scholarly journals Robust Seasonality of Arctic Warming Processes in Two Different Versions of the MIROC GCM

2014 ◽  
Vol 27 (16) ◽  
pp. 6358-6375 ◽  
Author(s):  
Masakazu Yoshimori ◽  
Ayako Abe-Ouchi ◽  
Masahiro Watanabe ◽  
Akira Oka ◽  
Tomoo Ogura
Keyword(s):  
Climate Models ◽  
Co2 Concentration ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Ocean Heat Uptake ◽  
Arctic Warming ◽  
Surface Warming ◽  
Relative Contribution ◽  
Heat Uptake ◽  
Balance Analysis ◽  
The Difference

Abstract It is one of the most robust projected responses of climate models to the increase of atmospheric CO2 concentration that the Arctic experiences a rapid warming with a magnitude larger than the rest of the world. While many processes are proposed as important, the relative contribution of individual processes to the Arctic warming is not often investigated systematically. Feedbacks are quantified in two different versions of an atmosphere–ocean GCM under idealized transient experiments based on an energy balance analysis that extends from the surface to the top of the atmosphere. The emphasis is placed on the largest warming from late autumn to early winter (October–December) and the difference from other seasons. It is confirmed that dominating processes vary with season. In autumn, the largest contribution to the Arctic surface warming is made by a reduction of ocean heat storage and cloud radiative feedback. In the annual mean, on the other hand, it is the albedo feedback that contributes the most, with increasing ocean heat uptake to the deeper layers working as a negative feedback. While the qualitative results are robust between the two models, they differ quantitatively, indicating the need for further constraint on each process. Ocean heat uptake, lower tropospheric stability, and low-level cloud response probably require special attention.

Importance of Ocean Heat Uptake Efficacy to Transient Climate Change

2010 ◽  
Vol 23 (9) ◽  
pp. 2333-2344 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael Winton ◽  
Ken Takahashi ◽  
Isaac M. Held
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Balance Model ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
Ocean Heat Uptake ◽  
Transient Climate Response ◽  
Surface Warming ◽  
Global Mean Temperature ◽  
Heat Uptake

Abstract This article proposes a modification to the standard forcing–feedback diagnostic energy balance model to account for 1) differences between effective and equilibrium climate sensitivities and 2) the variation of effective sensitivity over time in climate change experiments with coupled atmosphere–ocean climate models. In the spirit of Hansen et al. an efficacy factor is applied to the ocean heat uptake. Comparing the time evolution of the surface warming in high and low efficacy models demonstrates the role of this efficacy in the transient response to CO2 forcing. Abrupt CO2 increase experiments show that the large efficacy of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory’s Climate Model version 2.1 (CM2.1) sets up in the first two decades following the increase in forcing. The use of an efficacy is necessary to fit this model’s global mean temperature evolution in periods with both increasing and stable forcing. The intermodel correlation of transient climate response with ocean heat uptake efficacy is greater than its correlation with equilibrium climate sensitivity in an ensemble of climate models used for the third and fourth Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessments. When computed at the time of doubling in the standard experiment with 1% yr−1 increase in CO2, the efficacy is variable amongst the models but is generally greater than 1, averages between 1.3 and 1.4, and is as large as 1.75 in several models.

Origin of the Arctic warming in climate models

2011 ◽  
Vol 38 (21) ◽  
pp. n/a-n/a ◽  
Author(s):  
Chul E. Chung ◽  
Petri Räisänen
Keyword(s):  
Climate Models ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Arctic Warming

scholarly journals Sensitivity of Global Warming to Carbon Emissions: Effects of Heat and Carbon Uptake in a Suite of Earth System Models

