Ocean Data Impacts in Global HYCOM*

2014 ◽  
Vol 31 (8) ◽  
pp. 1771-1791 ◽  
Author(s):  
James A. Cummings ◽  
Ole Martin Smedstad
Keyword(s):  
Geographic Region ◽  
Ocean Model ◽  
Sensor Data ◽  
Forecast Errors ◽  
Depth Range ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Satellite Sst ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Grid Points ◽  
The Impact

Abstract The impact of the assimilation of ocean observations on reducing global Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM) 48-h forecast errors is presented. The assessment uses an adjoint-based data impact procedure that characterizes the forecast impact of every observation assimilated, and it allows the observation impacts to be partitioned by data type, geographic region, and vertical level. The impact cost function is the difference between HYCOM 48- and 72-h forecast errors computed for temperature and salinity at all model levels and grid points. It is shown that routine assimilation of large numbers of observations consistently reduces global HYCOM 48-h forecast errors for both temperature and salinity. The largest error reduction is due to the assimilation of temperature and salinity profiles from the tropical fixed mooring arrays, followed by Argo, expendable bathythermograph (XBT), and animal sensor data. On a per-observation basis, the most important global observing system is Argo. The beneficial impact of assimilating Argo temperature and salinity profiles extends to all depths sampled, with salinity impacts maximum at the surface and temperature impacts showing a subsurface maximum in the 100–200-m-depth range. The reduced impact of near-surface Argo temperature profile levels is due to the vertical covariances in the assimilation that extend the influence of the large number of sea surface temperature (SST) observations to the base of the mixed layer. Application of the adjoint-based data impact system to identify a data quality problem in a geostationary satellite SST observing system is also provided.

scholarly journals Influence of a portable near-surface observing network on experimental ensemble forecasts of deep convection hazards during VORTEX-SE

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Aaron J. Hill ◽  
Christopher C. Weiss ◽  
David C. Dowell
Keyword(s):  
Data Assimilation ◽  
Subjective Evaluation ◽  
Deep Convection ◽  
Local Analysis ◽  
Forecast Errors ◽  
Ensemble Forecasts ◽  
Southeast United States ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Flow Through ◽  
The Impact

AbstractEnsemble forecasts are generated with and without the assimilation of near-surface observations from a portable, mesoscale network of StickNet platforms during the Verification and Origins of Rotation in Tornadoes EXperiment – Southeast (VORTEX-SE). Four VORTEX-SE intensive observing periods are selected to evaluate the impact of StickNet observations on forecasts and predictability of deep convection within the southeast United States. StickNet observations are assimilated with an experimental version of the HighResolution RapidRefresh Ensemble (HRRRE) in one experiment, and withheld in a control forecast experiment. Overall, StickNet observations are found to effectively reduce mesoscale analysis and forecast errors of temperature and dewpoint. Differences in ensemble analyses between the two parallel experiments are maximized near the StickNet array and then either propagate away with the mean low-level flow through the forecast period or remain quasi-stationary, reducing local analysis biases. Forecast errors of temperature and dewpoint exhibit periods of improvement and degradation relative to the control forecast, and error increases are largely driven on the storm scale. Convection predictability, measured through subjective evaluation and objective verification of forecast updraft helicity, is driven more by when forecasts are initialized (i.e., more data assimilation cycles with conventional observations) rather than the inclusion of StickNet observations in data assimilation. It is hypothesized that the full impact of assimilating these data is not realized in part due to poor sampling of forecast sensitive regions by the StickNet platforms, as identified through ensemble sensitivity analysis.

scholarly journals A Novel Multiscale Intensity Metric for Evaluation of Tropical Cyclone Intensity Forecasts

2014 ◽  
Vol 71 (4) ◽  
pp. 1292-1304 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tomislava Vukicevic ◽  
Eric Uhlhorn ◽  
Paul Reasor ◽  
Bradley Klotz
Keyword(s):  
Wind Speed ◽  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Microwave Radiometer ◽  
Maximum Speed ◽  
Forecast Errors ◽  
Cyclone Intensity ◽  
Maximum Wind ◽  
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Forecasts ◽  
The Difference ◽  
The Impact

