Climate Change over the Equatorial Indo-Pacific in Global Warming*

2009 ◽  
Vol 22 (10) ◽  
pp. 2678-2693 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chie Ihara ◽  
Yochanan Kushnir ◽  
Mark A. Cane ◽  
Victor H. de la Peña
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Indian Ocean ◽  
Wind Stress ◽  
Zonal Wind ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Emission Scenario ◽  
Equatorial Indian Ocean ◽  
Zonal Wind Stress ◽  
Sst Gradient

Abstract The response of the equatorial Indian Ocean climate to global warming is investigated using model outputs submitted to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report. In all of the analyzed climate models, the SSTs in the western equatorial Indian Ocean warm more than the SSTs in the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean under global warming; the mean SST gradient across the equatorial Indian Ocean is anomalously positive to the west in a warmer twenty-first-century climate compared to the twentieth-century climate, and it is dynamically consistent with the anomalous westward zonal wind stress and anomalous positive zonal sea level pressure (SLP) gradient to the east at the equator. This change in the zonal SST gradient in the equatorial Indian Ocean is detected even in the lowest-emission scenario, and the size of the change is not necessarily larger in the higher-emission scenario. With respect to the change over the equatorial Pacific in climate projections, the subsurface central Pacific displays the strongest cooling or weakest warming around the thermocline depth compared to that above and below in all of the climate models, whereas changes in the zonal SST gradient and zonal wind stress around the equator are model dependent and not straightforward.

scholarly journals Causes of Strengthening and Weakening of ENSO Amplitude under Global Warming in Four CMIP5 Models*

2015 ◽  
Vol 28 (8) ◽  
pp. 3250-3274 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lin Chen ◽  
Tim Li ◽  
Yongqiang Yu
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
Wind Stress ◽  
Zonal Wind ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Heat Budget ◽  
Meridional Overturning Circulation ◽  
Cmip5 Models ◽  
Zonal Wind Stress ◽  
Equatorial Thermocline ◽  
Change In Mean

Abstract The mechanisms for El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) amplitude change under global warming are investigated through quantitative assessment of air–sea feedback processes in present-day and future climate simulations of four models participating in phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). Two models (MPI-ESM-MR and MRI-CGCM3) project strengthened ENSO amplitude, whereas the other two models (CCSM4 and FGOALS-g2) project weakened ENSO amplitude. A mixed layer heat budget diagnosis shows that the major cause of the projected ENSO amplitude difference between the two groups is attributed to the changes of the thermocline and zonal advective feedbacks. A weaker (stronger) equatorial thermocline response to a unit anomalous zonal wind stress forcing in the Niño-4 region is found in CCSM4 and FGOALS-g2 (MPI-ESM-MR and MRI-CGCM3). The cause of the different response arises from the change in the meridional scale of ENSO. A narrower (wider) meridional width of sea surface temperature (SST) and zonal wind stress anomalies causes a strengthening (weakening) of the equatorial thermocline response and thus stronger Bjerknes and zonal advective feedbacks, as the subsurface temperature and zonal current anomalies depend on the thermocline response; consequently, the ENSO amplitude increases (decreases). The change of ENSO meridional width is caused by the change in mean meridional overturning circulation in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, which depends on change of mean wind stress and SST warming patterns under global warming.

scholarly journals Seasonal Variation of the Seychelles Dome

2008 ◽  
Vol 21 (15) ◽  
pp. 3740-3754 ◽  
Author(s):  
Takaaki Yokoi ◽  
Tomoki Tozuka ◽  
Toshio Yamagata
Keyword(s):  
Seasonal Variation ◽  
Indian Ocean ◽  
Wind Stress ◽  
Zonal Wind ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Indian Monsoon ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
The Other ◽  
Boreal Summer ◽  
Zonal Wind Stress

