scholarly journals Seasonal influenza: Modelling approaches to capture immunity propagation

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Edward M. Hill ◽  
Stavros Petrou ◽  
Simon de Lusignan ◽  
Ivelina Yonova ◽  
Matt J. Keeling
Keyword(s):  
Seasonal Influenza ◽  
Risk Groups ◽  
Vaccine Uptake ◽  
Transmission Model ◽  
Natural Immunity ◽  
Global Public Health ◽  
Multiple Data ◽  
Influenza Case ◽  
Approximate Bayesian ◽  
Protection Against Infection

AbstractSeasonal influenza poses serious problems for global public health, being a significant contributor to morbidity and mortality. In England, there has been a long-standing national vaccination programme, with vaccination of at-risk groups and children offering partial protection against infection. Transmission models have been a fundamental component of analysis, informing the efficient use of limited resources. However, these models generally treat each season and each strain circulating within that season in isolation. Here, we amalgamate multiple data sources to calibrate a susceptible-latent-infected-recovered type transmission model for seasonal influenza, incorporating the four main strains and mechanisms linking prior season epidemiological out-comes to immunity at the beginning of the following season. Data pertaining to nine influenza seasons, starting with the 2009/10 season, informed our estimates for epidemiological processes, virological sample positivity, vaccine uptake and efficacy attributes, and general practitioner influenza-like-illness consultations as reported by the Royal College of General Practitioners (RCGP) Research and Surveillance Centre (RSC). We performed parameter inference via approximate Bayesian computation to assess strain transmissibility, dependence of present season influenza immunity on prior protection, and variability in the influenza case ascertainment across seasons. This produced reasonable agreement between model and data on the annual strain composition. Parameter fits indicated that the propagation of immunity from one season to the next is weaker if vaccine derived, compared to natural immunity from infection. Projecting the dynamics forward in time suggests that while historic immunity plays an important role in determining annual strain composition, the variability in vaccine efficacy hampers our ability to make long-term predictions.

scholarly journals Trends in seasonal influenza vaccine distribution in the European Union: 2003-4 to 2007-8

2008 ◽  
Vol 13 (43) ◽  
Author(s):  
M Rodríguez de Azero ◽  
Collective the European Vaccine Manufacturers Influenza Working Group
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Influenza Vaccine ◽  
Dose Distribution ◽  
Seasonal Influenza ◽  
Vaccine Dose ◽  
Risk Groups ◽  
Vaccine Uptake ◽  
World Health ◽  
Distribution Data ◽  
Vaccine Distribution

Seasonal influenza is widely regarded as a continuing threat to public health, with vaccination remaining the principal measure of prophylaxis. In 2003, the World Health Organization issued targets for influenza vaccine coverage in the elderly of at least 50% by 2006 and 75% by 2010, endorsed by the European Parliament in two resolutions in 2005 and 2006. However, a number of European public health systems lack mechanisms to assess progress in influenza vaccine uptake. The European Vaccine Manufacturers group (EVM) undertook a Europe-wide survey of vaccine distribution over the last five seasons (between 2003 and 2008) to provide baseline data from which vaccination trends may be extrapolated. The survey data showed that the dose distribution level per capita in the 27 EU countries increased from 17% in 2003-4 to 20% in 2006-7; this growth was not maintained in the season 2007-8. Even without information on which age or risk groups received the vaccine, an immunisation rate of approximately 20% of the whole population falls short of the public health goal by more than half: an estimated 49% of the total population fall into risk groups recommended to receive the influenza vaccine in Europe. These data provide the only systematic review of vaccine dose distribution across Europe from a uniform source. Although they represent an important baseline parameter, age- and risk-group related vaccine uptake data with sufficient detail are needed to assist public health policy decision making, immunisation planning and monitoring. In light of this situation, and to support the improvement of immunisation rates across the EU, EVM aims to provide dose distribution data for each influenza season to assist Member States in the implementation of local immunisation policies.