Abstract In this study, a new multiscale intensity (MSI) metric for evaluating tropical cyclone (TC) intensity forecasts is presented. The metric consists of the resolvable and observable, low-wavenumber intensity represented by the sum of amplitudes of azimuthal wavenumbers 0 and 1 for wind speed within the TC vortex at the radius of maximum wind and a stochastic residual, all determined at 10-m elevation. The residual wind speed is defined as the difference between an estimate of maximum speed and the low-wavenumber intensity. The MSI metric is compared to the standard metric that includes only the maximum speed. Using stepped-frequency microwave radiometer wind speed observations from TC aircraft reconnaissance to estimate the low-wavenumber intensity and the National Hurricane Center’s best-track (BT) intensity for the maximum wind speed estimate, it is shown that the residual intensity is well represented as a stochastic quantity with small mean, standard deviation, and absolute norm values that are within the expected uncertainty of the BT estimates. The result strongly suggests that the practical predictability of TC intensity is determined by the observable and resolvable low-wavenumber intensity within the vortex. Verification of a set of high-resolution numerical forecasts using the MSI metric demonstrates that this metric provides more informative and more realistic estimates of the intensity forecast errors. It is also shown that the maximum speed metric allows for error compensation between the low-wavenumber and residual intensities, which could lead to forecast skill overestimation and inaccurate assessment of the impact of forecast system change on the skill.

scholarly journals Impact of Sea-State-Dependent Langmuir Turbulence on the Ocean Response to a Tropical Cyclone

2016 ◽  
Vol 144 (12) ◽  
pp. 4569-4590 ◽  
Author(s):  
Brandon G. Reichl ◽  
Isaac Ginis ◽  
Tetsu Hara ◽  
Biju Thomas ◽  
Tobias Kukulka ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Three Dimensional ◽  
Ocean Model ◽  
Stokes Drift ◽  
Langmuir Turbulence ◽  
Sea State ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Ocean Response ◽  
State Dependent ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Tropical cyclones are fueled by the air–sea heat flux, which is reduced when the ocean surface cools due to mixed layer deepening and upwelling. Wave-driven Langmuir turbulence can significantly modify these processes. This study investigates the impact of sea-state-dependent Langmuir turbulence on the three-dimensional ocean response to a tropical cyclone in coupled wave–ocean simulations. The Stokes drift is computed from the simulated wave spectrum using the WAVEWATCH III wave model and passed to the three-dimensional Princeton Ocean Model. The Langmuir turbulence impact is included in the vertical mixing of the ocean model by adding the Stokes drift to the shear of the vertical mean current and by including Langmuir turbulence enhancements to the K-profile parameterization (KPP) scheme. Results are assessed by comparing simulations with explicit (sea-state dependent) and implicit (independent of sea state) Langmuir turbulence parameterizations, as well as with turbulence driven by shear alone. The results demonstrate that the sea-state-dependent Langmuir turbulence parameterization significantly modifies the three-dimensional ocean response to a tropical cyclone. This is due to the reduction of upwelling and horizontal advection where the near-surface currents are reduced by Langmuir turbulence. The implicit scheme not only misses the impact of sea-state dependence on the surface cooling, but it also misrepresents the impact of the Langmuir turbulence on the Eulerian advection. This suggests that explicitly resolving the sea-state-dependent Langmuir turbulence will lead to increased accuracy in predicting the ocean response in coupled tropical cyclone–ocean models.

scholarly journals Improving Met Office seasonal predictions of Arctic sea ice using assimilation of CryoSat-2 thickness

