scholarly journals Predicting sensitivity and resilience to modifiable risk factors for cardiometabolic morbidity and mortality

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hugo Pomares-Millan ◽  
Naemieh Atabaki-Pasdar ◽  
Ingegerd Johansson ◽  
Alaitz Poveda ◽  
Paul W Franks
Keyword(s):  
Blood Pressure ◽  
Training Dataset ◽  
Validation Dataset ◽  
Cardiometabolic Disease ◽  
Proportional Hazard ◽  
Replication Cohort ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazard ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazard Models ◽  
Public Health Strategies

Background: Lifestyle exposures play a major role in the development of disease, yet people vary in their susceptibility. A critical step towards precision medicine is identifying individuals who are resilient or sensitive to the environment, and, assess whether the allocation to these predicted groups are more or less likely to develop cardiometabolic disease. Methods: We have used repeated data from the VHU study (n=35440) to identify sensitive and resilient individuals using prediction intervals at the 5th and 95th quantile. Three exposure susceptibility groups were derived per cardiometabolic score using quantile regression forests in the training dataset; next, in the validation dataset, we assessed the different risk of the groups using Cox proportional hazard models for CVD and diabetes. Results: The results of our study suggest that, after ~10 y of follow-up, individuals with sensitivity to the environmental exposures associated with systolic and diastolic blood pressure, blood lipids, and glucose were at higher risk of developing cardiometabolic disease. Moreover, when hazards were pooled with the replication cohort, for those individuals sensitive to the exposures associated with blood pressure traits, the hazards remained significant. Conclusions: Identifying individuals who are predicted to be sensitive are at higher risk of developing disease, this population may be a clinical target for prevention or early intervention and public health strategies.

scholarly journals Potato consumption and risk of pancreatic cancer in the HELGA cohort

2018 ◽  
Vol 119 (12) ◽  
pp. 1408-1415
Author(s):  
Lene A. Åsli ◽  
Tonje Braaten ◽  
Anja Olsen ◽  
Anne Tjønneland ◽  
Kim Overvad ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Pancreatic Cancer ◽  
Cancer Registries ◽  
Glycaemic Index ◽  
Proportional Hazard ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazard ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazard Models ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Potato Consumption ◽  
Adjusted Model

AbstractPotatoes have been a staple food in many countries throughout the years. Potatoes have a high glycaemic index (GI) score, and high GI has been associated with several chronic diseases and cancers. Still, the research on potatoes and health is scarce and contradictive, and we identified no prospective studies that had investigated the association between potatoes as a single food and the risk of pancreatic cancer. The aim of this study was to prospectively investigate the association between potato consumption and pancreatic cancer among 114 240 men and women in the prospective HELGA cohort, using Cox proportional hazard models. Information on diet (validated FFQ’s), lifestyle and health was collected by means of a questionnaire, and 221 pancreatic cancer cases were identified through cancer registries. The mean follow-up time was 11·4 (95 % CI 0·3, 16·9) years. High consumption of potatoes showed a non-significantly higher risk of pancreatic cancer in the adjusted model (hazard ratio (HR) 1·44; 95 % CI 0·93, 2·22,Pfor trend0·030) when comparing the highestv.the lowest quartile of potato consumption. In the sex-specific analyses, significant associations were found for females (HR 2·00; 95 % CI 1·07, 3·72,Pfor trend0·020), but not for males (HR 1·01; 95 % CI 0·56, 1·84,Pfor trend0·34). In addition, we explored the associations by spline regression, and the absence of dose–response effects was confirmed. In this study, high potato consumption was not consistently associated with a higher risk of pancreatic cancer. Further studies with larger populations are needed to explore the possible sex difference.

scholarly journals Farming tasks and the development of rheumatoid arthritis in the agricultural health study

2019 ◽  
pp. oemed-2018-105361 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christine G Parks ◽  
Armando Meyer ◽  
Laura E Beane Freeman ◽  
Jonathan Hofmann ◽  
Dale P Sandler
Keyword(s):  
Rheumatoid Arthritis ◽  
Self Report ◽  
Health Study ◽  
Proportional Hazard ◽  
Agricultural Health ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazard ◽  
Hazard Ratios ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazard Models ◽  
Agricultural Health Study

