The information content of an increase in federal funds rate from a zero lower bound environment

2018 ◽  
Vol 44 (2) ◽  
pp. 257-277
Author(s):  
Violeta Diaz ◽  
Harikumar Sankaran ◽  
Subramanian Rama Iyer
Keyword(s):  
Rate Increase ◽  
Var Model ◽  
Time Rate ◽  
Federal Funds ◽  
Federal Funds Rate ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Study Methodology ◽  
The Impact ◽  
First Time ◽  
Event Study Methodology

Purpose After a seven-year period of being stuck in the zero lower bound (ZLB) range, the target rate was raised by 25 basis points on December 16, 2015. Prior to the rate hike, the important issues that the Federal Reserve dealt with were the magnitude, timing, and the information conveyed by a first-time rate hike from the ZLB period. The purpose of this paper is to use the data from the ZLB period and simulate the impact of an increase in the proxies for the federal funds rate: effective federal funds rate and shadow rate, and measure the impact on the resulting changes in credit default swap (CDS) spreads across 11 industries. Increases in both proxies predict a significant decrease in CDS spreads which is indicative of an economic recovery. This prediction is confirmed by the announcement effect of the actual rate increase on December 16, 2015 and the three subsequent rate increases. Design/methodology/approach In the absence of target rate changes in the ZLB environment, the authors use a recursive vector autoregressive (VAR) model to simulate the rate increases in proxies for target federal rate and predict the impact on the economy by observing the reaction in CDS spreads and stock returns across 11 industries. Findings The impulse response indicates that an increase of one standard deviation in the effective rate (approximately 25 basis points) results in a statistically significant decrease in the spreads of CDS contracts in 8 of the 11 sectors studied in this research. Similar results obtain for an increase in shadow rate thus providing a robustness check. These results suggest a rate increase from the ZLB period and the resulting dynamics captured in the VAR system is indicative of an economic recovery. Originality/value Prior studies have used the event study methodology to evaluate the impact of rate changes on credit spreads. The ZLB environment does not contain data on target rate changes and renders the event study methodology as ineffective. This paper is the first to simulate the implications of a first-time rate increase from the ZLB environment in the context of a recursive VAR model. The results are very helpful to the Federal Reserve of countries experiencing a ZLB environment such as Japan and Europe.

Doping scandals in professional cycling: impact on primary team sponsor’s stock return

2016 ◽  
Vol 17 (1) ◽  
pp. 37-55 ◽  
Author(s):  
Karen Danylchuk ◽  
Jelmer Stegink ◽  
Katie Lebel
Keyword(s):  
Stock Returns ◽  
Stock Return ◽  
Grand Tour ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Time Period ◽  
Study Methodology ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Professional Cycling ◽  
Event Study Methodology

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to examine the impact of doping scandals (n=25) in professional cycling Grand Tour events on the primary team sponsor’s daily stock return. Design/methodology/approach – Event study methodology. Findings – Overall it was found that during the time period and events under examination in this study doping scandals had no significant impact on the primary team sponsor’s stock returns. Originality/value – There is limited research to explain the economic impact of widespread doping in cycling and its commercial shareholders. This study addresses this gap by examining the relationship between doping scandals in professional cycling and the daily stock return of the involved team’s primary sponsor.

Pyro terrorism in Greece? Greek forest fires August 2007 and the impact on Greek banks stocks

2018 ◽  
Vol 21 (2) ◽  
pp. 163-170 ◽  
Author(s):  
Spyridon Repousis
Keyword(s):  
Event Study ◽  
Forest Fires ◽  
Banking System ◽  
Market Model ◽  
Terrorist Attacks ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Study Methodology ◽  
Greek Banks ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Event Study Methodology

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to examine Greek forest fires in August 2007 and statements about terrorism (pyro-terrorism) and the impact on Greek banks stocks. Design/methodology/approach Event study methodology and market model is used in this paper and data of all Greek bank stocks prices listed in Athens Stock Exchange are analysed, before and after 17 August 2007, which is when forest fires took place in Greece. Findings Total number of burned acres during a seven-year period, 2000-2006, was 2,530,883, and during only August 2007, burned acres accounted to 2,059,615. The former Minister for Public Order, Vyron Polydoras, stated the fires may be a result of terrorist attacks, as many of the fires started simultaneously and in places where an arsonist could not be seen. The Minister also stated that the country is facing an asymmetric threat, a military term used for terrorist attacks. The findings of event study methodology and market model show that CAARs were slightly negative but not statistically significant and during event date, and average abnormal return (AAR) was slightly positive at 0.0273 per cent. The event caused no influence on the stock market. Practical implications Results are important for banking system, compliance and regulatory authorities, justice system and politicians. Originality/value The impact of Greek forest fires in August 2007 on Greek banks stocks has not been examined so far.

