Scenarios for the spread of COVID-19 analyzed by the TVBG-SEIR spline model

We develop a novel TVBG-SEIR spline model for analysis of the coronavirus infection (COVID-19). It aims to analyze the long-term global evolution of the epidemics "controlled" by the introduction of lockdown/open up measures by the authorities. The incorporation of different "lockdown scenarios" varying in time permits to analyze not only the primary epidemic wave but also the arising secondary wave and any further waves.The model is supplied by a web-based Scenario Building Tool for COVID-19 (called shortly SBT-COVID19) which may be used as a decision support software by (health) policy makers to explore various scenarios. This can be achieved by controlling/changing the scale of the containment measures (home and social isolation/quarantine, travel restrictions and other) and to assess their effectiveness. In particular, the SBT-COVID19 Tool permits to assess how long the lockdown measures should be maintained.

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Scenarios for the spread of COVID-19 analyzed by the TVBG-SEIR spline model

BIOMATH ◽

10.11145/j.biomath.2021.03.087 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 10 (1) ◽

pp. 2103087

Author(s):

Ognyan Kounchev ◽

Georgi Simeonov ◽

Zhana Kuncheva

Keyword(s):

Secondary Wave ◽

Web Based ◽

Policy Makers ◽

Global Evolution ◽

Travel Restrictions ◽

Containment Measures ◽

Coronavirus Infection ◽

Support Software ◽

Epidemic Wave

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GLOBAL FOOD SECURITY AMID THE GLOBAL CRISIS

EKONOMIKA I UPRAVLENIE: PROBLEMY, RESHENIYA ◽

10.36871/ek.up.p.r.2020.10.01.016 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 1 (10) ◽

pp. 134-141

Author(s):

P. M. TARANOV ◽

◽

A. S. PANASYUK ◽

Keyword(s):

Food Security ◽

Short Term ◽

Global Food Security ◽

Food Problem ◽

Supply Problem ◽

Coronavirus Infection ◽

Food Security Indicators ◽

Security Indicators ◽

Global Food

The authors assess the prospects for solving the global food problem based on an analysis of the dynamics of food security indicators at the global and regional levels. The global food problem at work refers to the growing population of a planet affected by hunger and other forms of malnutrition. The food security situation has worsened for five years - in 2015–2019, and the COVID-19 pandemic has further exacerbated the food supply problem. The prevalence of moderate to severe food insecurity has affected more than 25% of the world's population. In lowincome countries, malnutrition affects more than 58% of the population. Food security is threatened by the consequences of the spread of coronavirus infection in the short term. In the medium and long term, climate change and the crisis in the governance of the world economy are the greatest threats. Modern international economic institutions are unable to withstand the prospect of declining global food security.

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Design and Development of a Web-based Delirium Preventive Application for Long-term Care Facilities: A Methodological Study (Preprint)

10.2196/preprints.26092 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Kyoung Ja Moon ◽

Chang-Sik Son ◽

Jong-Ha Lee ◽

Mina Park

Keyword(s):

Risk Factors ◽

Long Term Care ◽

Cloud System ◽

Evidence Based ◽

Methodological Study ◽

Term Care ◽

Web Based ◽

Care Facilities ◽

Delirium Prevention

BACKGROUND Long-term care facilities demonstrate low levels of knowledge and care for patients with delirium and are often not properly equipped with an electronic medical record system, thereby hindering systematic approaches to delirium monitoring. OBJECTIVE This study aims to develop a web-based delirium preventive application (app), with an integrated predictive model, for long-term care (LTC) facilities using artificial intelligence (AI). METHODS This methodological study was conducted to develop an app and link it with the Amazon cloud system. The app was developed based on an evidence-based literature review and the validity of the AI prediction model algorithm. Participants comprised 206 persons admitted to LTC facilities. The app was developed in 5 phases. First, through a review of evidence-based literature, risk factors for predicting delirium and non-pharmaceutical contents for preventive intervention were identified. Second, the app, consisting of several screens, was designed; this involved providing basic information, predicting the onset of delirium according to risk factors, assessing delirium, and intervening for prevention. Third, based on the existing data, predictive analysis was performed, and the algorithm developed through this was calculated at the site linked to the web through the Amazon cloud system and sent back to the app. Fourth, a pilot test using the developed app was conducted with 33 patients. Fifth, the app was finalized. RESULTS We developed the Web_DeliPREVENT_4LCF for patients of LTC facilities. This app provides information on delirium, inputs risk factors, predicts and informs the degree of delirium risk, and enables delirium measurement or delirium prevention interventions to be immediately implemented with a verified tool. CONCLUSIONS This web-based application is evidence-based and offers easy mobilization and care to patients with delirium in LTC facilities. Therefore, the use of this app improves the unrecognized of delirium and predicts the degree of delirium risk, thereby helping initiatives for delirium prevention and providing interventions. This would ultimately improve patient safety and quality of care. CLINICALTRIAL none