ObjectivesFarming has been associated with rheumatoid arthritis (RA). Some studies have evaluated the effects of pesticides, but other agricultural exposures may also affect immune response.MethodsWe investigated non-pesticide agricultural exposures in relation to RA in licensed pesticide applicators (n=27 175, mostly male farmers) and their spouses (n=22 231) in the Agricultural Health Study (AHS) cohort (1993–1997) who completed at least one follow-up survey through 2015. Incident RA cases (n=229 applicators and 249 spouses) were identified based on self-report confirmed by use of disease-modifying antirheumatic drugs or medical records. Hazard Ratios (HRs) and 95% Confidence Intervals (CIs) were estimated by Cox proportional hazard models adjusting for applicator status, state, smoking, education and specific pesticide use, allowing estimates to vary by median age when hazards assumptions were not met.ResultsOverall, RA was associated with regularly applying chemical fertilisers (HR=1.50; 95% CI 1.11 to 2.02), using non-gasoline solvents (HR=1.40; 95% CI 1.09 to 1.80), and painting (HR=1.26; 95% CI 1.00 to 1.59). In older applicators (>62 years), RA was associated with driving combines (HR=2.46; 95% CI 1.05 to 5.78) and milking cows (HR=2.56; 95% CI 1.01 to 6.53). In younger participants (≤62 years), RA was inversely associated with raising animals as well as crops (HR=0.68; 95% CI 0.51 to 0.89 vs crops only). Associations with specific crops varied by age: some (eg, hay) were inversely associated with RA in younger participants, while others (eg, alfalfa) were associated with RA in older participants.ConclusionThese findings suggest several agricultural tasks and exposures may contribute to development of RA.

Second-Hand Smoke As a Predictor of Smoking Cessation Among Lung Cancer Survivors

2014 ◽  
Vol 32 (6) ◽  
pp. 564-570 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lawson Eng ◽  
Jie Su ◽  
Xin Qiu ◽  
Prakruthi R. Palepu ◽  
Henrique Hon ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Lung Cancer ◽  
Smoking Cessation ◽  
Cancer Survivors ◽  
Second Hand Smoke ◽  
Proportional Hazard ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazard ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazard Models ◽  
Peer Smoking ◽  
After Cancer

Purpose Second-hand smoke (SHS; ie, exposure to smoking of friends and spouses in the household) reduces the likelihood of smoking cessation in noncancer populations. We assessed whether SHS is associated with cessation rates in lung cancer survivors. Patients and Methods Patients with lung cancer were recruited from Princess Margaret Cancer Centre, Toronto, ON, Canada. Multivariable logistic regression and Cox proportional hazard models evaluated the association of sociodemographics, clinicopathologic variables, and SHS with either smoking cessation or time to quitting. Results In all, 721 patients completed baseline and follow-up questionnaires with a mean follow-up time of 54 months. Of the 242 current smokers at diagnosis, 136 (56%) had quit 1 year after diagnosis. Exposure to smoking at home (adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 6.18; 95% CI, 2.83 to 13.5; P < .001), spousal smoking (aOR, 6.01; 95% CI, 2.63 to 13.8; P < .001), and peer smoking (aOR, 2.49; 95% CI, 1.33 to 4.66; P = .0043) were each associated with decreased rates of cessation. Individuals exposed to smoking in all three settings had the lowest chances of quitting (aOR, 9.57; 95% CI, 2.50 to 36.64; P < .001). Results were similar in time-to-quitting analysis, in which 68% of patients who eventually quit did so within 6 months after cancer diagnosis. Subgroup analysis revealed similar associations across early- and late-stage patients and between sexes. Conclusion SHS is an important factor associated with smoking cessation in lung cancer survivors of all stages and should be a key consideration when developing smoking cessation programs for patients with lung cancer.

Dietary patterns generated by the Treelet Transform and risk of stroke: a Danish cohort study

2020 ◽  
Vol 24 (1) ◽  
pp. 84-94
Author(s):  
Signe B Frederiksen ◽  
Heidi H Themsen ◽  
Kim Overvad ◽  
Christina C Dahm
Keyword(s):  
Cohort Study ◽  
Dietary Patterns ◽  
Inverse Association ◽  
Proportional Hazard ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazard ◽  
National Patient ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazard Models ◽  
Record Review ◽  
Danish National Patient Register

