Demographic changes and savings behavior: the experience of a developing country

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ebrahim Rezaei
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Demographic Data ◽  
Calculated Data ◽  
The Other ◽  
Demographic Changes ◽  
Savings Behavior ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Household Level ◽  
Savings Rate ◽  
The Government

PurposeThis paper aims to disclose the savings behavior of Iran's economy in the context of demographic transition.Design/methodology/approachEmploying a version of Ramsey-Cass-Koopmans growth model, this paper benefits from a broad range of data and variables which are mainly taken from the Central Bank of Iran's database. The study uses actual and calculated data to produce analogous simulated data. The data cover the 1970–2015 period. This long period provides an opportunity to simulate more valid time series. It is worth noting that due to the severe economic sanctions imposed on the Iran's economy, particularly after 2017, some most recent data have been obliterated from the sample.FindingsThe results, stemming from the simulated model, hint that; firstly, the population variable is a notable determinant of the savings rate. Secondly, the effects of a slump in the population growth rate would attenuate the savings level significantly. Thirdly, other pragmatic steps could be taken to redress the fallout of the demographic changes.Research limitations/implicationsThere are some limitations in providing broad data related to economic sectors in Iran. The savings data, for instance, are available as an aggregated time series, and if the authors had wide data of household level, they would have been able to build more detail-based model. Similar to this issue of lack of households’ income-based data, some measures such as high or low levels as well as detailed demographic data could be helpful in sophisticated household level resulting. In addition, the complex relationship between the government and social security (pension) funds, in terms of financing part of government's budget deficit by these funds, thwarts a typical researcher in using comprehensive and transparent government expenditure data in their research. In other words, the possible positive or negative role of the funds, as a related issue to the demographic changes, cannot simply be determined in the model. It might be possible after necessary corrections are carried out in the mentioned relations.Originality/valueIn fact, the problem statement in this paper is to discern how the population aging can impact the saving rates on the one hand, and to what extent its repercussion can be modified by the other theoretical-based determinants on the other. In fact, the underlying argument of the present research arises from the stylized facts concerning prognosticates of the future evolutions of the world's population. To that end, the study will use Iran's economic and demographic data.

scholarly journals Savings Behavior of Government Salaried People in Unakoti District of Tripura

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 26-37
Author(s):  
Sukharanjan Debnath
Keyword(s):  
Rural Areas ◽  
Financial Literacy ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Primary Data ◽  
Dependency Ratio ◽  
Government Employees ◽  
Savings Behavior ◽  
Daily Rate ◽  
Savings Rate ◽  
The Government

As per rules, the Savings practice of Government salaried people is mandatory up to a stipulated amount of monthly salary. According to GPF, EPF and NPS Rules, a predetermined amount is deducted by the employer at source for the future wellbeing of the concerned employee and invest to GPF, EPF, NPS, etc. In addition to these mandatory savings, employees can save their money to other savings instruments according to their capability and other conditions. As most of the government employees in Unakoti district of Tripura are working with small designations and salaries, they are not able to save more in addition to mandatory savings. Fixed Pay Employee (FPE), Contract Base Worker (CBW), Per Time Worker (PTW), Monthly Pay Worker (MPW), Daily Rate Worker (DRW) are the working conditions where employees get less amount of salary in comparison to regular employees. Under these conditions, their savings rate is also low in comparison to other employees. Other Sources of income, spouse job, dependency ratio, age, literacy level, educational qualification and availability of savings instruments nearby employees are an important aspect for better understanding of savings improvement in the District. The present study entitled “Savings behavior of Government Salaried People in Unakoti District of Tripura” is an empirical study based on primary data and secondary data. The study reveals that the savings rate of salaried people in Unakoti District of Tripura is growing slowly. Financial literacy, reduction of dependency ratio by employment generation programs, Massive awareness program and availability of savings instruments in the rural areas may make a vigorous savings environment in Unakoti District of Tripura.

Opposition split may mean more violence for Kosovo

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
The Other ◽  
Self Determination ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Future ◽  
United Front ◽  
The Government ◽  
The One ◽  
The Eu

Subject Kosovo's violent and fragmenting opposition. Significance Three parties which had formed a united front against the government have split into two camps. Vetevendosje (Self-Determination) is on the one side; the Alliance for the Future of Kosovo (AAK) and the Initiative for Kosovo (Nisma), which have formed a formal coalition, are on the other. The split strengthens the government's position. Impacts Further unrest will have damaging consequences for the economy, implementing the Brussels Agreement and Kosovo's passage towards the EU. The governing parties will gain from opposition disunity in any electoral contest, increasing the prospect of early elections. Kosovo's Serbs may implement the devolution aspects of the Brussels Agreement unilaterally, further exacerbating tensions.

