in Africa

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Haowen Yue ◽  
Mekonnen Gebremichael
Keyword(s):  
Correlation Coefficients ◽  
Precipitation Forecast ◽  
Nile River ◽  
Lead Times ◽  
General Tendency ◽  
Global Forecast System ◽  
Forecast System ◽  
Transboundary River Basins ◽  
Unbiased Estimates ◽  
Good Agreement

<p>This study evaluates the short-to-medium range precipitation forecasts from Global Forecast System for 14 major transboundary river basins in Africa against GPM IMERG “Early”, IMERG “Final”, and CHIRPSv2 products. Daily precipitation forecasts with lead times of 1-day, 5-day, 10-day, and 15-day and accumulated precipitation forecasts with periods of 1-day, 5-day, 10-day, and 15-day are investigated. The 14 selected basins are (1) Senegal; (2) Volta; (3) Niger; (4) Chad; (5) Nile; (6) Awash; (7) Congo; (8) Omo Gibe; (9) Tana; (10) Pangani; (11) Zambezi; (12) Okavango; (13) Limpopo and (14) Orange. For each basin, several sub-basins are defined by the major dams in the basin. Our preliminary results in the Nile river basin show that in terms of temporal variability, there was a good agreement between the forecasted and observed accumulated precipitation on a 15-day basis. When compared to IMERG “Final”, the correlation coefficients of accumulated GFS forecasts scored as high as 0.75. Thus, GFS products provide relatively reliable accumulated precipitation forecasts. However, the precipitation forecasts were mostly biased: they tend to overpredict rainfall for the eastern part of the Nile river, underestimate rainfall for the northern part of the Nile river and produce almost unbiased estimates for the southern part of the river. Additionally, GFS forecasts have a general tendency to underpredict the area of precipitation across the Nile basin. Although the performance of GFS varies at different locations, the GFS precipitation forecasts can be a good reference to dam operators in Africa. </p>

scholarly journals Prediction of local geomagnetic activity on the example of data of “Lviv” Magnetic Observatory

2021 ◽  
Vol 27 (1) ◽  
pp. 78-84
Author(s):  
D.I. Vlasov ◽  
◽  
A.S. Parnowski ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Predictive Models ◽  
Lead Time ◽  
Measurement Data ◽  
Correlation Coefficients ◽  
Skill Score ◽  
Magnetic Observatory ◽  
Using Data ◽  
First Time ◽  
Prediction Efficiency ◽  
Main Center

For the first time in world practice, predictive models were constructed for X, Y, Z geomagnetic elements. Based on these models, the prediction was made with 3 hours lead time using data of the “Lviv” magnetic observatory. The properties of models are as follows: observatory — LVV, рredicted values — XYZ; lead time — 3 hours; correlation coefficients’ averaged measurement data — 0.824 (X), 0.811 (Y), 0.804 (Z); prediction efficiency — 0.816 (X), 0.803 (Y), 0.801 (Z); skill score — 0.115 (X), 0.095 (Y), 0.099 (Z). The developed models were tested in the Main Center of Special Monitoring, and they were found to meet the Basic Requirements for operational predictive models.

The Multiply Injured versus the First-Time-Injured Athlete during Rehabilitation: A Comparison of Nonphysical Characteristics

1996 ◽  
Vol 5 (4) ◽  
pp. 293-304 ◽  
Author(s):  
Urban Johnson
Keyword(s):  
Convincing Evidence ◽  
Physiological Factors ◽  
Self Confidence ◽  
Rehabilitation Period ◽  
Mood Scale ◽  
High Level ◽  
And Coping ◽  
First Time ◽  
Athlete Injury ◽  
Injured Athletes

Research on rehabilitation of multiply injured athletes shows no convincing evidence that physiological factors exclusively can explain injury-proneness in sport. Neither can any single psychological factor characterize the injury-prone athlete. Injury-proneness seems to be best explained by a complex web of extrinsic and intrinsic risk factors. The present study focused on a comparison of mental factors and coping strategies of high-level athletes with sport injuries. A psychological profile of 25 multiply injured athletes was compared to 14 first-time seriously injured athletes. Factors such as impulsiveness, risk-taking attitude, introaggression, and psychic anxiety did not differentiate multiply injured athletes from other athletes with injuries. The first-time-injured group, however, had psychological difficulties associated with long-term injuries or other serious life crises. The first-time-injured athletes tended to experience the rehabilitation period as stressful, and they showed less self-confidence and scored lower on an overall mood scale than the multiply injured athletes.

scholarly journals The well correlated diffuse interstellar bands at λλ 6196, 6614 Å and their possible companions

2020 ◽  
Vol 496 (2) ◽  
pp. 2231-2240
Author(s):  
A Bondar
Keyword(s):  
Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons ◽  
High Resolution ◽  
Aromatic Hydrocarbons ◽  
Correlation Coefficients ◽  
High Signal ◽  
Signal To Noise ◽  
B Stars ◽  
Diffuse Interstellar Bands ◽  
Polycyclic Aromatic ◽  
First Time

