scholarly journals Identifying robust strategies for assisted migration in a competitive stochastic metacommunity

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gregory A. Backus ◽  
Marissa L. Baskett
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Extinction Risk ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Dispersal Ability ◽  
Assisted Migration ◽  
Management Scenarios ◽  
Community Interactions ◽  
Competitive Model ◽  
Donor Population ◽  
Population Sizes

AbstractAssisted migration is the translocation of species beyond their historical range to locations that are expected to be more suitable under future climate change. However, a relocated population might fail to establish within its donor community if there is high uncertainty in decision making, climate, and interactions with the recipient ecological community. To quantify the benefit to persistence and risk of establishment failure of assisted migration under different management scenarios, we built a stochastic metacommunity model to simulate several species reproducing, dispersing, and competing on a temperature gradient as temperature increases over time. Without assisted migration, the species in our model were vulnerable to climate change if they had low population sizes, short dispersal, and strong poleword competition. When relocating species that exemplified these traits, assisted migration increased the long-term persistence of the species most when relocating a fraction of the donor population, even if the remaining population was very small or rapidly declining. This suggests that leaving behind a fraction of the population could be a robust approach, allowing managers to repeat assisted migration in case they move the species at the wrong place and wrong time, especially when it is difficult to identify a species’ optimal climate. We found that assisted migration was most beneficial to species with low dispersal ability and least beneficial to species with narrow thermal tolerances, for which assisted migration increased extinction risk on average. Lastly, while relocation did not affect the persistence of non-target species in our simple competitive model, researchers will need to consider a more complete set of community interactions to comprehensively understand invasion potential.

scholarly journals Sea-louse abundance on salmon farms in relation to parasite-control policy and climate change

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sean C Godwin ◽  
Martin Krkosek ◽  
John D Reynolds ◽  
Andrew W Bateman
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
High Temperature ◽  
Current System ◽  
Control Policy ◽  
Sea Lice ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Parasite Control ◽  
Management Scenarios ◽  
Farmed Fish ◽  
Wild Salmon

Abstract The ectoparasitic copepods, sea lice (Lepeophtheirus salmonis and Caligus spp.), are major pests to salmon aquaculture and can also affect the health and survival of wild salmon. Policies exist to protect wild salmon by delousing farmed fish when louse abundance exceeds a threshold, but their effectiveness under future climate change is uncertain. We fitted a Bayesian model for sea-louse population dynamics and management to timeseries data of sea lice on farmed salmon in Pacific Canada and analysed the model under scenarios of warmer climates. We found that in high-temperature years, current parasite control policy becomes ineffective as sea-louse abundance is expected to increase. We simulated two alternative management scenarios and observed that both would decrease average louse counts on farms in high-temperature years relative to the current system but relied on more delousing treatments than are currently performed. We also found evidence that non-salmonids can play a role in louse transmission to farms, as increased farm colonization of Caligus clemensi occurs in April, coincident with wild herring (Clupea pallasii) spawner abundance. Our results highlight the need for careful management of sea lice on salmon farms in warmer years and the importance of policies designed to account for future environmental change.

Adapting forest ecosystems to climate change by identifying the range of acceptable human interventions in western Canada

2019 ◽  
Vol 49 (5) ◽  
pp. 553-564 ◽  
Author(s):  
Molly Moshofsky ◽  
Haris R. Gilani ◽  
Robert A. Kozak
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Forest Management ◽  
Adaptation Strategies ◽  
The Other ◽  
Assisted Migration ◽  
Cultural Cognition ◽  
Management Scenarios ◽  
Management Interventions ◽  
Human Interventions ◽  
Perceived Acceptance

