scholarly journals EXCESS DEATHS FROM ALL CAUSES AND BY COVID-19 IN BRAZIL IN 2020

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alcione Miranda dos Santos ◽  
Bruno Feres de Souza ◽  
Carolina Abreu de Carvalho ◽  
Marcos Adriano Garcia Campos ◽  
Bruno Luciano Carneiro Alves de Oliveira ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Racial Differences ◽  
Respiratory Diseases ◽  
Excess Mortality ◽  
Negative Binomial ◽  
Mortality Rates ◽  
Risk Of Death ◽  
External Causes ◽  
Log Linear ◽  
Restrictive Measures ◽  
Excess Deaths

SUMMARYObjectiveTo estimate the 2020 all-cause and COVID-19 excess mortality according to sex, age, race/color, and state, and to compare mortality rates by selected causes with that of the five previous years in Brazil.MethodsData from the Mortality Information System were used. Expected deaths for 2020 were estimated from 2015 to 2019 data using a negative binomial log-linear model.ResultsExcess deaths in Brazil in 2020 amounted to 13.7%, and the ratio of excess deaths to COVID-19 deaths was 0.90. Reductions in deaths from cardiovascular diseases (CVD), respiratory diseases, and external causes, and an increase in ill-defined causes were all noted. Excess deaths were also found to be heterogeneous, being higher in the Northern, Center-Western, and Northeastern states. In some states, the number of COVID-19 deaths was lower than that of excess deaths, whereas the opposite occurred in others. Moreover, excess deaths were higher in men, in those aged 20 to 59, and in black, yellow, or indigenous individuals. Meanwhile, excess mortality was lower in women, individuals aged 80 years or older, and in whites. Additionally, deaths among those aged 0 to 19 were 7.2% lower than expected, with reduction in mortality from respiratory diseases and external causes. There was also a drop in mortality due to external causes in men and in those aged 20 to 39 years. Furthermore, reductions in deaths from CVD and neoplasms were noted in some states and groups.ConclusionThere is evidence of underreporting of COVID-19 deaths and of the possible impact of restrictive measures in the reduction of deaths from external causes and respiratory diseases. The impacts of COVID-19 on mortality were heterogeneous among the states and groups, revealing that regional, demographic, socioeconomic, and racial differences expose individuals in distinct ways to the risk of death from both COVID-19 and other causes.

scholarly journals Excess deaths from all causes and by COVID-19 in Brazil in 2020

2021 ◽  
Vol 55 ◽  
pp. 71
Author(s):  
Alcione Miranda dos Santos ◽  
Bruno Feres de Souza ◽  
Carolina Abreu de Carvalho ◽  
Marcos Adriano Garcia Campos ◽  
Bruno Luciano Carneiro Alves de Oliveira ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Racial Differences ◽  
Respiratory Diseases ◽  
Excess Mortality ◽  
Negative Binomial ◽  
Mortality Rates ◽  
Risk Of Death ◽  
External Causes ◽  
Log Linear ◽  
Restrictive Measures ◽  
Excess Deaths

OBJECTIVE To estimate the 2020 all-cause and COVID-19 excess mortality according to sex, age, race/color, and state, and to compare mortality rates by selected causes with that of the five previous years in Brazil. METHODS Data from the Mortality Information System were used. Expected deaths for 2020 were estimated from 2015 to 2019 data using a negative binomial log-linear model. RESULTS Excess deaths in Brazil in 2020 amounted to 13.7%, and the ratio of excess deaths to COVID-19 deaths was 0.90. Reductions in deaths from cardiovascular diseases (CVD), respiratory diseases, and external causes, and an increase in ill-defined causes were all noted. Excess deaths were also found to be heterogeneous, being higher in the Northern, Center-Western, and Northeastern states. In some states, the number of COVID-19 deaths was lower than that of excess deaths, whereas the opposite occurred in others. Moreover, excess deaths were higher in men aged 20 to 59, and in black, yellow, or indigenous individuals. Meanwhile, excess mortality was lower in women, in individuals aged 80 years or older, and in whites. Additionally, deaths among those aged 0 to 19 were 7.2% lower than expected, with reduction in mortality from respiratory diseases and external causes. There was also a drop in mortality due to external causes in men and in those aged 20 to 39 years. Moreover, reductions in deaths from CVD and neoplasms were noted in some states and groups. CONCLUSION There is evidence of underreporting of COVID-19 deaths and of the possible impact of restrictive measures in the reduction of deaths from external causes and respiratory diseases. The impacts of COVID-19 on mortality were heterogeneous among the states and groups, revealing that regional, demographic, socioeconomic, and racial differences expose individuals in distinct ways to the risk of death from both COVID-19 and other causes.

