scholarly journals Extreme precipitation on consecutive days occurs more often in a warming climate

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Extreme Precipitation ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Temporal Correlation ◽  
Global Scale ◽  
Precipitation Intensity ◽  
Warming Climate ◽  
Intensity Changes ◽  
Climate Model Simulations ◽  
Increasing Precipitation

Abstract Extreme precipitation occurring on consecutive days may substantially increase the risk of related impacts, but changes in such events have not been studied at a global scale. Here we use a unique global dataset based on in situ observations and multi-model historical and future simulations to analyse the changes in the frequency of extreme precipitation on consecutive days (EPCD). We further disentangle the relative contributions of variations in precipitation intensity and temporal correlation of extreme precipitation, to understand the processes that drive the changes in EPCD. Observations and climate model simulations show that the frequency of EPCD is increasing in most land regions, in particular in North America, Europe and the Northern Hemisphere high latitudes. These increases are primarily a consequence of increasing precipitation intensity, but changes in the temporal correlation of extreme precipitation regionally amplify or reduce the effects of intensity changes. Changes are larger in simulations with a stronger warming signal, suggesting that further increases in EPCD are expected for the future under continued climate warming.

scholarly journals Frequency of extreme precipitation increases extensively with event rareness under global warming

2019 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
G. Myhre ◽  
K. Alterskjær ◽  
C. W. Stjern ◽  
Ø. Hodnebrog ◽  
L. Marelle ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
Extreme Precipitation ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Total Precipitation ◽  
Extreme Precipitation Events ◽  
Intensity Changes ◽  
Climate Model Simulations ◽  
Event Based ◽  
Precipitation Events

Abstract The intensity of the heaviest extreme precipitation events is known to increase with global warming. How often such events occur in a warmer world is however less well established, and the combined effect of changes in frequency and intensity on the total amount of rain falling as extreme precipitation is much less explored, in spite of potentially large societal impacts. Here, we employ observations and climate model simulations to document strong increases in the frequencies of extreme precipitation events occurring on decadal timescales. Based on observations we find that the total precipitation from these intense events almost doubles per degree of warming, mainly due to changes in frequency, while the intensity changes are relatively weak, in accordance to previous studies. This shift towards stronger total precipitation from extreme events is seen in observations and climate models, and increases with the strength – and hence the rareness – of the event. Based on these results, we project that if historical trends continue, the most intense precipitation events observed today are likely to almost double in occurrence for each degree of further global warming. Changes to extreme precipitation of this magnitude are dramatically stronger than the more widely communicated changes to global mean precipitation.

scholarly journals Regional climate model simulations of North Atlantic cyclones: frequency and intensity changes

2008 ◽  
Vol 36 ◽  
pp. 1-16 ◽  
Author(s):  
T Semmler ◽  
S Varghese ◽  
R McGrath ◽  
P Nolan ◽  
S Wang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Regional Climate Model ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Model Simulations ◽  
Intensity Changes ◽  
Climate Model Simulations

scholarly journals Strong future increases in Arctic precipitation variability linked to poleward moisture transport

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Richard Bintanja ◽  
Karin van der Wiel ◽  
Eveline van der Linden ◽  
Jesse Reusen ◽  
Linda Bogerd ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Interannual Variability ◽  
Moisture Transport ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Arctic Region ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Climate Model Simulations ◽  
Mean Climate ◽  
Increasing Precipitation

<p>The Arctic region is projected to experience amplified warming as well as strongly increasing precipitation rates. Equally important to trends in the mean climate are changes in interannual variability, but changes in precipitation fluctuations are highly uncertain and the associated processes unknown. Here we use various state-of-the-art global climate model simulations to show that interannual variability of Arctic precipitation will likely increase markedly (up to 40% over the 21<sup>st</sup> century), especially in summer. This can be attributed to increased poleward atmospheric moisture transport variability associated with enhanced moisture content, possibly modulated by atmospheric dynamics. Because both the means and variability of Arctic precipitation will increase, years/seasons with excessive precipitation will occur more often, as will the associated impacts.</p>

