scholarly journals Future Summer Drying in the U.S. Corn Belt and the Role of Midlatitude Storm Tracks

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-33
Author(s):  
Mingfang Ting ◽  
Richard Seager ◽  
Cuihua Li ◽  
Haibo Liu ◽  
Naomi Henderson
Keyword(s):  
Great Plains ◽  
Storm Track ◽  
Moisture Flux ◽  
Corn Belt ◽  
Transient Eddy ◽  
Midwest United States ◽  
The Future ◽  
Moisture Fluxes ◽  
Hydrological Stress ◽  
Thermodynamic Mechanism

AbstractDuring the summer, the Midwest United States, which covers the main US corn belt, has a net loss of surface water as evapotranspiration exceeds precipitation. The net moisture gain into the atmosphere is transported out of the region to northern high latitudes through transient eddy moisture fluxes. How this process may change in the future is not entirely clear despite the fact that the corn belt region is responsible for a large portion of the global supply of corn and soybeans. We find that increased CO2 and the associated warming increases evapotranspiration. while precipitation reduces in the region leading to further reduction in precipitation minus evaporation (P-E) in the future. At the same time, the poleward transient moisture flux increases leading to enhanced atmospheric moistures export from the corn belt region. However, storm track intensity is generally weakened in the summer due to reduced north-south temperature gradient associated with amplified warming in the midlatitudes. The intensified transient eddy moisture transport as storm track weakens can be reconciled by the stronger mean moisture gradient in the future. This is found to be caused by the climatological low-level jet transporting more moisture into the Great Plains region due to the thermodynamic mechanism under warmer conditions. Our results, for the first time, show that in the future, the US Midwest corn belt will experience more hydrological stress due to intensified transient eddy moisture export leading to drier soils in the region.

scholarly journals The Annular Response to Tropical Pacific SST Forcing

2006 ◽  
Vol 19 (9) ◽  
pp. 1802-1819 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shuanglin Li ◽  
Martin P. Hoerling ◽  
Shiling Peng ◽  
Klaus M. Weickmann
Keyword(s):  
General Circulation ◽  
Storm Track ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Tropical Pacific ◽  
Transient Eddy ◽  
West Pacific ◽  
Core Energy ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
Sst Forcing ◽  
Sst Anomaly

Abstract The leading pattern of Northern Hemisphere winter height variability exhibits an annular structure, one related to tropical west Pacific heating. To explore whether this pattern can be excited by tropical Pacific SST variations, an atmospheric general circulation model coupled to a slab mixed layer ocean is employed. Ensemble experiments with an idealized SST anomaly centered at different longitudes on the equator are conducted. The results reveal two different response patterns—a hemispheric pattern projecting on the annular mode and a meridionally arched pattern confined to the Pacific–North American sector, induced by the SST anomaly in the west and the east Pacific, respectively. Extratropical air–sea coupling enhances the annular component of response to the tropical west Pacific SST anomalies. A diagnosis based on linear dynamical models suggests that the two responses are primarily maintained by transient eddy forcing. In both cases, the model transient eddy forcing response has a maximum near the exit of the Pacific jet, but with a different meridional position relative to the upper-level jet. The emergence of an annular response is found to be very sensitive to whether transient eddy forcing anomalies occur within the axis of the jet core. For forcing within the jet core, energy propagates poleward and downstream, inducing an annular response. For forcing away from the jet core, energy propagates equatorward and downstream, inducing a trapped regional response. The selection of an annular versus a regionally confined tropospheric response is thus postulated to depend on how the storm tracks respond. Tropical west Pacific SST forcing is particularly effective in exciting the required storm-track response from which a hemisphere-wide teleconnection structure emerges.

A nonlinear multi-scale theory of atmospheric blocking: Structure and evolution of blocking linked to meridional and vertical structures of storm tracks

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dehai Luo ◽  
Wenqi Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Storm Track ◽  
Interaction Model ◽  
Maximum Amplitude ◽  
Transient Eddy ◽  
Baroclinic Mode ◽  
Upper Troposphere ◽  
Multi Scale ◽  
The North ◽  
Baroclinic Modes ◽  
The Impact