Mortality following new-onset Rheumatoid Arthritis: has modern Rheumatology had an impact?

2017 ◽  
Vol 77 (1) ◽  
pp. 85-91 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marie Holmqvist ◽  
Lotta Ljung ◽  
Johan Askling
Keyword(s):  
Rheumatoid Arthritis ◽  
General Population ◽  
Excess Mortality ◽  
Disease Onset ◽  
Mortality Rates ◽  
Calendar Time ◽  
Risk Of Death ◽  
Quality Register ◽  
Increased Risk ◽  
New Onset

ObjectiveTo investigate if, and when, patients diagnosed with rheumatoid arthritis (RA) in recent years are at increased risk of death.MethodsUsing an extensive register linkage, we designed a population-based nationwide cohort study in Sweden. Patients with new-onset RA from the Swedish Rheumatology Quality Register, and individually matched comparators from the general population were followed with respect to death, as captured by the total population register.Results17 512 patients with new-onset RA between 1 January 1997 and 31 December 2014, and 78 847 matched general population comparator subjects were followed from RA diagnosis until death, emigration or 31 December 2015. There was a steady decrease in absolute mortality rates over calendar time, both in the RA cohort and in the general population. Although the relative risk of death in the RA cohort was not increased (HR=1.01, 95% CI 0.96 to 1.06), an excess mortality in the RA cohort was present 5 years after RA diagnosis (HR after 10 years since RA diagnosis=1.43 (95% CI 1.28 to 1.59)), across all calendar periods of RA diagnosis. Taking RA disease duration into account, there was no clear trend towards lower excess mortality for patients diagnosed more recently.ConclusionsDespite decreasing mortality rates, RA continues to be linked to an increased risk of death. Thus, despite advancements in RA management during recent years, increased efforts to prevent disease progression and comorbidity, from disease onset, are needed.

scholarly journals THE US MIDLIFE MORTALITY CRISIS CONTINUES: INCREASED DEATH RATES FROM CAUSES OTHER THAN COVID-19 DURING 2020

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dana A Glei
Keyword(s):  
Indirect Effect ◽  
Causes Of Death ◽  
Excess Mortality ◽  
Negative Binomial ◽  
National Level ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Negative Binomial Regression ◽  
Negative Binomial Regression Model ◽  
Age Group ◽  
External Causes

COVID-19 has prematurely ended many lives, particularly among the oldest Americans, but the pandemic has also had an indirect effect on health and non-COVID mortality among the working-age population, who have suffered the brunt of the economic consequences. This analysis quantifies the changes in mortality for selected causes of death during the COVID 19 pandemic up to December 31, 2020, and investigates whether the levels of excess mortality varied by age group. The data comprise national-level monthly death counts by age group and selected causes of death from January 1999 to December 2020 combined with annual mid-year population estimates over the same period. A negative binomial regression model was used to estimate monthly cause-specific excess mortality during 2020 controlling for the pre-pandemic mortality patterns by age, calendar year, and season. To determine whether excess mortality varied by age, we tested interactions between broad age groups and dichotomous indicators for the pre-pandemic (January-February) and the pandemic (March-December) portions of 2020. In relative terms, excess all cause mortality (including COVID-19) peaked in December at ages 25-44 (RR=1.58 relative to 2019, 95% CI=1.50-1.68). Excluding COVID-19, all of the excess mortality occurred between ages 15 and 64, peaking in July among those aged 25-44 (RR=1.45, 95% CI 1.37-1.53). We find notable excess mortality during March-December 2020 for many causes (i.e., influenza/pneumonia, other respiratory diseases, diabetes, heart disease, cerebrovascular disease, kidney disease, and external causes), but almost exclusively among young and midlife (aged 25-74) Americans. For those aged 75 and older, there was little excess mortality from causes other than COVID-19 except from Alzheimer's disease. Excess non-COVID mortality may have resulted, at least partly, from incorrectly classified COVID-19 deaths, but neither misclassification nor an atypical flu season that disproportionately affected younger people is likely to explain the increase in mortality from external causes, which was evident even during January-February 2020. Exploratory analyses suggest that drug-related mortality may be driving the early rise in external mortality. The growth in drug overdoses well before there was any hint of a pandemic suggests it is probably not solely an indirect effect of COVID-19, although the pandemic may have exacerbated the problem.

