Development and validation of a simple and robust model to predict 30-day mortality in patients with Clostridioides difficile-associated enterocolitis

ObjectiveClostridioides difficile infection (CDI) is a common healthcare-associated infection and associated with high morbidity and mortality. As current guidelines recommend treatment stratified for disease severity, this study aimed to identify predictors of 30-day mortality in order to develop a robust prediction model.DesignThis was a retrospective analysis of 207 inpatients with CDI who were treated at the Jena University Hospital between September 2011 and December 2015. In a training cohort (n=127), predictors of 30-day mortality were identified by receiver operating characteristics analysis and logistic regression. The derived model was validated in an independent cohort of 80 inpatients with CDI.ResultsWithin 30 days, 35 (28%) patients in the training cohort died from any cause. C-reactive protein (CRP) of ≥121 mg/L (OR 3.80; 95% CI 1.64 to 7.80; p=0.003) and lower systolic blood pressure of ≤104 mm Hg (OR 3.73; 95% CI 1.63 to 8.53; p=0.002) at diagnosis as well as development of renal impairment (serum creatinine >1.5×baseline; OR 5.61; 95% CI 1.94 to 16.26; p=0.035) within the first 6 days were associated with 30-day mortality in univariate analysis. The use of these parameters enabled correct mortality prediction in 73% of cases on the day of diagnosis and in 76% at day 6. In the validation cohort, 30-day mortality was 18/80 (23%). Our model enabled a 73.7% correct prediction concerning 30-day mortality on day 6 after diagnosis of CDI.ConclusionHypotension and CRP elevation on the day of diagnosis as well as occurrence of kidney dysfunction during the first 6 days are suitable parameters to predict 30-day mortality in patients with CDI who need to be treated in the hospital.

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Clostridioides difficile Infection among Cirrhotic Patients with Variceal Bleeding

Antibiotics ◽

10.3390/antibiotics10060731 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 10 (6) ◽

pp. 731

Author(s):

Mirela Nicoleta Voicu ◽

Florica Popescu ◽

Dan Nicolae Florescu ◽

Ion Rogoveanu ◽

Adina Turcu-Stiolica ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Variceal Bleeding ◽

Health Programs ◽

High Morbidity ◽

Operating Characteristics ◽

Index Child ◽

Public Health Programs ◽

Clostridioides Difficile ◽

Receiver Operating Characteristics Curve ◽

Clostridioides Difficile Infection ◽

Cirrhotic Patients

Clostridioides difficile infection (CDI) stands as the leading cause of nosocomial infection with high morbidity and mortality rates, causing a major burden on the healthcare system. Driven by antibiotics, it usually affects older patients with chronic disease or immunosuppressed or oncologic management. Variceal bleeding secondary to cirrhosis requires antibiotics to prevent bacterial translocation, and thus patients become susceptible to CDI. We aimed to investigate the risk factors for CDI in cirrhotic patients with variceal bleeding following ceftriaxone and the mortality risk in this patient’s population. We retrospectively screened 367 cirrhotic patients with variceal bleeding, from which 25 patients were confirmed with CDI, from 1 January 2017 to 31 December 2019. We found MELD to be the only multivariate predictor for mortality (odds ratio, OR = 1.281, 95% confidence interval, CI: 0.098–1.643, p = 0.042). A model of four predictors (age, days of admission, Charlson index, Child–Pugh score) was generated (area under the receiver operating characteristics curve, AUC = 0.840, 95% CI: 0.758–0.921, p < 0.0001) to assess the risk of CDI exposure. Determining the probability of getting CDI for cirrhotic patients with variceal bleeding could be a tool for doctors in taking decisions, which could be integrated in sustainable public health programs.

