Equipment remaining useful life prediction oriented symbiotic simulation driven by real-time degradation data

2018 ◽  
Vol 09 (02) ◽  
pp. 1850009 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chenglong Ge ◽  
Yuanchang Zhu ◽  
Yanqiang Di
Keyword(s):  
Simulation Model ◽  
Simulation Method ◽  
Performance Degradation ◽  
Remaining Useful Life ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Observation Data ◽  
Degradation Data ◽  
Adaptive Prediction ◽  
Useful Life ◽  
Self Adaptive

As an emerging simulation technology in the field of system modeling and simulation, the equipment symbiotic simulation has become research emphasis. In the field of equipment maintenance support, the outstanding problem of equipment remaining useful life (RUL) prediction is analyzed, i.e., the stable model parameters without self-evolution ability, which has become the primary factor that hinders self-adaptive prediction of equipment RUL. Combined with parallel systems theory, the equipment RUL prediction oriented symbiotic simulation framework is proposed on the basis of modeling analysis and Wiener state space model (SSM) is taken as the basic simulation model in the framework. Driven by the dynamic injected equipment degradation observation data, the model parameters are updated online by using expectation maximum (EM) algorithm and the data assimilation between simulation outputs and observation data is executed by using Kalman filter, so as to realize dynamic evolution of the simulation model. The simulation model evolution which makes the simulation outputs close to equipment real degradation state provides high fidelity model and data for predicting equipment RUL accurately. The framework is verified by the performance degradation data of a bearing. The simulation results show that the symbiotic simulation method can accurately simulate the equipment performance degradation process and the self-adaptive prediction of equipment RUL is realized on the basis of improving prediction accuracy, proving the feasibility and effectiveness of symbiotic simulation method.

scholarly journals Remaining Useful Life Prediction of Cutting Tools Using an Inverse Gaussian Process Model

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (11) ◽  
pp. 5011
Author(s):  
Yuanxing Huang ◽  
Zhiyuan Lu ◽  
Wei Dai ◽  
Weifang Zhang ◽  
Bin Wang
Keyword(s):  
Surface Roughness ◽  
Failure Criterion ◽  
Cutting Tool ◽  
Cutting Tools ◽  
Remaining Useful Life ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Inverse Gaussian ◽  
Wear Process ◽  
Useful Life ◽  
Dynamic Wear

In manufacturing, cutting tools gradually wear out during the cutting process and decrease in cutting precision. A cutting tool has to be replaced if its degradation exceeds a certain threshold, which is determined by the required cutting precision. To effectively schedule production and maintenance actions, it is vital to model the wear process of cutting tools and predict their remaining useful life (RUL). However, it is difficult to determine the RUL of cutting tools with cutting precision as a failure criterion, as cutting precision is not directly measurable. This paper proposed a RUL prediction method for a cutting tool, developed based on a degradation model, with the roughness of the cutting surface as a failure criterion. The surface roughness was linked to the wearing process of a cutting tool through a random threshold, and accounts for the impact of the dynamic working environment and variable materials of working pieces. The wear process is modeled using a random-effects inverse Gaussian (IG) process. The degradation rate is assumed to be unit-specific, considering the dynamic wear mechanism and a heterogeneous population. To adaptively update the model parameters for online RUL prediction, an expectation–maximization (EM) algorithm has been developed. The proposed method is illustrated using an example study. The experiments were performed on specimens of 7109 aluminum alloy by milling in the normalized state. The results reveal that the proposed method effectively evaluates the RUL of cutting tools according to the specified surface roughness, therefore improving cutting quality and efficiency.

scholarly journals Deep learning-based anomaly-onset aware remaining useful life estimation of bearings

2021 ◽  
Vol 7 ◽  
pp. e795
Author(s):  
Pooja Vinayak Kamat ◽  
Rekha Sugandhi ◽  
Satish Kumar
Keyword(s):  
Deep Learning ◽  
Anomaly Detection ◽  
Short Term Memory ◽  
Rotating Machinery ◽  
Remaining Useful Life ◽  
Operating Conditions ◽  
Learning Models ◽  
Vibration Data ◽  
Degradation Data ◽  
Useful Life