Exposure analysis of Chinese railways under the Change of Extreme-Precipitation in the future

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jing Zhao ◽  
Kai liu ◽  
Ming Wang
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
Return Period ◽  
Extreme Precipitation ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Precipitation Amount ◽  
Extreme Rainfall ◽  
Railway Planning ◽  
The Future ◽  
Railway System ◽  
Climate Model Simulations

<p>Abstract: Rainfall-induced disaster is the most frequent disaster affected Chinese Railway System. Climate change will lead to more extreme rainfall in the future. A better understanding of extreme precipitation in the future and the exposure of railway infrastructures to extreme precipitation will facilitate railway planning and disaster risk management. This paper employs climate model simulations to calculate the changes of the extreme precipitation under different global warming scenarios. The return periods of the present 50-yr/100-yr return-period precipitation amount in the future are obtained. Based on this, the changes of the exposure of Chinese railways to extreme precipitation are analyzed. The results reveal that 58.61% (55.46) of China’s region will experience an increase in the 50-yr(100-yr) return-period precipitation under 1.5°C warming in comparison with the present period (2001–2020), the value will be 64.44% and 59.53% due to the additional 0.5°C warming. By calculating the exposure of Chinese railways, we found that 28.49% (32.15) of China's railways are in the region where 50-yr return-period rainfall at this stage will occur less than 20 years under 1.5°C (2.0°C) warming, and 36.85% (41.39)of China's railways are in the region where 100-yr return-period rainfall at this stage will occur less than 50 years under 1.5°C (2.0°C) warming in the future. This study quantified the exposure of China’s railway to extreme precipitation under the 1.5°C/2.0°C global warming. The results provided in this study have profound significance for the fortification planning of China's railway system for rainfall-induced disasters and provide useful experience for other countries.</p>

Issues in the interpretation of climate model ensembles to inform decisions

2007 ◽  
Vol 365 (1857) ◽  
pp. 2163-2177 ◽  
Author(s):  
David A Stainforth ◽  
Thomas E Downing ◽  
Richard Washington ◽  
Ana Lopez ◽  
Mark New
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Scale ◽  
Climate Modelling ◽  
Large Ensembles ◽  
Recent Developments ◽  
Climate Model Simulations ◽  
Model Ensembles ◽  
A Minor

There is a scientific consensus regarding the reality of anthropogenic climate change. This has led to substantial efforts to reduce atmospheric greenhouse gas emissions and thereby mitigate the impacts of climate change on a global scale. Despite these efforts, we are committed to substantial further changes over at least the next few decades. Societies will therefore have to adapt to changes in climate. Both adaptation and mitigation require action on scales ranging from local to global, but adaptation could directly benefit from climate predictions on regional scales while mitigation could be driven solely by awareness of the global problem; regional projections being principally of motivational value. We discuss how recent developments of large ensembles of climate model simulations can be interpreted to provide information on these scales and to inform societal decisions. Adaptation is most relevant as an influence on decisions which exist irrespective of climate change, but which have consequences on decadal time-scales. Even in such situations, climate change is often only a minor influence; perhaps helping to restrict the choice of ‘no regrets’ strategies. Nevertheless, if climate models are to provide inputs to societal decisions, it is important to interpret them appropriately. We take climate ensembles exploring model uncertainty as potentially providing a lower bound on the maximum range of uncertainty and thus a non-discountable climate change envelope. An analysis pathway is presented, describing how this information may provide an input to decisions, sometimes via a number of other analysis procedures and thus a cascade of uncertainty. An initial screening is seen as a valuable component of this process, potentially avoiding unnecessary effort while guiding decision makers through issues of confidence and robustness in climate modelling information. Our focus is the usage of decadal to centennial time-scale climate change simulations as inputs to decision making, but we acknowledge that robust adaptation to the variability of present day climate encourages the development of less vulnerable systems as well as building critical experience in how to respond to climatic uncertainty.

