Operational research applied in the field of public security

2020 ◽  
Vol 15 (3) ◽  
pp. 1227-1276
Author(s):  
Marcio Pereira Basilio ◽  
Valdecy Pereira
Keyword(s):  
Operational Research ◽  
Hot Spot ◽  
Crime Rates ◽  
Local Economy ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Public Security ◽  
Large Set ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Large Cities ◽  
The Impact

Purpose Because that the crime in a wide way impacts the life of the people in the big metropolis, researchers have treated the question from several angles. The purpose of the paper, under the umbrella of operational research, is to develop a model of the ordering of police strategies, in the fight against crime in general, according to a certain criminal demand. Design/methodology/approach For the construction of the impact matrix of the strategies under the reduction of crime rates, considering a portfolio of crimes, a questionnaire applied to specialists was used. In a second moment, defined the criteria and strategies to be ordered, the multicriteria ELECTRE IV method was used, which with the help of the J-Electre software emulated the systematized data in the impact matrix and produced the final ordering of the most efficient strategies, in the fight against crime, in the perception of decision-makers. Findings As a result, the research revealed that policing strategies directed at solving specific crimes are the most effective in the perception of decision-makers after the emulation of data with the ELECTRE IV method. Research limitations/implications As research implications, it can be inferred that the use of multicriteria methods in the modeling of problems in the area of public security can contribute to rationalization of the use of the means available in the fight against crime in large cities. The research showed that it is possible to use customized policing strategies to a certain reality. Practical implications The method presented in this research is directly related to the major strategies: problem-oriented policing and hot spot policing. This method allows public safety managers to consider the possibility of combining different law enforcement strategies in each context. In this sense, the use of the multiple-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) (ELECTRE IV) method allows the evaluation of a large set of alternatives according to a set of established criteria, speeding up the process and reducing subjectivity, allowing the manager to analyze several scenarios with greater clarity and impartiality and choosing an alternative that best solves the proposed problem. The expected result is the rationalization of the available means applied in the search for the reduction of crime rates. Social implications The customization of policing strategies, according to criminal demands, implies the efficient way to reduce criminal charges. Reducing criminal rates enables the development of the local economy, tourism and the quality of life of people by exercising their freedom to the full. Originality/value The originality lies in filling a gap in the literature with the elaboration of the impact matrix of policing strategies in reducing criminal indices, and in their associated use in ordering strategies through a multicriteria method.

Ranking policing strategies as a function of criminal complaints: application of the PROMETHEE II method in the Brazilian context

2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Marcio Pereira Basilio ◽  
Valdecy Pereira ◽  
Max William Coelho de Oliveira ◽  
Antonio Fernandes da Costa Neto
Keyword(s):  
Decision Makers ◽  
Law Enforcement Agencies ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Promethee Ii ◽  
Large Cities ◽  
Effective Strategies ◽  
Multicriteria Method ◽  
Policing Strategy ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact

Purpose The purpose of this study is modelling of a problem of policing strategy order using a multicriteria method. Design/methodology/approach For the construction of the impact matrix strategies under the reduction of crime rates, considering a portfolio of crimes, a questionnaire applied to specialists was used. In a second moment, defined the criteria and strategies to be ordered, the multicriteria PROMETHEE II method was used, which with the help of the Visual PROMETHEE software, emulated the systematised data in the impact matrix and produced the final ordering of the most efficient strategies, in the fight against crime, in the perception of decision makers. Findings As a result, this research revealed that radio patrol, when used in a non-randomised manner, is the most effective policing strategy in reducing the 18 criminal demands studied in the perception of decision makers after data emulation with the PROMETHEE II method. Research limitations/implications As research implications, it can be inferred that the use of multicriteria methods in the modelling of problems in public security area can contribute to the rationalisation of use of the available means in the fight against crime in large cities. This research showed that it is possible to use customised policing strategies to absolute reality. Practical implications The practical impact of this research lies in optimising the resources available to law enforcement agencies in the fight against crime in general. Social implications It can be inferred that by choosing appropriate strategies to combat local crime, there is a direct implication in optimising the resources that the government makes available to police agencies. This optimisation allows pressure reduction under the public budget for more features. The model for choosing more effective strategies contributes to local crimes decrease, increasing the sense of the population security. Originality/value The originality lies in filling a gap in the literature with the elaboration of the impact matrix of policing strategies in reducing criminal indices and in their associated use in ordering strategies through a multicriteria method. This study contributed to applied police intelligence.

