Changes in Convective Available Potential Energy and Convective Inhibition under Global Warming

2020 ◽  
Vol 33 (6) ◽  
pp. 2025-2050 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jiao Chen ◽  
Aiguo Dai ◽  
Yaocun Zhang ◽  
Kristen L. Rasmussen
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
Potential Energy ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Convective Available Potential Energy ◽  
The United States ◽  
Specific Humidity ◽  
Low Level ◽  
Available Potential Energy ◽  
Convective Inhibition ◽  
The Impact

AbstractAtmospheric convective available potential energy (CAPE) is expected to increase under greenhouse gas–induced global warming, but a recent regional study also suggests enhanced convective inhibition (CIN) over land although its cause is not well understood. In this study, a global climate model is first evaluated by comparing its CAPE and CIN with reanalysis data, and then their future changes and the underlying causes are examined. The climate model reasonably captures the present-day CAPE and CIN patterns seen in the reanalysis, and projects increased CAPE almost everywhere and stronger CIN over most land under global warming. Over land, the cases or times with medium to strong CAPE or CIN would increase while cases with weak CAPE or CIN would decrease, leading to an overall strengthening in their mean values. These projected changes are confirmed by convection-permitting 4-km model simulations over the United States. The CAPE increase results mainly from increased low-level specific humidity, which leads to more latent heating and buoyancy for a lifted parcel above the level of free convection (LFC) and also a higher level of neutral buoyancy. The enhanced CIN over most land results mainly from reduced low-level relative humidity (RH), which leads to a higher lifting condensation level and a higher LFC and thus more negative buoyancy. Over tropical oceans, the near-surface RH increases slightly, leading to slight weakening of CIN. Over the subtropical eastern Pacific and Atlantic Ocean, the impact of reduced low-level atmospheric lapse rates overshadows the effect of increased specific humidity, leading to decreased CAPE.

Evaluating the Consistency between Statistically Downscaled and Global Dynamical Model Climate Change Projections

2008 ◽  
Vol 21 (22) ◽  
pp. 6052-6059 ◽  
Author(s):  
B. Timbal ◽  
P. Hope ◽  
S. Charles
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
Statistical Downscaling ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Specific Humidity ◽  
Model Output ◽  
Winter Rainfall ◽  
Direct Model ◽  
The Impact

Abstract The consistency between rainfall projections obtained from direct climate model output and statistical downscaling is evaluated. Results are averaged across an area large enough to overcome the difference in spatial scale between these two types of projections and thus make the comparison meaningful. Undertaking the comparison using a suite of state-of-the-art coupled climate models for two forcing scenarios presents a unique opportunity to test whether statistical linkages established between large-scale predictors and local rainfall under current climate remain valid in future climatic conditions. The study focuses on the southwest corner of Western Australia, a region that has experienced recent winter rainfall declines and for which climate models project, with great consistency, further winter rainfall reductions due to global warming. Results show that as a first approximation the magnitude of the modeled rainfall decline in this region is linearly related to the model global warming (a reduction of about 9% per degree), thus linking future rainfall declines to future emission paths. Two statistical downscaling techniques are used to investigate the influence of the choice of technique on projection consistency. In addition, one of the techniques was assessed using different large-scale forcings, to investigate the impact of large-scale predictor selection. Downscaled and direct model projections are consistent across the large number of models and two scenarios considered; that is, there is no tendency for either to be biased; and only a small hint that large rainfall declines are reduced in downscaled projections. Among the two techniques, a nonhomogeneous hidden Markov model provides greater consistency with climate models than an analog approach. Differences were due to the choice of the optimal combination of predictors. Thus statistically downscaled projections require careful choice of large-scale predictors in order to be consistent with physically based rainfall projections. In particular it was noted that a relative humidity moisture predictor, rather than specific humidity, was needed for downscaled projections to be consistent with direct model output projections.

scholarly journals Should Reversible Convective Inhibition be Used when Determining the Inflow Layer of a Convective Storm?