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Solo self-employment, entrepreneurial subjectivity and the security–precarity continuum: Evidence from private tutors in the supplementary education industry

Environment and Planning A Economy and Space ◽

10.1177/0308518x211009237 ◽

2021 ◽

pp. 0308518X2110092

Author(s):

Sarah L Holloway ◽

Helena Pimlott-Wilson

Keyword(s):

Occupational Choice ◽

Entrepreneurial Activity ◽

Development Economic ◽

Long Term Outcomes ◽

Dominant Form ◽

Policy Makers ◽

Supplementary Education ◽

Self Employment ◽

Education Industry

Entrepreneurship is regarded by policy makers and politicians as an accelerant for economic development. Economic geography demonstrates that rather than stimulating entrepreneurship in general, policy makers should support specific forms of entrepreneurship that fuel wider growth. The paper's original contribution is to insist that entrepreneurship research must also explore less growth-oriented, but crucially very widespread, forms of entrepreneurial activity. The paper therefore places solo self-employment – the self-employed without employees – centre stage as an exemplar of this trend. Research is presented on private tutors who run businesses from home, offering children one-to-one tuition in the burgeoning supplementary education industry. The paper scrutinises the causes, configuration and consequences of such solo self-employment as an economically marginal, but numerically dominant, form of entrepreneurship. In so doing, it makes three conceptual advances in the exploration of heterogeneous entrepreneurship. First, in examining why individuals become self-employed, the paper moves beyond classic efforts to understand entrepreneurship through binary push/pull mechanisms in models of occupational choice. Instead, the analysis demonstrates the importance of risk in entrepreneurship and paid employment, highlighting the multiple pathways into solo self-employment as opportunities and constraints coalesce in individual's lives. Secondly, in considering how the solo self-employed think about business, the research breaks through conventional definitions of entrepreneurship to demonstrate that solo self-employment involves a distinctively entrepreneurial subjectivity and practices. Thirdly, by investigating the consequences of solo self-employment, the findings transcend dualist interpretations of self-employment as the realm of entrepreneurial wealth or economic precarity, highlighting instead a security–precarity continuum in immediate and long-term outcomes.

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Potentially Prolonged Psychological Distress from Postponed Olympic and Paralympic Games during COVID-19—Career Uncertainty in Elite Athletes

International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health ◽

10.3390/ijerph18010002 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 18 (1) ◽

pp. 2

Author(s):

Anders Håkansson ◽

Karin Moesch ◽

Caroline Jönsson ◽

Göran Kenttä

Keyword(s):

Psychological Distress ◽

Female Athletes ◽

Job Insecurity ◽

Elite Athletes ◽

Psychological Impact ◽

Sporting Events ◽

Travel Restrictions ◽

Career Uncertainty ◽

Paralympic Games

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has had a significant impact on the world of sports due to periods of home quarantine, bans against public gatherings, travel restrictions, and a large number of postponed or canceled major sporting events. The literature hitherto is sparse, but early indications display signs of psychological impact on elite athletes due to the pandemic. However, beyond acute effects from lockdown and short-term interrupted athletic seasons, the postponed and still uncertain Olympic and Paralympic Games may represent a major career insecurity to many athletes world-wide, and may lead to severe changes to everyday lives and potentially prolonged psychological distress. Given the long-term perspective of these changes, researchers and stakeholders should address mental health and long-term job insecurity in athletes, including a specific focus on those with small financial margins, such as many female athletes, parasports athletes, athletes in smaller sports, and athletes from developing countries. Implications and the need for research are discussed.

