Uzbek privatisations will underpin reform ambitions

Significance The decree reflects President Shavqat Mirzioyev's committment to an economic reform process -- a major task in the face of structural and institutional rigidity. Economic change has not been matched by political reform, despite some improvements to law enforcement. Impacts The reform process is at risk of being slowed or halted by the combined forces of inertia and vested interests. The practice of directing credit to favoured insiders will continue to disadvantage others in the private sector. Beijing's Belt and Road initiatives will be supported by Uzbekistan's increasingly collaborative government.

Subject Outlook for Tanzania's new administration. Significance In his first two months in office, President John Magufuli has been quick to tackle corruption, address falling tax revenues and improve governance. Other economic difficulties still confront his new administration, and he faces the challenge of establishing his authority, which will be vital in securing reforms in the face of vested interests and in addressing the political crisis in Zanzibar. Impacts Low cost carrier Fastjet's new routes and lower fares will help boost intra-East Africa travel, helping regional economic integration. Political cleavages, especially in Zanzibar, could provide inroads for low-level Islamist militant activity, posing moderate threats. Unlike Kenya, where risks are greater, this is unlikely to deter tourism; the sector will also benefit from higher budget allocations. Magafuli's endorsement of the African Union's proposed peacekeeping deployment in Burundi may encourage regional states to back the plan.


Subject The Cuban economy. Significance Less than three months before President Raul Castro is due to step down from the state leadership, Cuba’s economy is in decline and its reform process has stalled. Castro’s heir apparent, Vice President Miguel Diaz-Canel, is keeping a low profile and promising continuity. An emerging independent media is causing concern in government circles but has not yet led to a crackdown. Impacts The economic downturn will strain society but an outburst of social unrest remains unlikely for now. As US pressure and domestic tensions rise, Havana will strive for cohesion, even if this stalls economic reform. Trump's confrontational politics force Havana to seek foreign investment elsewhere and to maintain good relations with the EU and Canada.


Significance Belgium’s competitiveness has been undermined by the indexation of wages to inflation and its GDP growth has trailed that of the euro-area since 2015. However, a tax and economic reform package implemented since 2016 has contributed to a pickup in growth in 2017-18. Impacts Business investment is expected to be the fastest-growing component of GDP growth. The National Bank of Belgium estimates that the tax reform will add 1.2% to GDP and allow the creation of more than 50,000 jobs in 2016-20. The reform package is mostly self-financed, so the general government deficit is expected to stay around 1.0-1.5% of GDP in 2018-19. The 2019 elections could derail the reform process if forming a coalition proves difficult or if parties' policy priorities diverge.


Significance Currency exchange liberalisation starting with a 100% devaluation on September 5 is the first substantive domestic policy reform of Shavqat Mirzioyev's presidency. A year after becoming interim president, Mirzioyev has made bold moves on foreign policy, modest but significant steps towards economic liberalisation and little or no political reform. Impacts Power struggles will be played out behind closed doors. Citizens already appear grateful to Mirzioyev for making life less tough. Although Mirzioyev is courting foreign states, none will come to his aid in a domestic crisis.


Subject The outlook for economic reform. Significance The government is carrying out a series of changes to laws and regulations affecting the business environment, aiming to make the economy more competitive and encouraging investors. Legislation on taxation and labour markets is already before parliament. Some landmark changes could be made, particularly in taxation. Other steps may be minor or partial, and their contribution to the economy and business environment may be less clear. Impacts The reform process may well help stabilise Turkey's ranking in international business indices. For individual firms, significant opportunities or benefits could arise, or changes in the environments in which they operate. Financial markets will react positively to progress on reforms, despite a focus on global financial and economic conditions and politics.


Subject Cuban COVID-19 response. Significance As Cuba sends hundreds of health workers abroad to fight the COVID-19 pandemic, infection numbers are rising at home. ‘Medical internationalism’ is the humanitarian flagship of Cuba’s foreign policy, but the country’s health system faces an uphill battle against the spread of the virus. Cuba's economic crisis is worsening and a return to an emergency economy looms large. Impacts Cuba’s foreign medical missions will expand further, with the WHO likely to seek assistance in Africa, as it did during the Ebola crisis. Reduced tourism has seen 16,000 would-be entrepreneurs in Cuba’s emergent private sector turn in their licences -- more will follow. The state’s capacity to confine the infected and mobilise workers may help it respond to the crisis, but resource shortages pose problems.