Fuzzy multi-attribute group decision making to identify the order of establishing temporary logistics hubs during disaster response

2019 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 2-21 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rajali Maharjan ◽  
Shinya Hanaoka
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Group Decision Making ◽  
Disaster Response ◽  
Group Decision ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Numerical Illustration ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Using Data ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Post Disaster

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to reveal the importance of the order of establishment of temporary logistics hubs (TLHs) when resources (mobile storage units used as TLHs) are limited and to present the development and implementation of a methodology that determines the order of establishment of TLHs to support post-disaster decision making. Design/methodology/approach It employed a decision support system that considers multiple decision makers and subjective attributes, while also addressing the impreciseness inherent in post-disaster decision making for ordering the establishment of TLHs. To do so, an optimization model was combined with a fuzzy multi-attribute group decision making approach. A numerical illustration was performed using data from the April 2015 Nepal Earthquake. Findings The results showed the location and order of establishment of TLHs, and demonstrated the impact of decision makers’ opinions on the overall ordering. Research limitations/implications The study does not discuss the uncertain nature of the location problem and the potential need for relocation of TLHs. Practical implications This methodology offers managerial insights for post-disaster decision making when resources are limited and their effective utilization is vital. The results highlight the importance of considering the opinions of multiple actors/decision makers to enable coordination and avoid complication between the growing numbers of humanitarian responders during disaster response. Originality/value This study introduces the concept of the order of establishment of TLHs and demonstrates its importance when resources are limited. It develops and implements a methodology determining the order of establishment of TLHs to support post-disaster decision making.

scholarly journals Cap rates and risk: a spatial analysis of commercial real estate

2018 ◽  
Vol 35 (1) ◽  
pp. 25-43
Author(s):  
Florian Unbehaun ◽  
Franz Fuerst
Keyword(s):  
Real Estate ◽  
Risk Perceptions ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Risk Premia ◽  
Real Estate Market ◽  
Commercial Real Estate ◽  
Data Series ◽  
Large Set ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Impact

Purpose This study aims to assess the impact of location on capitalization rates and risk premia. Design/methodology/approach Using a transaction-based data series for the five largest office markets in Germany from 2005 to 2015, regression analysis is performed to account for a large set of asset-level drivers such as location, age and size and time-varying macro-level drivers. Findings Location is found to be a key determinant of cap rates and risk premia. CBD locations are found to attract lower cap rates and lower risk premia in three of the five largest markets in Germany. Interestingly, this effect is not found in the non-CBD locations of these markets, suggesting that the lower perceived risk associated with these large markets is restricted to a relatively small area within these markets that are reputed to be safe investments. Research limitations/implications The findings imply that investors view properties in peripheral urban locations as imperfect substitutes for CBD properties. Further analysis also shows that these risk premia are not uniformly applied across real estate asset types. The CBD risk effect is particularly pronounced for office and retail assets, apparently considered “prime” investments within the central locations. Originality/value This is one of the first empirical studies of the risk implications of peripheral commercial real estate locations. It is also one of the first large-scale cap rate analyses of the German commercial real estate market. The results demonstrate that risk perceptions of investors have a distinct spatial dimension.

Police crackdowns in Mexico City

2019 ◽  
Vol 42 (5) ◽  
pp. 798-813
Author(s):  
Ricardo Massa ◽  
Gustavo Fondevila
Keyword(s):  
Mexico City ◽  
Precise Determination ◽  
Crime Rates ◽  
Garch Models ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Sustained Reduction ◽  
Police Crackdown ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Static Nature