The LMRDA. Another labor law that benefits firms?

2017 ◽  
Vol 59 (1) ◽  
pp. 2-20
Author(s):  
Steven E. Abraham
Keyword(s):  
Design Methodology ◽  
Labor Law ◽  
Labor Management ◽  
Shareholder Returns ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Study Methodology ◽  
The Law ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Management Reporting ◽  
Event Study Methodology

Purpose This paper aims to examine the impact of the Labor Management Reporting and Disclosure Act (LMRDA). It is expected that returns would have increased in response to the law’s passage, as it imposed a number of restrictions on unions vis-à-vis management and instituted many rules regulating unions’ internal affairs. Design/methodology/approach This paper uses event study methodology, which examines the impact of the law’s passage on the shareholder returns to the firms likely to have been affected by the law. Three different samples are used. Shareholder returns are examined on critical dates associated with the passage of the law to assess whether it benefited the firms in the samples. Findings Shareholder returns to firms expected to have been affected by the LMRDA fell in comparison to their competitors’ returns, indicating that the law was viewed by investors as being beneficial for firms. Presumably, the restrictions the law placed on unions were judged to be more important by investors than the improvement in unions’ image that might have resulted from the law, indicating that the law benefitted firms. Originality/value This is the first paper that has examined the impact of the LMRDA empirically to assess its impact on firms.

FATCA violation underlies latest US tax and securities fraud charges

2015 ◽  
Vol 16 (1) ◽  
pp. 74-76
Author(s):  
Miriam Fisher ◽  
Brian McManus
Keyword(s):  
Law Enforcement ◽  
Service Providers ◽  
Task Force ◽  
Tax Compliance ◽  
Financial Fraud ◽  
Securities Fraud ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Impact ◽  
First Time ◽  
Practical Implications

Purpose – To explain the details and implications of a September 9, 2014 federal indictment, US v. Robert Bandfield, the first time a Foreign Account Tax Compliance Act (FATCA) violation has been charged as an “overt act” in furtherance of a tax conspiracy and securities fraud. Design/methodology/approach – Provides background, including the enactment of FATCA and the details of the indictment; describes an undercover investigation conducted by President Obama’s Financial Fraud Enforcement Task Force; and discusses the warnings this indictment sends to the global financial community. Findings – The indictment confirms the coordinated and aggressive tactics US law enforcement is now employing to investigate and prosecute offshore financial fraud. Practical implications – Banks and financial service providers need to be aware of the impact of enhanced US regulatory obligations and implement appropriate compliance measures. These institutions must also remain sensitive to risks presented by unscrupulous customers. Finally, they must be ready to manage appropriately information-gathering and investigatory inquiries originating with US authorities. Originality/value – Practical guidance from experienced tax controversy lawyers.

Market reactions to the inclusion of people with disabilities

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Claudia Araceli Hernández González
Keyword(s):  
Event Study ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Abnormal Returns ◽  
People With Disabilities ◽  
Market Reactions ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Study Methodology ◽  
Research Advance ◽  
The Impact

PurposeThis study aims to provide evidence of market reactions to organizations' inclusion of people with disabilities. Cases from financial journals in 1989–2014 were used to analyze the impact of actions taken by organizations to include or discriminate people with disabilities in terms of the companies' stock prices.Design/methodology/approachThis research is conducted as an event study where the disclosure of information on an organization's actions toward people with disabilities is expected to impact the organization's stock price. The window of the event was set as (−1, +1) days. Stock prices were analyzed to detect abnormal returns during this period.FindingsResults support the hypotheses that investors value inclusion and reject discrimination. Furthermore, the impact of negative actions is immediate, whereas the impact of positive actions requires at least an additional day to influence the firm's stock price. Some differences among the categories were found; for instance, employment and customer events were significantly more important to a firm's stock price than philanthropic actions. It was observed that philanthropic events produce negative abnormal returns on average.Originality/valueThe event study methodology provides a different perspective to practices in organizations regarding people with disabilities. Moreover, the findings in this research advance the literature by highlighting that organizations should consider policies and practices that include people with disabilities.

