scholarly journals Physical Mechanisms of Tropical Climate Feedbacks Investigated Using Temperature and Moisture Trends*

2015 ◽  
Vol 28 (22) ◽  
pp. 8968-8987 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. J. Ferraro ◽  
F. H. Lambert ◽  
M. Collins ◽  
G. M. Miles
Keyword(s):  
Water Vapor ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Tropical Climate ◽  
Lapse Rate ◽  
Climate Feedback ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Tropospheric Temperature ◽  
Regional Pattern ◽  
Rate Feedback ◽  
Water Vapor Feedback

Abstract Tropical climate feedback mechanisms are assessed using satellite-observed and model-simulated trends in tropical tropospheric temperature from the MSU/AMSU instruments and upper-tropospheric humidity from the HIRS instruments. Despite discrepancies in the rates of tropospheric warming between observations and models, both are consistent with constant relative humidity over the period 1979–2008. Because uncertainties in satellite-observed tropical-mean trends preclude a constraint on tropical-mean trends in models regional features of the feedbacks are also explored. The regional pattern of the lapse rate feedback is primarily determined by the regional pattern of surface temperature changes, as tropical atmospheric warming is relatively horizontally uniform. The regional pattern of the water vapor feedback is influenced by the regional pattern of precipitation changes, with variations of 1–2 W m−2 K−1 across the tropics (compared to a tropical-mean feedback magnitude of 3.3–4 W m−2 K−1). Thus the geographical patterns of water vapor and lapse rate feedbacks are not correlated, but when the feedbacks are calculated in precipitation percentiles rather than in geographical space they are anticorrelated, with strong positive water vapor feedback associated with strong negative lapse rate feedback. The regional structure of the feedbacks is not related to the strength of the tropical-mean feedback in a subset of the climate models from the CMIP5 archive. Nevertheless the approach constitutes a useful process-based test of climate models and has the potential to be extended to constrain regional climate projections.

scholarly journals An Assessment of the Primary Sources of Spread of Global Warming Estimates from Coupled Atmosphere–Ocean Models

2008 ◽  
Vol 21 (19) ◽  
pp. 5135-5144 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jean-Louis Dufresne ◽  
Sandrine Bony
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
Water Vapor ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Lapse Rate ◽  
Climate Feedback ◽  
Ocean Heat Uptake ◽  
Feedback Analysis ◽  
Cloud Feedbacks ◽  
Rate Feedback ◽  
Heat Uptake

Abstract Climate feedback analysis constitutes a useful framework for comparing the global mean surface temperature responses to an external forcing predicted by general circulation models (GCMs). Nevertheless, the contributions of the different radiative feedbacks to global warming (in equilibrium or transient conditions) and their comparison with the contribution of other processes (e.g., the ocean heat uptake) have not been quantified explicitly. Here these contributions from the classical feedback analysis framework are defined and quantified for an ensemble of 12 third phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3)/Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) coupled atmosphere–ocean GCMs. In transient simulations, the multimodel mean contributions to global warming associated with the combined water vapor–lapse-rate feedback, cloud feedback, and ocean heat uptake are comparable. However, intermodel differences in cloud feedbacks constitute by far the most primary source of spread of both equilibrium and transient climate responses simulated by GCMs. The spread associated with intermodel differences in cloud feedbacks appears to be roughly 3 times larger than that associated either with the combined water vapor–lapse-rate feedback, the ocean heat uptake, or the radiative forcing.

scholarly journals A Comparison of Climate Feedback Strength between CO2 Doubling and LGM Experiments

2009 ◽  
Vol 22 (12) ◽  
pp. 3374-3395 ◽  
Author(s):  
Masakazu Yoshimori ◽  
Tokuta Yokohata ◽  
Ayako Abe-Ouchi
Keyword(s):  
Water Vapor ◽  
Climate Sensitivity ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Lapse Rate ◽  
Climate Feedback ◽  
Water Vapor Feedback ◽  
Feedback Strength ◽  
Significant Difference ◽  
The Difference