Remaining Useful Life (RUL) estimation of rotating machinery based on their degradation data is vital for machine supervisors. Deep learning models are effective and popular methods for forecasting when rotating machinery such as bearings may malfunction and ultimately break down. During healthy functioning of the machinery, however, RUL is ill-defined. To address this issue, this study recommends using anomaly monitoring during both RUL estimator training and operation. Essential time-domain data is extracted from the raw bearing vibration data, and deep learning models are used to detect the onset of the anomaly. This further acts as a trigger for data-driven RUL estimation. The study employs an unsupervised clustering approach for anomaly trend analysis and a semi-supervised method for anomaly detection and RUL estimation. The novel combined deep learning-based anomaly-onset aware RUL estimation framework showed enhanced results on the benchmarked PRONOSTIA bearings dataset under non-varying operating conditions. The framework consisting of Autoencoder and Long Short Term Memory variants achieved an accuracy of over 90% in anomaly detection and RUL prediction. In the future, the framework can be deployed under varying operational situations using the transfer learning approach.

scholarly journals Aircraft Engines Remaining Useful Life Prediction with an Improved Online Sequential Extreme Learning Machine

2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (3) ◽  
pp. 1062 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tarek Berghout ◽  
Leïla-Hayet Mouss ◽  
Ouahab Kadri ◽  
Lotfi Saïdi ◽  
Mohamed Benbouzid
Keyword(s):  
Extreme Learning Machine ◽  
Life Prediction ◽  
Remaining Useful Life ◽  
Data Driven ◽  
Selection Strategy ◽  
Mapping Technique ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Aircraft Engines ◽  
Useful Life ◽  
Learning Machine

The efficient data investigation for fast and accurate remaining useful life prediction of aircraft engines can be considered as a very important task for maintenance operations. In this context, the key issue is how an appropriate investigation can be conducted for the extraction of important information from data-driven sequences in high dimensional space in order to guarantee a reliable conclusion. In this paper, a new data-driven learning scheme based on an online sequential extreme learning machine algorithm is proposed for remaining useful life prediction. Firstly, a new feature mapping technique based on stacked autoencoders is proposed to enhance features representations through an accurate reconstruction. In addition, to attempt into addressing dynamic programming based on environmental feedback, a new dynamic forgetting function based on the temporal difference of recursive learning is introduced to enhance dynamic tracking ability of newly coming data. Moreover, a new updated selection strategy was developed in order to discard the unwanted data sequences and to ensure the convergence of the training model parameters to their appropriate values. The proposed approach is validated on the C-MAPSS dataset where experimental results confirm that it yields satisfactory accuracy and efficiency of the prediction model compared to other existing methods.

scholarly journals Sequential Network with Residual Neural Network for Rotatory Machine Remaining Useful Life Prediction Using Deep Transfer Learning

2020 ◽  
Vol 2020 ◽  
pp. 1-16
Author(s):  
Hao Zhang ◽  
Qiang Zhang ◽  
Siyu Shao ◽  
Tianlin Niu ◽  
Xinyu Yang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Deep Learning ◽  
Transfer Learning ◽  
Life Prediction ◽  
Feature Learning ◽  
High Accuracy ◽  
Remaining Useful Life ◽  
Learning Ability ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Deep Model ◽  
Useful Life

Deep learning has a strong feature learning ability, which has proved its effectiveness in fault prediction and remaining useful life prediction of rotatory machine. However, training a deep network from scratch requires a large amount of training data and is time-consuming. In the practical model training process, it is difficult for the deep model to converge when the parameter initialization is inappropriate, which results in poor prediction performance. In this paper, a novel deep learning framework is proposed to predict the remaining useful life of rotatory machine with high accuracy. Firstly, model parameters and feature learning ability of the pretrained model are transferred to the new network by means of transfer learning to achieve reasonable initialization. Then, the specific sensor signals are converted to RGB image as the specific task data to fine-tune the parameters of the high-level network structure. The features extracted from the pretrained network are the input into the Bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory to obtain the RUL prediction results. The ability of LSTM to model sequence signals and the dynamic learning ability of bidirectional propagation to time information contribute to accurate RUL prediction. Finally, the deep model proposed in this paper is tested on the sensor signal dataset of bearing and gearbox. The high accuracy prediction results show the superiority of the transfer learning-based sequential network in RUL prediction.

scholarly journals Centralized Maintenance Time Prediction Algorithm for Freight Train Wheels Based on Remaining Useful Life Prediction

2020 ◽  
Vol 2020 ◽  
pp. 1-12 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hongmei Shi ◽  
Jinsong Yang ◽  
Jin Si
Keyword(s):  
Wiener Process ◽  
Process Model ◽  
Prediction Method ◽  
Remaining Useful Life ◽  
Monitoring Data ◽  
Prediction Algorithm ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Freight Train ◽  
Fixed Group ◽  
Useful Life