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to analyze the design and implementation of the police crackdown strategy employed in Mexico City and to discuss its limitations toward a medium-to-long-term reduction of crime rates for six types of robberies. Design/methodology/approach The present work employs generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH) models to estimate the effect of police operations on the volatility of the rates of six types of robberies in Mexico City, as well as their persistence over time. Findings Results suggest that the concentration of policing in certain high-criminality spaces reduces crime rates in the immediate term; however, its permanence is contingent on policing design and behavioral characteristics of the targeted crime. Specifically, the Mexico City police crackdown strategy seems to be better suited for combating crimes of a “non-static” nature than those of a “static” nature. Research limitations/implications Due to the nature of the data used for this research, the performed analysis does not enable a precise determination of whether the crime rates respond to temporal or spatial displacement. Practical implications Considering the obtained results, a re-design of Mexico City’s police crackdown strategy is suggested for the sustained reduction of the number of reported cases of robberies of a static nature. Originality/value Despite their importance, few studies have measured the impact of police crackdowns on city-level crime rates and whether their effect is temporary or permanent. The present study proposes the use of GARCH models in order to integrate the study of this phenomenon into criminal time series models.

Stressed decision makers and use of decision aids: a literature review and conceptual model

2019 ◽  
Vol 33 (2) ◽  
pp. 710-754 ◽  
Author(s):  
Monica Adya ◽  
Gloria Phillips-Wren
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Conceptual Model ◽  
Perceived Stress ◽  
Decision Aids ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Decision Quality ◽  
Negative Effects ◽  
Managerial Decision ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Impact

Purpose Decision making is inherently stressful since the decision maker must choose between potentially conflicting alternatives with unique hazards and uncertain outcomes. Whereas decision aids such as decision support systems (DSS) can be beneficial in stressful scenarios, decision makers sometimes misuse them during decision making, leading to suboptimal outcomes. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the relationship between stress, decision making and decision aid use. Design/methodology/approach The authors conduct an extensive multi-disciplinary review of decision making and DSS use through the lens of stress and examine how stress, as perceived by decision makers, impacts their use or misuse of DSS even when such aids can improve decision quality. Research questions examine underlying sources of stress in managerial decision making that influence decision quality, relationships between a decision maker’s perception of stress, DSS use/misuse, and decision quality, and implications for research and practice on DSS design and capabilities. Findings The study presents a conceptual model that provides an integrative behavioral view of the impact of a decision maker’s perceived stress on their use of a DSS and the quality of their decisions. The authors identify critical knowledge gaps and propose a research agenda to improve decision quality and use of DSS by considering a decision maker’s perceived stress. Originality/value This study provides a previously unexplored view of DSS use and misuse as shaped by the decision and job stress experienced by decision makers. Through the application of four theories, the review and its findings highlight key design principles that can mitigate the negative effects of stressors on DSS use.

Nature-based therapy as a treatment for veterans with PTSD: what do we know?

2017 ◽  
Vol 16 (1) ◽  
pp. 15-20 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dorthe Varning Poulsen
Keyword(s):  
Traumatic Stress ◽  
Quantitative Methods ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Target Group ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Treatment Programs ◽  
Post Traumatic Stress ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Post Traumatic ◽  
The Impact

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to provide a comprehensive argument for nature-based therapy (NBT) for veterans with post-traumatic stress syndrome. It is the aim to generate an overview of the evidence for NBT to the target group. A review of available scientific literature within the field, has been comprehensively conducted. This work is the foundation for the recommendations to decision makers and politicians. Design/methodology/approach This paper provides a conceptual analyses and a general review of the literature. Following steps have been conducted. Based on the research question, relevant work (scientific papers) have been identified using search terms in English within the three areas the target group (veterans), the diagnosis (post-traumatic stress disorder, PTSD) and treatment (NBT). Study-quality and evidence level have been assessed and discussed. Findings The findings show a wide variation according to the interventions the nature setting, the length and frequency of the NBT session as well as the health outcome measures. The studies demonstrated a positive impact on the PTSD symptoms, quality of life and hope. None of the studies found negative impact of the interventions. Being in a group of other veterans facing the same problems was highlighted as well. Some studies measured the ability to return to workforce for the veterans and found NBT beneficial in that process. Research limitations/implications The limitation of the research due to the methods of identifying studies. The purpose of this was to give an overview of existing literature, and there can be studies, that are not found in this process. Including qualitative and quantitative methods are useful in a process of understanding the impact of NBT for veterans with PTSD. The quantitative studies, which unfortunately are few, can give information of the extent to which the treatment affects the symptoms of PTSD. Seen in the perspective of the burden for the veterans suffering from PTSD and the economic burden for society, the process of synthesizing the research in the field in order to generate a fundament seems necessary. Practical implications This policy papers are useful in order to make recommendations for politicians and decision makers as well as practitioners. Social implications The burden of suffering from PTSD is heavy for the veterans and their family. The society must drive forward the development of new and better evidence-based treatment programs for veterans with PTSD. NBT might be a step in the right direction of this. Originality/value It is well-known that there are an increase in the number of veterans diagnosed with PTSD. Generally the drop-out rate of the veterans is high in conventional treatment and it is found that veterans experience some side effects from medical treatment. NBT is, in existing research, found to have a positive impact on the veterans, and therefore, it should be part of future treatment programs for veterans with PTSD.