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Clostridium difficile Infection: An Epidemiology Update

Clinics in Colon and Rectal Surgery ◽

10.1055/s-0040-1701229 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 33 (02) ◽

pp. 049-057 ◽

Cited By ~ 5

Author(s):

Ana C. De Roo ◽

Scott E. Regenbogen

Keyword(s):

Risk Factors ◽

Antibiotic Use ◽

Recurrence Risk ◽

Epidemiologic Studies ◽

High Morbidity ◽

Healthcare Associated Infection ◽

Clostridioides Difficile ◽

Increased Risk ◽

Hospitalized Older Adults ◽

Healthcare Associated

Abstract Clostridium (reclassified as “Clostridioides”) difficile infection (CDI) is a healthcare-associated infection and significant source of potentially preventable morbidity, recurrence, and death, particularly among hospitalized older adults. Additional risk factors include antibiotic use and severe underlying illness. The increasing prevalence of community-associated CDI is gaining recognition as a novel source of morbidity in previously healthy patients. Even after recovery from initial infection, patients remain at risk for recurrence or reinfection with a new strain. Some pharmaco-epidemiologic studies have suggested an increased risk associated with proton pump inhibitors and protective effect from statins, but these findings have not been uniformly reproduced in all studies. Certain ribotypes of C. difficile, including the BI/NAP1/027, 106, and 018, are associated with increased antibiotic resistance and potential for higher morbidity and mortality. CDI remains a high-morbidity healthcare-associated infection, and better understanding of ribotypes and medication risk factors could help to target treatment, particularly for patients with high recurrence risk.

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Low-Level Elevations of Procalcitonin Are Associated with Increased Mortality in Acute Heart Failure Patients, Independent of Concomitant Infection

Life ◽

10.3390/life11121429 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 11 (12) ◽

pp. 1429

Author(s):

Fabrice F. Darche ◽

Moritz Biener ◽

Matthias Müller-Hennessen ◽

Rasmus Rivinius ◽

Kiril M. Stoyanov ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Heart Failure ◽

Acute Heart Failure ◽

Mortality Prediction ◽

University Hospital ◽

Operating Characteristics ◽

Cutoff Value ◽

Low Level ◽

Kaplan Meier ◽

Receiver Operating Characteristics Curve

We aimed to evaluate the prognostic value of procalcitonin (PCT) in acute heart failure (AHF) patients, especially in those without underlying infection. We enrolled patients presenting with acute dyspnea to the emergency department (ED) of Heidelberg University Hospital and studied the prognostic role of PCT on all-cause death. Of 312 patients, AHF was diagnosed in 139 patients. Of these, 125 patients had AHF without signs of infection, and 14 had AHF complicated by respiratory or other infection. The optimal prognostic PCT cutoff value for mortality prediction was calculated by a receiver operating characteristics curve. In patients with AHF, the prognostic PCT cutoff value was 0.08 ng/mL. The Kaplan–Meier survival analysis showed that AHF patients with PCT values > 0.08 ng/mL had a higher all-cause mortality at 120 days than those with PCT values ≤ 0.08 ng/mL (log-rank p = 0.0123). Similar results could be obtained after subdivision into AHF patients with and without signs of overt infection. In both cases, mortality was higher in patients with PCT levels above the prognostic PCT cutoff than in those with values ranging below this threshold. Moreover, we show that the prognostic PCT cutoff values for mortality prediction ranged below the established PCT cutoff for the guidance of antibiotic therapy. In conclusion, the data of our study revealed that low-level elevations of PCT were associated with an increased mortality in patients with AHF, irrespective of concomitant respiratory or other infection. PCT should thus be further used as a marker in the risk stratification of AHF.

