One hundred years of climate change in Mexico

Spatial assessments of historical climate change are of paramount importance to focus research and conservation efforts. Despite the fact that there are global climatic databases available at high spatial resolution, they present some shortcomings to evaluate historic trends of climate change and their impacts on biodiversity. These databases span over a single period in the late 20th and early 21th centuries and their quality and reliability in many regions is compromise because they have not been produce with all information available for all regions. Therefore, in this contribution we developed climatic surfaces for Mexico for three periods that cover most of the 20th and early 21th centuries: t1-1940 (1910-1949), t2-1970 (1950-1979) and t3-2000 (1980-2009), and characterize climate change rates of the biogeographic provinces of Mexico via a linear trend analysis of monthly values and a Mann-Kendall analysis. Our results indicate that rates of change and trends have not been uniform across Mexico: Nearctic provinces had suffered higher and more consistent trends of change than southern tropical regions. Central and southern provinces cooled down at the beginning of the 20th century, but warmed up consistently since the 1970s. Precipitation has generally increased throughout the country, being more notorious in northern provinces. We aim to provide modellers with a set of climate surfaces that may help decision-making to improve management strategies for biodiversity conservation.

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Impact of Climate Change on a Key Agricultural Pest

Climate Change and Environmental Concerns ◽

10.4018/978-1-5225-5487-5.ch004 ◽

2018 ◽

pp. 65-87 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Tamika A. Garrick ◽

Oscar E. Liburd

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Developing Countries ◽

Agricultural Production ◽

Management Strategies ◽

Human Consumption ◽

Agricultural Pests ◽

Tropical Regions ◽

Pests And Diseases ◽

Thrips Species ◽

Rising Sea Levels

The world population is expected to exceed 9 billion by 2050 and most of this growth will occur in developing countries. As population increases, more arable lands will be used to construct cities and these activities increase CO2 in the atmosphere and contribute to climate change. Climate assessments have shown rising sea levels and increase in the frequency of droughts in many dry areas. Prolonged droughts can decrease the relative amounts of water available for human consumption and agriculture. In developing countries agriculture contributes to more than 15% of GDP and when crops and livestock are deprived of water they become more susceptible to pests and diseases. As climate change continues to occur there is a need to develop strategies to manage key invasive pest and disease species that threaten agricultural production. Thrips are major agricultural pests with the majority of species in tropical regions. They are cosmopolitan in nature and damage crops when they feed and lay eggs in many parts of the plant. Thrips are also vectors for spreading plant diseases. They disperse quickly into new areas where susceptible hosts exist. This chapter focuses on a few important thrips species that threatens agricultural production in the Americas including Central and South America and the Caribbean. The chapter discusses the ecology and pest management strategies for key invasive thrips species and examines the potential effects of climate change on these troublesome species.

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Examining Yam Production in Response to Climate Change in Nigeria: A Co-Integration Model Approach

Social Sciences ◽

10.3390/socsci9040042 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 9 (4) ◽

pp. 42

Author(s):

Cynthia W. Angba ◽

Richard N. Baines ◽

Allan J. Butler

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Error Correction ◽

Trend Analysis ◽

Linear Trend ◽

Error Correction Model ◽

Series Data ◽

Integration Model ◽

Correction Model ◽

Linear Trend Analysis ◽

Model Approach

This study addressed yam production in response to climate change in Cross River State using a co-integration model approach. The specific objectives of this paper are to analyze the trend in yam production, annual precipitation, and annual temperature, and to analyze the impact of climate variables on yam production. Time-series data from 1996 to 2017 was used. Based on the analysis, which constituted a linear trend analysis, co-integration test, and error correction model, the study came up with robust findings. The linear trend analysis for yam production revealed a steady increase in output between the years 2005 and 2016. The result of the rainfall trend analysis showed the presence of rainfall variability and irregularity. The trend line for temperature showed an overall downward trend for the period under study. However, the Error Correction Model result showed that temperature was statistically significant and negatively impacted yam production. The study recommends that policymakers should take appropriate steps to encourage the development of pest- and disease-tolerant yam varieties because an increase in temperature leads to the proliferation of insects, pests, and diseases.

