scholarly journals Dynamical Downscaling of Future Hydrographic Changes over the Northwest Atlantic Ocean

2020 ◽  
Vol 33 (7) ◽  
pp. 2871-2890 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sang-Ik Shin ◽  
Michael A. Alexander
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Boundary Conditions ◽  
Ocean Circulation ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Gulf Of Maine ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Ocean Modeling ◽  
Regional Ocean Modeling System ◽  
The U.S

AbstractProjected climate changes along the U.S. East and Gulf Coasts were examined using the eddy-resolving Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS). First, a control (CTRL) ROMS simulation was performed using boundary conditions derived from observations. Then climate change signals, obtained as mean seasonal cycle differences between the recent past (1976–2005) and future (2070–99) periods in a coupled global climate model under the RCP8.5 greenhouse gas trajectory, were added to the initial and boundary conditions of the CTRL in a second (RCP85) ROMS simulation. The differences between the RCP85 and CTRL simulations were used to investigate the regional effects of climate change. Relative to the coarse-resolution coupled climate model, the downscaled projection shows that SST changes become more pronounced near the U.S. East Coast, and the Gulf Stream is further reduced in speed and shifted southward. Moreover, the downscaled projection shows enhanced warming of ocean bottom temperatures along the U.S. East and Gulf Coasts, particularly in the Gulf of Maine and the Gulf of Saint Lawrence. The enhanced warming was related to an improved representation of the ocean circulation, including topographically trapped coastal ocean currents and slope water intrusion through the Northeast Channel into the Gulf of Maine. In response to increased radiative forcing, much warmer than present-day Labrador Subarctic Slope Waters entered the Gulf of Maine through the Northeast Channel, warming the deeper portions of the gulf by more than 4°C.

Projected response of Arabian sea Oxygen minimum zone to climate change: Insights from a set of downscaled experiments

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Parvathi Vallivattathillam ◽  
Zouhair Lachkar ◽  
Marina Levy ◽  
Shafer Smith
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Boundary Conditions ◽  
Arabian Sea ◽  
Ocean Modeling ◽  
Depth Range ◽  
Lateral Boundary ◽  
Regional Ocean Modeling System ◽  
Control Simulation ◽  
Lateral Boundary Conditions ◽  
Oxygen Minimum

<p>The land-locked northern boundary and seasonal high productivity in the Arabian sea (AS) leads to the formation and the maintenance of one of the most intense and thickest open ocean oxygen minimum zones (OMZ) there. Earlier studies based on both observation and model sensitivity experiments have reported that this perennial OMZ is highly sensitive to the strength of the monsoonal circulation and surface heating. Model simulations from the fifth phase of Coupled Model Intercomparison project (CMIP5) indicate significant changes in the Indian monsoonal circulation and the atmospheric heat fluxes under climate change. However, the future projection of AS OMZ under climate change remains largely uncertain and ill-understood. This is mainly due to a poor representation of the AS OMZ in the CMIP5 simulations and an important spread in their future oxygen projections for the region. Here we explore how downscaling CMIP5 global simulations with a high-resolution configuration of the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) model coupled to a nitrogen-based NPZD ecosystem model can help improving the representation of the AS OMZ and reduce the spread in CMIP5 projections. To this end, we performed a climatological “reference” simulation, i.e., the control simulation, where ROMS is forced with observed atmospheric and lateral boundary conditions, and a set of corresponding downscaled sensitivity experiment where ROMS is forced with atmospheric and lateral boundary conditions derived from global CMIP5 simulations. For the downscaling experiment, we chose two best performing models from the CMIP5 database based on their skill in simulating the present day (historical) climatology. The control simulation has been extensively validated against the observations for its skill in simulating the physical and biogeochemical variables. We explore the sensitivity of the downscaled oxygen distribution and OMZ to the regional model setup by varying the model resolution from 1/3deg to 1/12deg and expanding the model domain from a small AS-limited domain to one encompassing the full Indian Ocean. We show that the downscaled experiments improve the representation of different classes of oxygen (Oxic - O2 > 60mmol/l; Hypoxic - 60mmol/l >= O2 > 4mmol/l; and the Suboxic  - 4 mmol/l > O2 > 0 mmol/l) within the 0-1500m depth range. In particular, the downscaled experiments simulate a much smaller fraction of suboxic waters relative to hypoxic and oxic fractions, in agreement with observations.</p><p> </p>