AbstractObjective:To relate empirically derived dietary patterns identified using the Treelet Transform (TT) to risk of stroke.Design:A prospective cohort study using the Danish Diet, Cancer and Health cohort. Dietary information was obtained in 1993–1997 using a validated semi-quantitative FFQ. Incident stroke diagnoses, obtained from the Danish National Patient Register, were verified by record review. Dietary patterns were generated using TT, and participants were categorised into quintiles based on their adherence to each pattern. Sex-specific Cox proportional hazard models estimated associations between dietary patterns and stroke.Setting:Denmark.Participants:55 061 men and women aged 50–64 years at the time of enrolment.Results:Three dietary patterns explaining 15·4 % of the total variance were identified: a Prudent pattern, a Western pattern and a Wine & Snacks pattern. During a follow-up time of 10 years, 1513 cases occurred. Comparing the highest to lowest quintiles of intake, adherence to a Prudent pattern was inversely associated with stroke (HRmen 0·74, 95 % CI 0·60, 0·91; HRwomen 0·82, 95 % CI 0·62, 1·08), while adherence to a Western pattern was associated with greater risk (HRmen 1·61, 95 % CI 1·23, 2·10; HRwomen 2·01, 95 % CI 1·48, 2·72). No association was found for a Wine & Snacks pattern for women, but a weak inverse association was found for men (HR 0·81, 95 % CI 0·67, 0·99).Conclusions:The results of this study are broadly in line with current recommendations for a healthy diet to prevent stroke.

BP in Young Adults with CKD and Associations with Cardiovascular Events and Decline in Kidney Function

2021 ◽  
pp. ASN.2020081156
Author(s):  
Alexander J. Kula ◽  
David K. Prince ◽  
Joseph T. Flynn ◽  
Nisha Bansal
Keyword(s):  
Heart Failure ◽  
Young Adults ◽  
Cardiovascular Events ◽  
Treatment Strategies ◽  
Proportional Hazard ◽  
Ckd Progression ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazard ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazard Models ◽  
The Relationship

BackgroundBP is an important modifiable risk factor for cardiovascular events and CKD progression in middle-aged or older adults with CKD. However, studies describing the relationship between BP with outcomes in young adults with CKD are limited.MethodsIn an observational study, we focused on 317 young adults (aged 21–40 years) with mild to moderate CKD enrolled in the Chronic Renal Insufficiency Cohort (CRIC) Study. Exposures included baseline systolic BP evaluated continuously (per 10 mm Hg increase) and in categories (<120, 120–129, and ≥130 mm Hg). Primary outcomes included cardiovascular events (heart failure, myocardial infarction, stroke, or all-cause death) and CKD progression (50% decline of eGFR or ESKD). We used Cox proportional hazard models to test associations between baseline systolic BP with cardiovascular events and CKD progression.ResultsCardiovascular events occurred in 52 participants and 161 had CKD progression during median follow-up times of 11.3 years and 4.1 years, respectively. Among those with baseline systolic BP ≥130 mm Hg, 3%/yr developed heart failure, 20%/yr had CKD progression, and 2%/yr died. In fully adjusted models, baseline systolic BP ≥130 mm Hg (versus systolic BP<120 mm Hg) was significantly associated with cardiovascular events or death (hazard ratio [HR], 2.13; 95% confidence interval [95% CI], 1.05 to 4.32) and CKD progression (HR, 1.68; 95% CI, 1.10 to 2.58).ConclusionsAmong young adults with CKD, higher systolic BP is significantly associated with a greater risk of cardiovascular events and CKD progression. Trials of BP management are needed to test targets and treatment strategies specifically in young adults with CKD.

Impact of Pre-diabetes alone or in combination with Hypertension, Dyslipidemia, or both on Major Adverse Cardiovascular Events

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nahid Hashemi Madani ◽  
Faramarz Ismail-Beigi ◽  
Hossein Poustchi ◽  
Mahdi Nalini ◽  
Sadaf G. Sepanlou ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Cardiovascular Events ◽  
Fasting Glucose ◽  
Population Based ◽  
Major Adverse Cardiovascular Events ◽  
Proportional Hazard ◽  
Population Based Study ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazard ◽  
Normal Fasting Glucose ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazard Models