2018 ◽  
Vol 12 (11) ◽  
pp. 3419-3438 ◽  
Author(s):  
Edward W. Blockley ◽  
K. Andrew Peterson
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Ice Cover ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
Ice Thickness ◽  
Forecast Errors ◽  
Sea Ice Concentration ◽  
Sea Ice Thickness ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Arctic Sea ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. Interest in seasonal predictions of Arctic sea ice has been increasing in recent years owing, primarily, to the sharp reduction in Arctic sea-ice cover observed over the last few decades, a decline that is projected to continue. The prospect of increased human industrial activity in the region, as well as scientific interest in the predictability of sea ice, provides important motivation for understanding, and improving, the skill of Arctic predictions. Several operational forecasting centres now routinely produce seasonal predictions of sea-ice cover using coupled atmosphere–ocean–sea-ice models. Although assimilation of sea-ice concentration into these systems is commonplace, sea-ice thickness observations, being much less mature, are typically not assimilated. However, many studies suggest that initialization of winter sea-ice thickness could lead to improved prediction of Arctic summer sea ice. Here, for the first time, we directly assess the impact of winter sea-ice thickness initialization on the skill of summer seasonal predictions by assimilating CryoSat-2 thickness data into the Met Office's coupled seasonal prediction system (GloSea). We show a significant improvement in predictive skill of Arctic sea-ice extent and ice-edge location for forecasts of September Arctic sea ice made from the beginning of the melt season. The improvements in sea-ice cover lead to further improvement of near-surface air temperature and pressure fields across the region. A clear relationship between modelled winter thickness biases and summer extent errors is identified which supports the theory that Arctic winter thickness provides some predictive capability for summer ice extent, and further highlights the importance that modelled winter thickness biases can have on the evolution of forecast errors through the melt season.

scholarly journals Eddy Diffusivity Estimates from Lagrangian Trajectories Simulated with Ocean Models and Surface Drifter Data—A Case Study for the Greater Agulhas System

2018 ◽  
Vol 48 (1) ◽  
pp. 175-196 ◽  
Author(s):  
Siren Rühs ◽  
Victor Zhurbas ◽  
Inga M. Koszalka ◽  
Jonathan V. Durgadoo ◽  
Arne Biastoch
Keyword(s):  
Eddy Diffusivity ◽  
Ocean Model ◽  
Mean Flow ◽  
Lagrangian Analysis ◽  
Strong Suppression ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Eddy Diffusivities ◽  
Surface Drifter ◽  
Ocean Models ◽  
The Impact

AbstractThe Lagrangian analysis of sets of particles advected with the flow fields of ocean models is used to study connectivity, that is, exchange pathways, time scales, and volume transports, between distinct oceanic regions. One important factor influencing the dispersion of fluid particles and, hence, connectivity is the Lagrangian eddy diffusivity, which quantifies the influence of turbulent processes on the rate of particle dispersal. Because of spatial and temporal discretization, turbulence is not fully resolved in modeled velocities, and the concept of eddy diffusivity is used to parameterize the impact of unresolved processes. However, the relations between observation- and model-based Lagrangian eddy diffusivity estimates, as well as eddy parameterizations, are not clear. This study presents an analysis of the spatially variable near-surface lateral eddy diffusivity estimates obtained from Lagrangian trajectories simulated with 5-day mean velocities from an eddy-resolving ocean model (INALT01) for the Agulhas system. INALT01 features diffusive regimes for dynamically different regions, some of which exhibit strong suppression of eddy mixing by mean flow, and it is consistent with the pattern and magnitude of drifter-based eddy diffusivity estimates. Using monthly mean velocities decreases the estimated diffusivities less than eddy kinetic energy, supporting the idea that large and persistent eddy features dominate eddy diffusivities. For a noneddying ocean model (ORCA05), Lagrangian eddy diffusivities are greatly reduced, particularly when the Gent and McWilliams parameterization of mesoscale eddies is employed.