scholarly journals Seasonal influenza vaccination: from hesitancy to social norm

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (3) ◽  
pp. 902
Author(s):  
Asif Parvez Malik ◽  
Sanjeewa Sumathipala
Keyword(s):  
High Risk ◽  
Influenza Vaccination ◽  
Healthcare Workers ◽  
Seasonal Influenza ◽  
Social Norm ◽  
Disease Risk ◽  
Vaccine Coverage ◽  
Risk Groups ◽  
Vaccine Uptake ◽  
World Health

Seasonal influenza is of the most globally burdening vaccine-preventable diseases, infecting 3-5 billion people annually and according to the World Health Organisation (WHO) resulting in 250,000 to 500,000 deaths worldwide. Vaccination against influenza and all respiratory infections carries greater emphasis in the light of the COVID-19 pandemic. With added pressure on healthcare systems due to the coronavirus, Qatar is one country that is keen to emphasise the importance of influenza vaccination to prevent potential co-infection causing severe disease especially in high-risk groups. Currently seasonal influenza vaccines protect against 3 or 4 strains with revised data from the WHO twice yearly due to the changing natures of strains helping to maximise efficacy of the vaccines. It is recommended for specific high-risk groups to be prioritised for vaccination, including pregnant women, the elderly, children above 6 months of age, patients with chronic conditions as well as front line healthcare workers with risk of exposure. However, uptake of the vaccine remains low and contributes significantly to the burden of the disease. Barriers to vaccine uptake can be physical, such as unhealthy lifestyles, psychological, such as perception of disease as low-risk, contextual, such as lack of access to vaccinations, or sociodemographic, such as living alone. Vaccine coverage can be increased by knowledge of these barriers and how to address them. The physical barriers highlight the need to support behavioural change in lifestyle in order to increase vaccine uptake. Psychological barriers, usually due to misconceptions, can be addressed with education through public health campaigns and interactions between health professionals and patients. This education is not just a need for patients but also healthcare workers. It is up to healthcare providers and contractors to find ways of addressing contextual and sociodemographic barriers by increasing access to vaccination whether through transport, or home–care etc. A key barrier of those mentioned to vaccination is a lack of knowledge which needs to be addressed though positive discussions about the health benefits of immunisation as well as the traditional idea of disease-risk prevention. Addressing the above barriers will help to increase vaccine uptake, and produce health-conscientious societies where vaccination becomes a social norm.

scholarly journals Willingness to Receive the COVID-19 and Seasonal Influenza Vaccines among the Saudi Population and Vaccine Uptake During the Initial Stage of the National Vaccination Campaign: A Cross-Sectional Survey

Vaccines ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (7) ◽  
pp. 765
Author(s):  
Amel Ahmed Fayed ◽  
Abeer Salem Al Shahrani ◽  
Leenah Tawfiq Almanea ◽  
Nardeen Ibrahim Alsweed ◽  
Layla Mohammed Almarzoug ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Saudi Arabia ◽  
Perceived Risk ◽  
Online Survey ◽  
Seasonal Influenza ◽  
Vaccination Campaign ◽  
Vaccine Uptake ◽  
Influenza Vaccines ◽  
Vaccine Hesitancy ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
To Receive

This study aimed to assess the willingness to receive the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and seasonal influenza vaccines and vaccine uptake during the early stage of the national vaccination campaign in Saudi Arabia. A cross-sectional online survey was conducted among adult Saudis between 20 January and 20 March 2021. The questionnaire addressed vaccine hesitancy, perceived risk, willingness, and vaccine uptake. Approximately 39% of the participants expressed vaccine hesitancy, and 29.8% and 24% felt highly vulnerable to contracting COVID-19 and seasonal influenza, respectively. The majority (59.5%) were willing to receive the COVID-19 vaccine, although only 31.7% were willing to receive the flu vaccine. Adjusted analysis showed that vaccine hesitancy (OR 0.34, 95% CI 0.27–0.43) and the perception of being at high risk (OR 2.78, 95% CI 1.68–4.60) independently affected the intention to be vaccinated. Vaccine hesitancy was similar among those who were willing to be vaccinated (29.8%) and those who had already been vaccinated (33.1%). The perceived risk was significantly higher among those who had been vaccinated (48.1%) than among those who were willing to be vaccinated but had not yet been vaccinated (29.1%). In conclusion, the acceptance of the COVID-19 vaccine in Saudi Arabia is high. Saudis who received the vaccine had a similar level of vaccine hesitancy and a higher level of perceived risk.