Abstract Background Whether pre-diabetes in the absence of hypertension (HTN) or dyslipidemia (DLP) is a risk factor for occurrence of major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) is not fully established. We investigated the effect of impaired fasting glucose (IFG) alone and in combination with HTN, DLP or both on subsequent occurrence of MACE as well as individual MACE components. Methods This longitudinal population-based study included 9,831 inhabitants of Northeastern Iran. The participants were free of any cardiovascular disease at baseline and were followed yearly from 2010 to 2017. Cox proportional hazard models were fitted to measure the hazard of IFG alone or in combination with HTN and DLP on occurrence of MACE as the primary endpoint. Results 297 MACE were recorded during 6.2±0.1 years follow up. IFG alone compared to normal fasting glucose (NFG) was not associated with increased in occurrence of MACE (HR, 1.05; 95% CI, 0.59-1.86; p, 0.8). However, combination of IFG and HTN (HR, 2.75; 95% CI, 1.93-3.90; p, 0.001) or HTN + DLP (HR, 2.85; 95% CI, 1.79-4.54; p, 0.001) significantly increased the hazard of MACE. In contrast, IFG with DLP at baseline did not increase the hazard of MACE compared to normoglycemic- normolipemic individuals (p,0.2). The results also indicated IFG with HTN, DLP, or HTN+DLP were associated with significant higher HRs for some individual components of MACE. Conclusion IFG, per se, does not appear to increase hazard of MACE. However, IFG with HTN or HTN + DLP conferred a significant hazard for MACE in an incremental manner.

scholarly journals Individual testosterone decline and future mortality risk in men

2018 ◽  
Vol 178 (1) ◽  
pp. 121-128 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stine A Holmboe ◽  
Niels E Skakkebæk ◽  
Anders Juul ◽  
Thomas Scheike ◽  
Tina K Jensen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Mortality Risk ◽  
Serum Levels ◽  
Proportional Hazard ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazard ◽  
Age Related ◽  
National Mortality ◽  
All Cause Mortality ◽  
Specific Mortality ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazard Models

Objective Male aging is characterized by a decline in testosterone (TS) levels with a substantial variability between subjects. However, it is unclear whether differences in age-related changes in TS are associated with general health. We investigated associations between mortality and intra-individual changes in serum levels of total TS, SHBG, free TS and LH during a ten-year period with up to 18 years of registry follow-up. Design 1167 men aged 30–60 years participating in the Danish Monitoring Trends and Determinants of Cardiovascular Disease (MONICA1) study and who had a follow-up examination ten years later (MONICA10) were included. From MONICA10, the men were followed up to 18 years (mean: 15.2 years) based on the information from national mortality registries via their unique personal ID numbers. Methods Cox proportional hazard models were used to investigate the association between intra-individual hormone changes and all-cause, CVD and cancer mortalities. Results A total of 421 men (36.1%) died during the follow-up period. Men with most pronounced decline in total TS (<10th percentile) had a higher all-cause mortality risk compared to men within the 10th to 90th percentile (hazard ratio (HR): 1.60; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.08–2.36). No consistent associations were seen in cause-specific mortality analyses. Conclusion Our study showed that higher mortality rates were seen among the men who had the most pronounced age-related decline in TS, independent of their baseline TS levels.

scholarly journals Female sex, early-onset hypertension, and risk of dementia

Neurology ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 89 (18) ◽  
pp. 1886-1893 ◽  
Author(s):  
Paola Gilsanz ◽  
Elizabeth Rose Mayeda ◽  
M. Maria Glymour ◽  
Charles P. Quesenberry ◽  
Dan M. Mungas ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Care Delivery ◽  
Early Adulthood ◽  
Health Care Delivery System ◽  
Proportional Hazard ◽  
Brain Health ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazard ◽  
Dementia Risk ◽  
Dementia Incidence ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazard Models

Objective:To evaluate the association of early-adulthood and mid-adulthood hypertension with dementia in men and women.Methods:We evaluated 5,646 members of a diverse integrated health care delivery system who had clinical examinations and health survey data from 1964 to 1973 (mean age 32.7 years; early adulthood) and 1978–1985 (mean age 44.3 years; mid-adulthood) and were members as of January 1, 1996 (mean age 59.8 years). Hypertension categories based on measurements of blood pressure (BP) and change in hypertension categories between the 2 examinations (e.g., onset hypertension) were used to predict dementia incidence from January 1, 1996, to September 30, 2015. Cox proportional hazard models were adjusted for demographics, vascular comorbidities, and hypertension treatment; inverse probability weighting accounted for differential attrition between first BP measurement and start of follow-up.Results:A total of 532 individuals (9.4%) were diagnosed with dementia. Early adulthood hypertension was not associated with dementia, though effect estimates were elevated among women. Mid-adulthood hypertension was associated with 65% (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.25–2.18) increased dementia risk among women but not men. Onset of hypertension in mid-adulthood predicted 73% higher dementia risk in women (95% CI 1.24–2.40) compared to stable normotensive. There was no evidence that hypertension or changes in hypertension increased dementia risk among men.Conclusions:Though midlife hypertension was more common in men, it was only associated with dementia risk in women. Sex differences in the timing of dementia risk factors have important implications for brain health and hypertension management.

