scholarly journals Transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 in a strictly-Orthodox Jewish community in the UK

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
William Waites ◽  
Carl AB Pearson ◽  
Katherine M Gaskell ◽  
Thomas House ◽  
Lorenzo Pellis ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Primary Schools ◽  
Transmission Rate ◽  
Religious Community ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Susceptibility To Infection ◽  
Relative Contribution ◽  
Social Settings ◽  
Community Transmission ◽  
Serological Data ◽  
The Uk

Some social settings such as households and workplaces, have been identified as high risk for SARS-CoV-2 transmission. Identifying and quantifying the importance of these settings is critical for designing interventions. A tightly-knit religious community in the UK experienced a very large COVID-19 epidemic in 2020, reaching 64.3% seroprevalence within 10 months, and we surveyed this community both for serological status and individual-level attendance at particular settings. Using these data, and a network model of people and places represented as a stochastic graph rewriting system, we estimated the relative contribution of transmission in households, schools and religious institutions to the epidemic, and the relative risk of infection in each of these settings. All congregate settings were important for transmission, with some such as primary schools and places of worship having a higher share of transmission than others. We found that the model needed a higher general-community transmission rate for women (3.3-fold), and lower susceptibility to infection in children to recreate the observed serological data. The precise share of transmission in each place was related to assumptions about the internal structure of those places. Identification of key settings of transmission can allow public health interventions to be targeted at these locations.

scholarly journals Estimating the impact of reopening schools on the reproduction number of SARS-CoV-2 in England, using weekly contact survey data

BMC Medicine ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 19 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
James D. Munday ◽  
Christopher I. Jarvis ◽  
Amy Gimma ◽  
Kerry L. M. Wong ◽  
Kevin van Zandvoort ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Transmission Rate ◽  
Transmission Risk ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Face To Face ◽  
School Settings ◽  
Contact Rates ◽  
Contact Survey ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Background Schools were closed in England on 4 January 2021 as part of increased national restrictions to curb transmission of SARS-CoV-2. The UK government reopened schools on 8 March. Although there was evidence of lower individual-level transmission risk amongst children compared to adults, the combined effects of this with increased contact rates in school settings and the resulting impact on the overall transmission rate in the population were not clear. Methods We measured social contacts of > 5000 participants weekly from March 2020, including periods when schools were both open and closed, amongst other restrictions. We combined these data with estimates of the susceptibility and infectiousness of children compared with adults to estimate the impact of reopening schools on the reproduction number. Results Our analysis indicates that reopening all schools under the same measures as previous periods that combined lockdown with face-to-face schooling would be likely to increase the reproduction number substantially. Assuming a baseline of 0.8, we estimated a likely increase to between 1.0 and 1.5 with the reopening of all schools or to between 0.9 and 1.2 reopening primary or secondary schools alone. Conclusion Our results suggest that reopening schools would likely halt the fall in cases observed between January and March 2021 and would risk a return to rising infections, but these estimates relied heavily on the latest estimates or reproduction number and the validity of the susceptibility and infectiousness profiles we used at the time of reopening.

scholarly journals Modelling the Transmission Dynamics of COVID-19 in Six High-Burden Countries

2021 ◽  
Vol 2021 ◽  
pp. 1-17
Author(s):  
Azizur Rahman ◽  
Md Abdul Kuddus
Keyword(s):  
Older People ◽  
Disease Transmission ◽  
Transmission Rate ◽  
Control Strategies ◽  
Rank Correlation ◽  
Critical Parameters ◽  
High Burden ◽  
Susceptibility To Infection ◽  
The Usa ◽  
The Uk

