Shinjiro Koizumi may become Japan’s prime minister

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
High Risk ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
English Speaker ◽  
Content Type ◽  
International Media ◽  
Policy Issues ◽  
Stepping Stone ◽  
The Public

Subject A profile of Shinjiro Koizumi. Significance Shinjiro Koizumi, Japan’s 38-year-old environment minister, is consistently ranked as the person the public would like to see replace Shinzo Abe as prime minister. Impacts Koizumi’s age and celebrity refresh the conservative LDP’s image and could broaden its appeal. His current post as environment minister is high risk, low reward; at best it is a stepping stone to more senior cabinet posts. Although he cultivates the image of a maverick, his actual record on major policy issues is careful ambivalence. As a fluent English speaker, he could connect with the international media in a way no previous Japanese leader has.

Political pressure mounts on Japanese media

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Freedom Of Expression ◽  
Press Freedom ◽  
Political Pressure ◽  
Content Type ◽  
International Media ◽  
The Public ◽  
The Media ◽  
Near Term ◽  
The Government

Significance The issue of media independence has become a fraught one under Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's administration, with perceptions rising among journalists and the public that the government is subjecting the media to political pressure. Critics of the administration speak of censorship and threats to freedom of expression. Japan's ranking in the World Press Freedom Index has fallen from 22nd in 2011-12, before Abe took office, to 61st in 2015. Impacts The government seems likely to try to marginalise the criticisms of constitutional scholars, like it marginalises its other critics. International media as well as domestic journalists are likely to feel some pressure from the authorities. In the near term, the issue is unlikely to destabilise the government, or derail passage of security legislation.

UK prime minister will likely remain in power for now

2022 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Northern Ireland ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Conservative Party ◽  
Culture Wars ◽  
Consumer Confidence ◽  
Party Leader ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Public ◽  
Net Zero ◽  
The Eu

Significance As many as a dozen lockdown parties are now alleged to have been held at Downing Street, significantly damaging Johnson’s support among the public and his Conservative Party. His position as party leader and prime minister is gravely threatened. Impacts Johnson’s domestic troubles, coupled with rising economic concerns, increase the chance of an agreement with the EU over Northern Ireland. Disillusionment with Johnson, opposition to net-zero and culture wars open the door for Nigel Farage’s Reform Party to revive its appeal. Rising inflation threatens to undermine consumer confidence and slow the economic recovery over the coming year.

Algeria aims to put its finances on a sustainable path

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
High Risk ◽  
Income Tax ◽  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Policy Reforms ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Finance Minister ◽  
Price Increases ◽  
Investment Law ◽  
Subsidy Reform

Significance The prime minister and finance minister, Aymane Benabderrahmane, has loaded some substantive policy reforms into the 2022 budget law, including a provision for reform of the subsidy system, revisions to the investment law and changes to income tax. Impacts There is a high risk that within the next five years there will be a slump in oil and gas prices. Algeria’s heavy reliance on hydrocarbons makes it particularly vulnerable once momentum builds up for global decarbonisation. Subsidy reform will entail price increases, even if they are gradually applied.

scholarly journals Fraud in overseas aid and the challenge of measurement

2015 ◽  
Vol 22 (2) ◽  
pp. 184-198 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mark Button ◽  
Chris Lewis ◽  
David Shepherd ◽  
Graham Brooks
Keyword(s):  
High Risk ◽  
International Development ◽  
Local Context ◽  
Structured Interviews ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Public ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Practical Implications

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to explore the challenges of measuring fraud in overseas aid. Design/methodology/approach – The research is based on 21 semi-structured interviews with key persons working in the delivery of aid in both the public and voluntary sectors. It uses the UK Department for International Development as a case study to applying more accurate measures of fraud. Findings – This paper shows there are significant challenges to using fraud loss measurement to gauge fraud in overseas aid. However, it argues that, along with other types of measures, it could be used in areas of expenditure in overseas governments and charities to measure aid. Given the high risk of such aid to fraud, it argues helping to develop capacity to reduce aid, of which measuring the size of the problem is an important part; this could be considered as aid in its own right. Research limitations/implications – The researchers were not able to visit high-risk countries for fraud to examine in the local context views on the challenges of measuring fraud. Practical implications – The paper offers insights on the challenges to accurately measuring fraud in an overseas context, which will be useful to policy-makers in this context. Social implications – Given the importance of as much aid as possible reaching recipients, it offers an important contribution to helping to reduce losses in this important area. Originality/value – There has been very little consideration of how to measure fraud in the overseas aid context, with most effort aimed at corruption, which poses some of the same challenges, as well as some very different challenges.

Israel may be heading for its third election in a year

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Right Wing ◽  
Not Given ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Public Finances ◽  
The Public ◽  
The Government

Significance On October 23, President Reuven Rivlin passed on the task of forming the government to Benny Gantz, leader of the centrist Blue and White alliance, after incumbent Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu failed. Neither the centre-left bloc nor the bloc of religious and right-wing parties (led by Netanyahu's Likud) has a majority without Yisrael Beiteinu, but so far Gantz and Netanyahu have failed to find an acceptable compromise despite pressure from Lieberman and Rivlin to form a unity administration. Meanwhile, Netanyahu himself faces an impending indictment on corruption charges. Impacts Consecutive rounds of elections will create a strain on the public finances. Netanyahu will refuse any power rotation deal where he is not given the premiership first. Another election, especially if coupled with an indictment, will accelerate a trend of public fatigue with Netanyahu.