scholarly journals Projected Response of Tropical Cyclone Intensity and Intensification in a Global Climate Model

2018 ◽  
Vol 31 (20) ◽  
pp. 8281-8303 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kieran Bhatia ◽  
Gabriel Vecchi ◽  
Hiroyuki Murakami ◽  
Seth Underwood ◽  
James Kossin
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Control Experiment ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
First Century ◽  
Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory ◽  
Twenty First Century

As one of the first global coupled climate models to simulate and predict category 4 and 5 (Saffir–Simpson scale) tropical cyclones (TCs) and their interannual variations, the High-Resolution Forecast-Oriented Low Ocean Resolution (HiFLOR) model at the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) represents a novel source of insight on how the entire TC intensification distribution could be transformed because of climate change. In this study, three 70-yr HiFLOR experiments are performed to identify the effects of climate change on TC intensity and intensification. For each of the experiments, sea surface temperature (SST) is nudged to different climatological targets and atmospheric radiative forcing is specified, allowing us to explore the sensitivity of TCs to these conditions. First, a control experiment, which uses prescribed climatological ocean and radiative forcing based on observations during the years 1986–2005, is compared to two observational records and evaluated for its ability to capture the mean TC behavior during these years. The simulated intensification distributions as well as the percentage of TCs that become major hurricanes show similarities with observations. The control experiment is then compared to two twenty-first-century experiments, in which the climatological SSTs from the control experiment are perturbed by multimodel projected SST anomalies and atmospheric radiative forcing from either 2016–35 or 2081–2100 (RCP4.5 scenario). The frequency, intensity, and intensification distribution of TCs all shift to higher values as the twenty-first century progresses. HiFLOR’s unique response to climate change and fidelity in simulating the present climate lays the groundwork for future studies involving models of this type.

scholarly journals An IFRAME approach for assessing impacts of climate change on fisheries

2011 ◽  
Vol 68 (6) ◽  
pp. 1318-1328 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chang Ik Zhang ◽  
Anne Babcock Hollowed ◽  
Jae-Bong Lee ◽  
Do-Hoon Kim
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Ocean Circulation ◽  
Key Management ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Management Scenarios ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
Bottom Up ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

Abstract Zhang, C. I., Hollowed, A. B., Lee, J-B., and Kim, D-H. 2011. An IFRAME approach for assessing impacts of climate change on fisheries. – ICES Journal of Marine Science, 68: 1318–1328. A new assessment framework is proposed for evaluating the performance of management strategies relative to the goals of an ecosystem approach to management (EAM) under different climate change scenarios. Earlier studies have demonstrated how global climate model simulations from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change can be used to force regional ocean circulation models and forecast regional changes in bottom-up forcing. We extend this approach to assess the ecosystem impacts of resource use and climate change in marine ecosystems, by developing an Integrated Fisheries Risk Analysis Method for Ecosystems (IFRAME) framework. The IFRAME approach tracks climate change impacts on the flow of energy through the planktonic foodweb using NEMURO and projects the implications of these shifts in bottom-up forcing on the fisheries foodweb using Ecopath with Ecosim. Resource management scenarios are developed and incorporated into the projection framework by characterizing the action for changes in fishing mortality or availability of resources. An integrated suite of ecosystem status indicators are proposed to assess the performance of management scenarios relative to the goals of an EAM. These ecosystem status indicators track four key management objectives of the ecosystem: sustainability, biodiversity, habitat quantity, and quality and socio-economic status.