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The Quick Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (qSOFA) Score is a Poor Mortality Predictor in Patients with Complicated Intra-abdominal Infections

Open Access Macedonian Journal of Medical Sciences ◽

10.3889/oamjms.2020.3869 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 8 (B) ◽

pp. 221-225

Author(s):

Evgeni Dimitrov ◽

Georgi Minkov ◽

Emil Enchev ◽

Krasimira Halacheva ◽

Yovcho Yovtchev

Keyword(s):

Sequential Organ Failure Assessment ◽

Organ Failure ◽

University Hospital ◽

High Morbidity ◽

Operating Characteristics ◽

Prognostic Performance ◽

Prognostic Accuracy ◽

Failure Assessment ◽

Abdominal Infections ◽

Qsofa Score

BACKGROUND: Despite the evolution in surgical treatment and antimicrobial therapy in the last years the complicated intra-abdominal infections (cIAIs) are still associated with high morbidity and mortality. Different scoring systems are already available for early prognostic evaluation and yet none has been widely accepted. AIM: Our aim was to evaluate the prognostic accuracy of quick sequential organ failure assessment (qSOFA), one of the most recent scores, in patients with cIAIs. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We studied retrospectively 110 patients with cIAIs admitted to the Department of Surgical Diseases (DSD) at University Hospital “Prof. Dr. Stoyan Kirkovich” Stara Zagora from January 2017 to July 2019. Area under receiver operating characteristics (AUROC) curves of systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS), qSOFA, and Mannheim Peritonitis Index (MPI) were analyzed and a comparison of ROC curves was performed to explore their prognostic performance. RESULTS: Twenty-five (22.7%) patients died during hospitalization. qSOFA score showed poor prognostic accuracy (AUROC = 0.698, 95% CI = 0.566–0.829), worse than MPI score (AUROC = 0.698 vs. 0.844), but better than SIRS (AUROC = 0.698 vs. 0.583). The qSOFA score ≥2 points was observed with lack of sensitivity (32.0%) as outcome predictor. ROC curve analysis showed prognostic inferiority of qSOFA compared to MPI (difference between areas = 0.146, p = 0.0232). CONCLUSION: In patients with cIAIs, quick-SOFA score was observed with poor prognostic performance.

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Targeted Assessment for Prevention: A Statewide Collaborative

Infection Control and Hospital Epidemiology ◽

10.1017/ice.2020.1047 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 41 (S1) ◽

pp. s401-s401

Author(s):

Cindy Hou ◽

Shannon Davila ◽

Mary Miller ◽

Ashlee Hiester ◽

Katherine Hosmer ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Quality Improvement ◽

Infection Prevention ◽

Local Level ◽

Central Line ◽

Interdisciplinary Teams ◽

System Level ◽

Healthcare Associated Infection ◽

Hospital System ◽

Healthcare Facilities ◽

Clostridioides Difficile

Background: Infection preventionists (IPs) are the backbone of the quality and safety matrix of their organizations. Tools to help locate potential gaps can provide unique viewpoints from frontline staff. The CDC provides a Targeted Assessment for Prevention (TAP) strategy that identifies vulnerabilities in the prevention of healthcare-associated infection (HAIs). Methods: A statewide quality improvement organization, partnering with the CDC TAP team, administered TAP facility assessments for catheter-associated urinary tract infection (CAUTI), central-line–associated bloodstream infection (CLABSI), and Clostridioides difficile infection (CDI) to a collaborative of 15 acute-care and 2 long-term acute hospitals. More than 800 respondents filled out surveys based on their individualized perceptions of infection prevention practices. Results: The survey results yielded the following lagging indicators: lack of awareness of nursing and physician champions, need for competency-based training of clinical equipment, and feedback on device utilization. At the hospital system level, one improvement team focused on CDI, uncovered leading and lagging areas in general infrastructure, antibiotic stewardship, early detection and appropriate testing, contact precautions, and environmental cleaning. To culminate the TAP collaborative, the cohort of organizations, supported by interdisciplinary teams, participated in a full-day TAP workshop in which they reviewed detailed analyses of their HAI data and assessment results, shared best practices for infection prevention and planned for specific improvement projects using the plan-do-study-act model. Conclusions: Results of a statewide analysis of HAI prevention data and opportunities at a local level were reviewed. The TAP strategy can be used to target opportunities for improvement, to assess gaps in practice, and to develop and implement interventions for improving outcomes. Healthcare facilities and quality improvement organizations can drive infection prevention actions.Funding: NoneDisclosures: None