Abstract Using an ocean general circulation model (OGCM), seasonal variation of the Seychelles Dome (SD) is investigated for the first time. The SD is an oceanic thermal dome located in the southwestern Indian Ocean, and its influence on sea surface temperature is known to play an important role in the Indian monsoon system. Its seasonal variation is dominated by a remarkable semiannual cycle resulting from local Ekman upwelling. This semiannual nature is explained by different contributions of the following two components of the Ekman pumping: one term that is proportional to the planetary beta and the zonal wind stress and the other term that is proportional to the wind stress curl. The former is determined by the seasonal change in the zonal component of the wind stress vector above the SD; it is associated with the Indian monsoon and causes downwelling (upwelling) during boreal summer (boreal winter). The latter, whose major contribution comes from the meridional gradient of the zonal wind stress, also shows a clear annual cycle with strong upwelling during boreal summer and fall. However, it remains almost constant for 5 months from June to October, even though the zonal wind stress itself varies significantly during this period. The above overall feature is due to the unique location of the SD; it is located between the following two regions: one is dominated by the seasonal variation in wind stress resulting from the Indian monsoon, and the other is dominated by the southeasterly trade winds that prevail throughout a year. The above uniqueness provides a novel mechanism that causes the strong semiannual cycle in the tropical Indian Ocean.

scholarly journals Impact of Equatorial Wind Stress on Ekman Transport During the Mature Phase of the Indian Ocean Dipole

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Linfang Zhang ◽  
Yaokun Li ◽  
Jianping Li
Keyword(s):  
Indian Ocean ◽  
Wind Stress ◽  
Zonal Wind ◽  
Indian Ocean Dipole ◽  
Meridional Overturning Circulation ◽  
Ekman Transport ◽  
Zonal Wind Stress ◽  
Mature Phase ◽  
The Indian Ocean ◽  
The Impact

Abstract This paper investigates the impact of equatorial wind stress on the equatorial Ekman transport during the Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) mature phase. The results show that the equatorial zonal wind stress directly drives the meridional motion of seawater at the upper levels. In normal years, the zonal wind stress south of the equator is easterly and that north of the equator is westerly, which contributes to southward Ekman transport at the upper levels to form the climatological Indian Ocean shallow meridional overturning circulation. During the years of positive IOD events, abnormal easterly winds near the equator bring southward Ekman transport south of the equator while they bring northward Ekman transport north of the equator. This causes the seawater to move away from the equator and hence induces upwelling near the equator, which forms a pair of small circulation cells that are symmetric about the equator at the upper levels (approximately 100 m deep). The abnormal circulation cell south (north) of the equator strengthens (weakens) the southward (southward) motion south (north) of the equator. During years with negative IOD events, the opposite occurs. In addition, during the mature period of IOD, the remote sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) such as El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) may exert some influence on equatorial wind stress and Ekman transport anomaly but the influence is weak.

scholarly journals Interhemispheric SST Gradient Trends in the Indian Ocean prior to and during the Recent Global Warming Hiatusa

2016 ◽  
Vol 29 (24) ◽  
pp. 9077-9095 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lu Dong ◽  
Michael J. McPhaden
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
Indian Ocean ◽  
Wind Stress ◽  
Coastal Upwelling ◽  
Surface Wind ◽  
Heat Fluxes ◽  
Thermocline Depth ◽  
Upwelled Water ◽  
The Indian Ocean ◽  
Sst Gradient

Abstract Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) have been rising for decades in the Indian Ocean in response to greenhouse gas forcing. However, this study shows that during the recent hiatus in global warming, a striking interhemispheric gradient in Indian Ocean SST trends developed around 2000, with relatively weak or little warming to the north of 10°S and accelerated warming to the south of 10°S. Evidence is presented from a wide variety of data sources showing that this interhemispheric gradient in SST trends is forced primarily by an increase of Indonesian Throughflow (ITF) transport from the Pacific into the Indian Ocean induced by stronger Pacific trade winds. This increased transport led to a depression of the thermocline that facilitated SST warming, presumably through a reduction in the vertical turbulent transport of heat in the southern Indian Ocean. Surface wind changes in the Indian Ocean linked to the enhanced Walker circulation also may have contributed to thermocline depth variations and associated SST changes, with downwelling-favorable wind stress curls between 10° and 20°S and upwelling-favorable wind stress curls between the equator and 10°S. In addition, the anomalous southwesterly wind stresses off the coast of Somalia favored intensified coastal upwelling and offshore advection of upwelled water, which would have led to reduced warming of the northern Indian Ocean. Although highly uncertain, lateral heat advection associated with the ITF and surface heat fluxes may also have played a role in forming the interhemispheric SST gradient change.