Forest management is presently undergoing major changes to adapt to climate change. This research examines the variation in perceived acceptability of potential forest management interventions that can mitigate the risks of climate change among rural forest-based communities in British Columbia and Alberta. In each of the four study communities, three focus groups composed of foresters, environmentalists, and local citizens were consulted. A Q-sort exercise was utilized to measure the perceived acceptance of a set of nine forest adaptation management scenarios that represented a spectrum of human interventions in forested ecosystems. The theory of Cultural Cognition of Risk was applied as a theoretical framework to analyze the way in which participants perceived adaptation strategies. Results indicate that foresters perceived the strategies based on assisted migration as being relatively less acceptable compared with the other social groups, while environmentalists prioritized adaptation strategies that featured mixed species, and local citizens perceived all of the adaptation strategies more neutrally. Cultural Cognition of Risk theory was determined to play a role in shaping perceptions of the adaptation strategies in that individualists tended to accept the local-based strategies while opposing the assisted migration based strategies. Conversely, hierarchists perceived assisted migration based strategies more favourably than the other cultural groups.

scholarly journals Population extinctions driven by climate change, population size, and time since observation may make rare species databases inaccurate

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thomas Kaye ◽  
Matt A Bahm ◽  
Andrea S Thorpe ◽  
Erin C Gray ◽  
Ian Pfingsten ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Population Size ◽  
Rare Species ◽  
Biological Diversity ◽  
Extinction Risk ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Small Population ◽  
Population Extinction ◽  
Population Sizes ◽  
Potential Signal

Loss of biological diversity through population extinctions is a global phenomenon that threatens many ecosystems. Managers often rely on databases of rare species locations to plan land use actions and conserve at-risk taxa, so it is crucial that the information they contain is accurate and dependable. However, climate change, small population sizes, and long gaps between surveys may be leading to undetected extinctions of many populations. We used repeated survey records for a rare but widespread orchid, Cypripedium fasciculatum (clustered lady's slipper), to model population extinction risk based on elevation, population size, and time between observations. Population size was negatively associated with extinction, while elevation and time between observations interacted such that low elevation populations were most vulnerable to extinction, but only over larger time spans. We interpret population losses at low elevations as a potential signal of climate change impacts. We used this model to estimate the probability of persistence of populations across California and Oregon, and found that 31%-56% of the 2415 populations reported in databases from this region are likely extinct. Managers should be aware that the number of populations of rare species in their databases is potentially an overestimate, and consider resurveying these populations to document their presence and condition, with priority given to older reports of small populations, especially those at low elevations or in other areas with high climate vulnerability.

scholarly journals Distributional dynamics of a vulnerable species in response to past and future climate change: a window for conservation prospects

PeerJ ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 6 ◽  
pp. e4287 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yunjun Bai ◽  
Xueping Wei ◽  
Xiaoqiang Li
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Late Quaternary ◽  
Conservation Strategies ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Dispersal Ability ◽  
Vulnerable Species ◽  
Long Distance ◽  
Historical Perspectives ◽  
The Future ◽  
Distributional Dynamics

BackgroundThe ongoing change in climate is predicted to exert unprecedented effects on Earth’s biodiversity at all levels of organization. Biological conservation is important to prevent biodiversity loss, especially for species facing a high risk of extinction. Understanding the past responses of species to climate change is helpful for revealing response mechanisms, which will contribute to the development of effective conservation strategies in the future.MethodsIn this study, we modelled the distributional dynamics of a ‘Vulnerable’ species,Pseudolarix amabilis, in response to late Quaternary glacial-interglacial cycles and future 2080 climate change using an ecological niche model (MaxEnt). We also performed migration vector analysis to reveal the potential migration of the population over time.ResultsHistorical modelling indicates that the range dynamics ofP. amabilisis highly sensitive to climate change and that its long-distance dispersal ability and potential for evolutionary adaption are limited. Compared to the current climatically suitable areas for this species, future modelling showed significant migration northward towards future potential climatically suitable areas.DiscussionIn combination with the predicted future distribution, the mechanism revealed by the historical response suggests that this species will not be able to fully occupy the future expanded areas of suitable climate or adapt to the unsuitable climate across the future contraction regions. As a result, we suggest assisted migration as an effective supplementary means of conserving this vulnerable species in the face of the unprecedentedly rapid climate change of the 21st century. As a study case, this work highlights the significance of introducing historical perspectives while researching species conservation, especially for currently vulnerable or endangered taxa that once had a wider distribution in geological time.