Excess mortality associated with the 2009 pandemic of influenza A(H1N1) in Hong Kong

2011 ◽  
Vol 140 (9) ◽  
pp. 1542-1550 ◽  
Author(s):  
L. YANG ◽  
K. P. CHAN ◽  
B. J. COWLING ◽  
S. S. CHIU ◽  
K. H. CHAN ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Hong Kong ◽  
Influenza A ◽  
Excess Mortality ◽  
Seasonal Influenza ◽  
Mortality Rates ◽  
Timely Manner ◽  
Mortality Burden ◽  
Influenza A H1n1 ◽  
Excess Deaths ◽  
Modelling Approach

SUMMARYReliable estimates of the burden of 2009 pandemic influenza A(pH1N1) cannot be easily obtained because only a small fraction of infections were confirmed by laboratory tests in a timely manner. In this study we developed a Poisson prediction modelling approach to estimate the excess mortality associated with pH1N1 in 2009 and seasonal influenza in 1998–2008 in the subtropical city Hong Kong. The results suggested that there were 127 all-cause excess deaths associated with pH1N1, including 115 with cardiovascular and respiratory disease, and 22 with pneumonia and influenza. The excess mortality rates associated with pH1N1 were highest in the population aged ⩾65 years. The mortality burden of influenza during the whole of 2009 was comparable to those in the preceding ten inter-pandemic years. The estimates of excess deaths were more than twofold higher than the reported fatal cases with laboratory-confirmed pH1N1 infection.

Excess Deaths in Mexico City and New York City During the COVID-19 Pandemic, March to August 2020

2021 ◽  
pp. e1-e4
Author(s):  
Martín Lajous ◽  
Rodrigo Huerta-Gutiérrez ◽  
Joseph Kennedy ◽  
Donald R. Olson ◽  
Daniel M. Weinberger
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
New York ◽  
New York City ◽  
Mexico City ◽  
York City ◽  
Excess Mortality ◽  
Negative Binomial ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Mitigation Strategies ◽  
Excess Deaths

Objectives. To estimate all-cause excess deaths in Mexico City (MXC) and New York City (NYC) during the COVID-19 pandemic. Methods. We estimated expected deaths among residents of both cities between March 1 and August 29, 2020, using log-linked negative binomial regression and compared these deaths with observed deaths during the same period. We calculated total and age-specific excess deaths and 95% prediction intervals (PIs). Results. There were 259 excess deaths per 100 000 (95% PI = 249, 269) in MXC and 311 (95% PI = 305, 318) in NYC during the study period. The number of excess deaths among individuals 25 to 44 years old was much higher in MXC (77 per 100 000; 95% PI = 69, 80) than in NYC (34 per 100 000; 95% PI = 30, 38). Corresponding estimates among adults 65 years or older were 1263 (95% PI = 1199, 1317) per 100 000 in MXC and 1581 (95% PI = 1549, 1621) per 100 000 in NYC. Conclusions. Overall, excess mortality was higher in NYC than in MXC; however, the excess mortality rate among young adults was higher in MXC. Public Health Implications. Excess all-cause mortality comparisons across populations and age groups may represent a more complete measure of pandemic effects and provide information on mitigation strategies and susceptibility factors. (Am J Public Health. Published online ahead of print September 9, 2021: e1–e4. https://doi.org/10.2105/AJPH.2021.306430 )

scholarly journals Excess mortality in England and Wales during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic

2020 ◽  
pp. jech-2020-214764 ◽  
Author(s):  
Evangelos Kontopantelis ◽  
Mamas A Mamas ◽  
John Deanfield ◽  
Miqdad Asaria ◽  
Tim Doran
Keyword(s):  
Excess Mortality ◽  
Negative Binomial ◽  
Mortality Rates ◽  
Mortality Data ◽  
Public Health Response ◽  
England And Wales ◽  
South West ◽  
Health Response ◽  
West Midlands ◽  
National Public Health