Examining confirmation biases: implications of sponsor congruency

2018 ◽  
Vol 19 (1) ◽  
pp. 58-73 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael Devlin ◽  
Andrew C. Billings
Keyword(s):  
Purchase Intention ◽  
Purchase Intentions ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Expected Return ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Fan Identification ◽  
Positive Attitudes ◽  
Cognitive Benefits ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Practical Implications

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to investigate occurrences of confirmation bias existing for sponsors whose brand is congruent to a sport. More specifically, this research investigates: if confirmation biases for congruent brands occur in the absence of exposure, the impact audience segmentation has on sponsorship evaluations by comparing highly identified fans to non-fans, and if congruent sponsors are recalled more often than incongruent sponsors after exposure. Design/methodology/approach An experiment was conducted to measure how exposure, type of sponsor, and fan identification impacts recognition, attitude, and purchase intention. Findings The results confirm sport-congruent brands are more likely to be falsely recognized as a sponsor than non-congruent sponsors in the absence of sponsorship participation. Sport consumers’ confirmation biases yield positive attitudes and purchase intentions for congruent brands even in the absence of immediate exposure. Lastly, exposure has no impact on recall or sponsor outcomes, suggesting the need for articulating the brand’s connection prior to the event to build stronger memory traces. Practical implications Congruent brands should carefully consider investment costs and expected return on investment, noting benefits of participation might be marginal as a result of confirmation biases. Potential sponsors should also understand cognitive benefits begin before exposure to the sponsorship occurs, and therefore need to articulate a connection to the event prior to exposure by consumers. Originality/value The findings suggest the importance of confirmation biases when attempting to reach sport consumers. Some brands may be able to increase recall and recognition even in the absence of exposure, thus helping decision makers when managing budgets.

Factors driving indebtedness among small- and medium-sized dairy companies

2020 ◽  
Vol 123 (1) ◽  
pp. 159-175
Author(s):  
Alberto Mazzoleni ◽  
Enrica Pollonini
Keyword(s):  
Economic Crisis ◽  
Food Production ◽  
Design Methodology ◽  
Financial Structure ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Third Party ◽  
Production Chain ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Practical Implications

PurposeWe developed a model to demonstrate how multiple interrelated aspects of a firm influence its recourse to third-party financing, which frequently depends on the characteristics of each food production chain.Design/methodology/approachWe conducted an empirical research on a relevant sample of small- and medium-sized Italian dairy firms. Our research methodology is inspired by the grounded theory (Glaser and Strauss, 1967).FindingsOur findings illustrated that firm indebtedness is the result of intertwined variables, linked to different firm dimensions, including growth, financial structure and economic dynamics.Research limitations/implicationsA portion of the analysed phenomenon is not explained using the sample and econometric tools.Practical implicationsThere are practical implications for the decision-makers in a firm (in particular, the managers and the shareholders) as the model allows to evaluate the influence of a set of mutually interdependent firm variables for the indebtedness level.Originality/valueFirst, we considered the recourse to third-party financing within the context of the systems theory (Millová and Blatný, 2015) and from the perspective of linked causes and mutually connected variables. Second, our research focussed on a well-defined food chain and on features of firms operating in this context. Last, our model considered the impact of the recent economic crisis, which motivated us to review the existing models.