AbstractThis paper examines the impact of the meridional and vertical structures of a preexisting upstream storm track (PUST) organized by preexisting synoptic-scale eddies on eddy-driven blocking in a nonlinear multi-scale interaction model. In this model, the blocking is assumed, based on observations, to be comprised of barotropic and first baroclinic modes, whereas the PUST consists of barotropic, first baroclinic and second baroclinic modes. It is found that the nonlinearity (dispersion) of blocking is intensified (weakened) with increasing amplitude of the first baroclinic mode of the blocking itself. The blocking tends to be long-lived in this case. The lifetime and strength of blocking are significantly influenced by the amplitude of the first baroclinic mode of blocking for given basic westerly winds (BWWs), whereas its spatial pattern and evolution are also affected by the meridional and vertical structures of the PUST.It is shown that the blocking mainly results from the transient eddy forcing induced by the barotropic and first baroclinic modes of PUST, whereas its second baroclinic mode contributes little to the transient eddy forcing. When the PUST shifts northward, eddy-driven blocking shows an asymmetric dipole structure with a strong anticyclone/weak cyclone in a uniform BWW, which induces northward-intensified westerly jet and storm track anomalies mainly on the north side of blocking. However, when the PUST has no meridional shift and is mainly located in the upper troposphere, a north-south anti-symmetric dipole blocking and an intensified split jet with maximum amplitude in the upper troposphere form easily for vertically varying BWWs without meridional shear.

scholarly journals Investigating the Local Atmospheric Response to a Realistic Shift in the Oyashio Sea Surface Temperature Front

2015 ◽  
Vol 28 (3) ◽  
pp. 1126-1147 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dimitry Smirnov ◽  
Matthew Newman ◽  
Michael A. Alexander ◽  
Young-Oh Kwon ◽  
Claude Frankignoul
Keyword(s):  
High Resolution ◽  
Surface Wind ◽  
Lower Troposphere ◽  
Vertical Motion ◽  
Atmospheric Response ◽  
Transient Eddy ◽  
Sst Front ◽  
Moisture Fluxes ◽  
Upper Level ◽  
Heat And Moisture

Abstract The local atmospheric response to a realistic shift of the Oyashio Extension SST front in the western North Pacific is analyzed using a high-resolution (HR; 0.25°) version of the global Community Atmosphere Model, version 5 (CAM5). A northward shift in the SST front causes an atmospheric response consisting of a weak surface wind anomaly but a strong vertical circulation extending throughout the troposphere. In the lower troposphere, most of the SST anomaly–induced diabatic heating is balanced by poleward transient eddy heat and moisture fluxes. Collectively, this response differs from the circulation suggested by linear dynamics, where extratropical SST forcing produces shallow anomalous heating balanced by strong equatorward cold air advection driven by an anomalous, stationary surface low to the east. This latter response, however, is obtained by repeating the same experiment except using a relatively low-resolution (LR; 1°) version of CAM5. Comparison to observations suggests that the HR response is closer to nature than the LR response. Strikingly, HR and LR experiments have almost identical vertical profiles of . However, diagnosis of the diabatic quasigeostrophic vertical pressure velocity (ω) budget reveals that HR has a substantially stronger response, which together with upper-level mean differential thermal advection balances stronger vertical motion. The results herein suggest that changes in transient eddy heat and moisture fluxes are critical to the overall local atmospheric response to Oyashio Front anomalies, which may consequently yield a stronger downstream response. These changes may require the high resolution to be fully reproduced, warranting further experiments of this type with other high-resolution atmosphere-only and fully coupled GCMs.

scholarly journals The South-Central U.S. Flood of May 2010: Present and Future*

2013 ◽  
Vol 26 (13) ◽  
pp. 4688-4709 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gary M. Lackmann
Keyword(s):  
Simulation Analysis ◽  
Mesoscale Model ◽  
Moisture Flux ◽  
Feedback Mechanism ◽  
Initial Surface ◽  
The South ◽  
South Central ◽  
Flooding Event ◽  
The Future ◽  
Central United States

Abstract Previous studies have documented a feedback mechanism involving the cyclonic low-level jet (LLJ), poleward moisture flux and flux convergence, and condensational heating. Increased water vapor content and potentially heavier precipitation accompanying climate warming suggest the hypothesis that this feedback could strengthen with warming, contributing to amplification of precipitation extremes beyond what the thermodynamically controlled vapor increase would provide. Here, this hypothesis is tested with numerical simulations of a severe flooding event that took place in early May 2010 in the south-central United States. Control simulations with a mesoscale model capture the main features of the May 2010 flooding event. A pseudo–global warming approach is used to modify the current initial, surface, and boundary conditions by applying thermodynamic changes projected by an ensemble of GCMs for the A2 emission scenario. The observed synoptic pattern of the flooding event is replicated but with modified future thermodynamics, allowing isolation of thermodynamic changes on the moisture feedback. This comparison does not indicate a strengthening of the LLJ in the future simulation. Analysis of the lower-tropospheric potential vorticity evolution reveals that the southern portion of the LLJ over the Gulf of Mexico in this event was strengthened through processes involving the terrain of the Mexican Plateau; this aspect is largely insensitive to climate change. Despite the lack of LLJ strengthening, precipitation in the future simulation increased at a super Clausius–Clapeyron rate because of strengthened convective updrafts.