BackgroundDeaths during the COVID-19 pandemic result directly from infection and exacerbation of other diseases and indirectly from deferment of care for other conditions, and are socially and geographically patterned. We quantified excess mortality in regions of England and Wales during the pandemic, for all causes and for non-COVID-19-associated deaths.MethodsWeekly mortality data for 1 January 2010 to 1 May 2020 for England and Wales were obtained from the Office of National Statistics. Mean-dispersion negative binomial regressions were used to model death counts based on pre-pandemic trends and exponentiated linear predictions were subtracted from: (i) all-cause deaths and (ii) all-cause deaths minus COVID-19 related deaths for the pandemic period (week starting 7 March, to week ending 8 May).FindingsBetween 7 March and 8 May 2020, there were 47 243 (95% CI: 46 671 to 47 815) excess deaths in England and Wales, of which 9948 (95% CI: 9376 to 10 520) were not associated with COVID-19. Overall excess mortality rates varied from 49 per 100 000 (95% CI: 49 to 50) in the South West to 102 per 100 000 (95% CI: 102 to 103) in London. Non-COVID-19 associated excess mortality rates ranged from −1 per 100 000 (95% CI: −1 to 0) in Wales (ie, mortality rates were no higher than expected) to 26 per 100 000 (95% CI: 25 to 26) in the West Midlands.InterpretationThe COVID-19 pandemic has had markedly different impacts on the regions of England and Wales, both for deaths directly attributable to COVID-19 infection and for deaths resulting from the national public health response.

scholarly journals Mortality from injury, overdose and suicide during the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic, March-July, 2020

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jeremy S. Faust ◽  
Chengan Du ◽  
Katherine Dickerson Mayes ◽  
Shu-Xia Li ◽  
Zhenqiu Lin ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Causes Of Death ◽  
Excess Mortality ◽  
The United States ◽  
Health Statistics ◽  
Unintentional Injuries ◽  
Public Data ◽  
Drug Overdoses ◽  
External Causes Of Death ◽  
External Causes ◽  
Excess Deaths

Abstract Introduction The COVID-19 pandemic has been associated with substantial rates of all-cause excess mortality. The contribution of external causes of death to excess mortality including drug overdose, homicide, suicide, and unintentional injuries during the initial outbreak in the United States is less well documented. Methods Using public data published by the National Center for Health Statistics on February 10, 2021, we measured monthly excess mortality (the gap between observed and expected deaths) from five external causes using national-level data published by National Center for Health Statistics; assault (homicide); intentional self-harm (suicide); accidents (unintentional injuries); and motor vehicle accidents. We used seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (sARIMA) models developed with cause-specific monthly mortality counts and US population data from 2015-2019 and estimated the contribution of individual cause-specific mortality to all-cause excess mortality from March-July 2020. Results From March-July, 2020, 212,825 (95% CI 136,236-290,776) all-cause excess deaths occurred in the US). There were 8,540 excess drug overdoses (all intents) (95% CI 5,106 to 11,975), accounting for 4% of all excess mortality; 1,455 excess homicide deaths (95% CI 708 to 2202, accounting for 0.7% of excess mortality; 5,492 excess deaths due to unintentional accidents occurred (95% CI 85 to 10,899, accounting for 2.6% of excess mortality. Though a non-significantly 135 (95% CI -1361 to 1,630) more MVA deaths were recorded during the study period, a significant decrease in April (525; 95% CI -817 to -233) and significant increases in June-July (965; 95% CI 348 to 1,587) were observed. Suicide deaths were statistically lower than projected by 2,067 (95% CI 941-3,193 fewer deaths). Meaning Excess deaths from drug overdoses, homicide, and addicents occurred during the pandemic but represented a small fraction of all-cause excess mortality. The excess external causes of death, however, still represent thousands of lives lost. Notably, deaths from suicide were lower than expected and therefore did not contribute to excess mortality.

scholarly journals Excess Mortality in Italy During the COVID-19 Pandemic: Assessing the Differences Between the First and the Second Wave, Year 2020

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Maria Dorrucci ◽  
Giada Minelli ◽  
Stefano Boros ◽  
Valerio Manno ◽  
Sabrina Prati ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Health Care Services ◽  
Excess Mortality ◽  
Negative Binomial ◽  
Wave Pattern ◽  
Second Phase ◽  
Percentage Increase ◽  
Care Services ◽  
Quadratic Splines ◽  
Second Wave ◽  
Excess Deaths