2017 ◽  
Vol 30 (23) ◽  
pp. 9343-9363 ◽  
Author(s):  
Richard G. Williams ◽  
Vassil Roussenov ◽  
Philip Goodwin ◽  
Laure Resplandy ◽  
Laurent Bopp
Keyword(s):  
Climate Sensitivity ◽  
Carbon Emissions ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Carbon Uptake ◽  
Earth System ◽  
Ocean Heat Uptake ◽  
Surface Warming ◽  
System Models ◽  
Heat Uptake ◽  
Earth System Models

Climate projections reveal global-mean surface warming increasing nearly linearly with cumulative carbon emissions. The sensitivity of surface warming to carbon emissions is interpreted in terms of a product of three terms: the dependence of surface warming on radiative forcing, the fractional radiative forcing from CO2, and the dependence of radiative forcing from CO2 on carbon emissions. Mechanistically each term varies, respectively, with climate sensitivity and ocean heat uptake, radiative forcing contributions, and ocean and terrestrial carbon uptake. The sensitivity of surface warming to fossil-fuel carbon emissions is examined using an ensemble of Earth system models, forced either by an annual increase in atmospheric CO2 or by RCPs until year 2100. The sensitivity of surface warming to carbon emissions is controlled by a temporal decrease in the dependence of radiative forcing from CO2 on carbon emissions, which is partly offset by a temporal increase in the dependence of surface warming on radiative forcing. The decrease in the dependence of radiative forcing from CO2 is due to a decline in the ratio of the global ocean carbon undersaturation to carbon emissions, while the increase in the dependence of surface warming is due to a decline in the ratio of ocean heat uptake to radiative forcing. At the present time, there are large intermodel differences in the sensitivity in surface warming to carbon emissions, which are mainly due to uncertainties in the climate sensitivity and ocean heat uptake. These uncertainties undermine the ability to predict how much carbon may be emitted before reaching a warming target.

scholarly journals CMIP5 Projections of Arctic Amplification, of the North American/North Atlantic Circulation, and of Their Relationship

2015 ◽  
Vol 28 (13) ◽  
pp. 5254-5271 ◽  
Author(s):  
Elizabeth A. Barnes ◽  
Lorenzo M. Polvani
Keyword(s):  
North Atlantic ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Arctic Region ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Cmip5 Models ◽  
Arctic Amplification ◽  
Arctic Warming ◽  
The North ◽  
Sequence Of Events

Abstract Recent studies have hypothesized that Arctic amplification, the enhanced warming of the Arctic region compared to the rest of the globe, will cause changes in midlatitude weather over the twenty-first century. This study exploits the recently completed phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) and examines 27 state-of-the-art climate models to determine if their projected changes in the midlatitude circulation are consistent with the hypothesized impact of Arctic amplification over North America and the North Atlantic. Under the largest future greenhouse forcing (RCP8.5), it is found that every model, in every season, exhibits Arctic amplification by 2100. At the same time, the projected circulation responses are either opposite in sign to those hypothesized or too widely spread among the models to discern any robust change. However, in a few seasons and for some of the circulation metrics examined, correlations are found between the model spread in Arctic amplification and the model spread in the projected circulation changes. Therefore, while the CMIP5 models offer some evidence that future Arctic warming may be able to modulate some aspects of the midlatitude circulation response in some seasons, the analysis herein leads to the conclusion that the net circulation response in the future is unlikely to be determined solely—or even primarily—by Arctic warming according to the sequence of events recently hypothesized.

Northern High-Latitude Heat Budget Decomposition and Transient Warming

2013 ◽  
Vol 26 (2) ◽  
pp. 609-621 ◽  
Author(s):  
Maria A. A. Rugenstein ◽  
Michael Winton ◽  
Ronald J. Stouffer ◽  
Stephen M. Griffies ◽  
Robert Hallberg
Keyword(s):  
Heat Transport ◽  
High Latitude ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Heat Budget ◽  
Meridional Overturning Circulation ◽  
Global Ocean ◽  
Ocean Heat Uptake ◽  
Control Climate ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Heat Uptake