The new Coronavirus Disease 19, officially known as COVID-19, originated in China in 2019 and has since spread worldwide. We presented an age-structured Susceptible-Latent-Mild-Critical-Removed (SLMCR) compartmental model of COVID-19 disease transmission with nonlinear incidence during the pandemic period. We provided the model calibration to estimate parameters with day-wise COVID-19 data, i.e., reported cases by worldometer from 15th February to 30th March 2020 in six high-burden countries, including Australia, Italy, Spain, the USA, the UK, and Canada. We estimate transmission rates for each country and found that the country with the highest transmission rate is Spain, which may increase the new cases and deaths than the other countries. We found that saturation infection negatively impacted the dynamics of COVID-19 cases in all the six high-burden countries. The study used a sensitivity analysis to identify the most critical parameters through the partial rank correlation coefficient method. We found that the transmission rate of COVID-19 had the most significant influence on prevalence. The prediction of new cases in COVID-19 until 30th April 2020 using the developed model was also provided with recommendations to control strategies of COVID-19. We also found that adults are more susceptible to infection than both children and older people in all six countries. However, in Italy, Spain, the UK, and Canada, older people show more susceptibility to infection than children, opposite to the case in Australia and the USA. The information generated from this study would be helpful to the decision-makers of various organisations across the world, including the Ministry of Health in Australia, Italy, Spain, the USA, the UK, and Canada, to control COVID-19.

scholarly journals Disrupting social marketing through a practice-oriented approach

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Fiona Spotswood ◽  
Gareth Wiltshire ◽  
Sara Spear ◽  
Angela Makris
Keyword(s):  
Social Marketing ◽  
Primary Schools ◽  
Sustainable Consumption ◽  
Unintended Consequences ◽  
Management Approach ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Evaluation Approach ◽  
Sociology Of Health ◽  
The Uk

Purpose This paper aims to explore four disruptions that practice theory makes to traditional social marketing approaches to school physical activity (PA) intervention. Design/methodology/approach The paper draws on existing literature from sustainable consumption, sociology of health and illness and the authors’ experiences working with primary schools in the UK to plan and execute social marketing approaches to PA, targeting interconnected social practices from which PA emerges or fails to emerge. The paper explores a practice-oriented theoretical framing, engaging with calls from interdisciplinary areas for PA interventions to shape the PA emerging from a school’s everyday routines, rather than promote PA participation at an individual level. Findings The paper argues first that a practice perspective would focus on situation research rather than audience research, with practices rather than people as the focus. Second, the purpose of practice-oriented social marketing would be to achieve transitions in practices rather than behaviour change. Third, the planning and management approach of practice-oriented social marketing would account for unintended consequences and complex interconnections between practices. Finally, an evolved evaluation approach to practice-oriented social marketing would take a longer term approach to understand how cultural transitions are emerging. Originality/value This paper contributes to an important stream of critical social marketing scholarship that seeks to advance social marketing away from its individualist routes. It sets an agenda for further research that considers the ontological and practical possibilities for practice informed approach to social marketing.

scholarly journals Implications of the school-household network structure on SARS-CoV-2 transmission under different school reopening strategies in England

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
James D Munday ◽  
Katharine Sherratt ◽  
Sophie Meakin ◽  
Akira Endo ◽  
Carl A. B. Pearson ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Secondary School ◽  
Primary Schools ◽  
Disease Outbreaks ◽  
School Closures ◽  
School Aged Children ◽  
Infectious Disease Outbreaks ◽  
Community Transmission ◽  
Household Members ◽  
Potential Impact ◽  
The Uk

Background School closures are a well-established non-pharmaceutical intervention in the event of infectious disease outbreaks, and have been implemented in many countries across the world, including the UK, to slow down the spread of SARS-CoV-2. As governments begin to relax restrictions on public life there is a need to understand the potential impact that reopening schools may have on transmission. Methods We used data provided by the UK Department for Education to construct a network of English schools, connected through pairs of pupils resident at the same address. We used the network to evaluate the potential for transmission between schools, and for long range propagation across the network, under different reopening scenarios. Results Amongst the options evaluated we found that reopening only Reception, Year 1 and Year 6 (4-6 and 10-11 year olds) resulted in the lowest risk of transmission between schools, with outbreaks within a single school unlikely to result in outbreaks in adjacent schools in the network. The additional reopening of Years 10 and 12 (14-15 and 16-17 year olds) resulted in an increase in the risk of transmission between schools comparable to reopening all primary school years (4-11 year olds). However, the majority of schools presented low risk of initiating widespread transmission through the school system. Reopening all secondary school years (11-18 year olds) resulted in large potential outbreak clusters putting up to 50% of households connected to schools at risk of infection if sustained transmission within schools was possible. Conclusions Reopening secondary school years is likely to have a greater impact on community transmission than reopening primary schools in England. Keeping transmission within schools limited is essential for reducing the risk of large outbreaks amongst school-aged children and their household members.