COVID-19 dramatically influenced mortality worldwide, in Italy as well, the first European country to experience the Sars-Cov2 epidemic. Many countries reported a two-wave pattern of COVID-19 deaths; however, studies comparing the two waves are limited. The objective of the study was to compare all-cause excess mortality between the two waves that occurred during the year 2020 using nationwide data. All-cause excess mortalities were estimated using negative binomial models with time modeled by quadratic splines. The models were also applied to estimate all-cause excess deaths “not directly attributable to COVD-19”, i.e., without a previous COVID-19 diagnosis. During the first wave (25th February−31st May), we estimated 52,437 excess deaths (95% CI: 49,213–55,863) and 50,979 (95% CI: 50,333–51,425) during the second phase (10th October−31st December), corresponding to percentage 34.8% (95% CI: 33.8%–35.8%) in the second wave and 31.0% (95%CI: 27.2%–35.4%) in the first. During both waves, all-cause excess deaths percentages were higher in northern regions (59.1% during the first and 42.2% in the second wave), with a significant increase in the rest of Italy (from 6.7% to 27.1%) during the second wave. Males and those aged 80 or over were the most hit groups with an increase in both during the second wave. Excess deaths not directly attributable to COVID-19 decreased during the second phase with respect to the first phase, from 10.8% (95% CI: 9.5%–12.4%) to 7.7% (95% CI: 7.5%–7.9%), respectively. The percentage increase in excess deaths from all causes suggests in Italy a different impact of the SARS-CoV-2 virus during the second wave in 2020. The decrease in excess deaths not directly attributable to COVID-19 may indicate an improvement in the preparedness of the Italian health care services during this second wave, in the detection of COVID-19 diagnoses and/or clinical practice toward the other severe diseases.

scholarly journals Excess deaths among Latino people in California during the COVID-19 pandemic

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alicia R. Riley ◽  
Yea-Hung Chen ◽  
Ellicott C. Matthay ◽  
M. Maria Glymour ◽  
Jacqueline M. Torres ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Formal Education ◽  
Excess Mortality ◽  
Workplace Safety ◽  
Place Of Birth ◽  
Excess Death ◽  
High School Degree ◽  
Risk Of Death ◽  
Food And Agriculture ◽  
Access To Medical Care ◽  
Excess Deaths

ABSTRACTBackgroundLatinos in the US are experiencing higher excess deaths during the COVID-19 pandemic than any other racial/ethnic group, but it is unclear which subgroups within this diverse population are most affected. Such information is necessary to target policies and programs that prevent further excess mortality and reduce inequities.MethodsUsing death certificate data for January 1, 2016 through February 29, 2020 and time-series models, we estimated the expected weekly deaths among Latinos in California from March 1 through October 3, 2020. We quantified excess mortality as observed minus expected deaths and risk ratios (RR) as the ratio of observed to expected deaths. We considered subgroups defined by age, sex, place of birth, education, occupation, and combinations of these factors.ResultsDuring the first seven months of the pandemic, Latino deaths in California exceeded expected deaths by 10,304, a 31% increase. Excess death rates were greatest for individuals born in Mexico (RR 1.44; 95% PI, 1.41, 1.48) or Central America (RR 1.49; 95% PI, 1.37, 1.63), with less than a high school degree (RR 1.41; 95% PI, 1.35, 1.46), or in manufacturing (RR 1.62; 95% PI, 1.52, 1.72) or food-and-agriculture occupations (RR 1.50; 95% PI, 1.40, 1.61). Disparities in excess death by place of birth and education were magnified among Latinos in essential occupations.ConclusionsForeign-birth, low formal education, and work in an essential sector put some Latinos in California at higher risk of death during the COVID-19 pandemic. Interventions should reduce the disproportionate impact of the pandemic on Latino immigrants and Latinos in unsafe working conditions; these may include early vaccination, workplace safety enforcement, and expanded access to medical care.

scholarly journals Excess Mortality Attributed to Hurricane Irma Among Assisted Living Residents With Chronic Conditions in Florida

2021 ◽  
Vol 5 (Supplement_1) ◽  
pp. 286-286
Author(s):  
Kali Thomas ◽  
Lindsay Peterson ◽  
Debra Dobbs ◽  
Ross Andel ◽  
David Dosa ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Assisted Living ◽  
Chronic Conditions ◽  
Excess Mortality ◽  
Mortality Rates ◽  
Demographic Characteristics ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Risk Of Death ◽  
Medicare Data ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Hurricane Irma

Abstract Little is known about the impact of hurricanes on residents in assisted living communities (ALs), especially among individuals with chronic conditions that increase their risk of death after storms. We examined how the association between exposure to Hurricane Irma in 2017 and mortality differed by select chronic conditions. With Medicare data, we identified cohorts of AL residents in 2015 (n= 30,712) and 2017 (n= 29,842 ) and compared their rates of 30-day and 90-day and mortality. We adjusted rates for demographic characteristics and other comorbidities. AL residents with diabetes were at highest risk of death after the storm; between 2015 and 2017 they experienced a 50% increase in their 30-day mortality rates (0.6% in 2015, 0.9% in 2017) and a 43% increase in their 90-day mortality rates (2.1% in 2015, 3.0% in 2017). Policy makers should consider strategies to ensure that diabetic residents maintain continuity of medical care during disasters.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document