Abstract Climate models simulate a wide range of climate changes at high northern latitudes in response to increased CO2. They also have substantial disagreement on projected changes of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC). Here, two pairs of closely related climate models are used, with each containing members with large and small AMOC declines to explore the influence of AMOC decline on the high-latitude response to increased CO2. The models with larger AMOC decline have less high-latitude warming and sea ice decline than their small AMOC decline counterpart. By examining differences in the perturbation heat budget of the 40°–90°N region, it is shown that AMOC decline diminishes the warming by weakening poleward ocean heat transport and increasing the ocean heat uptake. The cooling impact of this AMOC-forced surface heat flux perturbation difference is enhanced by shortwave feedback and diminished by longwave feedback and atmospheric heat transport differences. The magnitude of the AMOC decline within model pairs is positively related to the magnitudes of control climate AMOC and Labrador and Nordic Seas convection. Because the 40°–90°N region accounts for up to 40% of the simulated global ocean heat uptake over 100 yr, the process described here influences the global heat uptake efficiency.

scholarly journals Aggregate-area radiative flux biases

2002 ◽  
Vol 34 ◽  
pp. 101-105 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xuanji Wang ◽  
Jeffrey R. Key
Keyword(s):  
High Resolution ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Heat Budget ◽  
Numerical Models ◽  
Radiative Flux ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Radiative Fluxes ◽  
Cloud Properties ◽  
Model Cell ◽  
The Difference

AbstractMost climate models treat surface and atmospheric properties as being horizontally homogeneous and compute surface radiative fluxes with average gridcell properties. In this study it is found that large biases can occur if sub-gridcell variability is ignored, where bias is defined as the difference between the average of fluxes computed at high resolution within a model cell and the flux computed with the average surface and cloud properties within the cell. Data from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer for the year-long Surface Heat Budget of the Arctic Ocean (SHEBA) experiment are used to determine biases in aggregate-area fluxes. A simple regression approach to correct for biases that result from horizontal variability was found to reduce the average radiative flux bias to near zero. The correction can be easily implemented in numerical models.

scholarly journals Evaluation of Arctic warming in mid-Pliocene climate simulations

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wesley de Nooijer ◽  
Qiong Zhang ◽  
Qiang Li ◽  
Qiang Zhang ◽  
Xiangyu Li ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Sea Ice Extent ◽  
Current Form ◽  
Arctic Warming ◽  
Amplification Ratio ◽  
Climate Simulations

Abstract. Palaeoclimate simulations improve our understanding of the climate, inform us about the performance of climate models in a different climate scenario, and help to identify robust features of the climate system. Here, we analyse Arctic warming in an ensemble of 16 simulations of the mid-Pliocene Warm Period (mPWP), derived from the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2 (PlioMIP2). The PlioMIP2 ensemble simulates Arctic (60–90° N) annual mean surface air temperature (SAT) increases of 3.7 to 11.6 °C compared to the pre-industrial, with a multi-model mean (MMM) increase of 7.2 °C. The Arctic warming amplification ratio relative to global SAT anomalies in the ensemble ranges from 1.8 to 3.1 (MMM is 2.3). Sea ice extent anomalies range from −3.0 to −10.4 × 06 km2 with a MMM anomaly of −5.6 × 106 km2, which constitutes a decrease of 53 % compared to the pre-industrial. The majority (11 out of 16) models simulate summer sea ice-free conditions (≤ 1 × 06 km2) in their mPWP simulation. The ensemble tends to underestimate SAT in the Arctic when compared to available reconstructions. The simulations with the highest Arctic SAT anomalies tend to match the proxy dataset in its current form better. The ensemble shows some agreement with reconstructions of sea ice, particularly with regards to seasonal sea ice. Large uncertainties limit the confidence that can be placed in the findings and the compatibility of the different proxy datasets. We show that, while reducing uncertainties in the reconstructions could decrease the SAT data-model discord substantially, further improvements are likely to be found in enhanced boundary conditions or model physics. Lastly, we compare the Arctic warming in the mPWP to projections of future Arctic warming and find that the PlioMIP2 ensemble simulates greater Arctic amplification, an increase instead of a decrease in AMOC strength compared to pre-industrial, and a lesser strengthening of northern modes of variability than CMIP5 future climate simulations. The results highlight the importance of slow feedbacks in equilibrium climate simulations, and that caution must be taken when using simulations of the mPWP as an analogue for future climate change.

