scholarly journals Clinical and Histological Predictors of Renal Survival in Patients with Biopsy-Proven Diabetic Nephropathy

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-9
Author(s):  
Ting Zhou ◽  
Yiyun Wang ◽  
Li Shen ◽  
Xiaomei Li ◽  
Qiong Jiao ◽  
...  

<b><i>Introduction:</i></b> Clinical indicators or pathological features alone cannot reliably predict renal survival in patients with biopsy-confirmed diabetic nephropathy (DN). Therefore, this analysis sought to develop and validate a predictive model incorporating both clinical and pathological markers to predict renal outcomes in patients with biopsy-confirmed DN. <b><i>Methods:</i></b> A predictive nomogram was developed based upon data pertaining to 194 patients with biopsy-confirmed DN. The prognostic relevance of individual clinicopathological variables was assessed through univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses. A prognostic nomogram was then developed and validated based upon concordance (C)-index values and calibration curves. Internal validation was conducted through bootstrap resampling, while the clinical utility of this model was assessed via a decision curve analysis (DCA) approach. <b><i>Results:</i></b> Nephrotic-range 24-h proteinuria, late-stage CKD, glomerular classification III–IV, and IFTA score 2–3 were all identified as independent predictors of poor renal outcomes in DN patients and were incorporated into our final nomogram. Calibration curves revealed good agreement between predicted and actual 3- and 5-year renal survival in DN patients with the C-index value for this nomogram at 0.845 (95% CI: 0.826–0.864). DCA revealed that our nomogram was superior to models based solely upon clinical indicators. <b><i>Conclusion:</i></b> A predictive nomogram incorporating clinical and pathological indicators was developed and validated for the prediction of renal survival outcomes in patients with biopsy-confirmed DN. This model will be of value to clinicians, as it can serve as an easy-to-use and reliable tool for physicians to guide patient management based on individualized risk.

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Li Tan ◽  
Yi Tang ◽  
Gaiqin Pei ◽  
Zhengxia Zhong ◽  
Jiaxing Tan ◽  
...  

AbstractIt was reported that histopathologic lesions are risk factors for the progression of IgA Nephropathy (IgAN). The aim of this study was to investigate the relationships between mesangial deposition of C1q and renal outcomes in IgAN. 1071 patients with primary IgAN diagnosed by renal biopsy were enrolled in multiple study centers form January 2013 to January 2017. Patients were divided into two groups: C1q-positive and C1q-negative. Using a 1: 4 propensity score matching (PSM) method identifying age, gender, and treatment modality to minimize confounding factors, 580 matched (out of 926) C1q-negative patients were compared with 145 C1q-positive patients to evaluate severity of baseline clinicopathological features and renal outcome. Kaplan–Meier and Cox proportional hazards analyses were performed to determine whether mesangial C1q deposition is associated with renal outcomes in IgAN. During the follow-up period (41.89 ± 22.85 months), 54 (9.31%) patients in the C1q negative group and 23 (15.86%) patients in C1q positive group reached the endpoint (50% decline of eGFR and/or ESRD or death) respectively (p = 0.01) in the matched cohort. Significantly more patients in C1q negative group achieved complete or partial remission during the follow up period (P = 0.003) both before and after PSM. Three, 5 and 7-year renal survival rates in C1q-positive patients were significantly lower than C1q-negative patients in either unmatched cohort or matched cohort (all p < 0.05). Furthermore, multivariate Cox regression analysis showed that independent risk factors influencing renal survival included Scr, urinary protein, T1-T2 lesion and C1q deposition. Mesangial C1q deposition is a predictor of poor renal survival in IgA nephropathy.Trial registration TCTR, TCTR20140515001. Registered May 15, 2014, http://www.clinicaltrials.in.th/index.php?tp=regtrials&menu=trialsearch&smenu=fulltext&task=search&task2=view1&id=1074.


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiaowei Lou ◽  
Shizhu Yuan ◽  
Wei Shen ◽  
Yueming Liu ◽  
Juan Jin ◽  
...  