Sensitivity of an Ocean General Circulation Model to a Parameterization of Near-Surface Eddy Fluxes

2008 ◽  
Vol 21 (6) ◽  
pp. 1192-1208 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gokhan Danabasoglu ◽  
Raffaele Ferrari ◽  
James C. McWilliams
Keyword(s):  
Boundary Layer ◽  
Transition Layer ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Potential Temperature ◽  
Ocean Surface ◽  
Surface Boundary ◽  
Depth Range ◽  
Climate System Model ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
The Impact

Abstract A simplified version of the near-boundary eddy flux parameterization developed recently by Ferrari et al. has been implemented in the NCAR Community Climate System Model (CCSM3) ocean component for the surface boundary only. This scheme includes the effects of diabatic mesoscale fluxes within the surface layer. The experiments with the new parameterization show significant improvements compared to a control integration that tapers the effects of the eddies as the surface is approached. Such surface tapering is typical of present implementations of eddy transport in some current ocean models. The comparison is also promising versus available observations and results from an eddy-resolving model. These improvements include the elimination of strong, near-surface, eddy-induced circulations and a better heat transport profile in the upper ocean. The experiments with the new scheme also show reduced abyssal cooling and diminished trends in the potential temperature drifts. Furthermore, the need for any ad hoc, near-surface taper functions is eliminated. The impact of the new parameterization is mostly associated with the modified eddy-induced velocity treatment near the surface. The new parameterization acts in the depth range exposed to enhanced turbulent mixing at the ocean surface. This depth range includes the actively turbulent boundary layer and a transition layer underneath, composed of waters intermittently exposed to mixing. The mixed layer, that is, the regions of weak stratification at the ocean surface, is found to be a good proxy for the sum of the boundary layer depth and transition layer thickness.

scholarly journals Improving Met Office seasonal forecasts of Arctic sea ice using assimilation of CryoSat-2 thickness

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Edward W. Blockley ◽  
K. Andrew Peterson
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Ice Cover ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
Ice Thickness ◽  
Forecast Errors ◽  
Seasonal Forecasts ◽  
Sea Ice Thickness ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Arctic Sea ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. Interest in seasonal predictions of Arctic sea ice has been increasing in recent years owing, primarily, to the sharp reduction in Arctic sea ice cover observed over the last few decades, which is projected to continue. The prospect of increased human industrial activity in the region, as well as scientific interest in the predictability of sea ice, provides important motivation for understanding, and improving, the skill of Arctic predictions. Several operational forecasting centres now routinely produce seasonal predictions of sea ice cover using coupled atmosphere-ocean-sea ice models. Although assimilation of sea ice concentration into these systems is commonplace, sea ice thickness observations, being much less mature, are typically not assimilated. However many studies suggest that initialisation of winter sea ice thickness could lead to improved prediction of Arctic summer sea ice. Here, for the first time, we directly assess the impact of winter sea ice thickness initialisation on the skill of seasonal summer forecasts by assimilating CryoSat-2 thickness data into the Met Office's coupled seasonal forecasting system (GloSea). We show a significant improvement in predictive skill of Arctic sea ice extent and ice-edge location for forecasts of September Arctic sea ice made from the beginning of the melt season. The improvements in sea ice cover lead to further improvement of near-surface air temperature and pressure fields across the region. A clear relationship between modelled winter thickness biases and summer extent errors is identified which supports the theory that Arctic winter thickness provides some predictive capability for summer ice extent, and further highlights the importance that modelled winter thickness biases can have on the evolution of forecast errors through the melt season.

Evaluation of the impact of public investment programs on social and economic performance of territories

2019 ◽  
pp. 109-123
Author(s):  
I. E. Limonov ◽  
M. V. Nesena
Keyword(s):  
Bayesian Modeling ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Public Investment ◽  
Difference In Differences ◽  
The Public ◽  
Export Activity ◽  
Regional Investment ◽  
The Difference ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Development Institution

The purpose of this study is to evaluate the impact of public investment programs on the socio-economic development of territories. As a case, the federal target programs for the development of regions and investment programs of the financial development institution — Vnesheconombank, designed to solve the problems of regional development are considered. The impact of the public interventions were evaluated by the “difference in differences” method using Bayesian modeling. The results of the evaluation suggest the positive impact of federal target programs on the total factor productivity of regions and on innovation; and that regional investment programs of Vnesheconombank are improving the export activity. All of the investments considered are likely to have contributed to the reduction of unemployment, but their implementation has been accompanied by an increase in social inequality.