Demographic Changes Affecting Our Pensions

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Karicia Quiroz
Keyword(s):  
Baby Boom ◽  
Pension Plan ◽  
Public Pension ◽  
The Other ◽  
Demographic Changes ◽  
Investment Fund ◽  
Negative Effects ◽  
Private Savings ◽  
The Government ◽  
Pension Payments

Our Canadian retirement system contains three pillars, focusing on providing all members of Canadian society with a minimum and guaranteed standard of living for retirement, throughdirect transfers to help the working poor (first pillar) to Canada Pension Plan payments through mandatory monthly deductions (second pillar) funding current retirees and through taxdeductions offered via Canadians’ private savings (third pillar). Yet, with the baby boom generation presently retiring, and the current workforce positively shrinking, how will our monthly paycheck deductions towards Canada Public Pension payments be affected? Did you know that when you are born in 1985, you receive approximately $0.70 in retirement back from the government for every $1 contribution made from your current paycheck, and $0.60 back for every $1 contribution if born in 1995? These demographic changes are negatively affecting the future returns of our Canada Public Pension payments, despite a +$150 billion Canada Pension Plan Investment fund and the other two pillars of the Canadianretirement system. Either one improves the second pillar as it is, affecting the other two pillars, or one completely replaces that system with alternative options. This presentation will focus on the alternative options available and what can be done to mitigate the negative effects of the present demographic changes affecting the status of our Canada Public Pensions.

Research on public emotional polarization and public opinion evolution of OTC and learning during the COVID-19 epidemic: taking the topic of OTC on Zhihu as an example

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Xin Feng ◽  
Xu Wang ◽  
Yue Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Public Opinion ◽  
Topic Model ◽  
Development Trend ◽  
Intrinsic Structure ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Learning And Teaching ◽  
The Public ◽  
The Government ◽  
Emotional Value

PurposeThe outbreak and continuation of COVID-19 have spawned the transformation of traditional teaching models to a certain extent. The Chinese Ministry of Education’s guidance on “keep learning and teaching during class suspension” has made OTC and learning (OTC) become routinized, and the public’s emotional attitudes toward OTC have also evolved over time. The purpose of this study is to segment the emotional text data and introduce it into the topic model to reveal the evolution process and stage characteristics of public emotional polarity and public opinion of OTC topics during public health emergencies in the context of social media participation. The research has important guiding significance for the development of OTC and can influence and improve the efficiency and effect of OTC to a certain extent. The analysis of online public opinion can provide suggestions for the government and media to guide the trend of public opinion and optimize the OTC model.Design/methodology/approachThis paper takes the topic of “OTC” on Zhihu during the COVID-19 epidemic as an example, combined with the characteristics of public opinion changes, chooses Boson emotional dictionary and time series analysis method to build an OTC network public opinion theme evolution analysis framework that integrates emotional analysis and topic mining. Finally, an empirical analysis of the dynamic evolution of the communication network for each stage of the life cycle of a specific topic is realized.FindingsThis paper draws the following conclusions: (1) Through the emotional value table and the change trend chart of the number of comments, the analysis found that the number of positive comments is greater than the number of negative comments, which can be inferred that the public gradually accepts “OTC” and presents a positive emotional state. (2) By observing the changing trend of the average daily emotional value of the public, it is found that the overall emotional value shows a stable development trend after a large fluctuation. From the actual emotional value and the fitted emotional value curve, it can be seen that the overall curve fit is good, so ARIMA (12, 1, 6) can accurately predict the dynamic trend of the daily average emotional value in this paper. Therefore, based on the above-mentioned public opinion, emotional analysis research, relevant countermeasures and suggestions are put forward, which is conducive to guiding the development direction of public opinion in a positive way.Originality/valueTaking the topic of “OTC” in Zhihu as an example, this paper combines Boson emotional dictionary and time series to conduct a series of research analyses. Boson emotional dictionary can analyze the public’s emotional tendency, and time series can well analyze the intrinsic structure and complex features of the data to predict the future values. The combination of the two research methods allows for an adequate and unique study of public emotional polarization and the evolution of public opinion.

scholarly journals Antecedents of turnover in federal public administration

2018 ◽  
Vol 53 (3) ◽  
pp. 366-384
Author(s):  
Pedro Cavalcanti G. Ferreira ◽  
Elaine Rabelo Neiva
Keyword(s):  
Turnover Intention ◽  
Affective Commitment ◽  
Executive Branch ◽  
Structural Equations ◽  
Civil Servants ◽  
The Other ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Public ◽  
Low Expectations ◽  
The Government