scholarly journals Development and pilot evaluation of an educational programme on infection prevention and antibiotics with English and Scottish youth groups, informed by COM-B

2021 ◽  
pp. 175717742110124
Author(s):  
Catherine V Hayes ◽  
Charlotte V Eley ◽  
Diane Ashiru-Oredope ◽  
Magda Hann ◽  
Cliodna AM McNulty
Keyword(s):  
Primary Schools ◽  
Infection Prevention ◽  
Action Plan ◽  
Antibiotic Use ◽  
Educational Programme ◽  
Youth Group ◽  
Youth Groups ◽  
Hygiene Behaviour ◽  
Programme Content ◽  
The Uk

Background: The UK 5-year antimicrobial resistance (AMR) National Action Plan highlights the need to prevent community infections through education of children. Activities around infection prevention (IP) and antibiotics were piloted by UK youth groups in 2016–2018, prompting Public Health England (PHE) to develop a standardised programme. The aim of the study was to develop and pilot an educational programme on IP and antibiotics for use by community youth groups in the UK. Methods: A working group, including youth group volunteers interested in IP and AMR, agreed on the programme content through consensus, informed by the Capability, Opportunity, Motivation, Behaviour model (COM-B). The Antibiotic Guardian Youth Badge (AGYB) included learning through interactive e-Bug activities on IP and prudent antibiotic use, action setting through Antibiotic Guardian pledges and consolidation through poster development. The programme was piloted and evaluated with conveniently recruited youth groups in 2019, including quantitative and qualitative questionnaire feedback from community leaders and children. Results: Fourteen youth group leaders and 232 children from uniformed Girlguiding/Scout groups in England and Scotland participated in the pilot evaluation, as well as two primary schools. Leaders reported alignment to the themes of their youth organisation, but struggled to teach antibiotics and antibiotic resistance. Children reported enjoyment and intentions to improve hygiene behaviour. Conclusion: Community youth groups are a suitable setting for IP and antibiotics education. The AGYB was officially launched in March 2020 and promoted for use with home-schooling children and remote youth group meetings to educate about IP during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic.

scholarly journals An evaluation of the Quality Mark for History for primary schools in the UK

2018 ◽  
Vol 46 (6) ◽  
pp. 661-670
Author(s):  
Sue Temple ◽  
Bev. Forrest
Keyword(s):  
Primary Schools ◽  
Quality Mark ◽  
The Uk

scholarly journals Biophilic Design Patterns for Primary Schools

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (21) ◽  
pp. 12207
Author(s):  
Rokhshid Ghaziani ◽  
Mark Lemon ◽  
Paramita Atmodiwirjo
Keyword(s):  
Primary Schools ◽  
Design Patterns ◽  
Well Being ◽  
Primary School Children ◽  
School Design ◽  
School Buildings ◽  
Biophilic Design ◽  
Natural Analogues ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Health And Well Being

Existing frameworks for biophilic design have similar strategies and attributes as useful checklists for designers; however, the focus has been on adults rather than children, and there remains the need for more guidance related to school design by extension. The application of biophilia would be a design resolution in schools because of its impact on children’s health and well-being, which has been more important since the pandemic started; however, it remains quite unexplored in school design in many countries, including the UK. Biophilic design patterns can be used in school buildings and grounds for greater connectivity between spaces and nature in order to promote children’s well-being. This paper focuses on ten biophilic design patterns under two categories of ‘nature in the space’ and ‘natural analogues.’ This study presents the findings of case studies in various countries. The analysis focuses on the manifestations of biophilia to inform the application of biophilic design patterns for primary schools. Finally, this paper suggests how primary school children could be involved in a co-design process in order to evaluate biophilic design patterns.

scholarly journals A renewal equation model to assess roles and limitations of contact tracing for disease outbreak control

2021 ◽  
Vol 8 (4) ◽  
Author(s):  
Francesca Scarabel ◽  
Lorenzo Pellis ◽  
Nicholas H. Ogden ◽  
Jianhong Wu
Keyword(s):  
Deterministic Model ◽  
Infected Individual ◽  
Equation Model ◽  
Renewal Equation ◽  
Contact Tracing ◽  
Calendar Time ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Total Incidence ◽  
Community Transmission ◽  
The Individual