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Bottom-Up Assessment of Climate Risk and the Robustness of Proposed Flood Management Strategies in the American River, CA

Water ◽

10.3390/w12030907 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 12 (3) ◽

pp. 907

Author(s):

Kara DiFrancesco ◽

Alix Gitelman ◽

David Purkey

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Decision Making ◽

Cost Effectiveness ◽

Management Strategies ◽

Flood Management ◽

Flood Frequency ◽

Bottom Up ◽

American River ◽

The Face ◽

System Robustness

The hydrologic nonstationarity and uncertainty associated with climate change requires new decision-making methods to incorporate climate change impacts into flood frequency and flood risk analyses. To aid decision-making under climate change, we developed a bottom-up approach for assessing the performance of flood management systems under climate uncertainty and nonstationarity. The developed bottom-up approach was applied to the American River, CA, USA flood management system by first identifying the sensitivity and vulnerability of the system to different climates. To do this, we developed a climate response surface by calculating and plotting Expected Annual Damages (EAD, $/year) under different flood regimes. Next, we determined a range of plausible future climate change and flood frequency scenarios by applying Bayesian statistical methods to projected future flows derived from a Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model forced with Global Circulation Model (GCM) output. We measured system robustness as the portion of plausible future scenarios under which the current flood system could meet its performance goal. Using this approach, we then evaluated the robustness of four proposed management strategies in the 2012 Central Valley Flood Protection Plan in terms of both flood risk and cost-effectiveness, to assess the performance of the strategies in the face of climate risks. Results indicated that the high sensitivity of the expected damages to changes in flood regimes makes the system extremely vulnerable to a large portion of the plausible range of future flood conditions. The management strategy that includes a combination of nature-based flood management actions along with engineered structures yields the greatest potential to increase system robustness in terms of maintaining EAD below an acceptable risk threshold. However, this strategy still leaves the system vulnerable to a wide range of plausible future conditions. As flood frequency regimes increase in intensity from the current conditions, the cost-effectiveness of the management strategies increases, to a point, before decreasing. This bottom up analysis demonstrated a viable decision-making approach for water managers in the face of uncertain and changing future conditions. Neglecting to use such an approach and omitting climate considerations from water resource planning could lead to strategies that do not perform as expected or which actually lead to mal-adaptations, increasing vulnerability to climate change.

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Climate change adaptation in coastal zones: Improving decision-making to support management strategies

IOP Conference Series Earth and Environmental Science ◽

10.1088/1755-1307/6/35/352037 ◽

2009 ◽

Vol 6 (35) ◽

pp. 352037

Author(s):

S Torresan ◽

A Critto ◽

Francesco Santoro ◽

A Marcomini

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Decision Making ◽

Climate Change Adaptation ◽

Management Strategies ◽

Coastal Zones

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Impact of Climate Change on a Key Agricultural Pest

Advances in Environmental Engineering and Green Technologies - Environmental Sustainability and Climate Change Adaptation Strategies ◽

10.4018/978-1-5225-1607-1.ch009 ◽

2017 ◽

pp. 232-254

Author(s):

Tamika A. Garrick ◽

Oscar E. Liburd

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Developing Countries ◽

Agricultural Production ◽

Management Strategies ◽

Human Consumption ◽

Agricultural Pests ◽

Tropical Regions ◽

Pests And Diseases ◽

Thrips Species ◽

Rising Sea Levels

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Increasing heat and rainfall extremes now far outside the historical climate

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science ◽

10.1038/s41612-021-00202-w ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 4 (1) ◽

Author(s):

Alexander Robinson ◽

Jascha Lehmann ◽

David Barriopedro ◽

Stefan Rahmstorf ◽

Dim Coumou

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Global Warming ◽

Linear Trend ◽

Anthropogenic Climate Change ◽

Small Shift ◽

Tropical Regions ◽

Historical Climate ◽

The World ◽

Rainfall Extremes ◽

Heat Extremes

AbstractOver the last decade, the world warmed by 0.25 °C, in-line with the roughly linear trend since the 1970s. Here we present updated analyses showing that this seemingly small shift has led to the emergence of heat extremes that would be virtually impossible without anthropogenic global warming. Also, record rainfall extremes have continued to increase worldwide and, on average, 1 in 4 rainfall records in the last decade can be attributed to climate change. Tropical regions, comprised of vulnerable countries that typically contributed least to anthropogenic climate change, continue to see the strongest increase in extremes.