New product announcement: spokesperson a manifestation of increasing firm value

2018 ◽  
Vol 13 (6) ◽  
pp. 1635-1655
Author(s):  
Bikram Jit Singh Mann ◽  
Sonia Babbar
Keyword(s):  
Event Study ◽  
Firm Value ◽  
Source Credibility ◽  
Shareholder Value ◽  
Abnormal Returns ◽  
New Product ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Study Methodology ◽  
The Impact

Purpose Before introducing new products, companies make announcements regarding the launch of the product which influences stock market yields of the announcing companies. Information content of the new product announcement has never been an exclusive focused stream of research. Therefore, an assessment of the impact of the content characteristics of the new product announcement on the shareholder value and the impact of source credibility (spokesperson) in making such announcements is a major gap in the existing literature. The paper aims to discuss these issues. Design/methodology/approach First, the standard event study methodology has been employed on the sample to measure the abnormal gains/losses accruing to the announcing firms. Second, moderated regression analysis (MRA) is employed to identify the characteristics of the new product announcement and to check the role of the spokesperson in creating shareholder value. Findings The results of the event study indicate that the abnormal returns are generated during the new product announcement. The results of MRA disclose the variables having a positive and a significant influence on the effective returns of the announcing companies. Likewise, the role of the spokesperson has come out brightly as a credible communicator. Originality/value The research provides a direction to the announcing companies regarding the content of the announcement leading to a positive perception among the investing community. Likewise, it also provides direction to the investor community about the characteristics of the announcement content they give weight age in forming a perception of strength in evaluating the new product announcement, to which they are largely unaware.

ManAGEment: the challenges of global age diversity for corporations and governments

2014 ◽  
Vol 27 (4) ◽  
pp. 553-568 ◽  
Author(s):  
John F. Mahon ◽  
Carla C.J.M. Millar
Keyword(s):  
Public Policy ◽  
Aging Workforce ◽  
Corporate Policies ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Age Diversity ◽  
Dependency Ratios ◽  
Multiple Dimensions ◽  
Global Age ◽  
The Impact ◽  
First Time

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to investigate the challenges, worldwide of managing an aging workforce. The paper offers suggestions for public policy and for individual organizational approaches to developing, managing and motivating an aging workforce. Design/methodology/approach – The paper reviews in depth international literature, public policies and corporate policies that deal with an aging workforce. Findings – In virtually every nation in the world, society is aging and the costs to society – on multiple dimensions demand organizational action and changes in public policy. For the first time in recorded history the number of people aged 65+ will exceed those 15 and under starting in 2015. It is also predicted that those 80+ will be greater than those under 15 in Europe by 2060. Originality/value – This paper explores the impact of a worldwide aging society on the management of organizations and the demands that this aging will place on public policy. It addresses the profound impacts of changing dependency ratios on nations and on their future competitiveness.

scholarly journals Is the market swayed by press releases on corporate governance? Event study on the Eurostoxx banks

2018 ◽  
Vol 15 (3) ◽  
pp. 23-31 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marina Brogi ◽  
Valentina Lagasio
Keyword(s):  
Corporate Governance ◽  
Event Study ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Investment Decisions ◽  
Press Releases ◽  
European Banks ◽  
Study Methodology ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Governance Disclosure ◽  
Event Study Methodology

Are press releases on Corporate Governance price sensitive? What is the impact of Corporate Governance information on stock prices of banks? This paper addresses these questions by applying an event study methodology on 70 press releases published by the Euro area banks listed on the Eurostoxx banks Index, from 2007 to 2016. Systemic shocks are explored as well idiosyncratic ones. Our results show that investment decisions are significantly but negatively influenced by the disclosure of a press release on corporate governance as if this kind of news leads investors to perceive the banks’ prospects negatively. The best of our knowledge this is the first paper that investigates European banks press releases on corporate governance. Findings are relevant for banks’ management and their disclosure policy. Nonetheless, further research is needed to investigate differences and similarities between an area of governance disclosure and another.