Subject Political reform in Hong Kong. Significance On June 18, the Legislative Council (LegCo) vetoed a Beijing-backed reform plan that would have instituted direct elections for the territory's highest official, the chief executive, in future elections. The reform package, heavily promoted by the local administration, ultimately received only eight 'yes' votes, a stinging rebuke for both the local and central governments. Opposition centred on a proposed nominating committee that would vet candidates before the general election. Democracy advocates saw this as a non-starter, since the committee would likely exclude candidates that were not docile towards Beijing. Impacts The constitutional reform process will stall in the short term. Pro-democracy advocates and legislators will face greater hostility from Beijing and the local government. Beijing is less likely to back measures to assuage public opinion, such as curbs on visits by mainlanders. Businesses and many residents will welcome a period of calm while the pro-democracy camp decides a long-term strategy. LegCo will become more dysfunctional, with pan-democratic legislators likely to block unrelated measures to express frustration.


Significance This comes following high tensions with teachers, who engaged in a series of widespread protests after the Attorney-General ordered the closure of the Teachers' Union and forcible dissolution of its leadership on July 25. There were scores of arrests and an unprecedented reporting ban. Impacts The government will lack capacity to fulfil economic pledges made to public sector workers in 2019. Further setbacks to the much-delayed political reform process will complicate Western pledges of financial support. If November elections are compromised, the current government of Omar al-Razzaz could face dissolution. Negotiations for Emirati aid could lead to harsher measures against the Muslim Brotherhood and Turkish or Qatari influence.


Author(s):  
Geoffrey T. Stewart ◽  
Ramesh Kolluru ◽  
Mark Smith

PurposeAs noted in the Department of Homeland Security's National Response Framework, disasters are inherently local and ultimately the responsibility of the lowest jurisdictional level present within the impacted area. Given these parameters, this paper aims to sharpen the concept of national resilience by recommending a framework which positions community resilience as an integral variable in understanding the ability of impacted areas to effectively manage the consequences of disasters. Conceptualized as a dependent variable, community resilience is influenced by the relationships government (public) agencies develop with private sector partners and the resilience of relevant supply chains and critical infrastructures/key resources which exist in their communities.Design/methodology/approachThe authors augment a topical literature review of academic and practitioner journals by synthesizing existing findings into a holistic framework of community resilience.FindingsThis paper argues that interdependent systems like social and economic networks will ultimately influence the ability of communities to adapt and respond to the consequences of disasters. In addressing the resilience of these systems, all levels of government must recognize and embrace the public‐private interfaces that can improve their ability to manage the response and recovery phases of disaster management. While 85 percent of critical infrastructure is owned by the private sector, 100 percent of it exists within communities and impacts the ability of the nation to recover from disasters. Resilience calls upon active management and relies upon assessment and a willingness to take action in the face of adversity.Originality/valueResilience is discussed within economics, behavioral sciences, supply chain management and critical infrastructure protection. This paper integrates these research streams to develop a framework for shaping national resilience.


2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Fabian Maximilian Johannes Teichmann ◽  
Marie-Christin Falker

Purpose This paper aims to illustrate how illegally obtained funds are laundered through raw diamonds in Austria, Germany, Liechtenstein and Switzerland. Design/methodology/approach To identify specific money laundering techniques involving raw diamonds, this study used a qualitative content analysis of data collected from 60 semi-standardized interviews with both criminals and prevention experts and a quantitative survey of 200 compliance officers. Findings Raw diamonds are extraordinarily suitable for money laundering in European German-speaking countries. In particular, they may be used in all three stages of the laundering process, namely, placement, layering and integration. Research limitations/implications Because the qualitative findings are based on semi-standardized interviews, their insights are limited to the perspectives of the 60 interviewees. Practical implications Identifying gaps in existing anti-money laundering mechanisms should provide compliance officers, law enforcement agencies and legislators with valuable insights into how criminals operate. Originality/value While prior studies focus on the methods used by organizations to combat money laundering and how to improve anti-money laundering measures, this paper investigates how money launderers operate to avoid detection, thereby illustrating authentic experiences. Its findings provide valuable insights into the minds of money launderers and combines criminal perspective with that of prevention experts.


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