scholarly journals Habitat transformation and climate change: Implications for the distribution, population status, and colony extinction of Southern Bald Ibis (Geronticus calvus) in southern Africa

The Condor ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 122 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Robin B Colyn ◽  
Catherine L Henderson ◽  
Res Altwegg ◽  
Hanneline A Smit-Robinson
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
High Altitude ◽  
Extinction Risk ◽  
Colony Growth ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Population Status ◽  
Cumulative Impact ◽  
Causal Factors ◽  
Habitat Transformation ◽  
Global Circulation Models

Abstract Habitat transformation and loss is one of the greatest threats currently facing avian species. The cumulative impact of climate change on habitat loss is projected to produce disproportionate risk for endemic high-altitude species. The Southern Bald Ibis (Geronticus calvus) is an endemic high-altitude species found throughout highland grassland habitats in South Africa and Lesotho. The historical distribution has contracted notably and causal factors remain ambiguous. Furthermore, the historical population (1950–1970) was believed to be stable, but recent local surveys suggest colony declines and the current global population status remains largely unquantified. We assessed the current distribution and population status of the species through predictive modeling and trends in historical and recent colony counts across the species’ range. We examined climate and habitat change as potential causal factors contributing to the historical contraction in distribution, and projected the potential impact of future climate change predicted by global circulation models. Our study confirms that Southern Bald Ibis are of conservation concern. The loss of grasslands to expanding woody vegetation through bush encroachment was the most detrimental habitat transformation type associated with decreased colony growth and colony collapse. We recommend maintaining a minimum threshold of 50% or greater intact grassland habitat surrounding colonies to reduce colony extinction risk and promote colony persistence.

scholarly journals Fluctuating fortunes: genomes and habitat reconstructions reveal global climate-mediated changes in bats' genetic diversity

2019 ◽  
Vol 286 (1911) ◽  
pp. 20190304 ◽  
Author(s):  
Balaji Chattopadhyay ◽  
Kritika M. Garg ◽  
Rajasri Ray ◽  
Frank E. Rheindt
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Genetic Diversity ◽  
Population Size ◽  
Effective Population Size ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Effective Population ◽  
Population Sizes ◽  
Earth’S Climate ◽  
The Impact

Over the last approximately 2.6 Myr, Earth's climate has been dominated by cyclical ice ages that have profoundly affected species' population sizes, but the impact of impending anthropogenic climate change on species’ extinction potential remains a worrying problem. We investigated 11 bat species from different taxonomic, ecological and geographical backgrounds using combined information from palaeoclimatic habitat reconstructions and genomes to analyse biotic impacts of historic climate change. We discover tightly correlated fluctuations between species' historic distribution and effective population size, identify frugivores as particularly susceptible to global warming, pinpoint large insectivores as having overall low effective population size and flag the onset of the Holocene (approx. 10–12 000 years ago) as the period with the generally lowest effective population sizes across the last approximately 1 Myr. Our study shows that combining genomic and palaeoclimatological approaches reveals effects of climatic shifts on genetic diversity and may help predict impacts of future climate change.

scholarly journals Searching for synthetic mechanisms on how biological traits mediate species responses to climate change

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Fábio Júlio Alves Borges ◽  
Rafael Loyola
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Extinction Risk ◽  
Diet Breadth ◽  
Dispersal Ability ◽  
Tropical Species ◽  
Biological Traits ◽  
Species Vulnerability ◽  
Environment Temperature ◽  
Species Responses ◽  
Different Response

