New Kazakh leader will prioritise caution over change

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Presidential Election ◽  
Budget Deficit ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Current Economic Climate ◽  
Inflationary Pressure ◽  
Economic Climate ◽  
The Government ◽  
Labour Disputes ◽  
New Generation ◽  
Climate Events

Subject Challenges facing Kazakhstan under a new president. Significance When Kassym-Jomart Tokayev secured a comfortable victory in the June 9 presidential election, the vote was most notable for the new mood surrounding it: popular anger at lacklustre socio-economic development and the emergence of a new generation of political activists. In response, Tokayev's administration is weighing options for cooling passions and addressing popular grievances. Impacts Further spending will increase the budget deficit and add inflationary pressure. In the current economic climate, events such as disasters, protests and labour disputes have the potential to escalate dramatically. The government will continue to pursue inward investment despite limited reforms.

Portuguese coalition parties may clash over austerity

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
European Commission ◽  
Budget Deficit ◽  
Banking Sector ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Rating Agencies ◽  
Structural Funds ◽  
The Government

Significance This reflects the significant risks lying ahead for the government despite the European Council's decision on August 9 to waive fines for Portugal over its excessive budget deficit in 2015. Impacts The European Commission retains the possibility of suspending structural funds for Portugal. The decision to waive the fine could undermine the credibility of EU rules in the long term. Slower economic growth and the weak banking sector could lead to Portugal being downgraded by rating agencies.

Ghana's IMF bailout to persist despite souring ties

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Central Bank ◽  
Budget Deficit ◽  
Credit Rating ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Bank Financing ◽  
Electricity Crisis ◽  
Manufacturing Activity ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Imf

Significance Earlier this month, the government passed a bill allowing for central bank financing of the budget deficit, contravening a core requirement in its agreement with the Fund. Earlier breaches led to the fourth tranche of the bailout (worth 114 million dollars) being withheld. Impacts Other donors will withhold aid disbursements until the impasse between Accra and the IMF is resolved. The electricity crisis will continue to undermine manufacturing activity, contributing to disappointing GDP growth. Ivory Coast's pro-business reforms mean it could attract investors deterred by Ghana's economic woes. Prolonged tensions with the IMF coupled with a deterioration its Ghana's fiscal metrics may drive a credit rating downgrade.

Fiscal adjustment may prove painful in Uruguay

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Trade Union ◽  
Public Spending ◽  
High Income ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Public Finances ◽  
Fiscal Adjustment ◽  
Economic Climate ◽  
The Government ◽  
First Time ◽  
Economic Outlook

Subject Uruguay's economic outlook. Significance The government has determined a fiscal adjustment, with tax increases for middle- and high-income earners, delays in public spending plans and a reform of military pensions, in a bid to address worsening public finances. It is the first time that the leftist Frente Amplio (FA), in government since 2005, has faced an adverse economic climate. Impacts Austerity in a context of 'stagflation' will generate political and trade union tensions. Rising unemployment will drive a deterioration in real family incomes. Growth will remain paltry this year and next.

Tunisia’s jihadi fighters may test ties with Europe

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Law Enforcement ◽  
Asylum Seekers ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Broad Definition ◽  
The Status ◽  
The Government ◽  
Definition Of ◽  
Foreign Fighters ◽  
New Generation ◽  
At Home

Subject The government's response to returning foreign fighters. Significance The government is grappling with the problem of returning extremist nationals from foreign battlefields as well as Tunisians imprisoned at home and abroad. The status of illegal Tunisian migrants and asylum seekers in Europe has also generated tension, most strongly with Germany. Impacts Pressure from European governments to repatriate Tunisian citizens will further burden state resources and law enforcement efforts. Prosecuting individuals based on a broad definition of terrorism could further alienate and radicalise young Tunisians. Tunisia’s failure to address the problem of radicalisation in prisons may create a new generation of jihadi-salafist leaders.

Egyptian wage rises will increase economic disparities

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Public Sector ◽  
Minimum Wage ◽  
Informal Economy ◽  
Budget Deficit ◽  
Small Firms ◽  
Social Protection ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Public Sector Employees ◽  
The Government ◽  
Poverty Levels

Subject Planned pay increases in Egypt. Significance President Abdel Fatah el-Sisi in late March announced rises to the minimum wage, pensions and bonuses, which will be effective from July. This is intended to offset the inflationary effects of the 2016 currency devaluation, as well as austerity measures undertaken by the government in compliance with the terms of a 12-billion-dollar IMF loan. The wage reforms, however, target formal and public-sector employees and offer no benefit to more than 50% of the workforce employed in the informal economy. At the same time, the ambitious fiscal reform programme that Cairo has pursued over the past three years has increased poverty levels. Impacts Raising the minimum wage will in turn reduce spending on social protection programmes. Wage reforms will stimulate consumer spending and boost economic growth. The rising minimum wage will increase operating costs for small firms, which may evade paying the legal minimum through informal employment. Despite being intended to counter price rises, the changes risk fuelling cost-push inflation. Planned public sector pay rises risk increasing the budget deficit.