Purpose Understanding the reasons that lead civil servants to abandon their offices is an important step towards qualifying personnel management in the Federal Administration. The purpose of this study is to present an initial approach to the subject and to investigate variables that favor or reduce the turnover intention among civil servants in the Federal Executive Branch. Design/methodology/approach To fulfill the objective stated, the study resorted to variables of values, expectations and affective commitment to the organization. Variables were tested in a model of structural equations capable of verifying if these are antecedent or not of the turnover intention levels in a sample comprising 228 civil servants. Findings The validation of a model of structural equations unveiled a statistically relevant relation of dependence among values, expectations and the affective commitment to the organization. Moreover, engagement proved to be a mediator of the relation between the other variables and the turnover intention. Originality/value The work contributed to literature by presenting evidence that low expectations among civil servants bring low affective commitment which, in turn, leads to higher willingness to quit organizations. On the other hand, the same model showed that self-transcendent values, typical to the public career (serve the public), prevail among civil servants and positively impact commitment. This scenario shows that in people management all these elements of values and expectations must be worked on to reduce the number of civil servants that quit the government every year, as well as the high costs associated with quitting.

Clustering the countries for quantifying the status of Covid-19 through time series analysis

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Madurapperumage Erandathi ◽  
William Yu Chung Wang ◽  
Chih-Chia Hsieh
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Time Series Analysis ◽  
Financial Stability ◽  
Health Facilities ◽  
Safety Measures ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Series Analysis ◽  
The World ◽  
The Status ◽  
The Government

Purpose This study aims to use financial stability and health facilities of countries, to cluster them for making a more consensus environment for manifesting the status of Covid-19 in a justifiable manner. The scarcity of the categorisation of the countries of the world in a common platform, and the requirement of manifesting the pandemic status such as Covid-19 in a justifiable manner create the demanding requirement. This study mainly focusses on assisting to generate a liable manifesto to criticise the span of viral infection of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 over the globe. Design/methodology/approach Data for this study has been gathered from official websites of the World Bank, and the world in data. The Louvain clustering method has been used to cluster the countries based on their financial strength and health facilities. The resulted clusters are visualised using Silhouette plots. The anomalies of the clusters had been used to quantify the pandemic situation. The status of Covid-19 has been manifested with the time series analysis through python programming. Findings The countries of the world have been clustered into seven, where developed countries divided into three clusters and the countries with transition economies and developing clustered together into four clusters. The time series analysis of recognised anomalies of the clusters assist to monitor the government responses and analyse the efficiency of used safety measures against the pandemic. Originality/value This study’s resulted clusters are highly valuable as a division of countries of the whole world for evaluating the health systems and for the regional levels. Further, the results of time series analysis are beneficial in monitoring the government responses and analysing the efficiency of used safety measures against the pandemic.

Police and crime commissioners: the first twelve months

2014 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 40-50 ◽  
Author(s):  
Timothy Brain
Keyword(s):  
Design Methodology ◽  
The Other ◽  
Added Value ◽  
England And Wales ◽  
Content Type ◽  
New Type ◽  
Positive Impression ◽  
The Government ◽  
Principal Method ◽  
Practical Implications

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to review the establishment of this new type of elected official and the conduct of those in office during the first twelve months of their official existence, and to consider whether a compelling case has yet been made for its retention as the principal method of police governance. Design/methodology/approach – The paper will review policy papers and data which preceded and followed the establishment of the office of police and crime commissioner (PCC) in November 2012; review the 2012 elections and their implications, review conduct since, particularly in respect of formal duties, principally setting budgets and police and crime plans; consider the potential for politicisation; and consider whether a case has been made for the retention of the office in future. Findings – The paper concludes that the government has succeeded with PCCs in implementing a major plank of the Conservative party's 2010 manifesto. It can reasonably be anticipated that the Conservatives will promote this record at the next election. However, it is simply too early to tell if PCCs are individually or collectively adding value to the sum of policing in England and Wales. A compelling case for their retention as a means of police governance is therefore yet to be made. On the other hand, Labour has still to determine whether it will offer the electorate an alternative in 2015. Research limitations/implications – With only ten months having elapsed since the first elections, it is early to draw firm conclusions about the effectiveness or, more pertinently, the added value that PCCs have brought to policing. Conversely, the first twelve months was an opportunity for PCCs to make a positive impression and this has not occurred. Practical implications – PCCs ought to be subject to a rigorous appraisal of effectiveness. This is unlikely, for political reasons, to occur. Originality/value – First rigorous review of PCCs based on a review of available data.