Abstract Studies of the climate in the past potentially provide a constraint on the uncertainty of climate sensitivity, but previous studies warn against a simple scaling to the future. Climate sensitivity is determined by a number of feedback processes, and they may vary according to climate states and forcings. In this study, the similarities and differences in feedbacks for CO2 doubling, a Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), and LGM greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing experiments are investigated using an atmospheric general circulation model coupled to a slab ocean model. After computing the radiative forcing, the individual feedback strengths of water vapor, lapse-rate, albedo, and cloud feedbacks are evaluated explicitly. For this particular model, the difference in the climate sensitivity between the experiments is attributed to the shortwave cloud feedback, in which there is a tendency for it to become weaker or even negative in cooling experiments. No significant difference is found in the water vapor feedback between warming and cooling experiments by GHGs. The weaker positive water vapor feedback in the LGM experiment resulting from a relatively weaker tropical forcing is compensated for by the stronger positive lapse-rate feedback resulting from a relatively stronger extratropical forcing. A hypothesis is proposed that explains the asymmetric cloud response between the warming and cooling experiments associated with a displacement of the region of mixed-phase clouds. The difference in the total feedback strength between the experiments is, however, relatively small compared to the current intermodel spread, and does not necessarily preclude the use of LGM climate as a future constraint.

Radiative feedbacks in a 1D radiative-convective equilibrium model

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lukas Kluft ◽  
Sally Dacie ◽  
Stefan A. Buehler ◽  
Hauke Schmidt ◽  
Bjorn Stevens
Keyword(s):  
Water Vapor ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Lapse Rate ◽  
Transfer Model ◽  
Electromagnetic Spectrum ◽  
Optical Parameters ◽  
Climate Modelling ◽  
Rate Feedback ◽  
Radiative Feedbacks ◽  
Radiation Scheme

<p><span>Equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS), the change in surface temperature in response to a doubling of atmospheric CO2, is arguably one of the most important quantities when discussing climate change. Despite major improvements in climate modelling over the last decades, ECS estimates lie within a rather constant range between 1.5-4 K. The cause of this spread is not obvious as the comparison of comprehensive climate models is difficult due to the complexity of their formulations.</span></p><p> </p><p><span>We are revisiting one of the simplest climate models, one-dimensional radiative-convective equilibrium (RCE). Despite their simple and concise model formulation, RCE models include the most dominant clear-sky radiative feedbacks. In our study, we quantify the strength of the Planck, water-vapor, and lapse-rate feedback by turning them on or off using different model configurations. This method allows us to compare the effect of different model assumptions, e.g. the vertical distribution of water vapor, on the decomposed radiative feedbacks. We find that the interplay of the water-vapor and the lapse-rate feedback is especially affected by the relative humidity in the upper troposphere.</span></p><p> </p><p><span>The RCE model is run with a state-of-the-art radiation scheme, that is also used in comprehensive<span>  </span>Earth system models. A line-by-line radiative transfer model is used to both verify the performance of the fast radiation scheme, and to attribute changes in the radiative feedbacks to specific regions in the electromagnetic spectrum.</span></p><p> </p><p><span>In a further step, conceptual rectangular clouds are added to investigate possible cloud masking effects on both the radiative forcing and feedback. A large Monte Carlo ensemble is used to tune the cloud optical parameters in a way that the resulting cloud radiative effect matches satellite observations. Preliminary results suggest a near zero long-wave feedback, in contrast to previous studies.</span></p>

scholarly journals Estimates of the Water Vapor Climate Feedback during El Niño–Southern Oscillation

2009 ◽  
Vol 22 (23) ◽  
pp. 6404-6412 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. E. Dessler ◽  
S. Wong
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
Water Vapor ◽  
El Niño ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Specific Humidity ◽  
El Niño Southern Oscillation ◽  
El Nino Southern Oscillation ◽  
Water Vapor Feedback

