scholarly journals Estimating the serial interval of the novel coronavirus disease (COVID‐19) based on the public surveillance data in Shenzhen, China, from 19 January to 22 February 2020

2020 ◽  
Vol 67 (6) ◽  
pp. 2818-2822 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kai Wang ◽  
Shi Zhao ◽  
Ying Liao ◽  
Tiantian Zhao ◽  
Xiaoyan Wang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Surveillance Data ◽  
The Novel ◽  
The Public ◽  
Public Surveillance ◽  
Serial Interval ◽  
Novel Coronavirus

scholarly journals Modelling the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak on the Diamond Princess ship using the public surveillance data from January 20 to February 20, 2020

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shi Zhao ◽  
Peihua Cao ◽  
Daozhou Gao ◽  
Zian Zhuang ◽  
Marc KC Chong ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Stochastic Model ◽  
Doubling Time ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
The Novel ◽  
The Public ◽  
Public Surveillance ◽  
Transmission Process ◽  
Large Dispersion ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
The Basic Reproduction Number

AbstractThe novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak on the Diamond Princess ship has caused over 634 cases as of February 20, 2020. We model the transmission process on the ship with a stochastic model and estimate the basic reproduction number at 2.2 (95%CI: 2.1-2.4). We estimate a large dispersion parameter than other coronaviruses, which implies that the virus is difficult to go extinction. The epidemic doubling time is at 4.6 days (95%CI: 3.0-9.3), and thus timely actions were crucial. The lesson learnt on the ship is generally applicable in other settings.

Coronavirus: Towards controlling of the pandemic - Indian scenario

2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (SPL1) ◽  
pp. 462-468
Author(s):  
Latika kothari ◽  
Sanskruti Wadatkar ◽  
Roshni Taori ◽  
Pavan Bajaj ◽  
Diksha Agrawal
Keyword(s):  
Control Measures ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Medical Treatments ◽  
Health Crisis ◽  
The Public ◽  
Infection Control Measures ◽  
The Social ◽  
Asking Questions ◽  
The Government ◽  
Novel Coronavirus

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a communicable infection caused by the novel coronavirus resulting in severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV). It was recognized to be a health crisis for the general population of international concern on 30th January 2020 and conceded as a pandemic on 11th March 2020. India is taking various measures to fight this invisible enemy by adopting different strategies and policies. To stop the COVID-19 from spreading, the Home Affairs Ministry and the health ministry, of India, has issued the nCoV 19 guidelines on travel. Screening for COVID-19 by asking questions about any symptoms, recent travel history, and exposure. India has been trying to get testing kits available. The government of India has enforced various laws like the social distancing, Janata curfew, strict lockdowns, screening door to door to control the spread of novel coronavirus. In this pandemic, innovative medical treatments are being explored, and a proper vaccine is being hunted to deal with the situation. Infection control measures are necessary to prevent the virus from further spreading and to help control the current situation. Thus, this review illustrates and explains the criteria provided by the government of India to the awareness of the public to prevent the spread of COVID-19.

High cytokine levels and cytokine storm in the novel coronavirus infection

2021 ◽  
pp. 38-47
Author(s):  
Maksim Leonidovich Maksimov ◽  
Albina Ayratovna Zvegintseva ◽  
Lyudmila Yurievna Kulagina ◽  
Albina Zainutdinovna Nigmedzyanova ◽  
Elvina Ramisovna Kadyseva
Keyword(s):  
Peripheral Blood ◽  
High Frequency ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Cytokine Storm ◽  
The Public ◽  
Systemic Inflammatory Reaction ◽  
Scientific World ◽  
Cytokine Levels ◽  
Coronavirus Infection ◽  
Novel Coronavirus

A review article is based on current foreign sources. The level of cytokines in the peripheral blood can be increased in many diseases, but in some cases there may be an excess of their normal concentration in tens, hundreds or more times with the development of a peculiar clinical picture, which is based on a systemic inflammatory reaction. In the literature this condition has received the figurative name «cytokine storm», which highlights an extremely violent reaction of the immune system with an unknown (often unfavorable) outcome. Close attention of the scientific world and the public to the problem of extremely high levels of cytokines in the peripheral blood (hypercytokinemia) was drawn due to the high frequency of the cytokine storm in the novel coronavirus infection.