Guinea’s constitutional crisis may escalate further

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Civil Society ◽  
Public Sector ◽  
International Investment ◽  
Education Sector ◽  
Legislative Elections ◽  
National Front ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Economic Climate ◽  
The Government ◽  
Opposition Parties

Significance The National Front for the Defence of the Constitution (FNDC) coalition, a grouping of opposition parties and civil society groups, has vowed to continue protests until the government drops its plans. A referendum over a new constitution could be held as early as December alongside planned legislative elections. Impacts The crisis could put the economy under growing pressure, resulting in reduced international investment and potential aid freezes. The worsening economic climate could see public-sector strikes intensify, particularly in the education sector. Persistent protests may trigger defections from the governing Rally of the Guinean People (RPG) and its allies. A potential compromise is that Conde pursues a new constitution as a legacy project, while agreeing to abandon any third-term bid.

Sri Lanka will struggle to escape its debt trap

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Sri Lanka ◽  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
Political Instability ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Investor Confidence ◽  
Debt Problem ◽  
Sovereign Bonds ◽  
Outstanding Debt ◽  
The Government

Subject Sri Lanka's debt problem. Significance Sri Lanka late last month said it was planning to issue international sovereign bonds (ISBs) worth some 1.5 billion dollars, helping to repay loans soon to mature. The country’s gross outstanding debt stock rose to nearly 70% of GDP in 2018 from just under 40% in 2008. Impacts Debates around the presidential election due later this year will likely be dominated by security concerns rather than the economy. Political instability caused by rifts within the government will damage investor confidence in the country. Sri Lanka will step up efforts to attract tourists, hoping to sustain a key source of foreign exchange earnings.

Romanian ruling party could limit post-Dragnea reforms

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
Budget Deficit ◽  
European Parliament ◽  
Social Democrats ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Judicial Appointments ◽  
The Social ◽  
Ruling Party ◽  
The Eu

Subject Romania after Dragnea. Significance For much of the last five years that Liviu Dragnea controlled the Social Democrats (PSD), he also dominated the Romanian state politically. His 42-month sentence for corruption, handed down on May 27, has opened up a vacuum in the ruling PSD, and there is no obvious successor. The verdict came immediately after two electoral blows -- massive defeat in the European Parliament (EP) elections; and a resounding rebuff in a non-binding referendum in which over 80% opposed PSD attempts to amend or cancel anti-corruption legislation. Impacts President Iohannis is likely to assert himself in foreign policy, but has lost leverage in deciding senior judicial appointments. The presidential election this autumn may not be crucial in the tussle for power, as the presidency has much-reduced powers. The EU will be highly critical of Romania’s fast-increasing budget deficit, a legacy of the Dragnea era.

Oil prices will increase Ecuador's fiscal pressures

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Budget Deficit ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Full Control ◽  
Public Resources ◽  
Oil Sector ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Impact Of Falling

Significance The collapse of world oil prices has brought fiscal policy sharply into focus in Ecuador. At a time when the budget deficit is widening and the opposition is strengthening, the government faces the prospect of receiving significantly less income from the oil sector than anticipated. The fallout from the plunge of oil prices coincides with the beginning of the constitutional debate that could allow the re-election of President Rafael Correa in 2017. Impacts The government will intensify efforts to raise oil output in a bid to ease the impact of falling oil prices. Conflicts between central and local government will probably increase as public resources become scarcer. If oil prices remain low, the appeal of exiting dollarisation and establishing full control over monetary policy will rise.

Political crisis threatens Brazil's tentative recovery

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Presidential Election ◽  
Political Crisis ◽  
The Political ◽  
Political Class ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Construction Company ◽  
The Media ◽  
The Government

Significance The requests are based on plea bargains from former executives of construction company Odebrecht. While the names in ‘Janot’s list’ have not been disclosed, several of them have leaked to the media. They include six ministers in the government of President Michel Temer, two former presidents, ten state governors, and the heads of both houses of Congress. If confirmed, this would make the list a potent bombshell for the Brazilian political class. Impacts The corruption scandal looks set to disrupt next year’s presidential election. Politicians’ disdain for accountability will fuel outrage with the political class. The ground could be fertile for a candidate claiming to be an ‘outsider’.

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