2021 ◽  
Vol 78 (10) ◽  
pp. 3047-3067
Author(s):  
Shawn S. Murdzek ◽  
Paul M. Markowski ◽  
Yvette P. Richardson ◽  
Matthew R. Kumjian
Keyword(s):  
Potential Energy ◽  
Convective Available Potential Energy ◽  
Adiabatic Process ◽  
Convective Storm ◽  
Available Potential Energy ◽  
Convective Inhibition

AbstractConvective inhibition (CIN) is one of the parameters used by forecasters to determine the inflow layer of a convective storm, but little work has examined the best way to compute CIN. One decision that must be made is whether to lift parcels following a pseudoadiabat (removing hydrometeors as the parcel ascends) or reversible moist adiabat (retaining hydrometeors). To determine which option is best, idealized simulations of ordinary convection are examined using a variety of base states with different reversible CIN values for parcels originating in the lowest 500 m. Parcel trajectories suggest that ascent over the lowest few kilometers, where CIN is typically accumulated, is best conceptualized as a reversible moist adiabatic process instead of a pseudoadiabatic process. Most inflow layers do not contain parcels with substantial reversible CIN, despite these parcels possessing ample convective available potential energy and minimal pseudoadiabatic CIN. If a stronger initiation method is used, or hydrometeor loading is ignored, simulations can ingest more parcels with large amounts of reversible CIN. These results suggest that reversible CIN, not pseudoadiabatic CIN, is the physically relevant way to compute CIN and that forecasters may benefit from examining reversible CIN instead of pseudoadiabatic CIN when determining the inflow layer.

scholarly journals Seeking for key meteorological parameters to better understand Hector

2015 ◽  
Vol 3 (6) ◽  
pp. 3621-3653
Author(s):  
S. Gentile ◽  
R. Ferretti
Keyword(s):  
Potential Energy ◽  
Meteorological Parameters ◽  
Mesoscale Model ◽  
Initial Conditions ◽  
Convective Available Potential Energy ◽  
Surface Wind ◽  
Type A ◽  
Weather Forecasts ◽  
Low Level ◽  
Available Potential Energy

Abstract. Twelve Hector events, a storm developing in the northern Australia, are analyzed to the aim of identifying the main meteorological parameters involved in the convective development. Based on Crook's ideal study \\citep{Crook} wind speed and direction, wind shear, water vapor, Convective Available Potential Energy and type of convection are the parameters used for this analysis. Both European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) analysis and high resolution simulations from the Fifth-Generation Mesoscale Model (MM5) are used. The MM5 simulations are used to connect the mean vertical velocity to the total condensate at the maximum stage and to study the dynamics of the storms. The ECMWF analysis are used to evaluate the initial conditions and the environmental fields contributing to Hector development. The analysis suggests that the strength of convection is largely contributing to the vertical distribution of hydrometeors. The role of total condensate and mean lifting vs. low level moisture, Convective Available Potential Energy, surface wind and direction is analyzed for shear and no-shear conditions to evaluate the differences between type A and B for real events. Results confirm the tendency suggested by Crook's analysis. On the other hand, Crook's hypothesis of low level moisture as the only parameter that differentiates between type A and B can be applied only if the events develop in the same meteorological conditions. Crook's tests also helped to asses how the the meteorological parameters contribute to Hector development in terms of percentage.

An Unusual Hailstorm on 24 June 2006 in Boulder, Colorado. Part I: Mesoscale Setting and Radar Features

2008 ◽  
Vol 136 (8) ◽  
pp. 2813-2832 ◽  
Author(s):  
Paul T. Schlatter ◽  
Thomas W. Schlatter ◽  
Charles A. Knight
Keyword(s):  
Boundary Layer ◽  
Potential Energy ◽  
Convective Available Potential Energy ◽  
Meteorological Conditions ◽  
Vertical Shear ◽  
Low Density ◽  
The South ◽  
Low Level ◽  
Available Potential Energy