scholarly journals Catalogue of abrupt shifts in Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change climate models

2015 ◽  
Vol 112 (43) ◽  
pp. E5777-E5786 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sybren Drijfhout ◽  
Sebastian Bathiany ◽  
Claudie Beaulieu ◽  
Victor Brovkin ◽  
Martin Claussen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Ocean Circulation ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
General Relation ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
Abrupt Changes ◽  
Abrupt Shifts

Abrupt transitions of regional climate in response to the gradual rise in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations are notoriously difficult to foresee. However, such events could be particularly challenging in view of the capacity required for society and ecosystems to adapt to them. We present, to our knowledge, the first systematic screening of the massive climate model ensemble informing the recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report, and reveal evidence of 37 forced regional abrupt changes in the ocean, sea ice, snow cover, permafrost, and terrestrial biosphere that arise after a certain global temperature increase. Eighteen out of 37 events occur for global warming levels of less than 2°, a threshold sometimes presented as a safe limit. Although most models predict one or more such events, any specific occurrence typically appears in only a few models. We find no compelling evidence for a general relation between the overall number of abrupt shifts and the level of global warming. However, we do note that abrupt changes in ocean circulation occur more often for moderate warming (less than 2°), whereas over land they occur more often for warming larger than 2°. Using a basic proportion test, however, we find that the number of abrupt shifts identified in Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenarios is significantly larger than in other scenarios of lower radiative forcing. This suggests the potential for a gradual trend of destabilization of the climate with respect to such shifts, due to increasing global mean temperature change.

scholarly journals Incorrect Asian aerosols affecting the attribution and projection of regional climate change in CMIP6 models

2021 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhili Wang ◽  
Lei Lin ◽  
Yangyang Xu ◽  
Huizheng Che ◽  
Xiaoye Zhang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Impact Analysis ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Eastern China ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Regional Climate Change ◽  
Anthropogenic Aerosol ◽  
Wide Range

AbstractAnthropogenic aerosol (AA) forcing has been shown as a critical driver of climate change over Asia since the mid-20th century. Here we show that almost all Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models fail to capture the observed dipole pattern of aerosol optical depth (AOD) trends over Asia during 2006–2014, last decade of CMIP6 historical simulation, due to an opposite trend over eastern China compared with observations. The incorrect AOD trend over China is attributed to problematic AA emissions adopted by CMIP6. There are obvious differences in simulated regional aerosol radiative forcing and temperature responses over Asia when using two different emissions inventories (one adopted by CMIP6; the other from Peking university, a more trustworthy inventory) to driving a global aerosol-climate model separately. We further show that some widely adopted CMIP6 pathways (after 2015) also significantly underestimate the more recent decline in AA emissions over China. These flaws may bring about errors to the CMIP6-based regional climate attribution over Asia for the last two decades and projection for the next few decades, previously anticipated to inform a wide range of impact analysis.

High-Resolution Climate Change Impact Analysis on Expected Future Water Availability in the Upper Jordan Catchment and the Middle East

2014 ◽  
Vol 15 (4) ◽  
pp. 1517-1531 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gerhard Smiatek ◽  
Harald Kunstmann ◽  
Andreas Heckl
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
High Resolution ◽  
Water Availability ◽  
Impact Analysis ◽  
River Flow ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Mesoscale Model ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Full Range ◽  
The Impact