Race to succeed Correa gets underway in Ecuador

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Presidential Elections ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
The Other ◽  
Middle Income ◽  
Content Type ◽  
International Investors ◽  
The Government ◽  
The One ◽  
The Right ◽  
Ruling Party

Subject Possible successors to President Rafael Correa. Significance The surprising news that President Rafael Correa will not stand in the 2017 presidential elections has triggered a debate over who the ruling party, Alianza Pais, will select as its candidate. The task confronting the party is to choose a candidate who has the potential to secure low and middle-income votes on the one hand and appeal to national and international investors on the other. Striking this balance will be particularly important as the collapse of world oil prices and slowdown of economic growth has damaged the government and fuelled social and political tensions. Impacts Whoever Alianza Pais selects is likely to be the strong favourite, despite the government's difficulties in recent months. The key election battle is likely to be over control of the legislature rather than the presidency. The primary challenge for the opposition to the right will be to find a candidate capable of uniting various leaders and factions.

Individual law: an Islamic Sufi approach

2018 ◽  
Vol 60 (6) ◽  
pp. 1338-1353
Author(s):  
Bijan Bidabad
Keyword(s):  
Rule Of Law ◽  
Comparative Research ◽  
Islamic Law ◽  
The Other ◽  
Human Beings ◽  
Law Schools ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government ◽  
Practical Implications

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to show how individual law is defined in Islam. Individual law includes a set of human rights that the government is bound to vindicate by duty. Islamic law approach is how human beings transcendence, and freedom may be formed wisely. Design/methodology/approach Spiritual flourishing is the goal of Islamic Sufism. The main topics of individual freedom are discussed here are freedom of opinion, will, religion, speech, meeting, minorities, rule of law, equality before law, rights resulted from implementing justice, ownership and self-determination of destiny and jobs, which are explained through the Islamic Sufism viewpoint. Findings By comparing individual law in Islamic law with the other law schools, transcendence of the former is more clarified. Research limitations/implications Comparative research of the other religions’ gnosticism will develop the paradigm. Practical implications The principles highlighted in this study can be used for applied debates in the field to promote individual law for understanding and recompilation. Social implications Delicateness, truthfulness and righteousness of Islamic Sufism may turn the attentions of scholars and researchers to this rich viewpoint. Originality/value Individual law scholars have not touched the topic from this viewpoint. This paper opens new challenging area.

Dynamic interaction between higher education and economic progress: a comparative analysis of BRICS countries

2018 ◽  
Vol 46 (4) ◽  
pp. 225-238 ◽  
Author(s):  
Victor Chang ◽  
Yian Chen ◽  
Chang Xiong
Keyword(s):  
Higher Education ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Economic Development ◽  
Comparative Analysis ◽  
Dynamic Interaction ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Brics Countries ◽  
Economic Progress ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to gain a deeper insight on how education boosts economic progress in key emerging economies. This project is aimed at exploring the interactive dynamics between the tertiary education sector and economic development in BRICS countries. The author also aims to examine how the structure of higher education contributes to economic expansion.Design/methodology/approachThe author uses the time series data of BRICS countries across approximately two decades to determine the statistical causality between the size of tertiary enrollment and economic development. The linear regression model is then used to figure out the different impact levels of academic and vocational training programs at the tertiary level to economic development.FindingsData from all BRICS countries exhibited a unidirectional statistical causality relationship, except the Brazilian data. The national economic expansion Granger Caused increased tertiary enrollment in Russia and India, while in China and South Africa, higher education enrollment Granger Caused economic progress. The impact from tertiary academic training is found to be positive for all BRICS nations, while tertiary vocation training is shown to have impaired the Russian and South African economy.Research limitations/implicationsThis project is based on a rather small sample size, and the stationary feature of the time series could be different should a larger pool of data spanning a longer period of time is used. In addition, the author also neglects other control variables in the regression model. Therefore, the impact level could be distorted due to possible omitted variable bias.Practical implicationsTertiary academic study is found to have a larger impact level to all countries’ economic advancement, except for China, during the time frame studied. There is a statistical correlation between the education and economic progress. This is particularly true for BRICS countries, especially China. But the exception is Brazil.Social implicationsThe government should provide education up to the certain level, as there is a direct correlation to the job creation and economic progress. Furthermore, the government should also work closely with industry to ensure growth of industry and creation of new jobs.Originality/valueThe comparative analysis and evaluation of the dynamic interaction of tertiary enrollment and economic output across all five BRICS nations is unique, and it deepens the understanding of the socioeconomic development in these countries from a holistic management perspective.

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