Abstract Background The effect of renal biopsy on the prognosis of elderly patients with chronic kidney disease remains unclear. Thus, in this study, we aimed to evaluate the relationship between renal biopsy and renal survival in this population.Methods In this multi-centre retrospective study, the baseline characteristics among three groups were balanced by propensity matching. All patients were divided into three groups according to age and renal biopsy. The clinicopathological features at biopsy and renal outcomes during the follow-up were collected and analysed. Renal outcomes were defined as estimated glomerular filtration rate < 15 mL/min/1.73 m2, dialysis, renal transplantation, or death. The prognostic effects of renal biopsy were evaluated using Cox regression models. Results A total of 1313 patients were identified. After propensity matching, 390 patients were selected and divided into three groups. After a total follow-up period of 55 months, 20 (13.3%) patients (47.6% group 1 vs 7.41% group 2 vs 39.1% group 3) reached renal outcomes. No significant differences were found in renal outcomes among aged patients whether they underwent renal biopsy or not. Cox regression analysis revealed risk factors in aged patients including low albumin and high levels of proteinuria and serum creatinine (P < 0.05). Platelet count was significant only in aged patients who underwent renal biopsy (hazard ratio: 0.642, P < 0.05). Conclusion In conclusion, renal biopsy in the elderly has not shown benefits in terms of renal survival, conservative treatment appears to be a viable therapeutic option in the management of those people.


2020 ◽  
Vol 79 (Suppl 1) ◽  
pp. 674.1-674
Author(s):  
C. C. Mok ◽  
C. S. Sin ◽  
K. C. Hau ◽  
T. H. Kwan

Background:The goals of treatment of lupus nephritis (LN) are to induce remission, retard the progression of chronic kidney disease, prevent organ complications and ultimately reduce mortality. Previous cohort studies of LN have mainly focused on the risk of mortality and development of end stage renal failure (ESRF) (renal survival). The cumulative frequency of LN patients who survive without organ damage, which correlates better with the balance between treatment efficacy and toxicity, as well as quality of life, has not been well studied.Objectives:To study the organ damage free survival and its predictive factors in patients with active LN.Methods:Consecutive patients who fulfilled ≥4 ACR/SLICC criteria for SLE and with biopsy proven active LN between 2003 and 2018 were retrospectivey analyzed. Those with organ damage before LN onset were excluded. Data on renal parameters and treatment regimens were collected. Complete renal response (CR) was defined as normalization of serum creatinine (SCr), urine P/Cr (uPCR) <0.5 and inactive urinary sediments. Partial renal response (PR) was defined as ≥50% reduction in uPCR and <25% increase in SCr. Organ damage of SLE was assessed by the ACR/SLICC damage index (SDI). The cumulative risk of having any organ damage or mortality since LN was studied by Kaplan-Meier’s analysis. Factors associated with a poor outcome were studied by a forward stepwise Cox regression model, with entry of covariates with p<0.05 and removal with p>0.10.Results:273 LN patients were identified but 64 were excluded (organ damage before LN onset). 211 LN patients were studied (92% women; age at SLE 30.4±13.5 years; SLE duration at LN 1.9±3.1years). 47 (22%) patients had nephrotic syndrome and 60 (29%) were hypertensive. Histological LN classes was: III/IV±V (75.1%), I/II (7.8%) and pure V (17.1%) (histologic activity and chronicity score 7.0±4.2 and 1.8±1.5, respectively). Induction regimens were: prednisolone (33.1±17.5mg/day) in combination with intravenous cyclophosphamide (CYC) (21.4%; 1.0±0.2g per pulse), oral CYC (8.6%; 96.4±37.8mg/day), azathioprine (AZA) (14.3%; 78.6±25.2mg/day), mycophenolate mofetil (MMF) (22.8%; 1.9±0.43g/day) and tacrolimus (TAC) (17.1%; 4.3±1.1mg/day). After a follow-up of 8.6±5.4 years, 94(45%) patient developed organ damage (SDI≥1) and 21(10%) patients died. The commonest organ damage was renal (36.3%) and musculoskeletal (17.9%), and the causes of death were: infection (38.1%), malignancy (19.0%), cardiovascular events (9.5%) and ESRF complications (9.5%). At last visit, 114 (55%) patients survived without any organ damage. The cumulative organ damage free survival at 5, 10 and 15 years after renal biopsy was 73.5%, 59.6% and 48.3%, respectively. The 5, 10 and 15-year renal survival rate were 95.2%, 92.0% and 84.1% respectively. In a Cox regression model, nephritic relapse (HR 3.72[1.78-7.77]), proteinuric relapse (HR 2.30[1.07-4.95]) and older age (HR 1.89[1.05-3.37]) were associated with either organ damage or mortality, whereas CR (HR 0.25[0.12-0.50]) at month 12 were associated with organ damage free survival. Baseline SCr, uPCR and histological LN classes were not significantly associated with a poor outcome. Among patients with class III/IV LN, the long-term organ damage free survival were not significantly different in users of MMF (reference) from CYC (IV/oral) (HR 1.45[0.76- 2.75]) or TAC (HR 1.03[0.26-1.62]) as induction therapy.Conclusion:Organ damage free survival is achieved in 55% of patients with active LN upon 9 years of follow-up. CYC/MMF/TAC based induction regimens did not differ for the long-term outcome of LN. Targeting complete renal response and preventing renal relapses remain important goals of LN treatment.Acknowledgments:NILDisclosure of Interests:None declared