scholarly journals Expansion of global drylands under a warming climate

2013 ◽  
Vol 13 (19) ◽  
pp. 10081-10094 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. Feng ◽  
Q. Fu
Keyword(s):  
Southern Africa ◽  
Arid Regions ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Greenhouse Gas Emission ◽  
The North ◽  
Warming Climate ◽  
Climate Model Simulations ◽  
Northern Fringe ◽  
North And South America ◽  
North And South

Abstract. Global drylands encompassing hyper-arid, arid, semiarid, and dry subhumid areas cover about 41 percent of the earth's terrestrial surface and are home to more than a third of the world's population. By analyzing observations for 1948–2008 and climate model simulations for 1948–2100, we show that global drylands have expanded in the last sixty years and will continue to expand in the 21st~century. By the end of this century, the world's drylands (under a high greenhouse gas emission scenario) are projected to be 5.8 × 106 km2 (or 10%) larger than in the 1961–1990 climatology. The major expansion of arid regions will occur over southwest North America, the northern fringe of Africa, southern Africa, and Australia, while major expansions of semiarid regions will occur over the north side of the Mediterranean, southern Africa, and North and South America. The global dryland expansions will increase the population affected by water scarcity and land degradations.

scholarly journals Influence of biomass aerosol on precipitation over the Central Amazon: an observational study

2015 ◽  
Vol 15 (12) ◽  
pp. 6789-6800 ◽  
Author(s):  
W. A. Gonçalves ◽  
L. A. T. Machado ◽  
P.-E. Kirstetter
Keyword(s):  
Biomass Burning ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Biomass Burning Aerosol ◽  
Radar Measurements ◽  
Climate Model Simulations ◽  
Ice Content

Abstract. Understanding the influence of biomass burning aerosol on clouds and precipitation in the Amazon is key to reducing uncertainties in simulations of climate change scenarios with regard to deforestation fires. Here, we associate rainfall characteristics obtained from an S-band radar in the Amazon with in situ measurements of biomass burning aerosol for the entire year of 2009. The most important results were obtained during the dry season (July–December). The results indicate that the influence of aerosol on precipitating systems is modulated by the atmospheric degree of instability. For less unstable atmospheres, the higher the aerosol concentration is, the lower the precipitation is over the region. In contrast, for more unstable cases, higher concentrations of black carbon are associated with greater precipitation, increased ice content, and larger rain cells; this finding suggests an association with long-lived systems. The results presented are statistically significant. However, due to limitations imposed by the available data set, important features, such as the contribution of each mechanism to the rainfall suppression, need further investigation. Regional climate model simulations with aircraft and radar measurements would help clarify these questions.

scholarly journals Strong future increases in Arctic precipitation variability linked to poleward moisture transport

2020 ◽  
Vol 6 (7) ◽  
pp. eaax6869 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. Bintanja ◽  
K. van der Wiel ◽  
E. C. van der Linden ◽  
J. Reusen ◽  
L. Bogerd ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Interannual Variability ◽  
Moisture Transport ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Arctic Region ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Climate Model Simulations ◽  
Mean Climate ◽  
Increasing Precipitation

The Arctic region is projected to experience amplified warming as well as strongly increasing precipitation rates. Equally important to trends in the mean climate are changes in interannual variability, but changes in precipitation fluctuations are highly uncertain and the associated processes are unknown. Here, we use various state-of-the-art global climate model simulations to show that interannual variability of Arctic precipitation will likely increase markedly (up to 40% over the 21st century), especially in summer. This can be attributed to increased poleward atmospheric moisture transport variability associated with enhanced moisture content, possibly modulated by atmospheric dynamics. Because both the means and variability of Arctic precipitation will increase, years/seasons with excessive precipitation will occur more often, as will the associated impacts.

scholarly journals Return levels of sub-daily extreme precipitation over Europe

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Benjamin Poschlod ◽  
Ralf Ludwig ◽  
Jana Sillmann
Keyword(s):  
Observational Data ◽  
Extreme Precipitation ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Internal Variability ◽  
Return Level ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Model Simulations ◽  
Return Levels ◽  
Climate Model Simulations ◽  
Precipitation Events