ABSTRACT Considered here is the interrelation between five diffuse interstellar bands (DIBs), λλ 5545, 6113, 6196, 6445 and 6614 Å. Two DIBs (λλ 6196 and 6614 Å) are already known as being well correlated with each other; their relation with three other weaker bands is investigated for the first time. To accomplish this task, high-resolution spectra (λ/δλ ≈100 000) with high signal-to-noise ratios (S/N) of 54 hot O–B stars with reddening 0.12–1.45 mag were used. Analysis of measured equivalent widths has allowed us to establish linear dependences and evaluate linear correlation coefficients as high as 0.968–0.988 between the intensities of these five DIBs. Such a degree of correlation may indicate their common origin. Several spacings in wavenumbers found between these DIBs correspond to the energies of vibrational transitions in some polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons resulting in IR emissions at λλ 16.4, 11.3, 7.7, 6.2 and 3.3 μm.

Early Infant Temperament and Maternal Expectations Related to Maternal Adaptation

1990 ◽  
Vol 13 (2) ◽  
pp. 199-214 ◽  
Author(s):  
Berit Hagekull ◽  
Gunilla Bohlin
Keyword(s):  
Goodness Of Fit ◽  
Stress And Coping ◽  
Interactive Effects ◽  
Infant Temperament ◽  
Role Satisfaction ◽  
Early Infant ◽  
Maternal Adaptation ◽  
And Coping ◽  
Maternal Expectations ◽  
First Time

The contribution to an explanation of early maternal adaptation by mothers' expectations for child behaviour as compared to their descriptions of infant temperament was investigated within the framework of a goodness of fit model (Lerner & Lerner, 1983). Analyses were made separately for primiparas (n = 45) and multiparas (n = 74). Expectations and temperament were measured for the dimensions of regularity, approach-withdrawal and manageability with questionnaires completed at infant age 6 weeks (expectations) and 4 months (temperament). Data on maternal adaptation (role satisfaction, irritability, stress, and coping) were obtained in interviews shortly after the temperament questionnaire was completed and at infant age 10 months (role satisfaction). The results showed that descriptions of actual temperament were more predictive of adaptational experiences than were mothers' expectations. Infant temperament, especially the dimensions of manageability and regularity, was more important for multiparous mothers than for first-time mothers. The interactive effects predicted from the good-ness of fit model were not found. The results were discussed from the perspective of the different situations prevailing for first-time and multiparous mothers.

scholarly journals Drop Size Distribution and Lightning Manifestations in AMMA-CATH Area

2021 ◽  
Vol 19 ◽  
pp. 204-216
Author(s):  
Adéchinan A. Joseph ◽  
Moumouni Sounmaïla ◽  
Guédjé K. François ◽  
Houngninou B. Etienne
Keyword(s):  
Size Distribution ◽  
Drop Size ◽  
Correlation Coefficients ◽  
Drop Size Distribution ◽  
Monsoon Period ◽  
Tropical Area ◽  
Lightning Detection ◽  
Distribution Parameters ◽  
First Time ◽  
The Relationship

This paper analyses for the first time in tropical area, the relationship between lightning and DSD (Drop Size Distribution) parameters on rainy events that occurred during the monsoon period. The Lightning data used are collected by the LINET (Lightning Detection Network) while the DSD data were recorded by a distrometer. The correlation was computed within five circles of radius varying between  to  with a step of . These consecutive areas are centered on the position of the disdrometer. By taking into account only the convective spectra and remove out of the data the cases where there is rain without any lightning and vice versa, all data was computed with a time scale of one minute during each of the rainy events .The results showed that the exponential and polynomial laws fit better our data than the power and linear laws. The highest correlation coefficients are obtained within a radius of about 20 km around the distrometer location. The correlation between the parameter  and  is the most stable with a correlation coefficient equal to .

scholarly journals Changes in the hydrochemical regime of Onegо Lake since the early 1990s

2019 ◽  
pp. 62-72 ◽  
Author(s):  
N. M. Kalinkina ◽  
E. V. Tekanova ◽  
A. V. Sabylina ◽  
A. V. Ryzhakov
Keyword(s):  
Organic Matter ◽  
River Water ◽  
Ph Value ◽  
Correlation Coefficients ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Allochthonous Organic Matter ◽  
Hydrochemical Regime ◽  
First Time ◽  
Liquid Precipitation