scholarly journals Risk Factors for Pneumonia and Death in Adult Patients With Seasonal Influenza and Establishment of Prediction Scores: A Population-Based Study

2021 ◽  
Vol 8 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Koichi Miyashita ◽  
Eiji Nakatani ◽  
Hironao Hozumi ◽  
Yoko Sato ◽  
Yoshiki Miyachi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
High Risk ◽  
Seasonal Influenza ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Validation Cohort ◽  
Risk Groups ◽  
Population Based ◽  
Limited Data ◽  
Population Based Study ◽  
Relative Risks ◽  
Primary Care Settings

Abstract Background Seasonal influenza remains a global health problem; however, there are limited data on the specific relative risks for pneumonia and death among outpatients considered to be at high risk for influenza complications. This population-based study aimed to develop prediction models for determining the risk of influenza-related pneumonia and death. Methods We included patients diagnosed with laboratory-confirmed influenza between 2016 and 2017 (main cohort, n = 25 659), those diagnosed between 2015 and 2016 (validation cohort 1, n = 16 727), and those diagnosed between 2017 and 2018 (validation cohort 2, n = 34 219). Prediction scores were developed based on the incidence and independent predictors of pneumonia and death identified using multivariate analyses, and patients were categorized into low-, medium-, and high-risk groups based on total scores. Results In the main cohort, age, gender, and certain comorbidities (dementia, congestive heart failure, diabetes, and others) were independent predictors of pneumonia and death. The 28-day pneumonia incidence was 0.5%, 4.1%, and 10.8% in the low-, medium-, and high-risk groups, respectively (c-index, 0.75); the 28-day mortality was 0.05%, 0.7%, and 3.3% in the low-, medium-, and high-risk groups, respectively (c-index, 0.85). In validation cohort 1, c-indices for the models for pneumonia and death were 0.75 and 0.87, respectively. In validation cohort 2, c-indices for the models were 0.74 and 0.87, respectively. Conclusions We successfully developed and validated simple-to-use risk prediction models, which would promptly provide useful information for treatment decisions in primary care settings.

scholarly journals Perceptions of Seasonal Influenza Vaccine Among U.S. Army Civilians and Dependents in the Kaiserslautern Military Community: A Mixed-Methods Survey

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Veronica M Burns ◽  
Fritz M Castillo ◽  
Rodney L Coldren ◽  
Trisha Prosser ◽  
Renee L Howell ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Online Survey ◽  
Seasonal Influenza ◽  
Medical Center ◽  
Vaccine Uptake ◽  
Free Text ◽  
Chi Square ◽  
Military Health ◽  
Influenza Outbreak ◽  
Flu Vaccination ◽  
Flu Vaccine