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832. Assessment of Risk Factors Associated with Wide-resistance Gram-negative Bacteria Infections

Open Forum Infectious Diseases ◽

10.1093/ofid/ofaa439.1021 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 7 (Supplement_1) ◽

pp. S457-S457

Author(s):

Henry Pablo Lopes Campos e Reis ◽

Ana Beatriz Ferreira Rodrigues ◽

Julio César Castro Silva ◽

Lia Pinheiro de Lima ◽

Talita Lima Quinaher ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Risk Factors ◽

Mechanical Ventilation ◽

Univariate Analysis ◽

Multidrug Resistant ◽

University Hospital ◽

Gram Negative Bacteria ◽

Multiresistant Pathogens ◽

Gram Negative ◽

Contact Isolation ◽

Bladder Catheter

Abstract Background Enterobacteria and multidrug-resistant non-fermenting Gram-negative bacilli present a challenge in the management of invasive infections, leading to mortality rates due to their limited therapeutic arsenal. The objective of this work was to analyze risk factors that may be associated with these infections, for a better situational mapping and assertive decision-making in a university hospital in Brazil. Methods The study was conducted between January and September 2019, with 167 patients in contact isolation at a university hospital in Brazil. Potential outcome-related variables for wide-resistance Gram-negative bacteria (BGN) infections were evaluated. Risk factors were identified from univariate statistical analysis using Fisher’s test. Results 51 (30.5%) out of 167 patients in contact isolation evolved with wide-resistance BGN infection. Risk factors in univariate analysis were age, hospital unit and previous use of invasive devices. Patients aged up to 59 years were more likely to progress to infection than those aged over 60 years (p 0.0274, OR 2.2, 95% CI 1.1-4.5). Those admitted to the oncohematology (p < 0.001, OR 32.5, Cl 9.1-116.3) and intensive care unit (p < 0.001, OR 28.0, Cl 3.5-225.9) units were more likely to develop this type of infection. The least likely were those admitted to a kidney transplant unit (p 0.0034, OR 15.33, Cl 1.8-131.0). Prior use of mechanical ventilation (p 0.0058, OR 12.2, Cl 2.0-76.1) and delayed bladder catheter (p 0.0266, OR 5.0, Cl 1.2-20.1) in patients with respiratory and urinary tract infection, respectively, were also reported as risk factors related to these infections. The gender of the patients was not significant for the study. Conclusion This study determined that variables such as age, hospitalization unit, use of mechanical ventilation and delayed bladder catheter could be considered important risk factors in triggering the infectious process by wide-resistant gram-negative bacteria. Thus, the analysis of these factors becomes a great foundation to prevent the development of multiresistant pathogens through prevention strategies, prophylaxis management and more targeted empirical therapies. Disclosures All Authors: No reported disclosures

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Performance of the Surprise Question Compared to Prediction Models in Hemodialysis Patients: A Prospective Study

American Journal of Nephrology ◽

10.1159/000481920 ◽

2017 ◽

Vol 46 (5) ◽

pp. 390-396 ◽

Cited By ~ 4

Author(s):

Rakesh Malhotra ◽

Xia Tao ◽

Yuedong Wang ◽

Yuqi Chen ◽

Rebecca H. Apruzzese ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Linear Models ◽