Abstract The strength of the water vapor feedback has been estimated by analyzing the changes in tropospheric specific humidity during El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycles. This analysis is done in climate models driven by observed sea surface temperatures [Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) runs], preindustrial runs of fully coupled climate models, and in two reanalysis products, the 40-yr European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Re-Analysis (ERA-40) and the NASA Modern Era Retrospective-Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA). The water vapor feedback during ENSO-driven climate variations in the AMIP models ranges from 1.9 to 3.7 W m−2 K−1, in the control runs it ranges from 1.4 to 3.9 W m−2 K−1, and in the ERA-40 and MERRA it is 3.7 and 4.7 W m−2 K−1, respectively. Taken as a group, these values are higher than previous estimates of the water vapor feedback in response to century-long global warming. Also examined is the reason for the large spread in the ENSO-driven water vapor feedback among the models and between the models and the reanalyses. The models and the reanalyses show a consistent relationship between the variations in the tropical surface temperature over an ENSO cycle and the radiative response to the associated changes in specific humidity. However, the feedback is defined as the ratio of the radiative response to the change in the global average temperature. Differences in extratropical temperatures will, therefore, lead to different inferred feedbacks, and this is the root cause of spread in feedbacks observed here. This is also the likely reason that the feedback inferred from ENSO is larger than for long-term global warming.

scholarly journals Changes in Local and Global Climate Feedbacks in the Absence of Interactive Clouds: Southern Ocean–Climate Interactions in Two Intermediate-Complexity Models

2021 ◽  
Vol 34 (2) ◽  
pp. 755-772
Author(s):  
Patrik L. Pfister ◽  
Thomas F. Stocker
Keyword(s):  
Southern Ocean ◽  
Sea Ice ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Lapse Rate ◽  
Climate Feedback ◽  
Ocean Heat Uptake ◽  
Albedo Feedback ◽  
Intermediate Complexity ◽  
Global Mean ◽  
Over Time

AbstractThe global-mean climate feedback quantifies how much the climate system will warm in response to a forcing such as increased CO2 concentration. Under a constant forcing, this feedback becomes less negative (increasing) over time in comprehensive climate models, which has been attributed to increases in cloud and lapse-rate feedbacks. However, out of eight Earth system models of intermediate complexity (EMICs) not featuring interactive clouds, two also simulate such a feedback increase: Bern3D-LPX and LOVECLIM. Using these two models, we investigate the causes of the global-mean feedback increase in the absence of cloud feedbacks. In both models, the increase is predominantly driven by processes in the Southern Ocean region. In LOVECLIM, the global-mean increase is mainly due to a local longwave feedback increase in that region, which can be attributed to lapse-rate changes. It is enhanced by the slow atmospheric warming above the Southern Ocean, which is delayed due to regional ocean heat uptake. In Bern3D-LPX, this delayed regional warming is the main driver of the global-mean feedback increase. It acts on a near-constant local feedback pattern mainly determined by the sea ice–albedo feedback. The global-mean feedback increase is limited by the availability of sea ice: faster Southern Ocean sea ice melting due to either stronger forcing or higher equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) reduces the increase of the global mean feedback in Bern3D-LPX. In the highest-ECS simulation with 4 × CO2 forcing, the feedback even becomes more negative (decreasing) over time. This reduced ice–albedo feedback due to sea ice depletion is a plausible mechanism for a decreasing feedback also in high-forcing simulations of other models.

scholarly journals The lightness of water vapor helps to stabilize tropical climate

2020 ◽  
Vol 6 (19) ◽  
pp. eaba1951 ◽  
Author(s):  
Seth D. Seidel ◽  
Da Yang
Keyword(s):  
Water Vapor ◽  
Longwave Radiation ◽  
Tropical Climate ◽  
Climate Feedback ◽  
Tropical Atmosphere ◽  
Radiative Effect ◽  
Buoyancy Effect ◽  
Moist Air ◽  
Dry Air ◽  
Earth’S Climate