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xinxin Chen ◽  
Wenxia Qiu ◽  
Xuekun Xie ◽  
Zefeng Chen ◽  
Zhiwei Han ◽  
...  

Abstract Background: This work was designed to establish and verify our nomograms integrating clinicopathological characteristics with hematological biomarkers to predict both disease-free survival (DFS) and overall survival (OS) in solitary hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients following hepatectomy.Methods: We scrutinized the data retrospectively from 414 patients with a clinicopathological diagnosis of solitary HCC from Guangxi Medical University Cancer Hospital (Nanning, China) between January 2004 and December 2012. Following the random separation of the samples in a 7:3 ratio into the training set and validation set, the former set was assessed by Cox regression analysis to develop two nomograms to predict the 1-year and 3-year DFS and OS (3-years and 5-years). This was followed by discrimination and calibration estimation employing Harrell’s C-index (C-index) and calibration curves, while the internal validation was also assessed.Results: In the training cohort, the tumor diameter, tumor capsule, macrovascular invasion, and alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) were included in the DFS nomogram. Age, tumor diameter, tumor capsule, macrovascular invasion, microvascular invasion, and aspartate aminotransferase (AST) were included in the OS nomogram. The C-index was 0.691 (95% CI: 0.644-0.738) for the DFS-nomogram and 0.713 (95% CI: 0.670-0.756) for the OS-nomogram. The survival probability calibration curves displayed a fine agreement between the predicted and observed ranges in both data sets. Conclusion: Our nomograms combined clinicopathological features with hematological biomarkers to emerge effective in predicting the DFS and OS in solitary HCC patients following curative liver resection. Therefore, the potential utility of our nomograms for guiding individualized treatment clinically and monitor the recurrence monitoring in these patients.


Hypertension ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 70 (suppl_1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Gemma E Currie ◽  
Sheon Mary ◽  
Bernt J von Scholten ◽  
Morten Lindhardt ◽  
Harald Mischak ◽  
...  

Background: Mortality in type 2 diabetes (T2D) is primarily driven by cardiovascular disease. This is amplified in diabetic nephropathy (DN), even in early ‘pre-clinical’ stages. A urinary peptidomic classifier (CKD273) has been found to predict DN development in advance of detectable microalbuminuria. Whether it is also a determinant of mortality and cardiovascular disease in patients with established albuminuria is unknown. Methods: We studied 155 subjects with T2D, albuminuria (geometrical mean [IQR]: 85 [34;194] mg/24hrs), controlled blood pressure (129±16/74±11 mmHg) and preserved renal function (eGFR 88±17 ml/min/1.73m 2 ). Blood and urine samples were collected for measurement of estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), urine albumin excretion (UAE), N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP; ELISA) and urinary proteomics (capillary electrophoresis coupled to mass spectrometry). Computed tomography imaging was performed to assess coronary artery calcium (CAC) score. Outcome data were collected through national disease registries over a 6 year follow up period. Results: CKD273 correlated with UAE (r=0.481, p=<0.001), age (r=0.238, p=0.003), CAC score (r=0.236, p=0.003), NT-proBNP (r=0.190, p=0.018) and eGFR (r=0.265, p=0.001). On multiple regression only UAE (β=0.402, p<0.001) and eGFR (β=-0.184, p=0.039) were statistically significant determinants. Twenty participants died during follow-up. CKD273 was a determinant of mortality (log rank [Mantel-Cox] p=0.004), and retained significance (p=0.050) after adjustment for age, sex, blood pressure, NT-proBNP and CAC score in a Cox regression model. Neither eGFR nor UAE were determinants of mortality in this cohort. Conclusions: A multidimensional biomarker can provide information on outcomes associated with its primary diagnostic purpose. Here we demonstrate that the peptidomics-based classifier CKD273 is associated with mortality in albuminuric people with T2D in even when adjusted for other established cardiovascular and renal biomarkers.