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OP48 Nursing Requirements In Long-Term Care: A Health Technology Assessment

International Journal of Technology Assessment in Health Care ◽

10.1017/s0266462319001132 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 35 (S1) ◽

pp. 11-12

Author(s):

Paula Corabian ◽

Charles Yan ◽

Susan Armijo-Olivo ◽

Bing Guo

Keyword(s):

Nursing Care ◽

Nursing Staff ◽

Real World ◽

Research Evidence ◽

Long Term Care ◽

Staff Time ◽

Term Care ◽

Policy Makers ◽

The Relationship

IntroductionThe objectives of this study were to systematically review published research on the relationship between nursing staff coverage, care hours, and quality of care (QoC) in long-term care (LTC) facilities; and to conduct a real world evidence (RWE) analysis using Alberta real world data (RWD) to inform policy makers on whether any amendments could be made to current regulations.MethodsA systematic review (SR) of research evidence published between January 2000 and May 2018 on the relationship between nursing staff coverage, care hours, and QoC in LTC facilities was conducted. Panel data regressions using available RWD from Alberta, Canada, were performed to assess associations between nursing care hours and LTC outcomes. Outcomes of interest included quality indicators related to resident outcomes, hospital admissions, emergency room visits and family satisfaction. Nursing care hours considered in SR and RWE analysis included those provided by registered nurses (RNs) and licensed practical nurses (LPNs).ResultsThe SR found inconsistent and poor quality evidence relevant to the questions of interest, indicating a great uncertainty about the association between nursing staff time and type of coverage and QoC. Although some positive indications were suggested, major weaknesses of reviewed studies limited interpretation of SR results. RWE analysis found that impact of care hours on LTC outcomes was heterogeneous, dependent on outcome measurements. There was evidence that total staff, RN, and LPN hours had positive effects on some resident outcomes and magnitude of effect differed for different nursing staff.ConclusionsNo definitive conclusion could be drawn on whether changing nursing staff time or nursing staff coverage models would affect residents’ outcomes based on the research evidence gathered in the SR. RWE analysis helped to fill a gap in the available published literature and allowed policy makers to better understand the impact of revising current regulations based on actual outcomes.

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EU Labor Market Inequalities and Sustainable Development Goals

Sustainability ◽

10.3390/su13052675 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 13 (5) ◽

pp. 2675

Author(s):

Elena Jianu ◽

Ramona Pîrvu ◽

Gheorghe Axinte ◽

Ovidiu Toma ◽

Andrei Valentin Cojocaru ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Sustainable Development ◽

Labor Market ◽

Policy Issue ◽

Policy Makers ◽

Public Policy Issue ◽

Development Goals ◽

To Come ◽

Business Practitioners ◽

The Eu

Reducing inequalities for EU citizens and promoting upward convergence is one of the priorities on the agenda of the European Commission and, certainly, inequality will be a very important public policy issue for years to come. Through this research we aim to investigate EU labor market inequalities, reflected by the specific indicators proposed for Goal 8 assumed by the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, based on cluster analysis for all the 27 Member States. The research results showed encouraging results from the perspective of convergence in the EU labor market, but also revealed a number of analyzed variable effects that manifested regional inequalities that were generated in the medium and long term. Based on the observations made, we want to provide information for policy-makers, business practitioners, and academics so as to constitute solid ground for identifying good practices and proposing to implement policies aimed at reducing existing inequalities and supporting sustainable development.

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Investigating Dynamics of COVID-19 Spread and Containment with Agent-Based Modeling

Applied Sciences ◽

10.3390/app11125367 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 11 (12) ◽

pp. 5367

Author(s):

Amirarsalan Rajabi ◽

Alexander V. Mantzaris ◽

Ece C. Mutlu ◽

Ozlem O. Garibay

Keyword(s):

Disease Model ◽

Agent Based Modeling ◽

Contact Tracing ◽

Test Bed ◽

Policy Makers ◽

Agent Based ◽

Contact Behavior ◽

Epidemic Curve ◽

Behavioral Adaptations ◽

Travel Restrictions

Governments, policy makers, and officials around the globe are working to mitigate the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic by making decisions that strive to save the most lives and impose the least economic costs. Making these decisions require comprehensive understanding of the dynamics by which the disease spreads. In traditional epidemiological models, individuals do not adapt their contact behavior during an epidemic, yet adaptive behavior is well documented (i.e., fear-induced social distancing). In this work we revisit Epstein’s “coupled contagion dynamics of fear and disease” model in order to extend and adapt it to explore fear-driven behavioral adaptations and their impact on efforts to combat the COVID-19 pandemic. The inclusion of contact behavior adaptation endows the resulting model with a rich dynamics that under certain conditions reproduce endogenously multiple waves of infection. We show that the model provides an appropriate test bed for different containment strategies such as: testing with contact tracing and travel restrictions. The results show that while both strategies could result in flattening the epidemic curve and a significant reduction of the maximum number of infected individuals; testing should be applied along with tracing previous contacts of the tested individuals to be effective. The results show how the curve is flattened with testing partnered with contact tracing, and the imposition of travel restrictions.