scholarly journals Prevalence and correlates of forgone care among adult Israeli Jews: A survey conducted during the COVID-19 outbreak

PLoS ONE ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (11) ◽  
pp. e0260399
Author(s):  
Perla Werner ◽  
Aviad Tur-Sinai
Keyword(s):  
Behavioral Model ◽  
Healthcare Services ◽  
Cross Sectional Study ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
The Public ◽  
The Social ◽  
Seeking Help ◽  
Novel Coronavirus

Efforts to control the spread of the novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic include drastic measures such as isolation, social distancing, and lockdown. These restrictions are accompanied by serious adverse consequences such as forgoing of healthcare. The study aimed to assess the prevalence and correlates of forgone care for a variety of healthcare services during a two-month COVID-19 lockdown, using Andersen’s Behavioral Model of Healthcare Utilization. A cross-sectional study using computerized phone interviews was conducted with 302 Israeli Jewish participants aged 40 and above. Almost half of the participants (49%) reported a delay in seeking help for at least one needed healthcare service during the COVID-19 lockdown period. Among the predisposing factors, we found that participants aged 60+, being more religious, and reporting higher levels of COVID-19 fear were more likely to report forgone care than younger, less religious and less concerned participants. Among need factors, a statistically significant association was found with a reported diagnosis of diabetes, with participants with the disease having a considerably higher likelihood of forgone care. The findings stress the importance of developing interventions aimed at mitigating the phenomenon of forgoing care while creating nonconventional ways of consuming healthcare services. In the short term, healthcare services need to adapt to the social distancing and isolation measures required to stanch the epidemic. In the long term, policymakers should consider alternative ways of delivering healthcare services to the public regularly and during crisis without losing sight of their budgetary consequences. They must recognize the possibility of having to align medical staff to the changing demand for healthcare services under conditions of health uncertainty.

scholarly journals A Comparative Corpus-Based Content Analysis of Head of Government Addresses in Response to the Covid-19 Pandemic: Japan and Western Countries

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 9-32
Author(s):  
Nagisa Moritoki Škof
Keyword(s):  
Content Analysis ◽  
Hierarchical Cluster ◽  
Political Orientation ◽  
The Novel ◽  
The Public ◽  
Quantitative Content ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Head Of Government ◽  
Heads Of Government

Addresses made by heads of government reflect their views and opinions. This article presents a quantitative content analysis of public addresses made by heads of government of the five countries, namely Japan, the USA, New Zealand, Germany, and Slovenia, which were done in response to the novel coronavirus (Covid-19). Word frequency analysis and hierarchical cluster analysis were used to identify the content specifics of these addresses.  The comparative analysis of speeches concerning the novel coronavirus enables us to determine how these addresses reflect the speakers’ perspectives and political orientation and what they attempted to convey to the public.

Curating the Evidence About COVID-19 for Frontline Public Health and Clinical Care: The Novel Coronavirus Research Compendium

2021 ◽  
pp. 003335492110587
Author(s):  
Andrew D. Redd ◽  
Lauren S. Peetluk ◽  
Brooke A. Jarrett ◽  
Colleen Hanrahan ◽  
Sheree Schwartz ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Clinical Care ◽  
The United States ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Health Crisis ◽  
The Public ◽  
Successful Model ◽  
Medical Response ◽  
Public Consumption ◽  
Novel Coronavirus

The public health crisis created by the COVID-19 pandemic has spurred a deluge of scientific research aimed at informing the public health and medical response to the pandemic. However, early in the pandemic, those working in frontline public health and clinical care had insufficient time to parse the rapidly evolving evidence and use it for decision-making. Academics in public health and medicine were well-placed to translate the evidence for use by frontline clinicians and public health practitioners. The Novel Coronavirus Research Compendium (NCRC), a group of >60 faculty and trainees across the United States, formed in March 2020 with the goal to quickly triage and review the large volume of preprints and peer-reviewed publications on SARS-CoV-2 and COVID-19 and summarize the most important, novel evidence to inform pandemic response. From April 6 through December 31, 2020, NCRC teams screened 54 192 peer-reviewed articles and preprints, of which 527 were selected for review and uploaded to the NCRC website for public consumption. Most articles were peer-reviewed publications (n = 395, 75.0%), published in 102 journals; 25.1% (n = 132) of articles reviewed were preprints. The NCRC is a successful model of how academics translate scientific knowledge for practitioners and help build capacity for this work among students. This approach could be used for health problems beyond COVID-19, but the effort is resource intensive and may not be sustainable in the long term.