scholarly journals The impacts of interest rate changes on US Midwest farmland values

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Albulena Basha ◽  
Wendong Zhang ◽  
Chad Hart
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Great Plains ◽  
Federal Reserve ◽  
State Level ◽  
Land Values ◽  
Federal Funds ◽  
Federal Funds Rate ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Farmland Values

PurposeThis paper quantifies the effects of recent Federal Reserve interest rate changes, specifically recent hikes and cuts in the federal funds rate since 2015, on Midwest farmland values.Design/methodology/approachThe authors apply three autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) models to a panel data of state-level farmland values from 1963 to 2018 to estimate the dynamic effects of interest rate changes on the US farmland market. We focus on the I-states, Lakes states and Great Plains states. The models in the study capture both short-term and long-term impacts of policy changes on land values.FindingsThe authors find that changes in the federal funds rate have long-lasting impacts on farmland values, as it takes at least a decade for the full effects of an interest rate change to be capitalized in farmland values. The results show that the three recent federal funds rate cuts in 2019 were not sufficient to offset the downward pressures from the 2015–2018 interest rate hikes, but the 2020 cut is. The combined effect of the Federal Reserve's recent interest rate moves on farmland values will be positive for some time starting in 2022.Originality/valueThis paper provides the first empirical quantification of the immediate and long-run impacts of recent Federal Reserve interest rate moves on farmland values. The authors demonstrate the long-lasting repercussions of Federal Reserve's policy choices in the farmland market.

The impact of qualified audit opinion on stock returns: an empirical study at Amman stock exchange

2022 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Rana Bayo Flees ◽  
Sulaiman Mouselli
Keyword(s):  
Stock Returns ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Abnormal Returns ◽  
Market Model ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Going Concern ◽  
Study Approach ◽  
Audit Opinions ◽  
The Impact ◽  
First Time

Purpose This paper aims to investigate the impact of qualified audit opinions on the returns of stocks listed at Amman Stock Exchange (ASE) after the introduction of the recent amendments by the International Auditing and Assurance Standard Board (IAASB) on audits reporting and conclusions. It further investigates if results differ between first time qualified and sequenced qualifications, and between plain qualified opinion and qualifications with going concern. Design/methodology/approach Audit opinions’ announcements and stock returns data are collected from companies’ annual reports for the fiscal years 2016 to 2019 while stock returns are computed from stock closing prices published at ASE website. The authors apply the event study approach and use the market model to calculate normal returns. Cumulative abnormal returns (CARs) and average abnormal returns (AARs) are computed for all qualified audit opinions’ announcements. Findings The empirical evidence suggests that investors at ASE do not react to qualified audit opinions announcements. That is, the authors find an insignificant impact of qualified audit opinion announcements on stock returns using both CAR and AAR estimates. The results are robust to first time and sequenced qualifications, and for qualifications with going concern. Results are also robust to the use of risk adjusted market model. Research limitations/implications The insignificant impact of qualified audit opinions on stock returns have two potential conflicting research implications. First, the new amendments introduced to auditors’ report made them more informative and reduce the negative signals contained in the qualified opinions. That is, investors are now aware of the real causes of qualifications and not overreacting to the qualified opinion. Second, the documented insignificant impact confirms that ASE is not a semi-strong form efficient. Practical implications The apparent excessive use of qualifications should ring the bell on whether auditors misuse their power or companies are really in trouble. Hence, the Jordanian regulatory bodies need to warn auditors against the excessive use of qualifications on the one hand, and to raise the awareness of investors on the implications of auditors’ opinions on the other hand. Originality/value This study is innovative in twofold. First, it explores the impact of qualified audit opinions on stock returns after the introduction of new amendments by IAASB at ASE. In addition, it uses event study approach and distinguishes between first time qualified and sequenced qualifications, and between plain qualified opinion and qualifications with going concern. The results are consistent with efficient market theory and behavioral finance explanations.

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