Abstract An unusual, isolated hailstorm descended on Boulder, Colorado, on the evening of 24 June 2006. Starting with scattered large, flattened, disk-shaped hailstones and ending with a deluge of slushy hail that was over 4 cm deep on the ground, the storm lasted no more than 20 min and did surprisingly little damage except to vegetation. Part I of this two-part paper examines the meteorological conditions preceding the storm and the signatures it exhibited on Weather Surveillance Radar-1988 Doppler (WSR-88D) displays. There was no obvious upper-tropospheric forcing for this storm, vertical shear of the low-level wind was minimal, the boundary layer air feeding the storm was not very moist (maximum dewpoint 8.5°C), and convective available potential energy calculated from a modified air parcel was at most 1550 J kg−1. Despite these handicaps, the hail-producing storm had low-level reflectivity exceeding 70 dBZ, produced copious low-density hail, exhibited strong rotation, and generated three extensive bounded weak-echo regions (BWERs) in succession. The earliest of these filled with high reflectivities as the second one to the south poked up through precipitation-filled air. This has implications for low-density hail growth, as discussed in Part II.

scholarly journals Climatology and Interannual Variability of Boreal Spring Wet Season Precipitation in the Eastern Horn of Africa and Implications for Its Recent Decline

2017 ◽  
Vol 30 (10) ◽  
pp. 3867-3886 ◽  
Author(s):  
Brant Liebmann ◽  
Ileana Bladé ◽  
Chris Funk ◽  
Dave Allured ◽  
Xiao-Wei Quan ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Heat Source ◽  
Potential Energy ◽  
Interannual Variability ◽  
Convective Available Potential Energy ◽  
Specific Humidity ◽  
Horn Of Africa ◽  
Wet Season ◽  
Important Ingredient ◽  
Low Level ◽  
Boreal Spring

Abstract The 1981–2014 climatology and variability of the March–May eastern Horn of Africa boreal spring wet season are examined using precipitation, upper- and lower-level winds, low-level specific humidity, and convective available potential energy (CAPE), with the aim of better understanding the establishment of the wet season and the cause of the recent observed decline. At 850 mb, the development of the wet season is characterized by increasing specific humidity and winds that veer from northeasterly in February to southerly in June and advect moisture into the region, in agreement with an earlier study. Equally important, however, is a substantial weakening of the 200-mb climatological easterly winds in March. Likewise, the shutdown of the wet season coincides with the return of strong easterly winds in June. Similar changes are seen in the daily evolution of specific humidity and 200-mb wind when composited relative to the interannual wet season onset and end, with the easterlies decreasing (increasing) several days prior to the start (end) of the wet season. The 1981–2014 decrease in March–May precipitation has also coincided with an increase in 200-mb easterly winds, with no attendant change in specific humidity, leading to the conclusion that, while high values of specific humidity are an important ingredient of the wet season, the recent observed precipitation decline has resulted mostly from a strengthening of the 200-mb easterlies. This change in the easterly winds appears to be related to an increase in convection over the Indonesian region and in the associated outflow from that enhanced heat source.

scholarly journals Study of Pre-Monsoon Thunderstorms and Associated Thermodynamic Features Over Bangladesh Using WRF-ARW Model

2019 ◽  
Vol 67 (2) ◽  
pp. 151-156
Author(s):  
Pappu Paul ◽  
Ashik Imran ◽  
Md Jafrul Islam ◽  
Alamgir Kabir ◽  
Sahadat Jaman ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Relative Humidity ◽  
Potential Energy ◽  
Convective Available Potential Energy ◽  
Severe Thunderstorm ◽  
Available Potential Energy ◽  
K Index ◽  
Mesoscale System ◽  
Arw Model ◽  
Convective Inhibition ◽  
Wind Distribution

