scholarly journals Climatology and Variability of the Evaporative Stress Index and Its Suitability as a Tool to Monitor Australian Drought

2020 ◽  
Vol 21 (10) ◽  
pp. 2309-2324
Author(s):  
Hanh Nguyen ◽  
Jason A. Otkin ◽  
Matthew C. Wheeler ◽  
Pandora Hope ◽  
Blair Trewin ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Potential Evapotranspiration ◽  
Moisture Stress ◽  
Southern Annular Mode ◽  
Resource Assessment ◽  
Stress Index ◽  
Balance Model ◽  
Austral Spring ◽  
Australian Water ◽  
Highly Correlated ◽  
Landscape Water Balance

AbstractThe seasonal cycle of the evaporative stress index (ESI) over Australia, and its relationship to observed rainfall and temperature, is examined. The ESI is defined as the standardized anomaly of the ratio of actual evapotranspiration to potential evapotranspiration, and as such, is a measure of vegetation moisture stress associated with agricultural or ecological drought. The ESI is computed using the daily output of version 6 of the Bureau of Meteorology’s landscape water balance model [Australian Water Resource Assessment Landscape (AWRA-L)] on a 5-km horizontal grid over a 45-yr period (1975–2019). Here we show that the ESI exhibits marked spatial and seasonal variability and can be used to accurately monitor drought across Australia, where ESI values less than negative one indicate drought. While the ESI is highly correlated with rainfall as expected, its relationship with temperature only becomes significant during the warmer seasons, suggesting a threshold above which temperature may affect vegetation stress. Our analysis also shows that the ESI tends to be strongly negative (i.e., indicating drought) during El Niño and positive phases of the Indian Ocean dipole (IOD), when conditions tend to be anomalously hot and dry. A negative phase of the southern annular mode also tends to drive negative ESI values during austral spring with a one-month delay.

A MOISTURE STRESS INDEX FOR WHEAT BY MEANS OF A MODULATED SOIL MOISTURE BUDGET

1968 ◽  
Vol 48 (5) ◽  
pp. 535-544 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. R. Mack ◽  
W. S. Ferguson
Keyword(s):  
Soil Moisture ◽  
Stress Function ◽  
Potential Evapotranspiration ◽  
Moisture Stress ◽  
Moisture Distribution ◽  
Stress Index ◽  
Wheat Crop ◽  
Moisture Budget ◽  
Dough Stage ◽  
Soil Moisture Budget

Actual evapotranspiration (AE), soil moisture distribution, and moisture stress for a wheat crop (PE-AE) were estimated by the modulated soil moisture budget of Holmes and Robertson. The estimated soil moisture was reasonably well correlated with soil moisture measured weekly by means of gypsum blocks. Wheat yields from experimental plots in the corresponding area were related more closely to the moisture stress function (PE-AE: r = − 0.83), than to the seasonal precipitation (r = 0.62), the potential evapotranspiration (PE) or the evapotranspiration ratio (AE/PE). Regression analyses showed that the grain yields were reduced by an average of 156 (±sb = 40) kg/ha per cm of moisture stress from emergence to harvest, or by 311 and 69 kg/ha per cm of stress, from the fifth-leaf to the soft-dough stage and from the soft-dough stage to maturity, respectively. The moisture stress function may be used to characterize the soil–plant–atmosphere environment for the growing season of a crop. Precipitation and evapotranspiration data are presented annually for three standardized growing periods at Brandon from 1921 to 1963.

scholarly journals Integration of a Landsat Time-Series of NBR and Hydrological Modeling to Assess Pinus Pinaster Aiton. Forest Defoliation in South-Eastern Spain

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (19) ◽  
pp. 2291
Author(s):  
Ariza Salamanca ◽  
Navarro-Cerrillo ◽  
Bonet-García ◽  
Palazón ◽  
Polo
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Pinus Pinaster ◽  
Hydrological Modeling ◽  
Potential Evapotranspiration ◽  
Moisture Stress ◽  
Machine Learning Algorithms ◽  
Stress Index ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Distributed Hydrological Model ◽  
Hydrological Variables

Climate change is increasing the vulnerability of Mediterranean coniferous plantations. Here, we integrate a Landsat time series with a physically-based distributed hydrological model (Watershed Integrated Management in Mediterranean Environments—WiMMed) to examine spatially-explicit relationships between the mortality processes of Pinus pinaster plantations and the hydrological regime, using different spectral indices of vegetation and machine learning algorithms. The Normalized Burn Ratio (NBR) and Moisture Stress Index (MSI) show the highest correlations with defoliation rates. Random Forest was the most accurate model (R2 = 0.79; RMSE = 0.059), showing a high model performance and prediction. Support vector machines and neural networks also demonstrated a high performance (R2 > 0.7). The main hydrological variables selected by the model to explain defoliation were potential evapotranspiration, winter precipitation and maximum summer temperature (lower Out-of-bag error). These results show the importance of hydrological variables involved in evaporation processes, and on the change in the spatial distribution of seasonal rainfall upon the defoliation processes of P. pinaster. These results underpin the importance of integrating temporal remote sensing data and hydrological models to analyze the drivers of forest defoliation and mortality processes in the Mediterranean climate.