Does higher educational attainment imply less crime? Evidence from the Indian states

2020 ◽  
Vol 48 (1) ◽  
pp. 133-165
Author(s):  
Bijoy Rakshit ◽  
Yadawananda Neog
Keyword(s):  
Educational Attainment ◽  
Tertiary Education ◽  
Dynamic Panel Data ◽  
Crime Rates ◽  
Economic Crime ◽  
Dynamic Panel ◽  
Indian States ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Impact

PurposeThe primary purpose of this paper is to empirically investigate the impact of educational attainment on crime rates across 33 Indian states over the period 2001 to 2013. This paper also examines the role of various macroeconomic, socio-economic and demographic factors in determining the variation of crimes in India.Design/methodology/approachFirst, this paper provides a representative theoretical model and discusses the possible relationship between crime and education. Second, the paper applies a dynamic panel data (DPD) model to extract more precise, unbiased and reliable estimates of the effect of education in abating different crime rates. The main advantage of using the dynamic panel model is to address the problem of endogeneity in some regressors and capture the time persistent effect of education on crime.FindingsEmpirical findings reveal that a 1% increase in gross enrolment ratio leads to the reduction of total crime by 8%. However, a unique finding identifies a positive association between tertiary education and economic crime. This finding further goes against the general belief that criminals tend to be less educated than non-criminals.Practical implicationsThis paper recommends that instead of punishment and mandatory law enforcement for offenders, increase in government expenditure and different educational attainment ratios can go a long way to combat crime in India, which has posed a serious threat to the stability of society. Furthermore, utilizing the information on offenders' educational attainment in examining the crime rates can be a future research agenda for policymakers.Originality/valueThis study contributes to the empirical debate of ‘crime-education nexus’ by examining the role of education on crime in India. This study is the first of its kind that focuses on the aspects of crime and education more recently and investigates the relationship between crime and education due to the recent changes in educational attainment ratios and crime rate.

The impact of Jordanian anti-money laundering laws on banks

2016 ◽  
Vol 19 (1) ◽  
pp. 70-78 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ahmad Mohammad Abdalla Abu Olaim ◽  
Aspalella A. Rahman
Keyword(s):  
Money Laundering ◽  
Arab Spring ◽  
Banking Industry ◽  
Primary Source ◽  
Crime Rates ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Terrorist Financing ◽  
The Law ◽  
The Arab Spring ◽  
The Impact

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to examine the impact of the Jordanian anti-money laundering law and its instructions on the Jordanian banking industry. The anti-money laundering law in Jordan is newly enacted, but there are new developments not covered by the law. For instance, the revolutionary wave known as the Arab Spring surrounding Jordan has increased the crime rates in Jordan, and it has also reduced international coordination and cooperation to encounter money laundering operations. The emergence of new means for money transfer is affecting the efficiency and speed of bank transfers. Subsequently, the impact of the law on Jordanian banks is unknown. Design/methodology/approach – This paper relies on the Jordanian Anti-Money Laundering and Counter Terrorist Financing Law 2007 as a primary source of information. The relevant Jordanian anti-money laundering instructions that have directly been affecting banks include the Jordanian Anti Money Laundering and Counter Terrorist Financing Instructions Number (51) 2010. These instructions were considered the most important legislation for the purpose of this paper. Findings – While the Jordanian anti-money laundering law is based on certain principles, the effectiveness of the law is unknown. The Arab Spring, particularly the Syrian revolution, has negatively increased the crime rates and money laundering activities in Jordan. To make matters worse, the international cooperation and coordination between countries in combating money laundering are not at the required level, and this has encouraged money laundering groups to exploit the situation. Only time will tell whether the banks will be able to cope sufficiently with the increased anti-money laundering obligations. Obviously, it is critical at this stage to establish effective coordination between legislators, regulators and the banking industry to minimize problems encountered by the banks, thereby to ensure effective implementation of the law. Originality/value – This paper provides an examination of the impact of the Jordanian anti-money laundering law that has directly affected banks. It is hoped that this paper would provide some insight into this particular area for academics, practitioners, the legal advisers, banks and policy-makers not only in Jordan but also elsewhere. In view of the international nature of money laundering and banking, there will be significant interest in how the anti-money laundering law affects banks operation in Jordan.

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