scholarly journals The basic reproduction number and prediction of the epidemic size of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) in Shahroud, Iran

2020 ◽  
Vol 148 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Khosravi ◽  
R. Chaman ◽  
M. Rohani-Rasaf ◽  
F. Zare ◽  
S. Mehravaran ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Basic Reproduction Number ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Early Stage ◽  
Screening Tests ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Epidemic Size ◽  
Serial Interval ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Interval Distribution ◽  
The Basic Reproduction Number

Abstract The aim of this study was to estimate the basic reproduction number (R0) of COVID-19 in the early stage of the epidemic and predict the expected number of new cases in Shahroud in Northeastern Iran. The R0 of COVID-19 was estimated using the serial interval distribution and the number of incidence cases. The 30-day probable incidence and cumulative incidence were predicted using the assumption that daily incidence follows a Poisson distribution determined by daily infectiousness. Data analysis was done using ‘earlyR’ and ‘projections’ packages in R software. The maximum-likelihood value of R0 was 2.7 (95% confidence interval (CI): 2.1−3.4) for the COVID-19 epidemic in the early 14 days and decreased to 1.13 (95% CI 1.03–1.25) by the end of day 42. The expected average number of new cases in Shahroud was 9.0 ± 3.8 cases/day, which means an estimated total of 271 (95% CI: 178–383) new cases for the period between 02 April to 03 May 2020. By day 67 (27 April), the effective reproduction number (Rt), which had a descending trend and was around 1, reduced to 0.70. Based on the Rt for the last 21 days (days 46–67 of the epidemic), the prediction for 27 April to 26 May is a mean daily cases of 2.9 ± 2.0 with 87 (48–136) new cases. In order to maintain R below 1, we strongly recommend enforcing and continuing the current preventive measures, restricting travel and providing screening tests for a larger proportion of the population.

scholarly journals Lessons earned and lessons learned: What should be done next to counter the COVID-19 infodemic?

European View ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 19 (2) ◽  
pp. 154-163
Author(s):  
Nad’a Kovalčíková ◽  
Ariane Tabatabai
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Lessons Learned ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Health Crisis ◽  
The Public ◽  
Public Health Crisis ◽  
Societal Challenges ◽  
The World ◽  
Information Manipulation ◽  
Novel Coronavirus

As governments and citizens around the world have struggled with the novel coronavirus, the information space has turned into a battleground. Authoritarian countries, including Russia, China and Iran, have spread disinformation on the causes of and responses to the pandemic. The over-abundance of information, also referred to as an ‘infodemic’, including manipulated information, has been both a cause and a result of the exacerbation of the public health crisis. It is further undermining trust in democratic institutions, the independent press, and facts and data, and exacerbating the rising tensions driven by economic, political and societal challenges. This article discusses the challenges democracies have faced and the measures they have adopted to counter information manipulation that impedes public health efforts. It draws seven lessons learned from the information war and offers a set of recommendations on tackling future infodemics related to public health.

scholarly journals Dynamics based on analysis of public data for spreading of disease

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Leonardo S. Lima
Keyword(s):  
Planck Equation ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Epidemic Spreading ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Public Health Agencies ◽  
The Public ◽  
Public Data ◽  
Health Agencies ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Official Data

Abstract The stochastic model for epidemic spreading of the novel coronavirus disease based on the data set supported by the public health agencies in countries as Brazil, EUA and India is investigated. We perform the numerical analysis using the stochastic differential equation in Itô’s calculus (SDE) for the estimating of novel cases daily as well as analytical calculations solving the correspondent Fokker-Planck equation for the density probability distribution of novel cases, P(N(t); t). Our results display that the model based in the Itô diffusion fits well to the results due to uncertain in the official data and to the number of tests realized in the populations of each country.

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