Trump positions could trigger NAFTA talks breakdown

Significance Canadian Foreign Affairs Minister Chrystia Freeland presented on August 14 a number of conditions for the talks. The negotiation objectives of President Donald Trump's administration tread onto several red-line issues for the Canadian and Mexican governments, which will seek vigorously to defend their respective national interests in the face of US protectionism. At stake is the integrated North American economy that has existed since 1993, with significant continental economic repercussions to be expected should negotiations go sour. Impacts The US political fixation on trade deficits will lead to economically sub-par NAFTA positions. Republican legislators and governors will seek to rein in disruptive positions by the White House ahead of 2018. Staffing cuts will diminish US negotiating capacity compared to their Canadian and Mexican counterparts.

Author(s):  
Evgeny Khoroshilov

In the XXI century, there is a slight decline in the importance of the United States for Canada as an economic partner, but the United States remain the main external force influencing the development of the Canadian economy. Canada is interested in unhindered access of its goods to the American market, free flow of capital between the two countries, the development of North American economic integration and, most importantly, in sustainable economic growth in the United States. If the economic policy of the Joe Biden administration ensures the dynamic development of the American economy, then this will have a positive impact on the Canadian economy. At the same time, a number of provisions of Biden's economic strategy, such as raising the corporate income tax, strengthening control over mergers and acquisitions, and the "Buy American" policy, contradict Canadian economic interests. At first glance, the Biden administration's commitment to combating climate change is also negative for Canada. However, a number of Canadian stakeholders may also become beneficiaries of the new "green" course of the American economy. In general, the Canadian establishment believes that Canada’s national interests are in further integration of the US and Canadian economies. The Biden administration's tenure in the White House is unlikely to be an obstacle to this process.


2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Dalia Hamed

Purpose The purpose of this study is to apply a corpus-assisted analysis of keywords and their collocations in the US presidential discourse from Clinton to Trump to discover the meanings of these words and the collocates they have. Keywords are salient words in a corpus whose frequency is unusually high (positive keywords) or low (negative keywords) in comparison with a reference corpus. Collocation is the co-occurrence of words. Design/methodology/approach To achieve this purpose, the investigation of keywords and collocations is generated by AntConc, a corpus processing software. Findings This analysis leads to shed light on the similarities and/or differences amongst the past four American presidents concerning their key topics. Keyword analysis through keyness makes it evident that Clinton and Obama, being Democrats, demonstrate a clear tendency to improve Americans’ life inside their social sphere. Obama surpasses Clinton as regard foreign affairs. Clinton and Obama’s infrequent subjects have to do with terrorism and immigration. This complies with their condensed focus on social and economic improvements. Bush, a republican, concentrates only on external issues. This is proven by his keywords signifying war against terrorism. Bush’s negative use of words marking cooperative actions conforms to his positive use of words indicating external war. Trump’s positive keywords are about exaggerated descriptions without a defined target. He also shows an unusual frequency in referring to his name and position. His words used with negative keyness refer to reforming programs and external issues. Collocations around each top content keyword clarify the word and harmonize with the presidential orientation negotiated by the keywords. Research limitations/implications Limitations have to do with the issue of the accurate representation of the samples. Originality/value This research is original in its methodology of applying corpus linguistics tools in the analysis of presidential discourses.


2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Vinicius Phillipe de Albuquerquemello ◽  
Cássio Besarria

PurposeThe aim of this paper is to assess whether the inclusion of the rental housing market affect the dynamics of the real business cycles (RBCs).Design/methodology/approachFor this investigation, the authors model and estimate two dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) versions for the US economy, one with and one without the presence of residential rent.FindingsThe findings provide evidence that the inclusion of the rental housing market can improve the assessment of public policies and the projection of scenarios in the face of sudden macroeconomic shocks. The addition of this secondary housing market augments the effect of total factor productivity (TFP) shock on output and consumption. In addition, it increases the effect of the credit shock on the demand for housing. The latter highlights the role of credit for the real estate market. Therefore, the authors recommend that analysts and macro-prudential authorities consider adding it to their models.Originality/valueThe findings provide evidence that the inclusion of the rental housing market can improve the assessment of public policies and the projection of scenarios in the face of sudden macroeconomic shocks.


Subject The US Global Magnitsky Act. Significance Congress passed the Global Magnitsky Act as part of an annual national defence bill on December 8 and President Barack Obama is expected to sign it before the end of the year. The legislation allows the president to impose sanctions against individuals tied to official corruption and extrajudicial killings carried out in retaliation for uncovering illegal or corrupt acts. Impacts Jurisdictions in Australia, Canada, Singapore and the United Kingdom may also seek to boost real estate transparency. The White House may use its new sanctioning powers to pressure Iran and burnish its anti-Tehran credentials. The example set by Trump’s future use of the Global Magnitsky Act will be directly correlated with its chance of renewal in 2022.