Abstract The impact of climate change on the future water availability of the upper Jordan River (UJR) and its tributaries Dan, Snir, and Hermon located in the eastern Mediterranean is evaluated by a highly resolved distributed approach with the fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University–NCAR Mesoscale Model (MM5) run at 18.6- and 6.2-km resolution offline coupled with the Water Flow and Balance Simulation Model (WaSiM). The MM5 was driven with NCEP reanalysis for 1971–2000 and with Hadley Centre Coupled Model, version 3 (HadCM3), GCM forcings for 1971–2099. Because only one regional–global climate model combination was applied, the results may not give the full range of possible future projections. To describe the Dan spring behavior, the hydrological model was extended by a bypass approach to allow the fast discharge components of the Snir to enter the Dan catchment. Simulation results for the period 1976–2000 reveal that the coupled system was able to reproduce the observed discharge rates in the partially karstic complex terrain to a reasonable extent with the high-resolution 6.2-km meteorological input only. The performed future climate simulations show steadily rising temperatures with 2.2 K above the 1976–2000 mean for the period 2031–60 and 3.5 K for the period 2070–99. Precipitation trends are insignificant until the middle of the century, although a decrease of approximately 12% is simulated. For the end of the century, a reduction in rainfall ranging between 10% and 35% can be expected. Discharge in the UJR is simulated to decrease by 12% until 2060 and by 26% until 2099, both related to the 1976–2000 mean. The discharge decrease is associated with a lower number of high river flow years.

scholarly journals Projected Changes in Extreme Temperature and Precipitation Indices Over CORDEX-MENA Domain

Atmosphere ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (5) ◽  
pp. 622
Author(s):  
Tugba Ozturk ◽  
F. Sibel Saygili-Araci ◽  
M. Levent Kurnaz
Keyword(s):  
Regional Climate Model ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Climate Extreme ◽  
Pronounced Increase ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Projected Changes ◽  
Extreme Indices

In this study, projected changes in climate extreme indices defined by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices were investigated over Middle East and North Africa. Changes in the daily maximum and minimum temperature- and precipitation- based extreme indices were analyzed for the end of the 21st century compared to the reference period 1971–2000 using regional climate model simulations. Regional climate model, RegCM4.4 was used to downscale two different global climate model outputs to 50 km resolution under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. Results generally indicate an intensification of temperature- and precipitation- based extreme indices with increasing radiative forcing. In particular, an increase in annual minimum of daily minimum temperatures is more pronounced over the northern part of Mediterranean Basin and tropics. High increase in warm nights and warm spell duration all over the region with a pronounced increase in tropics are projected for the period of 2071–2100 together with decrease or no change in cold extremes. According to the results, a decrease in total wet-day precipitation and increase in dry spells are expected for the end of the century.

scholarly journals Dynamic Downscaling of the Impact of Climate Change on the Ocean Circulation in the Galápagos Archipelago

2013 ◽  
Vol 2013 ◽  
pp. 1-18 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yanyun Liu ◽  
Lian Xie ◽  
John M. Morrison ◽  
Daniel Kamykowski
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Ocean Circulation ◽  
Global Climate Change ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Ocean Model ◽  
Reanalysis Dataset ◽  
Equatorial Undercurrent ◽  
Galapagos Archipelago ◽  
The Impact

The regional impact of global climate change on the ocean circulation around the Galápagos Archipelago is studied using the Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM) configured for a four-level nested domain system. The modeling system is validated and calibrated using daily atmospheric forcing derived from the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis dataset from 1951 to 2007. The potential impact of future anthropogenic global warming (AGW) in the Galápagos region is examined using the calibrated HYCOM with forcing derived from the IPCC-AR4 climate model. Results show that although the oceanic variability in the entire Galápagos region is significantly affected by global climate change, the degree of such effects is inhomogeneous across the region. The upwelling region to the west of the Isabella Island shows relatively slower warming trends compared to the eastern Galápagos region. Diagnostic analysis suggests that the variability in the western Galápagos upwelling region is affected mainly by equatorial undercurrent (EUC) and Panama currents, while the central/east Galápagos is predominantly affected by both Peru and EUC currents. The inhomogeneous responses in different regions of the Galápagos Archipelago to future AGW can be explained by the incoherent changes of the various current systems in the Galápagos region as a result of global climate change.