Decomposition of Future Moisture Flux Changes over the Tibetan Plateau Projected by Global and Regional Climate Models

2019 ◽  
Vol 32 (20) ◽  
pp. 7037-7053
Author(s):  
Hongwen Zhang ◽  
Yanhong Gao ◽  
Jianwei Xu ◽  
Yu Xu ◽  
Yingsha Jiang
Keyword(s):  
Tibetan Plateau ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Dynamical Downscaling ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Moisture Flux ◽  
Historical Period ◽  
The Tibetan Plateau ◽  
Dynamic Component ◽  
Coarse Resolution ◽  
The Future

Abstract To meet the requirement of high-resolution datasets for many applications, a dynamical downscaling approach using a regional climate model (the WRF Model) driven by a global climate model (CCSM4) has been adopted. This study focuses on projections of future moisture flux changes over the Tibetan Plateau (TP). First, the downscaling results for the historical period (1980–2005) are evaluated for precipitation P, evaporation E, and precipitation minus evaporation P − E against Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) data. The mechanism of P − E changes is analyzed by decomposition into dynamic, thermodynamic, and transient eddy components. Whether the historical period changes and mechanisms continue into the future (2010–2100) is investigated using the WRF and CCSM model projections under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. Compared with coarse-resolution forcing, downscaling was found to better reproduce the historical spatial patterns and seasonal mean of annual average P, E, and P − E over the TP. WRF projects a diverse spatial variation of P − E changes, with an increase in the northern TP and a decrease in the southern TP, compared with the uniform increase in CCSM. The dynamic component dominates P − E changes for the historical period in both the CCSM and WRF projections. In the future, however, the thermodynamic component in CCSM dominates P − E changes under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 from the near-term (2010–39) to the long-term (2070–99) future. Unlike the CCSM projections, the WRF projections reproduce the mechanism seen in the historical period—that is, the dynamic component dominates P − E changes. Furthermore, future P − E changes in the dynamical downscaling are less sensitive to warming than its coarse-resolution forcing.

scholarly journals Primary Atmospheric Drivers of Pluvial Years in the United States Great Plains

2018 ◽  
Vol 19 (4) ◽  
pp. 643-658 ◽  
Author(s):  
Paul X. Flanagan ◽  
Jeffrey B. Basara ◽  
Jason C. Furtado ◽  
Xiangming Xiao
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Great Plains ◽  
Heavy Precipitation ◽  
The United States ◽  
Precipitation Variability ◽  
Northern Great Plains ◽  
Southern Great Plains ◽  
The Public ◽  
Moisture Fluxes ◽  
Precipitation Events

Abstract Precipitation variability has increased in recent decades across the Great Plains (GP) of the United States. Drought and its associated drivers have been studied in the GP region; however, periods of excessive precipitation (pluvials) at seasonal to interannual scales have received less attention. This study narrows this knowledge gap with the overall goal of understanding GP precipitation variability during pluvial periods. Through composites of relevant atmospheric variables from the ECMWF twentieth-century reanalysis (ERA-20C), key differences between southern Great Plains (SGP) and northern Great Plains (NGP) pluvial periods are highlighted. The SGP pluvial pattern shows an area of negative height anomalies over the southwestern United States with wind anomalies consistent with frequent synoptic wave passages along a southward-shifted North Pacific jet. The NGP pattern during pluvial periods, by contrast, depicts anomalously low heights in the northwestern United States and an anomalously extended Pacific jet. Analysis of daily heavy precipitation events reveals the key drivers for these pluvial events, namely, an east–west height gradient and associated stronger poleward moisture fluxes. Therefore, the results show that pluvial years over the GP are likely driven by synoptic-scale processes rather than by anomalous seasonal precipitation driven by longer time-scale features. Overall, the results present a possible pathway to predicting the occurrence of pluvial years over the GP and understanding the causes of GP precipitation variability, potentially mitigating the threats of water scarcity and excesses for the public and agricultural sectors.

scholarly journals A Methodology for Flash Drought Identification: Application of Flash Drought Frequency across the United States

