scholarly journals Power-Law Properties of Human View and Reply Behavior in Online Society

2012 ◽  
Vol 2012 ◽  
pp. 1-7 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ye Wu ◽  
Qihui Ye ◽  
Lixiang Li ◽  
Jinghua Xiao
Keyword(s):  
Public Opinion ◽  
Power Law ◽  
Social Systems ◽  
Model Fit ◽  
Opinion Formation ◽  
The Public ◽  
Power Law Function ◽  
Using Data ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Power Law Distributions

Statistical properties of the human comment behavior are studied using data from “Tianya” and “Tieba” which are very popular online social systems (or forums) in China. We find that both the reply numberRand the view numberVof a thread in a subforum obey the power-law distributionsP(R)=RαandP(V)∝Vβ, respectively, which indicates that there exists a kind of highly popular topics. These topics should be specially paid much attention, because they play an important role in the public opinion formation and the public opinion control. In addition, the relationship betweenRandValso obeys the power-law functionR∝Vγ. Based on the human comment habit, a model is introduced to explain the human view and reply behaviors in the forum. Numerical simulations of the model fit well with the empirical results. Our findings are helpful for discovering collective patterns of human behaviors and the evolution of public opinions on the virtual society as well as the real one.

By Popular Demand: The Effect of Public Opinion on Income Inequality

2005 ◽  
Vol 4 (3-4) ◽  
pp. 261-284 ◽  
Author(s):  
Robert Andersen ◽  
Anthony Heath ◽  
David Weakliem
Keyword(s):  
Public Opinion ◽  
Income Inequality ◽  
Instrumental Variables ◽  
Public Support ◽  
Reciprocal Causation ◽  
Low Incomes ◽  
The World ◽  
Using Data ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Distribution Of Income

AbstractThis paper examines the relationship between public support for wage differentials and actual income inequality using data from the World Values Surveys. The distribution of income is more equal in nations where public opinion is more egalitarian. There is some evidence that the opinions of people with higher incomes are more influential than those of people with low incomes. Although the estimated relationship is stronger in democracies, it is present even under non-democratic governments, and the hypothesis that effects are equal cannot be rejected. We consider the possibility of reciprocal causation by means of an instrumental variables analysis, which yields no evidence that income distribution affects opinion.

scholarly journals Toward a Country-Based Prediction Model of COVID-19 Infections and Deaths Between Disease Apex and End: Evidence From Countries With Contained Numbers of COVID-19

2021 ◽  
Vol 8 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tianshu Gu ◽  
Lishi Wang ◽  
Ning Xie ◽  
Xia Meng ◽  
Zhijun Li ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Real Data ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Actual Number ◽  
The Public ◽  
The Us ◽  
Multiple Regression Models ◽  
Before And After ◽  
Using Data ◽  
High Degree ◽  
The Relationship

The complexity of COVID-19 and variations in control measures and containment efforts in different countries have caused difficulties in the prediction and modeling of the COVID-19 pandemic. We attempted to predict the scale of the latter half of the pandemic based on real data using the ratio between the early and latter halves from countries where the pandemic is largely over. We collected daily pandemic data from China, South Korea, and Switzerland and subtracted the ratio of pandemic days before and after the disease apex day of COVID-19. We obtained the ratio of pandemic data and created multiple regression models for the relationship between before and after the apex day. We then tested our models using data from the first wave of the disease from 14 countries in Europe and the US. We then tested the models using data from these countries from the entire pandemic up to March 30, 2021. Results indicate that the actual number of cases from these countries during the first wave mostly fall in the predicted ranges of liniar regression, excepting Spain and Russia. Similarly, the actual deaths in these countries mostly fall into the range of predicted data. Using the accumulated data up to the day of apex and total accumulated data up to March 30, 2021, the data of case numbers in these countries are falling into the range of predicted data, except for data from Brazil. The actual number of deaths in all the countries are at or below the predicted data. In conclusion, a linear regression model built with real data from countries or regions from early pandemics can predict pandemic scales of the countries where the pandemics occur late. Such a prediction with a high degree of accuracy provides valuable information for governments and the public.

Normative justification for public arts funding: what can we learn from linking arts consumption and arts policy in Israel?