Moist air is lighter than dry air at the same temperature, pressure, and volume because the molecular weight of water is less than that of dry air. We call this the vapor buoyancy effect. Although this effect is well documented, its impact on Earth’s climate has been overlooked. Here, we show that the lightness of water vapor helps to stabilize tropical climate by increasing the outgoing longwave radiation (OLR). In the tropical atmosphere, buoyancy is horizontally uniform. Then, the vapor buoyancy in the moist regions must be balanced by warmer temperatures in the dry regions of the tropical atmosphere. These higher temperatures increase tropical OLR. This radiative effect increases with warming, leading to a negative climate feedback. At a near present-day surface temperature, vapor buoyancy is responsible for a radiative effect of 1 W/m2 and a negative climate feedback of about 0.15 W/m2 per kelvin.

Robustness of Dynamical Feedbacks from Radiative Forcing: 2% Solar versus 2 × CO2 Experiments in an Idealized GCM

2012 ◽  
Vol 69 (7) ◽  
pp. 2256-2271 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ming Cai ◽  
Ka-Kit Tung
Keyword(s):  
Water Vapor ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Lower Troposphere ◽  
Radiative Heating ◽  
Climate Feedback ◽  
Response Analysis ◽  
High Latitudes ◽  
Water Vapor Feedback ◽  
The Tropics ◽  
Heating Profile

Abstract Despite the differences in the spatial patterns of the external forcing associated with a doubling CO2 and with a 2% solar variability, the final responses in the troposphere and at the surface in a three-dimensional general circulation model appear remarkably similar. Various feedback processes are diagnosed and compared using the climate feedback–response analysis method (CFRAM) to understand the mechanisms responsible. At the surface, solar radiative forcing is stronger in the tropics than at the high latitudes, whereas greenhouse radiative forcing is stronger at high latitudes compared with the tropics. Also solar forcing is positive everywhere in the troposphere and greenhouse radiative forcing is positive mainly in the lower troposphere. The water vapor feedback strengthens the upward-decreasing radiative heating profile in the tropics and the poleward-decreasing radiative heating profile in the lower troposphere. The “evaporative” and convective feedbacks play an important role only in the tropics where they act to reduce the warming at the surface and lower troposphere in favor of upper-troposphere warming. Both water vapor feedback and enhancement of convection in the tropics further strengthen the initial poleward-decreasing profile of energy flux convergence perturbations throughout the troposphere. As a result, the large-scale dynamical poleward energy transport, which acts on the negative temperature gradient, is enhanced in both cases, contributing to a polar amplification of warming aloft and a warming reduction in the tropics. The dynamical amplification of polar atmospheric warming also contributes additional warming to the surface below via downward thermal radiation.

scholarly journals A 1D RCE Study of Factors Affecting the Tropical Tropopause Layer and Surface Climate

2019 ◽  
Vol 32 (20) ◽  
pp. 6769-6782 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sally Dacie ◽  
Lukas Kluft ◽  
Hauke Schmidt ◽  
Bjorn Stevens ◽  
Stefan A. Buehler ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Water Vapor ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Temperature Response ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Lapse Rate ◽  
Tropical Tropopause Layer ◽  
Tropical Tropopause ◽  
Surface Climate ◽  
Ozone Profile ◽  
Convective Adjustment

Abstract There are discrepancies between global climate models regarding the evolution of the tropical tropopause layer (TTL) and also whether changes in ozone impact the surface under climate change. We use a 1D clear-sky radiative–convective equilibrium model to determine how a variety of factors can affect the TTL and how they influence surface climate. We develop a new method of convective adjustment, which relaxes the temperature profile toward the moist adiabat and allows for cooling above the level of neutral buoyancy. The TTL temperatures in our model are sensitive to CO2 concentration, ozone profile, the method of convective adjustment, and the upwelling velocity, which is used to calculate a dynamical cooling rate in the stratosphere. Moreover, the temperature response of the TTL to changes in each of the above factors sometimes depends on the others. The surface temperature response to changes in ozone and upwelling at and above the TTL is also strongly amplified by both stratospheric and tropospheric water vapor changes. With all these influencing factors, it is not surprising that global models disagree with regard to TTL structure and evolution and the influence of ozone changes on surface temperatures. On the other hand, the effect of doubling CO2 on the surface, including just radiative, water vapor, and lapse-rate feedbacks, is relatively robust to changes in convection, upwelling, or the applied ozone profile.