Uganda president co-opts to dilute Mbabazi threat

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
High Risk ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Civil Conflict ◽  
Political Elite ◽  
The Political ◽  
Presidential Candidate ◽  
Regional Stability ◽  
Content Type ◽  
General Elections

Subject Election outlook in Uganda. Significance President Yoweri Museveni is confirmed as the National Resistance Movement's (NRM) official presidential candidate for February 2016 general elections. His most threatening challenger is former Prime Minister Amama Mbabazi, whose defection is the most significant in a decade. However, in the wake of the NRM party primaries and delegates conference, Museveni has shown his ability to consolidate support among the political elite. Impacts Uganda's elections will distract focus from its official mediation role in Burundi's deteriorating security crisis. However, Museveni may also guard Uganda's position as the regional mediator for fear of losing influence. Burundi is at high risk of civil conflict, with repercussions for regional stability ahead of Uganda's elections.

Demobilisation will test Mali peace process

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Peace Process ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Public ◽  
The North ◽  
Terrorism Threat ◽  
Joachim Gauck ◽  
State Group ◽  
Regional Elections

Subject Prospects for peace in Mali Significance French Prime Minister Manuel Valls visited Bamako on February 18-19, just days after German President Joachim Gauck, to reiterate international support for Mali. Western governments are concerned about the threat from jihadist groups operating in the country's Saharan north and their potential for developing links with Islamic State group (ISG) in Libya. Despite the expanded terrorism threat, there have been some positive developments: the peace process in the north has taken major strides forward and decentralisation aimed to underpin peace has advanced. Impacts International partners will reinforce security efforts. To combat the risk of terrorism in Bamako, the authorities will encourage the public to report suspicious activity at community level. Regional elections will offer non-jihadist former rebel leaders a chance to assume a share of power locally.

United Kingdom's Corbyn unlikely to face coup soon

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Labour Party ◽  
General Election ◽  
Leadership Positions ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Policy Issues ◽  
Eu Membership ◽  
The Government ◽  
Parliamentary Support

Significance The centrist, 'Blairite' section of the party has been defeated and largely excluded from leadership positions. Corbyn's past statements and policy stances are widely believed to render him implausible as a potential prime minister, and thus the Labour Party unelectable with him as leader. The likelihood of the governing Conservatives winning the 2020 general election has increased. Impacts Corbyn is likely to back continued UK EU membership in the referendum, helping to protect him from an early party coup. Because of his previous ambivalence, Corbyn's backing for continued EU membership will make it harder for the left to back 'Brexit'. Foreign policy issues will be among the most difficult under Corbyn, both within the party and with the government. Given the government's small majority, Corbyn's win will make parliamentary support for air strikes against Syrian targets harder to secure. Corbyn's win is unlikely to restore Labour's fortunes in Scotland, potentially boosting support for independence.

Ishiba cannot rival Abe for Japan leadership yet

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Security Policy ◽  
Democratic Party ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Liberal Democratic Party ◽  
Party Leader ◽  
Good Sense ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Public ◽  
Liberal Democratic ◽  
The Us

Subject A profile of Shigeru Ishiba. Significance Ishiba was runner-up to Abe in the 2012 leadership contest for the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and since then has positioned himself to replace Abe as party leader and prime minister should Abe's popularity falter. A poll last month showed that 20.4% of the public wanted Ishiba as prime minister compared with Abe's 19.7%, a dramatic swing since December, when Abe had 34.5% and Ishiba just 10.9%. Impacts Security policy is Ishiba's strength; he has well-developed views and a good sense of what is realistic. Ishiba's critique of Abenomics is lucid, but he has yet to offer a clear alternative. Washington would likely welcome an Ishiba government since he has good connections in the US defence establishment. Ishiba's Christianity may also win him points in Washington.

COVID-19 will cut tourism to Greece this year

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
High Risk ◽  
The Political ◽  
Public Healthcare ◽  
Economic Downturn ◽  
New Wave ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Public ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
High Unemployment Rate ◽  
Tourism Revenue

Significance Restrictions on the economy’s vital tourism branch are being lifted. However, airports outside Athens and Thessaloniki stay closed until June 30. Passengers from low-risk countries will be randomly tested for COVID-19. All passengers from high-risk countries, including the United Kingdom, will be tested: if negative, they must self-isolate for a week at their destination; if positive, they face a fortnight’s quarantine in Athens. Impacts Tensions with Italy will persist following a diplomatic row over its inclusion on the list of high-risk countries. The expected drop in tourism revenue will reduce the tax take and the chances of scaling back Greece’s high unemployment rate. The public healthcare system needs more resources to manage any further waves of the pandemic and complete long-awaited reforms. A severe and prolonged economic downturn and a new wave of the pandemic could deplete the political capital the new government has built up.

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