The Use of Multimedia and its Impact on Bangladeshi EFL Learners at Tertiary Level

2020 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
pp. 150
Author(s):  
Farzana Sharmin Pamela Islam
Keyword(s):  
Language Learning ◽  
Academic Writing ◽  
Teaching And Learning ◽  
English Language ◽  
Capital City ◽  
Tertiary Level ◽  
Language Classroom ◽  
The Difference ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact

As 21st century is the era of modern technologies with different aspects, it offers us to make the best use of them. After tape recorder and overhead projector (OHP), multimedia has become an important part of language classroom facilities for its unique and effective application in delivering and learning lesson. Although in many parts of Bangladesh, a South Asian developing country, where English enjoys the status of a foreign language, the use of multimedia in teaching and learning is viewed as a matter of luxury. However, nowadays the usefulness and the necessity of it are well recognized by the academics as well as the government. The study aims to focus on the difference between a traditional classroom void of multimedia and multimedia equipped classrooms at university level by explaining how multimedia support the students with enhanced opportunity to interact with diverse texts that give them more in-depth comprehension of the subject. It also focuses on audio-visual advantage of multimedia on the students’ English language learning. The study has followed a qualitative method to get an in-depth understanding of the impact of using multimedia in an English language classroom at tertiary level. For this purpose, the data have been collected from two different sources. Firstly, from students’ written response to  an open ended question as to their comparative experience of learning  lessons with and without multimedia facilities; and secondly, through  observation of English language classes at a private university of Dhaka, the capital city of Bangladesh. The discussion of the study is limited to  the use of multimedia in English language classroom using cartoons, images and music with a view to enhance students’ skills in academic writing, critical analysis of image and critical appreciation of music. For this purpose, cartoons in English language, images from Google and music from You Tube have got focused discussion in this paper.

Case study: Prediction and field tests of railway noise and effects of a low-height noise barrier

2020 ◽  
Vol 68 (4) ◽  
pp. 303-314
Author(s):  
Yuna Park ◽  
Hyo-In Koh ◽  
University of Science and Technology, Transpo ◽  
University of Science and Technology, Transpo ◽  
University of Science and Technology, Transpo ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
High Speed ◽  
Field Tests ◽  
Residential Areas ◽  
Railway Systems ◽  
Railway Noise ◽  
Sound Levels ◽  
Noise Barrier ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Reduction Effect ◽  
The Impact

Railway noise is calculated to predict the impact of new or reconstructed railway tracks on nearby residential areas. The results are used to prepare adequate counter- measures, and the calculation results are directly related to the cost of the action plans. The calculated values were used to produce noise maps for each area of inter- est. The Schall 03 2012 is one of the most frequently used methods for the production of noise maps. The latest version was released in 2012 and uses various input para- meters associated with the latest rail vehicles and track systems in Germany. This version has not been sufficiently used in South Korea, and there is a lack of standard guidelines and a precise manual for Korean railway systems. Thus, it is not clear what input parameters will match specific local cases. This study investigates the modeling procedure for Korean railway systems and the differences between calcu- lated railway sound levels and measured values obtained using the Schall 03 2012 model. Depending on the location of sound receivers, the difference between the cal- culated and measured values was within approximately 4 dB for various train types. In the case of high-speed trains, the value was approximately 7 dB. A noise-reducing measure was also modeled. The noise reduction effect of a low-height noise barrier system was predicted and evaluated for operating railway sites within the frame- work of a national research project in Korea. The comparison of calculated and measured values showed differences within 2.5 dB.

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