scholarly journals Climate Model–Simulated Diurnal Cycles in HIRS Clear-Sky Brightness Temperatures

2012 ◽  
Vol 25 (17) ◽  
pp. 5845-5863 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ian A. MacKenzie ◽  
Simon F. B. Tett ◽  
Anders V. Lindfors
Keyword(s):  
Water Vapor ◽  
Brightness Temperature ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Tropospheric Temperature ◽  
Diurnal Variability ◽  
Diurnal Cycles ◽  
Clear Sky ◽  
Recent Climate ◽  
Diurnal Behavior ◽  
Sky Brightness

Abstract Clear-sky brightness temperature measurements from the High-Resolution Infrared Radiation Sounder (HIRS) are simulated with two climate models via a radiative transfer code. The models are sampled along the HIRS orbit paths to derive diurnal climatologies of simulated brightness temperature analogous to an existing climatology based on HIRS observations. Simulated and observed climatologies are compared to assess model performance and the robustness of the observed climatology. Over land, there is good agreement between simulations and observations, with particularly high consistency for the tropospheric temperature channels. Diurnal cycles in the middle- and upper-tropospheric water vapor channels are weak in both simulations and observations, but the simulated diurnal brightness temperature ranges are smaller than are observed with different phase and there are also intermodel differences. Over sea, the absence of diurnal variability in the models’ sea surface temperatures causes an underestimate of the small diurnal cycles measured in the troposphere. The simulated and observed climatologies imply similar diurnal sampling biases in the HIRS record for the tropospheric temperature channels, but for the upper-tropospheric water vapor channel, differences in the contributions of the 24- and 12-hourly diurnal harmonics lead to differences in the implied bias. Comparison of diurnal cycles derived from HIRS-like and full model sampling suggests that the HIRS measurements are sufficient to fully constrain the diurnal behavior. Overall, the results suggest that recent climate models well represent the major processes driving the diurnal behavior of clear-sky brightness temperature in the HIRS channels. This encourages further studies of observed and simulated climate trends over the HIRS era.

scholarly journals Understanding the Differences Between TOA and Surface Energy Budget Attributions of Surface Warming

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sergio A. Sejas ◽  
Xiaoming Hu ◽  
Ming Cai ◽  
Hanjie Fan
Keyword(s):  
Surface Energy ◽  
Energy Budget ◽  
Surface Energy Budget ◽  
Lapse Rate ◽  
Climate Feedback ◽  
Energy Budgets ◽  
Response Analysis ◽  
Surface Warming ◽  
Rate Feedback ◽  
Consistent Picture

Energy budget decompositions have widely been used to evaluate individual process contributions to surface warming. Conventionally, the top-of-atmosphere (TOA) energy budget has been used to carry out such attribution, while other studies use the surface energy budget instead. However, the two perspectives do not provide the same interpretation of process contributions to surface warming, particularly when executing a spatial analysis. These differences cloud our understanding and inhibit our ability to shrink the inter-model spread. Changes to the TOA energy budget are equivalent to the sum of the changes in the atmospheric and surface energy budgets. Therefore, we show that the major discrepancies between the surface and TOA perspectives are due to non-negligible changes in the atmospheric energy budget that differ from their counterparts at the surface. The TOA lapse-rate feedback is the manifestation of multiple processes that produce a vertically non-uniform warming response such that it accounts for the asymmetry between the changes in the atmospheric and surface energy budgets. Using the climate feedback-response analysis method, we are able to decompose the lapse-rate feedback into contributions by individual processes. Combining the process contributions that are hidden within the lapse-rate feedback with their respective direct impacts on the TOA energy budget allows for a very consistent picture of process contributions to surface warming and its inter-model spread as that given by the surface energy budget approach.

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