scholarly journals Examining the Relationship between Drought Development and Rapid Changes in the Evaporative Stress Index

2014 ◽  
Vol 15 (3) ◽  
pp. 938-956 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jason A. Otkin ◽  
Martha C. Anderson ◽  
Christopher Hain ◽  
Mark Svoboda
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Early Warning ◽  
Rapid Change ◽  
Moisture Stress ◽  
Stress Index ◽  
Balance Model ◽  
Eastern United States ◽  
Thermal Infrared Remote Sensing ◽  
Increased Risk ◽  
Rapid Changes

Abstract In this study, the ability of a new drought metric based on thermal infrared remote sensing imagery to provide early warning of an elevated risk for drought intensification is assessed. This new metric, called the rapid change index (RCI), is designed to highlight areas undergoing rapid changes in moisture stress as inferred from weekly changes in the evaporative stress index (ESI) generated using the Atmosphere–Land Exchange Inverse (ALEXI) surface energy balance model. Two case study analyses across the central United States revealed that the initial appearance of negative RCI values indicative of rapid increases in moisture stress preceded the introduction of severe-to-exceptional drought in the U.S. Drought Monitor (USDM) by more than 4 weeks. Using data from 2000 to 2012, the probability of USDM intensification of at least one, two, or three categories over different time periods was computed as a function of the RCI magnitude. Compared to baseline probabilities, the RCI-derived probabilities often indicate a much higher risk for drought development that increases greatly as the RCI becomes more negative. When the RCI is strongly negative, many areas are characterized by intensification probabilities that are several times higher than the baseline climatology. The highest probabilities encompass much of the central and eastern United States, with the greatest increase over climatology within regions most susceptible to rapid drought development. These results show that the RCI provides useful drought early warning capabilities that could be used to alert stakeholders of an increased risk for drought development over subseasonal time scales.

The Impact of ENSO on Wave Breaking and Southern Annular Mode Events

2010 ◽  
Vol 67 (9) ◽  
pp. 2854-2870 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tingting Gong ◽  
Steven B. Feldstein ◽  
Dehai Luo
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
Wave Breaking ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Annular Mode ◽  
La Niña ◽  
Background Flow ◽  
Austral Spring ◽  
Annular Mode ◽  
La Nina ◽  
The Impact

Abstract This study examines the relationship between intraseasonal southern annular mode (SAM) events and the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) using daily 40-yr ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA-40) data. The data coverage spans the years 1979–2002, for the austral spring and summer seasons. The focus of this study is on the question of why positive SAM events dominate during La Niña and negative SAM events during El Niño. A composite analysis is performed on the zonal-mean zonal wind, Eliassen–Palm fluxes, and two diagnostic variables: the meridional potential vorticity gradient, a zonal-mean quantity that is used to estimate the likelihood of wave breaking, and the wave breaking index (WBI), which is used to evaluate the strength of the wave breaking. The results of this investigation suggest that the background zonal-mean flow associated with La Niña (El Niño) is preconditioned for strong (weak) anticyclonic wave breaking on the equatorward side of the eddy-driven jet, the type of wave breaking that is found to drive positive (negative) SAM events. A probability density function analysis of the WBI, for both La Niña and El Niño, indicates that strong anticyclonic wave breaking takes place much more frequently during La Niña and weak anticyclonic wave breaking during El Niño. It is suggested that these wave breaking characteristics, and their dependency on the background flow, can explain the strong preference for SAM events of one phase during ENSO. The analysis also shows that austral spring SAM events that coincide with ENSO are preceded by strong stratospheric SAM anomalies and then are followed by a prolonged period of wave breaking that lasts for approximately 30 days. These findings suggest that the ENSO background flow also plays a role in the excitation of stratospheric SAM anomalies and that the presence of these stratospheric SAM anomalies in turn excites and then maintains the tropospheric SAM anomalies via a positive eddy feedback.

scholarly journals Sensitivity of groundwater recharge using climatic analogues and HYDRUS-1D

2012 ◽  
Vol 16 (8) ◽  
pp. 2485-2497 ◽  
Author(s):  
B. Leterme ◽  
D. Mallants ◽  
D. Jacques
Keyword(s):  
Water Balance ◽  
Groundwater Recharge ◽  
Potential Evapotranspiration ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Annual Precipitation ◽  
Balance Model ◽  
Subtropical Climate ◽  
Northern Spain ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Hydrus 1D

Abstract. The sensitivity of groundwater recharge to different climate conditions was simulated using the approach of climatic analogue stations, i.e. stations presently experiencing climatic conditions corresponding to a possible future climate state. The study was conducted in the context of a safety assessment of a future near-surface disposal facility for low and intermediate level short-lived radioactive waste in Belgium; this includes estimation of groundwater recharge for the next millennia. Groundwater recharge was simulated using the Richards based soil water balance model HYDRUS-1D and meteorological time series from analogue stations. This study used four analogue stations for a warmer subtropical climate with changes of average annual precipitation and potential evapotranspiration from −42% to +5% and from +8% to +82%, respectively, compared to the present-day climate. Resulting water balance calculations yielded a change in groundwater recharge ranging from a decrease of 72% to an increase of 3% for the four different analogue stations. The Gijon analogue station (Northern Spain), considered as the most representative for the near future climate state in the study area, shows an increase of 3% of groundwater recharge for a 5% increase of annual precipitation. Calculations for a colder (tundra) climate showed a change in groundwater recharge ranging from a decrease of 97% to an increase of 32% for four different analogue stations, with an annual precipitation change from −69% to −14% compared to the present-day climate.