Thunderstorm is a mesoscale system (from a km to below thousands of km and sustaining less than one hour). Two pre-monsoon thunderstorms events are analyzed in this study which are named as event-1 (0030-0150 UTC of 19 April 2018 over Chattogram) and event-2 (0600-1000 UTC of 4 May 2018 over Dhaka). To predict these events Mean Convective Available Potential Energy (mCAPE), Mean Convective Inhibition Energy (mCINE), K Index (KI), Total totals Index (TTI), wind distribution, and relative humidity (RH) are investigated.The model simulated mCAPE and mCINE values, 18 hours before the events, are found greater than 1700 J/Kg and less than 100 J/Kg respectively which satisfies the conditions for thunderstorms to occur.The KI values are close to 400C and TTI values are greater or equal to 450C for both events. The wind patterns and the high value of mid –tropospheric RH also favors the formation of severe thunderstorm. Dhaka Univ. J. Sci. 67(2): 151-156, 2019 (July)

scholarly journals Role of Hamiltonian energy in thunderstorms

MAUSAM ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 68 (3) ◽  
pp. 519-528
Author(s):  
G. K. SAWAISARJE ◽  
SOMENATH DUTTA ◽  
S. JAGTAP
Keyword(s):  
Free Convection ◽  
Potential Energy ◽  
Convective Available Potential Energy ◽  
Lower Troposphere ◽  
Air Mass ◽  
Available Potential Energy ◽  
Special Cases ◽  
Meteorological Observatory ◽  
Synoptic Conditions ◽  
Convective Inhibition

In the present study, we propose a hypothesis that “Hamiltonian energy of thunder storm is contributing towards the energy that overcomes convective inhibition energy to lift the parcel to the level of free convection and releases convective available potential energy in the environment”. We attempt to substantiate the hypothesis. We have applied Hamiltonian structure to a thundercloud which has occurred vertically above the meteorological observatory station. Further, a total of 62 cases of thunderstorms are selected for both stations Palam and Dumdum. Hamiltonian energy is computed and investigated the cases having significant large convective inhibition energy as compared to that of convective available potential energy. We attempt to show that Hamiltonian is the energy that overcomes convective inhibition energy to lift the parcel to the level of free convection and plays a major role in thunderstorms for giving rain.     Results reveal that Hamiltonian energy is seen to be maximum at the surface and contributes to both convective inhibition energy and convective available potential energy. At the lower troposphere, it overcomes the convective inhibition energy and provides necessary trigger for air mass to move from surface to the level of free convection. While in the upper troposphere, it is contributing to the convective available potential energy such that the part of potential energy converted into kinetic energy & warm and moist air mass (unstable) acceleration is enhanced by pressure energy.                          Further, in all the six special cases stability indices had indicated possibility of thunderstorm. In addition, synoptic conditions were also favorable for the same.   

scholarly journals Seeking key meteorological parameters to better understand Hector

2016 ◽  
Vol 16 (2) ◽  
pp. 431-447
Author(s):  
S. Gentile ◽  
R. Ferretti
Keyword(s):  
Potential Energy ◽  
Vertical Velocity ◽  
Meteorological Parameters ◽  
Mesoscale Model ◽  
Initial Conditions ◽  
Convective Available Potential Energy ◽  
Surface Wind ◽  
Type A ◽  
Low Level ◽  
Available Potential Energy

Abstract. Twelve Hector events, a storm which develops in northern Australia, are analyzed with the aim of identifying the main meteorological parameters involved in the storm's convective development. Based on Crook's ideal study (Crook, 2001), wind speed and direction, wind shear, water vapor, convective available potential energy and type of convection are the parameters used for this analysis. Both the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) analysis and high-resolution simulations from the Fifth-Generation Mesoscale Model (MM5) are used. The MM5 simulations are used to connect the mean vertical velocity to the total condensate at the maximum stage and to study the dynamics of the storms. The ECMWF analyses are used to evaluate the initial conditions and the environmental fields contributing to Hector's development. The analysis suggests that the strength of convection, defined in terms of vertical velocity, largely contributes to the vertical distribution of hydrometeors. The role of total condensate and mean lifting versus low-level moisture, convective available potential energy, surface wind and direction is analyzed for shear and no-shear conditions to evaluate the differences between type A and B for real events. Results confirm the tendency suggested by Crook's analysis. However, Crook's hypothesis of low-level moisture as the only parameter that differentiates between type A and B can only be applied if the events develop in the same meteorological conditions. Crook's tests also helped to assess how the meteorological parameters contribute to Hector's development in terms of percentage.

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