2019 ◽  
Vol 20 (5) ◽  
pp. 833-846 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jordan I. Christian ◽  
Jeffrey B. Basara ◽  
Jason A. Otkin ◽  
Eric D. Hunt ◽  
Ryann A. Wakefield ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Great Lakes ◽  
Great Plains ◽  
Hot Spot ◽  
The United States ◽  
General Definition ◽  
Corn Belt ◽  
Great Lakes Region ◽  
Rapid Rate ◽  
Western Great Lakes

Abstract With the increasing use of the term “flash drought” within the scientific community, Otkin et al. provide a general definition that identifies flash droughts based on their unusually rapid rate of intensification. This study presents an objective percentile-based methodology that builds upon that work by identifying flash droughts using standardized evaporative stress ratio (SESR) values and changes in SESR over some period of time. Four criteria are specified to identify flash droughts: two that emphasize the vegetative impacts of flash drought and two that focus on the rapid rate of intensification. The methodology was applied to the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) to develop a 38-yr flash drought climatology (1979–2016) across the United States. It was found that SESR derived from NARR data compared well with the satellite-based evaporative stress index for four previously identified flash drought events. Furthermore, four additional flash drought cases were compared with the U.S. Drought Monitor (USDM), and SESR rapidly declined 1–2 weeks before a response was evident with the USDM. From the climatological analysis, a hot spot of flash drought occurrence was revealed over the Great Plains, the Corn Belt, and the western Great Lakes region. Relatively few flash drought events occurred over mountainous and arid regions. Flash droughts were categorized based on their rate of intensification, and it was found that the most intense flash droughts occurred over the central Great Plains, Corn Belt, and western Great Lakes region.

The Future of Great Plains Research

2016 ◽  
Vol 26 (2) ◽  
pp. v-v
Author(s):  
Peter J. Longo ◽  
Richard C. Edwards
Keyword(s):  
Great Plains ◽  
The Future

Pentad Evolution of the 1988 Drought and 1993 Flood over the Great Plains: An NARR Perspective on the Atmospheric and Terrestrial Water Balance

2009 ◽  
Vol 22 (20) ◽  
pp. 5366-5384 ◽  
Author(s):  
Scott J. Weaver ◽  
Alfredo Ruiz-Barradas ◽  
Sumant Nigam
Keyword(s):  
Soil Moisture ◽  
Water Balance ◽  
Great Plains ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Surface States ◽  
Moisture Flux ◽  
Summer Drought ◽  
Southern Plains ◽  
The North ◽  
Terrestrial Water

Abstract The evolution of the atmospheric and land surface states during extreme hydroclimate episodes over North America is investigated using the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR), which additionally, and successfully, assimilates precipitation. The pentad-resolution portrayals of the atmospheric and terrestrial water balance over the U.S. Great Plains during the 1988 summer drought and the July 1993 floods are analyzed to provide insight into the operative mechanisms including regional circulation (e.g., the Great Plains low-level jet, or GPLLJ) and hydroclimate (e.g., precipitation, evaporation, soil moisture recharge, runoff). The submonthly (but supersynoptic time scale) fluctuations of the GPLLJ are found to be very influential, through related moisture transport and kinematic convergence (e.g., ∂υ/∂y), with the jet anomalies in the southern plains leading the northern precipitation and related moisture flux convergence, accounting for two-thirds of the dry and wet episode precipitation amplitude. The soil moisture influence on hydroclimate evolution is assessed to be marginal as evaporation anomalies are found to lag precipitation ones, a lead–lag not discernible at monthly resolution. The pentad analysis thus corroborates the authors’ earlier findings on the importance of transported moisture over local evaporation in Great Plains’ summer hydroclimate variability. The regional water budgets—atmospheric and terrestrial—are found to be substantially unbalanced, with the terrestrial imbalance being unacceptably large. Pentad analysis shows the atmospheric imbalance to arise from the sluggishness of the NARR evaporation, including its overestimation in wet periods. The larger terrestrial imbalance, on the other hand, has its origins in the striking unresponsiveness of the NARR’s runoff, which is underestimated in wet episodes. Finally, the influence of ENSO and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) variability on the GPLLJ is quantified during the wet episode, in view of the importance of moisture transports. It is shown that a significant portion (∼25%) of the GPLLJ anomaly (and downstream precipitation) is attributable to NAO and ENSO’s influence, and that this combined influence prolongs the wet episode beyond the period of the instigating GPLLJ.

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