scholarly journals Historical greenhouse gas concentrations

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Malte Meinshausen ◽  
Elisabeth Vogel ◽  
Alexander Nauels ◽  
Katja Lorbacher ◽  
Nicolai Meinshausen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Greenhouse Gas ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Sulfur Hexafluoride ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Large Set ◽  
Mixing Ratios ◽  
Surface Mixing ◽  
Cooling Effects

Abstract. Atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations are at unprecedented, record-high levels compared to pre-industrial reconstructions over the last 800,000 years. Those elevated greenhouse gas concentrations warm the planet and together with net cooling effects by aerosols, they are the reason of observed climate change over the past 150 years. An accurate representation of those concentrations is hence important to understand and model recent and future climate change. So far, community efforts to create composite datasets with seasonal and latitudinal information have focused on marine boundary layer conditions and recent trends since 1980s. Here, we provide consolidated data sets of historical atmospheric (volume) mixing ratios of 43 greenhouse gases specifically for the purpose of climate model runs. The presented datasets are based on AGAGE and NOAA networks and a large set of literature studies. In contrast to previous intercomparisons, the new datasets are latitudinally resolved, and include seasonality over the period between year 0 to 2014. We assimilate data for CO2, methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O), 5 chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs), 3 hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs), 16 hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), 3 halons, methyl bromide (CH3Br), 3 perfluorocarbons (PFCs), sulfur hexafluoride (SF6), nitrogen triflouride (NF3) and sulfuryl fluoride (SO2F2). We estimate 1850 annual and global mean surface mixing ratios of CO2 at 284.3 ppmv, CH4 at 808.2 ppbv and N2O at 273.0 ppbv and quantify the seasonal and hemispheric gradients of surface mixing ratios. Compared to earlier intercomparisons, the stronger implied radiative forcing in the northern hemisphere winter (due to the latitudinal gradient and seasonality) may help to improve the skill of climate models to reproduce past climate and thereby reduce uncertainty in future projections.

scholarly journals Assessment of Regional Global Climate Model Water Vapor Bias and Trends Using Precipitable Water Vapor (PWV) Observations from a Network of Global Positioning Satellite (GPS) Receivers in the U.S. Great Plains and Midwest

2012 ◽  
Vol 25 (16) ◽  
pp. 5471-5493 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jacola A. Roman ◽  
Robert O. Knuteson ◽  
Steven A. Ackerman ◽  
David C. Tobin ◽  
Henry E. Revercomb
Keyword(s):  
Water Vapor ◽  
Great Plains ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Precipitable Water ◽  
Specific Humidity ◽  
Model Output ◽  
Global Positioning ◽  
The U.S

Abstract Precipitable water vapor (PWV) observations from the National Center of Atmospheric Research (NCAR) SuomiNet networks of ground-based global positioning system (GPS) receivers and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Profiler Network (NPN) are used in the regional assessment of global climate models. Study regions in the U.S. Great Plains and Midwest highlight the differences among global climate model output from the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A2 scenario in their seasonal representation of column water vapor and the vertical distribution of moisture. In particular, the Community Climate System model, version 3 (CCSM3) is shown to exhibit a dry bias of over 30% in the summertime water vapor column, while the Goddard Institute for Space Studies Model E20 (GISS E20) agrees well with PWV observations. A detailed assessment of vertical profiles of temperature, relative humidity, and specific humidity confirm that only GISS E20 was able to represent the summertime specific humidity profile in the atmospheric boundary layer (<3%) and thus the correct total column water vapor. All models show good agreement in the winter season for the region. Regional trends using station-elevation-corrected GPS PWV data from two complimentary networks are found to be consistent with null trends predicted in the AR4 A2 scenario model output for the period 2000–09. The time to detect (TTD) a 0.05 mm yr−1 PWV trend, as predicted in the A2 scenario for the period 2000–2100, is shown to be 25–30 yr with 95% confidence in the Oklahoma–Kansas region.

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