PPAR Research ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 2021 ◽  
pp. 1-10
Author(s):  
Wenfang Xu ◽  
Zhen Chen ◽  
Gang Liu ◽  
Yuping Dai ◽  
Xuanfu Xu ◽  
...  

Peroxisome proliferator-activated receptors (PPARs) and part of their target genes have been reported to be related to the progression of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). The prognosis of HCC is not optimistic, and more accurate prognostic markers are needed. This study focused on discovering potential prognostic markers from the PPAR-related gene set. The mRNA data and clinical information of HCC were collected from TCGA and GEO platforms. Univariate Cox and lasso Cox regression analyses were used to screen prognostic genes of HCC. Three genes (MMP1, HMGCS2, and SLC27A5) involved in the PPAR signaling pathway were selected as the prognostic signature of HCC. A formula was established based on the expression values and multivariate Cox regression coefficients of selected genes, that was, risk   score = 0.1488 ∗ expression   value   of   M M P 1 + − 0.0393 ∗ expression   value   of   H M G C S 2 + − 0.0479 ∗ expression   value   of   S L C 27 A 5 . The prognostic ability of the three-gene signature was assessed in the TCGA HCC dataset and verified in three GEO sets (GSE14520, GSE36376, and GSE76427). The results showed that the risk score based on our signature was a risk factor with a HR (hazard ratio) of 2.72 ( 95 % CI   Confidence   Interval = 1.87 ~ 3.95 , p < 0.001 ) for HCC survival. The signature could significantly ( p < 0.0001 ) distinguish high-risk and low-risk patients with poor prognosis for HCC. In addition, we further explored the independence and applicability of the signature with other clinical indicators through multivariate Cox analysis ( p < 0.001 ) and nomogram analysis ( C ‐ index = 0.709 ). The above results indicate that the combination of MMP1, HMGCS2, and SLC27A5 selected from the PPAR signaling pathway could effectively, independently, and applicatively predict the prognosis of HCC. Our research provided new insights to the prognosis of HCC.


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tao Fan ◽  
Bo Hao ◽  
Shuo Yang ◽  
Bo Shen ◽  
Zhixin Huang ◽  
...  

BACKGROUND In late December 2019, a pneumonia caused by SARS-CoV-2 was first reported in Wuhan and spread worldwide rapidly. Currently, no specific medicine is available to treat infection with COVID-19. OBJECTIVE The aims of this study were to summarize the epidemiological and clinical characteristics of 175 patients with SARS-CoV-2 infection who were hospitalized in Renmin Hospital of Wuhan University from January 1 to January 31, 2020, and to establish a tool to identify potential critical patients with COVID-19 and help clinical physicians prevent progression of this disease. METHODS In this retrospective study, clinical characteristics of 175 confirmed COVID-19 cases were collected and analyzed. Univariate analysis and least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression were used to select variables. Multivariate analysis was applied to identify independent risk factors in COVID-19 progression. We established a nomogram to evaluate the probability of progression of the condition of a patient with COVID-19 to severe within three weeks of disease onset. The nomogram was verified using calibration curves and receiver operating characteristic curves. RESULTS A total of 18 variables were considered to be risk factors after the univariate regression analysis of the laboratory parameters (<i>P</i>&lt;.05), and LASSO regression analysis screened out 10 risk factors for further study. The six independent risk factors revealed by multivariate Cox regression were age (OR 1.035, 95% CI 1.017-1.054; <i>P</i>&lt;.001), CK level (OR 1.002, 95% CI 1.0003-1.0039; <i>P</i>=.02), CD4 count (OR 0.995, 95% CI 0.992-0.998; <i>P</i>=.002), CD8 % (OR 1.007, 95% CI 1.004-1.012, <i>P</i>&lt;.001), CD8 count (OR 0.881, 95% CI 0.835-0.931; <i>P</i>&lt;.001), and C3 count (OR 6.93, 95% CI 1.945-24.691; <i>P</i>=.003). The areas under the curve of the prediction model for 0.5-week, 1-week, 2-week and 3-week nonsevere probability were 0.721, 0.742, 0.87, and 0.832, respectively. The calibration curves showed that the model had good prediction ability within three weeks of disease onset. CONCLUSIONS This study presents a predictive nomogram of critical patients with COVID-19 based on LASSO and Cox regression analysis. Clinical use of the nomogram may enable timely detection of potential critical patients with COVID-19 and instruct clinicians to administer early intervention to these patients to prevent the disease from worsening.