ABSTRACT Introduction Influenza is a globally occurring viral respiratory infection that can lead to hospitalizations and death. An influenza outbreak can interfere with combat readiness in a military setting, as the infection can incapacitate soldiers. Vaccination remains the most effective tool to prevent and mitigate seasonal influenza. Although influenza vaccinations for U.S. Army soldiers can be monitored through military health systems, those systems cannot capture DoD civilians and Army dependents who may not use military health services. This study aims to gauge flu vaccine uptake and perceptions in U.S. Army civilians and dependents. Materials and Methods An online survey was e-mailed to civilian and dependent enrollees of Landstuhl Regional Medical Center. The survey contained 24 questions pertaining to demographics, vaccine history, history of the flu, and beliefs toward vaccines. Chi-square tests, t-tests, and logistic regressions were performed to investigate the association between demographic, behavior, and belief factors with vaccine uptake. Free-text answers were coded and categorized by themes. Results Over 70% of respondents were vaccinated for the flu. There were differences between vaccinated and unvaccinated respondents regarding their perceptions of barriers to vaccination, benefits of the flu vaccine, severity of flu symptoms, and personal risk of getting ill with the flu. After controlling for confounders, flu vaccination in the previous season and healthcare worker status were associated with increased vaccine uptake, while perceived barriers to influenza vaccination were associated with decreased vaccine uptake. Conclusions Flu vaccine uptake may be increased by increasing access to vaccination, promoting vaccination and addressing concerns at the provider level, and engaging positively framed public messaging. Increasing flu vaccine uptake is of particular importance as the flu season approaches during the COVID-19 (Coronavirus disease 2019) pandemic.

Uptake and Beliefs Regarding Seasonal Influenza Vaccination Among Childcare Center Staff, Administrators, and Parents

2016 ◽  
Vol 38 (3) ◽  
pp. 367-370 ◽  
Author(s):  
Terri Rebmann ◽  
Travis M. Loux ◽  
Brendan Daly
Keyword(s):  
Influenza Vaccine ◽  
Seasonal Influenza ◽  
Response Rate ◽  
Vaccine Uptake ◽  
Agency Staff ◽  
Seasonal Influenza Vaccine ◽  
Center Staff ◽  
Perceived Seriousness ◽  
Logistic Regressions ◽  
Childcare Center

Surveys were distributed to parents and childcare agency staff to determine seasonal influenza vaccine uptake. Multivariate logistic regressions identified vaccination determinants. Overall, 351 parents and staff participated (response rate, 32%). One-half (168 [48%]) received vaccine. Vaccination predictors included healthcare provider or employer recommendation, perceived seriousness, and no vaccine fear.Infect Control Hosp Epidemiol 2017;38:367–370

scholarly journals Vaccinating Adolescents and Children Significantly Reduces COVID-19 Morbidity and Mortality across All Ages: A Popula-Tion-Based Modeling Study Using the UK as an Example

Vaccines ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (10) ◽  
pp. 1180
Author(s):  
Tinevimbo Shiri ◽  
Marc Evans ◽  
Carla A. Talarico ◽  
Angharad R. Morgan ◽  
Maaz Mussad ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Disease Transmission ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Population Level ◽  
Vital Role ◽  
Morbidity And Mortality ◽  
Transmission Model ◽  
Base Case ◽  
Global Public Health ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Impact

Debate persists around the risk–benefit balance of vaccinating adolescents and children against COVID-19. Central to this debate is quantifying the contribution of adolescents and children to the transmission of SARS-CoV-2, and the potential impact of vaccinating these age groups. In this study, we present a novel SEIR mathematical disease transmission model that quantifies the impact of different vaccination strategies on population-level SARS-CoV-2 infections and clinical outcomes. The model employs both age- and time-dependent social mixing patterns to capture the impact of changes in restrictions. The model was used to assess the impact of vaccinating adolescents and children on the natural history of the COVID-19 pandemic across all age groups, using the UK as an example. The base case model demonstrates significant increases in COVID-19 disease burden in the UK following a relaxation of restrictions, if vaccines are limited to those ≥18 years and vulnerable adolescents (≥12 years). Including adolescents and children in the vaccination program could reduce overall COVID-related mortality by 57%, and reduce cases of long COVID by 75%. This study demonstrates that vaccinating adolescents and children has the potential to play a vital role in reducing SARS-CoV-2 infections, and subsequent COVID-19 morbidity and mortality, across all ages. Our results have major global public health implications and provide valuable information to inform a potential pandemic exit strategy.

scholarly journals Influenza Vaccination Hesitancy among Healthcare Workers in South Al Batinah Governorate in Oman: A Cross-Sectional Study