Prediction Models ◽

Clinical Laboratory ◽

Mortality Prediction ◽

Operating Characteristics ◽

Dialysis Treatment ◽

Mortality Probability ◽

A Prospective Study ◽

Surprise Question

Background: The surprise question (SQ) (“Would you be surprised if this patient were still alive in 6 or 12 months?”) is used as a mortality prognostication tool in hemodialysis (HD) patients. We compared the performance of the SQ with that of prediction models (PMs) for 6- and 12-month mortality prediction. Methods: Demographic, clinical, laboratory, and dialysis treatment indicators were used to model 6- and 12-month mortality probability in a HD patients training cohort (n = 6,633) using generalized linear models (GLMs). A total of 10 nephrologists from 5 HD clinics responded to the SQ in 215 patients followed prospectively for 12 months. The performance of PM was evaluated in the validation (n = 6,634) and SQ cohorts (n = 215) using the areas under receiver operating characteristics curves. We compared sensitivities and specificities of PM and SQ. Results: The PM and SQ cohorts comprised 13,267 (mean age 61 years, 55% men, 54% whites) and 215 (mean age 62 years, 59% men, 50% whites) patients, respectively. During the 12-month follow-up, 1,313 patients died in the prediction model cohort and 22 in the SQ cohort. For 6-month mortality prediction, the GLM had areas under the curve of 0.77 in the validation cohort and 0.77 in the SQ cohort. As for 12-month mortality, areas under the curve were 0.77 and 0.80 in the validation and SQ cohorts, respectively. The 6- and 12-month PMs had sensitivities of 0.62 (95% CI 0.35–0.88) and 0.75 (95% CI 0.56–0.94), respectively. The 6- and 12-month SQ sensitivities were 0.23 (95% CI 0.002–0.46) and 0.35 (95% CI 0.14–0.56), respectively. Conclusion: PMs exhibit superior sensitivity compared to the SQ for mortality prognostication in HD patients.

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Healthcare-Associated Infection in Italy Annual Point-Prevalence Surveys, 2002–2004

Infection Control and Hospital Epidemiology ◽

10.1086/597596 ◽

2009 ◽

Vol 30 (7) ◽

pp. 659-665 ◽

Cited By ~ 21

Author(s):

Simone Lanini ◽

William R. Jarvis ◽

Emanuele Nicastri ◽

Gaetano Privitera ◽

Giovanni Gesu ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Intensive Care ◽

Intensive Care Units ◽

Univariate Analysis ◽

National Health System ◽

Bloodstream Infections ◽

Surgical Site Infections ◽

Point Prevalence ◽

Healthcare Associated Infection ◽

Tract Infections ◽

Healthcare Associated

Objective.Healthcare-associated infections (HAIs) are an important cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide. During the period from 2002 through 2004, a group of Italian hospitals was recruited to conduct HAI point-prevalence surveys.Design.Three point-prevalence surveys.Methods.A total of 9,609 patients were surveyed.Results.The overall frequency of HAI was 6.7% (645 infections among the 9,609 surveyed patients). The most frequent HAIs were lower respiratory tract infections, which accounted for 35.8% (231 of 645 HAIs) of all HAIs, followed by urinary tract infections (152 [23.6%] of 645 HAIs), bloodstream infections (90 [14.0%] of 645 HAIs), and surgical site infections (79 [12.2%] of 645 HAIs). In both multivariate and univariate analysis, invasive procedures, duration of stay, chemotherapy, trauma, coma, and the location of the hospital were all factors statistically significantly associated with the occurrence of an HAL Enterobacteriaceae were the most common isolates recovered in medical and surgical wards, whereas gram-negative aerobic bacilli were the most common isolates recovered in intensive care units. Approximately one-half of all of the patients surveyed were receiving antibiotics at the time of our study; the most used antibiotic classes were fluoroquinolones in medical wards, cephalosporins in surgical wards, and penicillins and glycopeptides in intensive care units.Conclusion.Our study emphasizes the need for implementing further HAI surveillance to provide the National Health System with proper tools to prevent and manage infection in hospitalized patients.

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The Effect of the Change in Lymph Flow Following Gastrectomy for Initial Disease on the Prognosis of Remnant Gastric Cancer

10.21203/rs.3.rs-941649/v1 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Yoshihiko Kakiuchi ◽

Satoru Kikuchi ◽

Shinji Kuroda ◽

Masahiko Nishizaki ◽

Shunsuke Kagawa ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Gastric Cancer ◽