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tianwei Wang ◽  
Yunyan Wang

Abstract Objectives: In this study, we want to combine GATA3, VEGF, EGFR and Ki67 with clinical information to develop and validate a prognostic nomogram for bladder cancer.Methods: A total of 188 patients with clinical information and immunohistochemistry were enrolled in this study, from 1996 to 2018. Univariable and multivariable cox regression analysis was applied to identify risk factors for nomogram of overall survival (OS). The calibration of the nomogram was performed and the Area Under Curve (AUC) was calculated to assess the performance of the nomogram. Internal validation was performed with the validation cohort., the calibration curve and the AUC were calculated simultaneously.Results: Univariable and multivariable analysis showed that age (HR: 2.229; 95% CI: 1.162-4.274; P=0.016), histology (HR: 0.320; 95% CI: 0.136-0.751; P=0.009), GATA3 (HR: 0.348; 95% CI: 0.171-0.709; P=0.004), VEGF (HR: 2.295; 95% CI: 1.225-4.301; P=0.010) and grade (HR: 4.938; 95% CI: 1.339-18.207; P=0.016) remained as independent risk factors for OS. The age, histology, grade, GATA3 and VEGF were included to build the nomogram. The accuracy of the risk model was further verified with the C-index. The C-index were 0.65 (95% CI, 0.58-0.72) and 0.58 (95% CI, 0.46-0.70) in the training and validation cohort respectively. Conclusions: A combination of clinical variables with immunohistochemical results based nomogram would predict the overall survival of patients with bladder cancer.


2019 ◽  
Vol 49 (3) ◽  
pp. 214-224 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fan Wang ◽  
Jian-Da Lu ◽  
Ying Zhu ◽  
Ting-Ting Wang ◽  
Jun Xue

Background: Is the prognosis of immunoglobulin A nephropathy (IgAN) influenced by pregnancy and delivery? The answer to this question still remains to be a controversial topic. Here, we undertook a systematic review and meta-analysis to obtain the overall estimate of potential effect of IgAN and pregnancy on each other. Methods: We systematically searched MEDLINE, EMBASE, Chinese Biological Medicine and Cochrane for cohort and case-control studies; a total of 1,378 articles were reviewed and 9 studies were included in the end. OR and mean difference (MD) were calculated with a random-effects model, kidney events and pregnancy outcomes were analyzed respectively. Results: The key finding of the meta-analysis of 145 renal events in 1,198 participants was that there was no difference in renal outcomes (defined as doubling of serum creatinine (SCr), 50% decline in glomerular filtration rate [GFR] and end-stage kidney disease) of pregnant women compared with non-pregnant women who had IgAN (OR 0.90; 95% CI 0.59–1.37; p = 0.63). Subgroup analysis indicated that there was no significant difference between the 2 groups according to sample size, follow-up year, age, level of SCr and proteinuria at baseline. There was no difference in the change of the eGFR/creatinine clearance rate (mL/min/1.73 m2 per year) in IgAN patients with pregnancy compared with non-pregnancy (MD –0.11 mL/min; 95% CI –0.50–0.27; p = 0.57) as well. Women with IgAN had a higher likelihood of pregnancy outcomes compared with the Chinese general population, while they had a lower risk of preterm delivery, preeclampsia and low birth weight compared with those who had lupus nephritis or diabetic nephropathy. Conclusions: Pregnancy did not accelerate kidney disease deterioration in women with IgAN in stages of chronic kidney disease 1–3. Moreover, patients with IgAN had a relatively low risk of adverse pregnancy events compared with those with lupus nephritis or diabetic nephropathy.


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