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Environment Analysis with Temperature Change in Jarud in Recent 59 Years

Advanced Materials Research ◽

10.4028/www.scientific.net/amr.788.253 ◽

2013 ◽

Vol 788 ◽

pp. 253-257

Author(s):

Hua Chun ◽

Tu Ya Alateng

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Trend Analysis ◽

Temperature Change ◽

Linear Trend ◽

Variance Analysis ◽

Decadal Variation ◽

Environment Analysis ◽

Mean Temperature ◽

Change Characteristics ◽

Linear Trend Analysis

By means of the linear trend analysis and accumulated variance analysis, the climate change characteristics of temperature from 1953 to 2011 in Jarud Banner were analyzed. The results showed that temperature of annual and seasonal in Jarud has risen in recent 59 years; especially in spring. The decadal variation of annual mean temperature went down greatly since1950s, and began to increase since in the late 1980s, while it showed most obvious trend since 21stcentury. The cold phase was from 1953 to 1986 and warm phase from 1987 to 2011.

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Modelling ecosystem adaptation and dangerous rates of global warming

Emerging Topics in Life Sciences ◽

10.1042/etls20180113 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 3 (2) ◽

pp. 221-231 ◽

Cited By ~ 4

Author(s):

Rebecca Millington ◽

Peter M. Cox ◽

Jonathan R. Moore ◽

Gabriel Yvon-Durocher

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Global Warming ◽

Diffusion Rate ◽

Individual Species ◽

Genetic Evolution ◽

Rates Of Change ◽

Rapid Climate Change ◽

Warming Climate ◽

Intraspecies Competition ◽

High Trait

Abstract We are in a period of relatively rapid climate change. This poses challenges for individual species and threatens the ecosystem services that humanity relies upon. Temperature is a key stressor. In a warming climate, individual organisms may be able to shift their thermal optima through phenotypic plasticity. However, such plasticity is unlikely to be sufficient over the coming centuries. Resilience to warming will also depend on how fast the distribution of traits that define a species can adapt through other methods, in particular through redistribution of the abundance of variants within the population and through genetic evolution. In this paper, we use a simple theoretical ‘trait diffusion’ model to explore how the resilience of a given species to climate change depends on the initial trait diversity (biodiversity), the trait diffusion rate (mutation rate), and the lifetime of the organism. We estimate theoretical dangerous rates of continuous global warming that would exceed the ability of a species to adapt through trait diffusion, and therefore lead to a collapse in the overall productivity of the species. As the rate of adaptation through intraspecies competition and genetic evolution decreases with species lifetime, we find critical rates of change that also depend fundamentally on lifetime. Dangerous rates of warming vary from 1°C per lifetime (at low trait diffusion rate) to 8°C per lifetime (at high trait diffusion rate). We conclude that rapid climate change is liable to favour short-lived organisms (e.g. microbes) rather than longer-lived organisms (e.g. trees).

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KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT STRATEGIES AND INTERNAL DYNAMICS AS KEY DETERMINANTS OF RESOURCE OPTIMIZATION AND DECISION-MAKING QUALITY DURING NSD

10.15444/gmc2014.01.02.03 ◽

2014 ◽

Author(s):

Achilleas Boukis ◽

Spiros Gounaris

Keyword(s):

Decision Making ◽

Knowledge Management ◽

Management Strategies ◽

Resource Optimization ◽

Internal Dynamics

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Twelfth Century AD

10.1093/oso/9780199329199.003.0008 ◽

2017 ◽

Author(s):

Lonnie G. Thompson ◽

Alan L. Kolata

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Southern Oscillation ◽

Sediment Cores ◽

Critical Role ◽

Lake Titicaca ◽

Independent Evidence ◽

Tropical Regions ◽

Ice Cap ◽

Paleoclimate Records ◽

Past Climate Change

Climate is a fundamental and independent variable of human existence. Given that 50 percent of the Earth’s surface and much of its population exist between 30oN and 30oS, paleoenvironmental research in the Earth’s tropical regions is vital to our understanding of the world’s current and past climate change. Most of the solar energy that drives the climate system is absorbed in these regions. Paleoclimate records reveal that tropical processes, such as variations in the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), have affected the climate over much of the planet. Climatic variations, particularly in precipitation and temperature, play a critical role in the adaptations of agrarian cultures located in zones of environmental sensitivity, such as those of the coastal deserts, highlands, and altiplano of the Andean region. Paleoclimate records from the Quelccaya ice cap (5670 masl) in highland Peru that extend back ~1800 years show good correlation between precipitation and the rise and fall of pre-Hispanic civilizations in western Peru and Bolivia. Sediment cores extracted from Lake Titicaca provide independent evidence of this correspondence with particular reference to the history of the pre-Hispanic Tiwanaku state centered in the Andean altiplano. Here we explore, in particular, the impacts of climate change on the development and ultimate dissolution of this altiplano state.

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