2018 ◽  
Vol 18 (1) ◽  
pp. 193-213 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tal Feder
Keyword(s):  
Public Funding ◽  
State Intervention ◽  
Arts Organizations ◽  
Arts Funding ◽  
Arts Policy ◽  
The Public ◽  
The Arts ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Normative Justification ◽  
The Relationship

AbstractThis article studies the socioeconomics of government public expenditure for the arts and the normative foundations of state intervention in the arts. I pose two interrelated research questions: (a) what is the relationship between the public funding of the arts and their consumption? and (b) what mode of justification and what perception of the place of art in society is reflected in this relationship? Based on the philosophical work of Alan Badiou, I develop a novel conceptual framework to delineate three types of normative justifications for the public funding of arts organizations: romantic, didactic and classical. Using data from the public funding of 92 orchestras, theaters and dance troupes in Israel between 1999 and 2011, I estimate a cross-lagged panel data model to study how arts funding both affects and is affected by the levels of consumption of the organizations’ productions. The results of the study show a complex pattern of different relationships between funding and consumption that accord with the three types of normative justifications for public arts funding.

scholarly journals Entre la tradición y la modernidad : las ceremonias públicas gallegas en el reinado de Fernando VII

1997 ◽  
Author(s):  
Roberto J. López
Keyword(s):  
Public Opinion ◽  
Social Context ◽  
Economic Models ◽  
General Context ◽  
Opinion Formation ◽  
The Public

Se analizan en este trabajo las ceremonias públicas gallegas del reinado de Fernando VII, tratando de integrarlas en el contexto general de la formación de la opinión pública y en el particular de la situación social y económica de Galicia en la crisis del Antiguo Régimen. El estudio a partir de ambos criterios permite entender las ceremonias públicas del período 1808-1833 como la manifestación de una sociedad que se debate entre dos grandes modelos socioeconómicos, el absolutista y el liberal, y en el que el peso del primero es abrumador.Public ceremonies during the Fernando VII reign in Gallee are analyzed in this work trying to intégrate them into the general context of public opinión formation and the particular economic and social context in Gallee in that time. So, we can understand the public ceremonies of 1808-1833 as the expression of a society with a strong discussion inside between two great social and economic models, absolutist and liberal, and with a special predominance of the traditional principies.

The cooperative and competitive mechanisms of a leader’s opinion transmission

2020 ◽  
Vol 31 (09) ◽  
pp. 2050127
Author(s):  
Adil Amirjanov
Keyword(s):  
Public Opinion ◽  
Numerical Experiments ◽  
Continuous Model ◽  
Opinion Formation ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
The Public ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Cooperative Process ◽  
Competitive Mechanisms ◽  
The Individual

The paper modeled a leader’s opinion transmission in a population. The proposed model develops the cooperation agent-based continuous model in which the cooperation of individuals is based on the similarity of evolved “tags” which are relative to evolved tag-difference tolerances. In proposed model, an individual’s opinion and the individual’s tolerance are specified as variables in the model. During communication with each other and with a leader, the resources of individuals are incremented, if they are tolerable to the opinions of their opponents. An opinion formation in population is established by a cooperative process — changing individual’s opinion, if the individual is tolerable to the opinions of opponents, and by a competitive process — copying opinions and tolerances of successful individuals who have higher resource. Numerical experiments have proven that the public opinion reached a consensus followed the leader’s opinion.

Power Law Distributions and the Size Distribution of Strikes

2017 ◽  
Vol 48 (3) ◽  
pp. 561-587 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michele Campolieti
Keyword(s):  
Size Distribution ◽  
Power Law ◽  
Model Fit ◽  
Power Law Distribution ◽  
Policy Perspective ◽  
Methodological Research ◽  
Canadian Data ◽  
Alternative Measures ◽  
Power Law Distributions ◽  
Research And Policy