scholarly journals A Role for the Equatorial Undercurrent in the Ocean Dynamical Thermostat

2018 ◽  
Vol 31 (16) ◽  
pp. 6245-6261 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. Coats ◽  
K. B. Karnauskas
Keyword(s):  
Twentieth Century ◽  
Wind Stress ◽  
Zonal Wind ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Equatorial Pacific ◽  
Systematic Bias ◽  
Equatorial Undercurrent ◽  
Zonal Wind Stress ◽  
Sst Gradient

Reconstructions of sea surface temperature (SST) based on instrumental observations suggest that the equatorial Pacific zonal SST gradient has increased over the twentieth century. While this increase is suggestive of the ocean dynamical thermostat mechanism of Clement et al., observations of a concurrent weakening of the zonal atmospheric (Walker) circulation are not. Here we show, using heat and momentum budget calculations on an ocean reanalysis dataset, that a seasonal weakening of the zonal atmospheric circulation is in fact consistent with cooling in the eastern equatorial Pacific (EEP) and thus an increase in the zonal SST gradient. This cooling is driven by a strengthening Equatorial Undercurrent (EUC) in response to decreased upper-ocean westward momentum associated with weakening equatorial zonal wind stress. This process can help to reconcile the seemingly contradictory twentieth-century trends in the tropical Pacific atmosphere and ocean. Moreover, it is shown that coupled general circulation models (CGCMs) do not correctly simulate this process; we identify a systematic bias in the relationship between changes in equatorial surface zonal wind stress in the EEP and EUC strength that may help to explain why observations and CGCMs have opposing trends in the zonal SST gradient over the twentieth century.

A Robust but Spurious Pattern of Climate Change in Model Projections over the Tropical Indian Ocean

2016 ◽  
Vol 29 (15) ◽  
pp. 5589-5608 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gen Li ◽  
Shang-Ping Xie ◽  
Yan Du
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Indian Ocean ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Equatorial Indian Ocean ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Model Errors ◽  
Ipcc Report ◽  
Warming Pattern ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Mean

Abstract Climate models consistently project reduced surface warming over the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean (IO) under increased greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing. This IO dipole (IOD)-like warming pattern, regarded as robust based on consistency among models by the new Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report, results in a large increase in the frequency of extreme positive IOD (pIOD) events, elevating the risk of climate and weather disasters in the future over IO rim countries. These projections, however, do not consider large model biases in both the mean state and interannual IOD variance. In particular, a “present–future relationship” is identified between the historical simulations and representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5 experiments from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) multimodel ensemble: models with an excessive IOD amplitude bias tend to project a strong IOD-like warming pattern in the mean and a large increase in extreme pIOD occurrences under increased GHG forcing. This relationship links the present simulation errors to future climate projections, and is also consistent with our understanding of Bjerknes ocean–atmosphere feedback. This study calibrates regional climate projections by using this present–future relationship and observed IOD amplitude. The results show that the projected IOD-like pattern of mean changes and frequency increase of extreme pIOD events are largely artifacts of model errors and unlikely to emerge in the future. These results illustrate that a robust projection may still be biased and it is important to consider the model bias effect.

scholarly journals Regions of intensification of extreme snowfall under future warming

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Lennart Quante ◽  
Sven N. Willner ◽  
Robin Middelanis ◽  
Anders Levermann
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Observational Data ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Hydrological Cycle ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Average Intensity ◽  
High Latitudes ◽  
Future Warming