Vaccines ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (4) ◽  
pp. 661
Author(s):  
Salah T. Al Awaidy ◽  
Zayid K. Al Mayahi ◽  
Malak Kaddoura ◽  
Ozayr Mahomed ◽  
Nathalie Lahoud ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Influenza Vaccine ◽  
Influenza Vaccination ◽  
Healthcare Workers ◽  
Seasonal Influenza ◽  
General Medicine ◽  
Knowledge Score ◽  
Vaccine Uptake ◽  
Cross Sectional Survey ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Increased Risk

Background: Seasonal influenza infections are a major cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide. Healthcare workers (HCWs) are an important target group for vaccination against influenza due to their increased risk of infection and their potential to transmit the infection to their patients, families and communities. The aim of this study was to assess the potential hesitancy and its associated factors towards influenza vaccination amongst HCWs in the South Al Batinah governorate in Oman. Methods: A cross-sectional survey of 390 HCWs with direct or indirect patient contact was conducted in May and June 2019 using a self-administered questionnaire. Associations between HCW characteristics and vaccination status were examined using bivariate and multivariate analyses to identify the likelihood of vaccination against seasonal influenza among HCWs. Results: Overall, 60% of HCWs were vaccinated in the 2018/2019 season; vaccine uptake among nurses was 52% and uptake was higher among women. Self-protection and protection of the community were the most cited reasons for vaccine acceptance, with side effects being the main reason for hesitancy. Vaccinated respondents had a higher mean knowledge score (7.18; standard deviation SD: 2.14) than unvaccinated respondents (6.30; SD: 2.2). Odds of vaccination were highest among respondents who believed influenza vaccine should be mandatory for HCWs (Odds ratio (OR): 2.04 [1.30–3.18]), those working in the general medicine, emergency medicine, or intensive care units (OR: 1.92 [1.20–3.10]), nurses and doctors (OR: 1.75 [1.09–2.79]) and those who believe that HCWs should receive an influenza vaccine (OR: 1.35 [1.07–2.77]). Conclusions: The study provides valuable insights into the enablers and barriers of influenza vaccination practices among HCWs and may inform interventions to increase acceptance of vaccination.

scholarly journals Tweeting the #flushot: Beliefs, Barriers, and Threats During Different Periods of the 2018 to 2019 Flu Season

2020 ◽  
Vol 11 ◽  
pp. 215013272093272
Author(s):  
Jeanine P.D. Guidry ◽  
Lucinda L. Austin ◽  
Nicole H. O’Donnell ◽  
Ioana A. Coman ◽  
Alessandro Lovari ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Social Media ◽  
Seasonal Influenza ◽  
Health Belief ◽  
Vaccine Uptake ◽  
Health Organizations ◽  
Conspiracy Theories ◽  
Quantitative Content ◽  
Public Health Organizations ◽  
Flu Vaccine ◽  
Belief Model

Influenza epidemics happen every year, with more than 8 million severe cases in 2017. The most effective way to prevent seasonal influenza is vaccination. In recent years, misinformation regarding vaccines abounds on social media, but the flu vaccine is relatively understudied in this area, and the current study is the first 1 to explore the content and nature of influenza information that is shared on Twitter, comparing tweets published in the early flu season with those posted in peak flu season. Using a quantitative content analysis, 1000 tweets from both parts of the flu season were analyzed for use of Health Belief Model (HBM) variables, engagement, and flu vaccine specific variables. Findings show several promising opportunities for health organizations and professionals: HBM constructs were present more frequently than in previous, related studies, and fewer vaccine-hesitant tweets appear to be present. However, the presence of high barriers to flu vaccine uptake increased significantly from early to peak season, including an increase in the mention of conspiracy theories. Flu vaccine related tweets appear to vary in misinformation level and density throughout the flu season. While this should be confirmed by further studies over multiple flu seasons, this a finding that should be considered by public health organizations when developing flu vaccine campaigns on social media.

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