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Shared socioeconomic pathways for climate change research in Finland: co-developing extended SSP narratives for agriculture

Regional Environmental Change ◽

10.1007/s10113-020-01734-2 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 21 (1) ◽

Author(s):

Heikki S. Lehtonen ◽

Jyrki Aakkula ◽

Stefan Fronzek ◽

Janne Helin ◽

Mikael Hildén ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

National Level ◽

Global Scale ◽

Change Scenario ◽

Policy Makers ◽

Climate Change Research ◽

Food And Agriculture ◽

Agriculture And Food ◽

Farm Subsidies

AbstractShared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs), developed at global scale, comprise narrative descriptions and quantifications of future world developments that are intended for climate change scenario analysis. However, their extension to national and regional scales can be challenging. Here, we present SSP narratives co-developed with stakeholders for the agriculture and food sector in Finland. These are derived from intensive discussions at a workshop attended by approximately 39 participants offering a range of sectoral perspectives. Using general background descriptions of the SSPs for Europe, facilitated discussions were held in parallel for each of four SSPs reflecting very different contexts for the development of the sector up to 2050 and beyond. Discussions focused on five themes from the perspectives of consumers, producers and policy-makers, included a joint final session and allowed for post-workshop feedback. Results reflect careful sector-based, national-level interpretations of the global SSPs from which we have constructed consensus narratives. Our results also show important critical remarks and minority viewpoints. Interesting features of the Finnish narratives compared to the global SSP narratives include greater emphasis on environmental quality; significant land abandonment in SSPs with reduced livestock production and increased plant-based diets; continued need for some farm subsidies across all SSPs and opportunities for diversifying domestic production under scenarios of restricted trade. Our results can contribute to the development of more detailed national long-term scenarios for food and agriculture that are both relevant for local stakeholders and researchers as well as being consistent with global scenarios being applied internationally.

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Impact of the Coronavirus Pandemic Lockdown on Atmospheric Nanoparticle Concentrations in Two Sites of Southern Italy

Atmosphere ◽

10.3390/atmos12030352 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 12 (3) ◽

pp. 352

Author(s):

Adelaide Dinoi ◽

Daniel Gulli ◽

Ivano Ammoscato ◽

Claudia R. Calidonna ◽

Daniele Contini

Keyword(s):

Particle Number ◽

Southern Italy ◽

Time Intervals ◽

Atmospheric Particle ◽

Total Particle Number ◽

Total Particle ◽

Consequent Reduction ◽

Containment Measures ◽

Coronavirus Infection ◽

The Impact

During the new coronavirus infection outbreak, the application of strict containment measures entailed a decrease in most human activities, with the consequent reduction of anthropogenic emissions into the atmosphere. In this study, the impact of lockdown on atmospheric particle number concentrations and size distributions is investigated in two different sites of Southern Italy: Lecce and Lamezia Terme, regional stations of the GAW/ACTRIS networks. The effects of restrictions are quantified by comparing submicron particle concentrations, in the size range from 10 nm to 800 nm, measured during the lockdown period and in the same period of previous years, from 2015 to 2019, considering three time intervals: prelockdown, lockdown and postlockdown. Different percentage reductions in total particle number concentrations are observed, −19% and −23% in Lecce and −7% and −4% in Lamezia Terme during lockdown and postlockdown, respectively, with several variations in each subclass of particles. From the comparison, no significant variations of meteorological factors are observed except a reduction of rainfall in 2020, which might explain the higher levels of particle concentrations measured during prelockdown at both stations. In general, the results demonstrate an improvement of air quality, more conspicuous in Lecce than in Lamezia Terme, during the lockdown, with a differed reduction in the concentration of submicronic particles that depends on the different types of sources, their distance from observational sites and local meteorology.

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