We propose a deterministic model capturing essential features of contact tracing as part of public health non-pharmaceutical interventions to mitigate an outbreak of an infectious disease. By incorporating a mechanistic formulation of the processes at the individual level, we obtain an integral equation (delayed in calendar time and advanced in time since infection) for the probability that an infected individual is detected and isolated at any point in time. This is then coupled with a renewal equation for the total incidence to form a closed system describing the transmission dynamics involving contact tracing. We define and calculate basic and effective reproduction numbers in terms of pathogen characteristics and contact tracing implementation constraints. When applied to the case of SARS-CoV-2, our results show that only combinations of diagnosis of symptomatic infections and contact tracing that are almost perfect in terms of speed and coverage can attain control, unless additional measures to reduce overall community transmission are in place. Under constraints on the testing or tracing capacity, a temporary interruption of contact tracing may, depending on the overall growth rate and prevalence of the infection, lead to an irreversible loss of control even when the epidemic was previously contained.

scholarly journals Early introductions and community transmission of SARS-CoV-2 variant B.1.1.7 in the United States

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tara Alpert ◽  
Erica Lasek-Nesselquist ◽  
Anderson F. Brito ◽  
Andrew L. Valesano ◽  
Jessica Rothman ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
United States ◽  
New York ◽  
Diagnostic Testing ◽  
The United States ◽  
International Travel ◽  
Health Concern ◽  
Public Health Response ◽  
Community Transmission ◽  
The Uk

SummaryThe emergence and spread of SARS-CoV-2 lineage B.1.1.7, first detected in the United Kingdom, has become a national public health concern in the United States because of its increased transmissibility. Over 500 COVID-19 cases associated with this variant have been detected since December 2020, but its local establishment and pathways of spread are relatively unknown. Using travel, genomic, and diagnostic testing data, we highlight the primary ports of entry for B.1.1.7 in the US and locations of possible underreporting of B.1.1.7 cases. New York, which receives the most international travel from the UK, is likely one of the key hubs for introductions and domestic spread. Finally, we provide evidence for increased community transmission in several states. Thus, genomic surveillance for B.1.1.7 and other variants urgently needs to be enhanced to better inform the public health response.

scholarly journals How effective was Newfoundland & Labrador’s travel ban to prevent the spread of COVID-19? An agent-based analysis

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dionne M. Aleman ◽  
Benjamin Z. Tham ◽  
Sean J. Wagner ◽  
Justin Semelhago ◽  
Asghar Mohammadi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Disease Transmission ◽  
Spatial Location ◽  
Contact Tracing ◽  
Infection Rates ◽  
Case Scenario ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Transmission Rates ◽  
Imported Cases ◽  
The Uk

AbstractBackgroundTo prevent the spread of COVID-19 in Newfoundland & Labrador (NL), NL implemented a wide travel ban in May 2020. We estimate the effectiveness of this travel ban using a customized agent-based simulation (ABS).MethodsWe built an individual-level ABS to simulate the movements and behaviors of every member of the NL population, including arriving and departing travellers. The model considers individual properties (spatial location, age, comorbidities) and movements between environments, as well as age-based disease transmission with pre-symptomatic, symptomatic, and asymptomatic transmission rates. We examine low, medium, and high travel volume, traveller infection rates, and traveller quarantine compliance rates to determine the effect of travellers on COVID spread, and the ability of contact tracing to contain outbreaks.ResultsInfected travellers increased COVID cases by 2-52x (8-96x) times and peak hospitalizations by 2-49x (8-94x), with (without) contact tracing. Although contact tracing was highly effective at reducing spread, it was insufficient to stop outbreaks caused by travellers in even the best-case scenario, and the likelihood of exceeding contact tracing capacity was a concern in most scenarios. Quarantine compliance had only a small impact on COVID spread; travel volume and infection rate drove spread.InterpretationNL’s travel ban was likely a critically important intervention to prevent COVID spread. Even a small number of infected travellers can play a significant role in introducing new chains of transmission, resulting in exponential community spread and significant increases in hospitalizations, while outpacing contact tracing capabilities. With the presence of more transmissible variants, e.g., the UK variant, prevention of imported cases is even more critical.

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