Subject Outlook for US policy engagement with Myanmar as the US presidential transition nears. Significance The White House is preparing to lift most remaining US sanctions on Myanmar, after President Barack Obama's September 14 announcement to this effect when he met Myanmar State Counsellor Aung San Suu Kyi. Washington will also restore Myanmar's access to the US Generalized System of Preferences (GSP) because of recent improvements in labour rights. Supporting Myanmar's democratic 'transition' has been a key Obama policy and the president is attempting to fix progress before his successor takes office in January 2017. Impacts Myanmar's government will deepen ties with Beijing, but not necessarily to the extent of eclipsing US ties. The Rohingya issue will still cause some friction in Myanmar-US ties. Policy gaps and delays on Myanmar between the US Congress and next president may expand.


Subject US monetary policy outlook for 2016 and its global impact. Significance There is a large discrepancy between the US Federal Reserve (Fed)'s estimates for interest rates at end-2016 and the expectations of bond investors. The latter are anticipating less tightening than the 100-basis-point (bp) rise in the Federal Funds rate the Fed has pencilled in for this year. Despite a successful rates 'lift-off' on December 16, the Fed faces many challenges in raising rates in the face of mounting stress in credit markets, disinflationary pressures from the plunge in commodity prices and a contraction manufacturing. Impacts While the Fed will tighten policy, other central banks, including the ECB, will provide further stimulus, accentuating policy divergence. Investors will price in a more hawkish Fed if US inflation accelerates faster than expected, potentially leading to a sell-off. Concerns about China's economy and the commodity prices slump will also shape investor sentiment.


Subject The US indictment of Russian intelligence officers. Significance The latest indictment to come out of the investigation led by Special Counsel Robert Mueller is the most striking yet as it targets Russian state actors for the first time. It sets out charges of hacking into Democratic Party networks, stealing more than 50,000 documents and using them for disruptive purposes in the 2016 US presidential election. Despite the considerable level of detail in the evidence offered, the White House has yet to address publicly the issues raised or confronting Russia. Impacts US government, election software providers, parties and social media platforms will face pressure to prepare for the midterm elections. Detailed attribution of cyber interference will likely weaken the notion that perpetrators enjoy a high level of plausible deniability. Hackers will continue to employ 'spearphishing' for its simplicity, success rate and cost-effectiveness.


Subject The State Department. Significance The US State Department’s third-ranking official and most senior career diplomat, Tom Shannon, announced his departure on February 1. While the 60-year old Shannon said he was stepping down for personal reasons, he is only the latest in a stream of senior career diplomats who have left since Donald Trump became president a year ago and appointed Rex Tillerson as secretary of state with a mandate to downsize the department. Impacts Minimising the benefits of diplomacy in favour of military action could exacerbate foreign policy crises and conflicts. White House heel-dragging on filling posts both 'streamlines' State and avoids congressional confirmation scrutiny of political nominees. Concerned that State wields little influence with the White House, Congress will be more assertive in the foreign policy process. Other powers -- particularly US allies -- will seek and have increased direct influence on the White House, cutting out State.


2014 ◽  
Vol 27 (8) ◽  
pp. 1265-1270 ◽  
Author(s):  
Timothy J. Fogarty

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to set out to examine and critique the current state and future trajectory of interdisciplinary accounting research in the USA. Design/methodology/approach – The analysis is based on the author's involvement in and research into accounting research and publication contexts, drivers and patterns in the accounting discipline. Findings – In all likelihood, research will continue established traditions that prevent the explorations of economics and finance from material broadening. This paper identifies how that which everyone believes to be such a good idea cannot bear fruit. Research limitations/implications – Conventional economics-based accounting research has proliferated in volume but has largely exhausted its potential for significant contributions to knowledge. Failure to embrace broadened interdisciplinary perspectives risks a crisis of accounting research contribution to policy, practice, and society. Originality/value – This critique reveals the serious weaknesses and serious risks to international accounting scholarship of the continuance and global mimicking of the North American pursuit of an exclusively economic accounting research perspective.


Significance Cuba is working on many fronts to advance its international insertion after the breakthrough restoration of diplomatic ties with the United States. However, progress is gradual and uneven. A first agreement on Cuba's debt has been reached with the Paris Club, underscoring Cuba's interest in regaining access to financial markets. The Latin American Development Bank (CAF) is the first international financial institution to engage with Cuba, but broader cooperation still faces difficulties. Impacts The popular pope's visit will strengthen the Church's political position as Cuba's most important non-state institution. It will also add to pressure on the US Congress from the White House to lift sanctions. Cooperation with CAF and other bodies will require Cuba to supply transparent and comprehensive economic data -- mostly still lacking. Economic reform is likely to see major new liberalisation measures before the Communist Party congress scheduled for April 2016.


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