The Life Cycle and Variability of Antarctic Weak Polar Vortex Events

2022 ◽  
pp. 1-63
Keyword(s):  
Life Cycle ◽  
Polar Vortex ◽  
Southern Annular Mode ◽  
Austral Spring ◽  
Stratospheric Polar Vortex ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Scale Temperature ◽  
Precipitation Anomalies ◽  
Polar Stratosphere ◽  
The Antarctic

Abstract Motivated by the strong Antarctic sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) in 2019, a survey on the similar Antarctic weak polar events (WPV) is presented, including their life cycle, dynamics, seasonality, and climatic impacts. The Antarctic WPVs have a frequency of about four events per decade, with the 2002 event being the only major SSW. They show a similar life cycle to the SSWs in the Northern Hemisphere but have a longer duration. They are primarily driven by enhanced upward-propagating wavenumber 1 in the presence of a preconditioned polar stratosphere, i.e., a weaker and more contracted Antarctic stratospheric polar vortex. Antarctic WPVs occur mainly in the austral spring. Their early occurrence is preceded by an easterly anomaly in the middle and upper equatorial stratosphere besides the preconditioned polar stratosphere. The Antarctic WPVs increase the ozone concentration in the polar region and are associated with an advanced seasonal transition of the stratospheric polar vortex by about one week. Their frequency doubles after 2000 and is closely related to the advanced Antarctic stratospheric final warming in recent decades. The WPV-resultant negative phase of the southern annular mode descends to the troposphere and persists for about three months, leading to persistent hemispheric scale temperature and precipitation anomalies.

scholarly journals Comparative evaluation of conceptual and physical rainfall–runoff models

2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
R. K. Jaiswal ◽  
Sohrat Ali ◽  
Birendra Bharti
Keyword(s):  
Water Balance ◽  
Swat Model ◽  
Water Balance Model ◽  
Optimization Techniques ◽  
Balance Model ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Climatic Data ◽  
Rainfall Runoff ◽  
Tank Model ◽  
Australian Water

AbstractThe design of water resource structures needs long-term runoff data which is always a problem in developing countries due to the involvement of huge cost of operation and maintenance of gauge discharge sites. Hydrological modelling provides a solution to this problem by developing relationship between different hydrological processes. In the past, several models have been propagated to model runoff using simple empirical relationships between rainfall and runoff to complex physical model using spatially distributed information and time series data of climatic variables. In the present study, an attempt has been made to compare two conceptual models including TANK and Australian water balance model (AWBM) and a physically distributed but lumped on HRUs scale SWAT model for Tandula basin of Chhattisgarh (India). The daily data of reservoirs levels, evaporation, seepage and releases were used in a water balance model to compute runoff from the catchment for the period of 24 years from 1991 to 2014. The rainfall runoff library (RRL) tool was used to set up TANK model and AWBM using auto and genetic algorithm, respectively, and SWAT model with SWATCUP application using sequential uncertainty fitting as optimization techniques. Several tests for goodness of fit have been applied to compare the performance of conceptual and semi-distributed physical models. The analysis suggested that TANK model of RRL performed most appropriately among all the models applied in the analysis; however, SWAT model having spatial and climatic data can be used for impact assessment of change due to climate and land use in the basin.

scholarly journals Use of Landsat images for yield evaluation within a small plot

2014 ◽  
Vol 60 (No. 11) ◽  
pp. 501-506 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. Kumhálová ◽  
F. Zemek ◽  
P. Novák ◽  
O. Brovkina ◽  
M. Mayerová
Keyword(s):  
Winter Wheat ◽  
Water Distribution ◽  
Vegetation Indices ◽  
Wheat Yield ◽  
Moisture Stress ◽  
Stress Index ◽  
Growth Stages ◽  
Landsat Images ◽  
Topographic Attributes ◽  
Small Plot

Many factors can influence crop yield. One of the most important factors is topography, which can play a crucial role especially in dry years. Plant variability can be monitored by many methods. This paper evaluates the suitability of vegetation indices derived from satellite Landsat 5 TM data in comparison with yield, curvature and topography wetness index over a relatively small field (11.5 ha). Imageries were chosen from the years 2006 and 2010, when oat was grown and from 2005 and 2011, when winter wheat was grown. These images were taken in June in the same growth stage for every crop. It was confirmed that derived indices from Landsat images can be used for comparison with yield and selected topographic attributes and it can explain yield variability, which can be influenced by water distribution during growth stages. Correlation coefficient between moisture stress index and winter wheat yield was –0.816 in the image acquisition date of 4. 6. 2011.

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