Abstract: Climate change will likely be the most significant challenge faced by species in this century, and species’ ability to cope with climate change depends on their life history and ecological and evolutionary traits. Understanding how these traits mediate species’ responses is beneficial for identifying more vulnerable species or prone to extinction risk. Here, we carried out a literature review describing how four traits commonly used in vulnerability assessments (i.e. clutch size, diet breadth, dispersal ability, and climatic tolerance) may determine species vulnerability. We also portray the possible mechanisms that explain how these traits govern species responses to climate change. The literature suggests different mechanisms operating for the evaluated traits. The mechanism of response to climate change differs between species inhabiting tropical and temperate regions: while species from the temperate areas may respond positively to temperature rise, tropical species may be severely affected. Since ectotherms depend on environment temperature, they are more sensitive and present different response mechanisms from endotherms.

scholarly journals Adaptive Ecological Niche Migration does not Negate Extinction Susceptibility

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Adam Woodhouse ◽  
Sophie Jackson ◽  
Robert Jamieson ◽  
Robert Newton ◽  
Philip Sexton ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Ecological Niche ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Extinction Risk ◽  
Planktonic Foraminifera ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Disruptive Selection ◽  
Modern World ◽  
Ecological Stress ◽  
Marine Realm

Abstract Extinction rates in the modern world are currently at their highest in 66 million years and are likely to increase with projections of future climate change. Our knowledge of modern-day extinction risk is largely limited to decadal-centennial terrestrial records, while data from the marine realm is typically applied to high-order (> 1 million year) timescales. At present, it is unclear whether fossil organisms with common ancestry and ecological niche exhibit consistent indicators of ecological stress prior to extinction. The marine microfossil record, specifically that of the planktonic foraminifera, allows for high-resolution analyses of large numbers of fossil individuals with incredibly well-established ecological and phylogenetic history. Here, analysis of the isochronous extinction of two members of the planktonic foraminiferal genus Dentoglobigerina shows disruptive selection differentially compounded by permanent ecological niche migration, “pre-extinction gigantism”, and photosymbiont bleaching prior to extinction. Despite shared ecological and phylogenetic affinity and timing of extinction, the marked discrepancies observed within the pre-extinction phenotypic responses are species-specific. These behaviours may provide insights into the nature of evolution and extinction in the open ocean and can potentially assist in the recognition and understanding of marine extinction risk in response to global climate change.

scholarly journals Adaptive ecological niche migration does not negate extinction susceptibility

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Woodhouse ◽  
S. L. Jackson ◽  
R. A. Jamieson ◽  
R. J. Newton ◽  
P. F. Sexton ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Ecological Niche ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Extinction Risk ◽  
Planktonic Foraminifera ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Disruptive Selection ◽  
Modern World ◽  
Ecological Stress ◽  
Marine Realm

AbstractExtinction rates in the modern world are currently at their highest in 66 million years and are likely to increase with projections of future climate change. Our knowledge of modern-day extinction risk is largely limited to decadal-centennial terrestrial records, while data from the marine realm is typically applied to high-order (> 1 million year) timescales. At present, it is unclear whether fossil organisms with common ancestry and ecological niche exhibit consistent indicators of ecological stress prior to extinction. The marine microfossil record, specifically that of the planktonic foraminifera, allows for high-resolution analyses of large numbers of fossil individuals with incredibly well-established ecological and phylogenetic history. Here, analysis of the isochronous extinction of two members of the planktonic foraminiferal genus Dentoglobigerina shows disruptive selection differentially compounded by permanent ecological niche migration, “pre-extinction gigantism”, and photosymbiont bleaching prior to extinction. Despite shared ecological and phylogenetic affinity, and timing of extinction, the marked discrepancies observed within the pre-extinction phenotypic responses are species-specific. These behaviours may provide insights into the nature of evolution and extinction in the open ocean and can potentially assist in the recognition and understanding of marine extinction risk in response to global climate change.

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