The supply of allochthonous organic matter with river water to the lakes rises in the new climatic conditions of Karelia (mild winters, an increase in the amount of liquid precipitation, less freezing of the soil). In connection with the geochemical peculiarities of Fennoscandia, more quantity of humic substances in a complex with iron and phosphorus enter the water bodies. These processes can lead to a change in the hydrochemical regime, water quality and habitat of the biota. For the first time for lakes of Karelia, long-term changes (1963–2017) of parameters, which are markers of allochthonous organic matter, were estimated on the example of Petrozavodsk Bay of Onego Lake. It was found that since the 1990s, the following characteristics significantly increase in Petrozavodsk Bay water: the color of water (from 56 to 73 degrees), the content of suspended matter (from 1.6 to 3 mg/l), iron (from 0.12 to 0.42 mg/l), phosphorus (from 12 to 22 μg/l). This leads to changes in the carbonate system of the bay water. The concentration of carbon dioxide increases significantly (from 1.2 to 3.0 mg/l), the pH value drops (from 7.22 to 7.12) and the oxygen content diminishes (from 101 to 92% of saturation). The Spearman correlation coefficients between the chemical characteristics and the year of study were the highest for the spring period, when the bay is separated from the open part of the lake by thermal bar and is strongly influenced by river water. Simultaneously with the change in the hydrochemical regime, there is an increase in the amount of iron in the upper layer of silts (from 0.65 to 4.8% of the air-dry sample). This led to a decrease in the number of macrozoobenthos 6–7 times.

scholarly journals Investigation of an Insulator Flashunder in an 150 kV OTL of the Power System of Crete

2019 ◽  
Vol 9 (5) ◽  
pp. 4851-4858
Author(s):  
D. Pylarinos ◽  
I. Pellas
Keyword(s):  
Power Systems ◽  
Transmission Lines ◽  
Low Weight ◽  
Brittle Fractures ◽  
Flow Through ◽  
Core Rod ◽  
Ceramic Insulators ◽  
Phase Conductors ◽  
And Coping ◽  
First Time

Overhead Transmission Lines (OTLs) are used in Power Systems to carry High Voltage between substations, usually over long distances. Faults in OTLs are bound to happen and thus locating and coping with them is an important aspect of OTL’s operation and maintenance. These faults may be of temporary or permanent nature, with certain types of faults progressing over time from the first category to the second. Local weather may also have a direct effect on the occurrence of faults resulting to puzzling events. A special category, often complex in nature, is insulator faults. Insulators are used in OTLs to support phase conductors while not allowing current to flow through the tower’s body to the ground. Traditional ceramic insulators used materials such as porcelain and glass as insulation, but in the last decades composite insulators with two insulating parts (a glass core/rod and a rubber housing), have also known great use mainly due to their low weight and their capability to withstand pollution. However, they are subjected to certain faults unique to them, such as flashunders. Flashunder is a term commonly used lately to describe faults that are related to the rod/housing interface of composite insulators. Such faults are rather difficult to locate as the electrical discharge does not create an easily visible trace (as in the case of flashovers) or a permanent mechanical fault (as in the case of brittle fractures). Such a fault occurred for the first time in the Transmission System of Crete in 2019 and this paper follows and discusses the incident and the experience gained.

scholarly journals Impact of COVID-19 on psychology of nurses working in the emergency and fever outpatient:A cross-sectional survey

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shasha Cui ◽  
Yujun Jiang ◽  
Qianyu Shi ◽  
Lei Zhang ◽  
Dehua Kong ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Pearson Correlation ◽  
Psychological Impact ◽  
Correlation Coefficients ◽  
Cross Sectional Survey ◽  
Public Health Response ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Health Response ◽  
Rest Time ◽  
And Coping ◽  
Night Shifts

Abstract Background COVID-19 poses a great challenge to the global health system. The nurses of emergency and fever outpatient (EFO) act as gatekeepers to the health care system in the public health response to COVID-19 epidemic. This study examined the psychological impact of COVID-19 upon EFO nurses in Chinese hospitals. Methods In midmonth of February, 2020, convenience sampling was used to recruit EFO nurses from hospitals in Jiangsu Province. Data were obtained by self-administered online questionnaires, which consisted of a general questionnaire, the Self-Rating Anxiety Scale, Perceived Stress Scale-14 and Simplified Coping Style Questionnaire. A total of 481 questionnaires were returned and 453 valid questionnaires were recovered. Multiple linear regression was used to explore the influence of socio-psychological and working condition factors on anxiety, stress and stress coping tendency. Pearson correlation coefficients were calculated to assess the associations among anxiety, stress and coping tendency. Results Among the participants, 281(62.03%) had no anxiety symptoms, 154(34.00%) had mild anxiety, 16(3.53%) had moderate anxiety, and 2(0.44%) had severe anxiety. There were 146(32.23%) participants with scores greater than 25 in the PSS, indicating excessive stress. We found that 229(50.55%) participants were more likely to respond positively to stress, while 224(49.45%) were more likely to respond negatively. The models we used included gender, fear of infecting family members, regretting being a nurse, having children, confidence in fighting outbreak, rest time, professional attitudes, having attended infection prevention training, and number of night shifts; and they were all predictors of the mental health of EFO nurses. Pearson correlation showed a positive correlation of the anxiety with stress score (r=0.443, P<0.001), while the coping tendency score was found negatively correlated with anxiety (r=-0.268, P< 0.001) and stress (r=-0.503, P< 0.001). Conclusion COVID-19 has a certain psychosocial impact upon EFO nurses. Effective measures, such as strengthening protection training, adequate nurses for emergency and fever clinics, reducing night shifts, and timely updates of latest epidemic situation, should be taken. Moreover, greater attention should be paid to female EFO nurses and nurses with children.

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