Using Canadian data from 1976 to 2014, I study the size distribution of strikes with three alternative measures of strike size: the number of workers on strike, strike duration in calendar days, and the number of person calendar days lost to a strike. I use a maximum likelihood framework that provides a way to estimate distributions, evaluate model fit, and also test against alternative distributions. I consider a few theories that can create power law distributions in strike size, such as the joint costs model that posits strike size is inversely proportional to dispute costs. I find that the power law distribution fits the data for the number of lost person calendar days relatively well and is also more appropriate than the lognormal distribution. I also discuss the implications of my findings from a methodological, research, and policy perspective.

scholarly journals Guerra e opinião pública nos Estados Unidos: o caso da Guerra do Iraque em 2003 / War and public opinion in the United States: the Iraq War in 2003

2020 ◽  
Vol 3 (3) ◽  
pp. 419-448
Author(s):  
Cláudio Júnior Damin
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Public Opinion ◽  
Iraq War ◽  
The United States ◽  
War On Terrorism ◽  
Global War On Terrorism ◽  
The Public ◽  
The Government ◽  
Global War ◽  
The Relationship

O artigo aborda a relação existente entre guerra e opinião pública nos Estados Unidos. O artigo foca na análise do caso da Guerra do Iraque iniciada em março de 2003 durante os mandatos de George W. Bush. Esse conflito insere-se no contexto dos ataques terroristas de 11 de setembro de 2001, sendo parte constitutiva da chamada “guerra global contra o terrorismo”. A primeira hipótese de trabalho é a de que inicialmente e reproduzindo padrões históricos anteriores, a guerra foi amplamente aprovada pela população norte-americana, processo que se prolongou por alguns meses e influenciou decisivamente para a reeleição do presidente republicano em 2004. Como segunda hipótese assevera-se que, passado algum tempo, o humor da opinião pública sofreu uma inflexão, diminuindo a aprovação popular à guerra e tendo como importante desdobramento a derrota dos republicanos na eleição de 2008, com o conflito ainda em curso. Espera-se mostrar, portanto, como a Guerra do Iraque pode ser dividida em duas fases distintas, sendo a primeira de bônus para o governo de George W. Bush e seus correligionários republicanos e a outra de ônus a partir do crescimento do número de baixas militares norte-americanas e da crise de credibilidade do governo no que concerne às perspectivas de vitória definitiva no conflito.Abstract: The article discusses the relationship between war and public opinion in the United States. The article focuses on the analysis of the case of the Iraq War that began in March 2003 during the administration of George W. Bush. This conflict is within the context of the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, being a constituent part of the "Global War on Terrorism." The first hypothesis is that initially and reproducing previous historical standards, the war was widely approved by the American population, a process that was prolonged for a few months and influenced decisively to the re-election of Republican president in 2004. As a second hypothesis asserts that, after some time, the mood of public opinion has undergone a shift, reducing the public approval of the war and with the important effect the defeat of the Republicans in the 2008 election. It is expected, therefore, to show how the Iraq War can be divided into two distinct phases, with the first bonus for the George W. Bush and his fellow Republicans and other liens being from the growing number of U.S. military casualties and the crisis of credibility of the government with regard to the prospects of ultimate victory in the conflict.

scholarly journals We Have It Totally Under Control? Exploring the Effects of Ideology and Knowing Someone Diagnosed With COVID-19 on Evaluations of President Trump’s Leadership on the Pandemic

2021 ◽  
pp. 1532673X2110413
Author(s):  
Jason S. Byers ◽  
Laine P. Shay
Keyword(s):  
Public Opinion ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
Vote Choice ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
The Public ◽  
Mixed Response ◽  
Using Data

President Donald Trump has made various decisions, many controversial, to manage the coronavirus pandemic. The reaction to President Trump’s leadership has been met with a mixed response from the public. This raises an important question; what factors influence a citizen’s evaluation of President Trump’s response to the pandemic? We develop a theory that links a citizen knowing someone diagnosed with COVID-19 with their evaluation of President Trump’s management of the pandemic, with the expectation that this relationship is conditioned by a citizen’s ideology. Using data from two surveys, we find that knowing someone diagnosed with COVID-19 diminishes the effect ideology has on a citizen’s evaluation. Additionally, we find that a citizen’s evaluation of President Trump’s leadership on COVID-19 is associated with their vote choice in the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election. Overall, this article contributes to our understanding of public opinion on COVID-19 and its political ramifications.

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