Abstract. Information on the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation is required by public authorities, civil security departments and engineers for the design of buildings and the dimensioning of water management and drainage schemes. Especially for sub-daily resolution, at which many extreme precipitation events occur, the observational data are sparse in space and time, distributed heterogeneously over Europe and often not publicly available. We therefore consider it necessary to provide an impact-orientated data set of 10-year rainfall return levels over Europe based on climate model simulations and evaluate its quality. Hence, to standardize procedures and provide comparable results, we apply a high-resolution single-model large ensemble (SMILE) of the Canadian Regional Climate Model version 5 (CRCM5) with 50 members in order to assess the frequency of heavy precipitation events over Europe between 1980 and 2009. The application of a SMILE enables a robust estimation of extreme rainfall return levels with the 50 members of 30-year climate simulations providing 1500 years of rainfall data. As the 50 members only differ due to the internal variability of the climate system, the impact of internal variability on the return level values can be quantified. We present 10-year rainfall return levels of hourly to 24-hourly duration with a spatial resolution of 0.11° (12.5 km), which are compared to a large data set of observation-based rainfall return levels of 16 European countries. This observation-based data set was newly compiled and homogenized for this study from 32 different sources. The rainfall return levels of the CRCM5 are able to reproduce the general spatial pattern of extreme precipitation for all sub-daily durations with centred Pearson product-moment coefficients of linear correlation > 0.7 for the area covered with observations. Also, the rainfall intensity of the observational data set is in the range of the climate model generated intensities in 52 % (77 %, 79 %, 84 %, 78 %) of the area for hourly (3-hourly, 6-hourly, 12-hourly, 24-hourly) durations. This results in biases between −19.3 % (hourly) to +8.0 % (24-hourly) averaged over the study area. The range, which is introduced by the application of 50 members, shows a spread of −15 % to +18 % around the median. We conclude that our data set shows good agreement with the observations for 3-hourly to 24-hourly durations in large parts of the study area. Though, for hourly duration and topographically complex regions such as the Alps and Norway, we argue that higher-resolution climate model simulations are needed to improve the results. The 10-year return level data are publicly available (Poschlod, 2020; https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3878887).

scholarly journals Sensitivities of Extreme Precipitation to Global Warming Are Lower over Mountains than over Oceans and Plains

2016 ◽  
Vol 29 (13) ◽  
pp. 4779-4791 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiaoming Shi ◽  
Dale Durran
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
Extreme Precipitation ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Static Stability ◽  
Induced Response ◽  
Model Simulations ◽  
Fractional Rate ◽  
Rate Of Increase ◽  
Climate Model Simulations ◽  
Almost All

Abstract Climate-model simulations predict an intensification of extreme precipitation in almost all areas of the world under global warming. Local variations in the magnitude of this intensification are evident in these simulations, but most previous efforts to understand the factors responsible for the changes in extreme precipitation focused on zonal averages and neglected zonal variations, leading to uncertainties in the understanding and estimation of regional responses. Here the spatial heterogeneity of the warming-induced response of midlatitude extreme precipitation is studied in climate-model simulations with idealized orography on the western margins of otherwise flat continents. It is shown that the sensitivity of extreme precipitation to warming (i.e., its fractional rate of increase in intensity with global-mean surface temperature) is ~3% K−1 lower over the mountains than the oceans and plains. This difference in sensitivity is primarily produced by differences in the dynamics governing vertical ascent over the three regions. In these extreme events, mountain-wave dynamics control the moist ascent over the mountains, and the sensitivity of this ascent to global warming is mainly controlled by changes in upper-level dry static stability and the cross-mountain winds. In contrast, midlatitude cyclone dynamics govern moist ascent over the oceans and plains. Ascending motions in intense midlatitude cyclones are sensitive to the ratio of the moist static stability in their saturated cores to the dry stability in surrounding regions. This ratio decreases in the warmer world, intensifying the maximum vertical velocities while reducing the horizontal extent of the regions of the rising air within the cyclone.

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