Lymph Node ◽

Poor Prognosis ◽

Malignant Disease ◽

Univariate Analysis ◽

Lymph Flow ◽

University Hospital ◽

Gastric Disease ◽

Remnant Gastric Cancer ◽

Initial Surgery

Abstract Background: Remnant gastric cancer (RGC) has been increasing for various reasons such as longer life span, medical progress, and others. It generally has a poor prognosis, and its mechanism of occurrence is unknown. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the clinicopathological features of and clarify the prognostic factors of RGC.Methods: Between January 2002 and January 2017, 39 patients with RGC following distal gastrectomy underwent curative surgical resection at the Okayama University Hospital; their medical records and immunohistochemically stained extracted specimens were used for retrospective analysis. Results: On univariate analysis, initial gastric disease, pathological lymph node metastasis, and pathological stage were the significant factors associated with a poor overall survival (OS) (p=0.0139, 0.0061, and 0.0158, respectively). Multivariate analysis of these 3 factors showed that only initial gastric disease caused by malignant disease was an independent factor associated with a poor prognosis (p=0.0141, odds ratio [OR]:4.151, 95% confidence interval [CI]:1.333-12.93). In addition, the presence of a left gastric artery (LGA), and tumor-infiltrating CD8+ T cell expression were higher in the benign disease group than in the malignant group (p<0.0001 and p=0.0485, respectively).Conclusion: The lymph flow change caused by lymph node dissection for malignant disease in initial surgery might have an effect on the suppression of tumor immunity and the poor prognosis of RGC.

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The Value of Oxygenation Saturation Index in Predicting the Outcomes of Patients with Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome

Journal of Clinical Medicine ◽

10.3390/jcm7080205 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 7 (8) ◽

pp. 205 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Wan-Ling Chen ◽

Wei-Ting Lin ◽

Shu-Chen Kung ◽

Chih-Cheng Lai ◽

Chien-Ming Chao

Keyword(s):

Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome ◽

Respiratory Distress Syndrome ◽

Respiratory Distress ◽

Distress Syndrome ◽

Saturation Index ◽

Predictive Performance ◽

Mortality Prediction ◽

Apache Ii Score ◽

Operating Characteristics ◽

Adult Intensive Care Unit

This study aims to investigate the association between oxygenation saturation index (OSI) and the outcome of acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) patients, and assess the predictive performance of OSI for ARDS patients’ mortality. This study was conducted at one regional hospital with 66 adult intensive care unit (ICU) beds. All patients with ARDS were identified between November 1 2016 and May 31 2018, and their clinical information was retrospectively collected. The lowest PaO2/FiO2 ratio and SpO2/FiO2 ratio and highest mean airway pressure (MAP) were recorded on the first day of ARDS; and oxygen index (OI) and OSI were calculated as (FiO2 × MAP × 100)/PaO2, and (FiO2 × MAP × 100) /SpO2 accordingly. During the study period, a total of 101 patients with ARDS were enrolled, and their mean age was 69.2 years. The overall in-ICU and in-hospital mortality rate was 57.4% and 61.4%, respectively. The patients with in-ICU mortality had higher APACHE II score than the survivors (31.6 ± 9.8 vs. 23.0 ± 9.1, p < 0.001). In addition, mortalities had lower SpO2, and SpO2/FiO2 ratios than the survivors (both p < 0.05). In contrast, survivors had lower OI, and OSI than the mortalities (both p = 0.008). Both OSI (area under curve (AUC) = 0.656, p = 0.008) and OI (AUC = 0.654, p = 0.008) had good predictive performance of mortality among ARDS patients using receiver-operating characteristics (ROC) curves analysis. In addition, the AUC of SpO2/FiO2 (AUC = 0.616, p = 0.046) had better performance for mortality prediction than PaO2/FiO2 (AUC = 0.603, p = 0.08). The patients with OSI greater than 12 had a higher risk of mortality than OSI < 12 (adjusted OR, 5.22, 95% CI, 1.31–20.76, p = 0.019). In contrast, OI, PaO2/FiO2, and SpO2/FiO2 were not found to be significantly associated with increased mortality. OSI is significantly associated with the increased mortality of ARDS patients and can also be a good outcome predictor.

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