scholarly journals The Emergence and Transient Nature of Arctic Amplification in Coupled Climate Models

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marika M. Holland ◽  
Laura Landrum
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
21St Century ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Internal Variability ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Arctic Amplification ◽  
Arctic Warming ◽  
Transient Nature ◽  
Coupled Climate Models ◽  
Large Ensembles

Under rising atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations, the Arctic exhibits amplified warming relative to the globe. This Arctic amplification is a defining feature of global warming. However, the Arctic is also home to large internal variability, which can make the detection of a forced climate response difficult. Here we use results from seven model large ensembles, which have different rates of Arctic warming and sea ice loss, to assess the time of emergence of anthropogenically-forced Arctic amplification. We find that this time of emergence occurs at the turn of the century in all models, ranging across the models by a decade from 1994–2005. We also assess transient changes in this amplified signal across the 21st century and beyond. Over the 21st century, the projections indicate that the maximum Arctic warming will transition from fall to winter due to sea ice reductions that extend further into the fall. Additionally, the magnitude of the annual amplification signal declines over the 21st century associated in part with a weakening albedo feedback strength. In a simulation that extends to the 23rd century, we find that as sea ice cover is completely lost, there is little further reduction in the surface albedo and Arctic amplification saturates at a level that is reduced from its 21st century value.

scholarly journals Radiative Effect of Clouds at Ny-Ålesund, Svalbard, as Inferred from Ground-Based Remote Sensing Observations

2020 ◽  
Vol 59 (1) ◽  
pp. 3-22 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kerstin Ebell ◽  
Tatiana Nomokonova ◽  
Marion Maturilli ◽  
Christoph Ritter
Keyword(s):  
Remote Sensing ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Radiative Effect ◽  
Liquid Water Path ◽  
Ice Clouds ◽  
Surface Warming ◽  
Clear Sky ◽  
Cloud Properties ◽  
Cloud Radiative Effect ◽  
The Difference

AbstractFor the first time, the cloud radiative effect (CRE) has been characterized for the Arctic site Ny-Ålesund, Svalbard, Norway, including more than 2 years of data (June 2016–September 2018). The cloud radiative effect, that is, the difference between the all-sky and equivalent clear-sky net radiative fluxes, has been derived based on a combination of ground-based remote sensing observations of cloud properties and the application of broadband radiative transfer simulations. The simulated fluxes have been evaluated in terms of a radiative closure study. Good agreement with observed surface net shortwave (SW) and longwave (LW) fluxes has been found, with small biases for clear-sky (SW: 3.8 W m−2; LW: −4.9 W m−2) and all-sky (SW: −5.4 W m−2; LW: −0.2 W m−2) situations. For monthly averages, uncertainties in the CRE are estimated to be small (~2 W m−2). At Ny-Ålesund, the monthly net surface CRE is positive from September to April/May and negative in summer. The annual surface warming effect by clouds is 11.1 W m−2. The longwave surface CRE of liquid-containing cloud is mainly driven by liquid water path (LWP) with an asymptote value of 75 W m−2 for large LWP values. The shortwave surface CRE can largely be explained by LWP, solar zenith angle, and surface albedo. Liquid-containing clouds (LWP > 5 g m−2) clearly contribute most to the shortwave surface CRE (70%–98%) and, from late spring to autumn, also to the longwave surface CRE (up to 95%). Only in winter are ice clouds (IWP > 0 g m−2; LWP < 5 g m−2) equally important or even dominating the signal in the longwave surface CRE.

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