AbstractDue to climate change the frequency and character of precipitation are changing as the hydrological cycle intensifies. With regards to snowfall, global warming has two opposing influences; increasing humidity enables intense snowfall, whereas higher temperatures decrease the likelihood of snowfall. Here we show an intensification of extreme snowfall across large areas of the Northern Hemisphere under future warming. This is robust across an ensemble of global climate models when they are bias-corrected with observational data. While mean daily snowfall decreases, both the 99th and the 99.9th percentiles of daily snowfall increase in many regions in the next decades, especially for Northern America and Asia. Additionally, the average intensity of snowfall events exceeding these percentiles as experienced historically increases in many regions. This is likely to pose a challenge to municipalities in mid to high latitudes. Overall, extreme snowfall events are likely to become an increasingly important impact of climate change in the next decades, even if they will become rarer, but not necessarily less intense, in the second half of the century.

scholarly journals Robust increase of Indian monsoon rainfall and its variability under future warming in CMIP-6 models

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anja Katzenberger ◽  
Jacob Schewe ◽  
Julia Pongratz ◽  
Anders Levermann
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Monsoon Rainfall ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Global Mean Temperature ◽  
Almost All

Abstract. The Indian summer monsoon is an integral part of the global climate system. As its seasonal rainfall plays a crucial role in India's agriculture and shapes many other aspects of life, it affects the livelihood of a fifth of the world's population. It is therefore highly relevant to assess its change under potential future climate change. Global climate models within the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP-5) indicated a consistent increase in monsoon rainfall and its variability under global warming. Since the range of the results of CMIP-5 was still large and the confidence in the models was limited due to partly poor representation of observed rainfall, the updates within the latest generation of climate models in CMIP-6 are of interest. Here, we analyse 32 models of the latest CMIP-6 exercise with regard to their annual mean monsoon rainfall and its variability. All of these models show a substantial increase in June-to-September (JJAS) mean rainfall under unabated climate change (SSP5-8.5) and most do also for the other three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways analyzed (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0). Moreover, the simulation ensemble indicates a linear dependence of rainfall on global mean temperature with high agreement between the models and independent of the SSP; the multi-model mean for JJAS projects an increase of 0.33 mm/day and 5.3 % per degree of global warming. This is significantly higher than in the CMIP-5 projections. Most models project that the increase will contribute to the precipitation especially in the Himalaya region and to the northeast of the Bay of Bengal, as well as the west coast of India. Interannual variability is found to be increasing in the higher-warming scenarios by almost all models. The CMIP-6 simulations largely confirm the findings from CMIP-5 models, but show an increased robustness across models with reduced uncertainties and updated magnitudes towards a stronger increase in monsoon rainfall.

scholarly journals Assessing the impact of global warming on worldwide open field tomato cultivation through CSIRO-Mk3·0 global climate model

2016 ◽  
Vol 155 (3) ◽  
pp. 407-420 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. S. SILVA ◽  
L. KUMAR ◽  
F. SHABANI ◽  
M. C. PICANÇO
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Open Field ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Current Model ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
The Impact

SUMMARYTomato (Solanum lycopersicum L.) is one of the most important vegetable crops globally and an important agricultural sector for generating employment. Open field cultivation of tomatoes exposes the crop to climatic conditions, whereas greenhouse production is protected. Hence, global warming will have a greater impact on open field cultivation of tomatoes rather than the controlled greenhouse environment. Although the scale of potential impacts is uncertain, there are techniques that can be implemented to predict these impacts. Global climate models (GCMs) are useful tools for the analysis of possible impacts on a species. The current study aims to determine the impacts of climate change and the major factors of abiotic stress that limit the open field cultivation of tomatoes in both the present and future, based on predicted global climate change using CLIMatic indEX and the A2 emissions scenario, together with the GCM Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO)-Mk3·0 (CS), for the years 2050 and 2100. The results indicate that large areas that currently have an optimum climate will become climatically marginal or unsuitable for open field cultivation of tomatoes due to progressively increasing heat and dry stress in the future. Conversely, large areas now marginal and unsuitable for open field cultivation of tomatoes will become suitable or optimal due to a decrease in cold stress. The current model may be useful for plant geneticists and horticulturalists who could develop new regional stress-resilient tomato cultivars based on needs related to these modelling projections.

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