Many freight trains for special lines have in common the characteristics of a fixed group. Centralized Condition-Based Maintenance (CCBM) of key components, on the same freight train, can reduce maintenance costs and enhance transportation efficiency. To this end, an optimization algorithm based on the nonlinear Wiener process is proposed, for the prediction of the train wheels Remaining Useful Life (RUL) and the centralized maintenance timing. First, Hodrick–Prescott (HP) filtering algorithm is employed to process the raw monitoring data of wheel tread wear, extracting its trend components. Then, a nonlinear Wiener process model is constructed. Model parameters are calculated with a maximum likelihood estimation and the general deterioration parameters of wheel tread wear are obtained. Then, the updating algorithm for the drift coefficient is deduced using Bayesian formula. The online updating of the model is realized, based on individual wheel monitoring data, while a probability density function of individual wheel RUL is obtained. A prediction method of RUL for centralized maintenance is proposed, based on two set thresholds: “maintenance limit” and “the ratio of limit-arriving.” Meanwhile, a CCBM timing prediction algorithm is proposed, based on the expectation distribution of individual wheel RUL. Finally, the model is validated using a 500-day online monitoring data on a fixed group, consisting of 54 freight train cars. The validation result shows that the model can predict the wheels RUL of the train for CCBM. The proposed method can be used to predict the maintenance timing when there is a large number of components under the same working conditions and following the same path of degradation.

scholarly journals Estimating Remaining Useful Life for Degrading Systems with Large Fluctuations

2018 ◽  
Vol 2018 ◽  
pp. 1-11 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dang-Bo Du ◽  
Jian-Xun Zhang ◽  
Zhi-Jie Zhou ◽  
Xiao-Sheng Si ◽  
Chang-Hua Hu
Keyword(s):  
Stochastic Process ◽  
Standard Deviation ◽  
Health Management ◽  
Prediction Method ◽  
Remaining Useful Life ◽  
Threshold Function ◽  
Engineering Practice ◽  
Practical Case ◽  
Degradation Data ◽  
Useful Life

Remaining useful life (RUL) prediction method based on degradation trajectory has been one of the most important parts in prognostics and health management (PHM). In the conventional model, the degradation data are usually used for degradation modeling directly. In engineering practice, the degradation of many systems presents a volatile situation, that is, fluctuation. In fact, the volatility of degradation data shows the stability of system, so it could be used to reflect the performance of system. As such, this paper proposes a new degradation model for RUL estimation based on the volatility of degradation data. Firstly the degradation data are decomposed into trend items and random items, which are defined as a stochastic process. Then the standard deviation of the stochastic process is defined as another performance variable because standard deviation reflects the system performance. Finally the Wiener process and the normal stochastic process are used to model the trend items and random items separately, and then the probability density function (PDF) of the RUL is obtained via a redefined failure threshold function that combines the trend items and the standard deviation of the random items. Two practical case studies demonstrate that, compared with traditional approaches, the proposed model can deal with the degradation data with many fluctuations better and can get a more reasonable result which is convenient for maintenance decision.

An Intelligent Prognostic System for Gear Performance Degradation Assessment and Remaining Useful Life Estimation

2015 ◽  
Vol 137 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Dong Wang ◽  
Qiang Miao ◽  
Qinghua Zhou ◽  
Guangwu Zhou
Keyword(s):  
Health Condition ◽  
Performance Degradation ◽  
Dynamic Bayesian Networks ◽  
Remaining Useful Life ◽  
Accelerated Life Test ◽  
Monte Carlo Algorithm ◽  
Residual Lifetime ◽  
Mechanical Transmission ◽  
Prognostic System ◽  
Useful Life

Gears are widely used in machines to transmit torque from one shaft to another shaft and to change the speed of a power source. Gear failure is one of the major causes for mechanical transmission system breakdown. Therefore, early gear faults must be immediately detected prior to its failure. Once early gear faults are diagnosed, gear remaining useful life (RUL) should be estimated to prevent any unexpected gear failure. In this paper, an intelligent prognostic system is developed for gear performance degradation assessment and RUL estimation. For gear performance degradation assessment, which aims to monitor current gear health condition, first, the frequency spectrum of gear acceleration error signal is mathematically analyzed to design a high-order complex Comblet for extracting gear fault related signatures. Then, two health indicators called heath indicator 1 and health indicator 2 are constructed to detect early gear faults and assess gear performance degradation, respectively, using two individual dynamic Bayesian networks. For gear RUL estimation, which aims to predict future gear health condition, a general sequential Monte Carlo algorithm is applied to iteratively infer gear failure probability density function (FPDF), which is used to predict gear residual lifetime. One case study is investigated to illustrate how the developed prognostic system works. The vibration data collected from a gearbox accelerated life test are used in this paper, where the gearbox started from a brand-new state, and ran until gear tooth failure. The results show that the developed prognostic system is able to detect early gear faults, track gear performance degradation, and predict gear RUL.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document