scholarly journals Dose-response association between device-measured physical activity and incident dementia: a prospective study from UK Biobank

BMC Medicine ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 19 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Fanny Petermann-Rocha ◽  
Donald M. Lyall ◽  
Stuart R. Gray ◽  
Jason M. R. Gill ◽  
Naveed Sattar ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Physical Activity ◽  
Lower Risk ◽  
Hazard Models ◽  
Proportional Hazard ◽  
Uk Biobank ◽  
Proportional Hazard Models ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazard ◽  
Incident Dementia ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazard Models

Abstract Background Previous cohort studies have investigated the relationship between self-reported physical activity (PA) and dementia. Evidence from objective device-measured PA data is lacking. This study aimed to explore the association of device-measured PA with the risk of dementia incidence and common subtypes (Alzheimer’s disease [AD] and vascular dementia) using the UK Biobank study. Methods 84,854 participants (55.8% women), invited to participate in the device-measured PA between 2013 and 2015, were included in this prospective cohort study. Wrist accelerometers were used to measure light, moderate, vigorous, moderate-to-vigorous PA (MVPA) and total PA intensity and duration (MET/min/week). Incident dementia (fatal and non-fatal) was extracted from hospital episodes records for incidence and death register for mortality. Incidence follow-up was carried out until the end of March 2021in England and Scotland and the end of March 2018 in Wales. Mortality data were available until February 2021. Nonlinear associations were first investigated using penalised cubic splines fitted in the Cox proportional hazard models. In addition, using MVPA, five categories were created. Associations of these categories with the outcomes were investigated using Cox proportional hazard models. Analyses were adjusted for sociodemographic, lifestyle and health-related factors. Results After a median follow-up of 6.3 years, 678 individuals were diagnosed with dementia. Evidence of nonlinearity was observed for all PA modes and all-cause dementia. For categories of MVPA, there was a significant trend towards a low risk of overall dementia when higher levels of MVPA were achieved (HRtrend 0.66 [95% CI 0.62 to 0.70]. The lowest risk was identified in individuals who performed more than 1200 MET/min/week, those who had 84% (95% CI 0.12 to 0.21) lower risk of incident dementia compared to those who performed < 300 MET/min/week. Conclusions Participants with higher PA levels had a lower risk of incident dementia than those less active, independently of sociodemographic, lifestyle factors and comorbidity. Considering that the majority of previous studies have reported this association using self-reported data, our findings highlight the strong inverse association between PA objectively measured and incident dementia.

scholarly journals A Prospective Study of Grip Strength Trajectories and Incident Cardiovascular Disease

2021 ◽  
Vol 8 ◽  
Author(s):  
Weida Liu ◽  
Runzhen Chen ◽  
Chenxi Song ◽  
Chuangshi Wang ◽  
Ge Chen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Myocardial Infarction ◽  
Heart Failure ◽  
Cardiovascular Disease ◽  
Grip Strength ◽  
Proportional Hazard ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazard ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazard Models ◽  
A Prospective Study

Background: A single measurement of grip strength (GS) could predict the incidence of cardiovascular disease (CVD). However, the long-term pattern of GS and its association with incident CVD are rarely studied. We aimed to characterize the GS trajectory and determine its association with the incidence of CVD (myocardial infarction, angina, stroke, and heart failure).Methods: This study included 5,300 individuals without CVD from a British community-based cohort in 2012 (the baseline). GS was repeatedly measured in 2004, 2008, and 2012. Long-term GS patterns were identified by the group-based trajectory model. Cox proportional hazard models were used to examine the associations between GS trajectories and incident CVD. We identified three GS trajectories separately for men and women based on the 2012 GS measurement and change patterns during 2004–2012.Results: After a median follow-up of 6.1 years (during 2012–2019), 392 participants developed major CVD, including 114 myocardial infarction, 119 angina, 169 stroke, and 44 heart failure. Compared with the high stable group, participants with low stable GS was associated with a higher incidence of CVD incidence [hazards ratio (HR): 2.17; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.52–3.09; P &lt;0.001], myocardial infarction (HR: 2.01; 95% CI: 1.05–3.83; P = 0.035), stroke (HR: 1.96; 95% CI: 1.11–3.46; P = 0.020), and heart failure (HR: 6.91; 95% CI: 2.01–23.79; P = 0.002) in the fully adjusted models.Conclusions: The low GS trajectory pattern was associated with a higher risk of CVD. Continuous monitoring of GS values could help identify people at risk of CVD.

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