scholarly journals Using Variable-Resolution Meshes to Model Tropical Cyclones in the Community Atmosphere Model

2014 ◽  
Vol 142 (3) ◽  
pp. 1221-1239 ◽  
Author(s):  
Colin M. Zarzycki ◽  
Christiane Jablonowski ◽  
Mark A. Taylor
Keyword(s):  
High Resolution ◽  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
Degrees Of Freedom ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Spectral Element ◽  
Tropical Cyclogenesis ◽  
Uniform Grid ◽  
Test Case ◽  
Variable Resolution

Abstract A statically nested, variable-mesh option has recently been introduced into the Community Atmosphere Model’s (CAM's) Spectral Element (SE) dynamical core that has become the default in CAM version 5.3. This paper presents a series of tests of increasing complexity that highlight the use of variable-resolution grids in CAM-SE to improve tropical cyclone representation by dynamically resolving storms without requiring the computational demand of a global high-resolution grid. As a simplified initial test, a dry vortex is advected through grid transition regions in variable-resolution meshes on an irrotational planet with the CAM subgrid parameterization package turned off. Vortex structure and intensity is only affected by grid resolution and no spurious artifacts are observed. CAM-SE model simulations using an idealized tropical cyclone test case on an aquaplanet show no numerical distortion or wave reflection when the cyclone interacts with an abrupt transition region. Using the same test case, the authors demonstrate that a regionally refined mesh with significantly fewer degrees of freedom can produce the same local results as a globally uniform grid. Additionally, the authors discuss a more complex aquaplanet experiment with meridionally varying sea surface temperatures that reproduces a quasi-realistic global climate. Tropical cyclogenesis is facilitated without the need for vortex bogusing in a high-resolution patch embedded within a global grid that is otherwise too coarse to resolve realistic tropical cyclones in CAM.

Tropical Cyclogenesis Associated with Kelvin Waves and the Madden–Julian Oscillation

2011 ◽  
Vol 139 (9) ◽  
pp. 2723-2734 ◽  
Author(s):  
Carl J. Schreck ◽  
John Molinari
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
North Pacific ◽  
Western North Pacific ◽  
Diabatic Heating ◽  
Kelvin Waves ◽  
Tropical Cyclogenesis ◽  
Madden Julian Oscillation ◽  
Convective Envelope

The Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) influences tropical cyclone formation around the globe. Convectively coupled Kelvin waves are often embedded within the MJO, but their role in tropical cyclogenesis remains uncertain. This case study identifies the influences of the MJO and a series of Kelvin waves on the formation of two tropical cyclones. Typhoons Rammasun and Chataan developed in the western North Pacific on 28 June 2002. Two weeks earlier, conditions had been unfavorable for tropical cyclogenesis because of uniform trade easterlies and a lack of organized convection. The easterlies gave way to equatorial westerlies as the convective envelope of the Madden–Julian oscillation moved into the region. A series of three Kelvin waves modulated the development of the westerlies. Cyclonic potential vorticity (PV) developed in a strip between the growing equatorial westerlies and the persistent trade easterlies farther poleward. Rammasun and Chataan emerged from the apparent breakdown of this strip. The cyclonic PV developed in association with diabatic heating from both the MJO and the Kelvin waves. The tropical cyclones also developed during the largest superposition of equatorial westerlies from the MJO and the Kelvin waves. This chain of events suggests that the MJO and the Kelvin waves each played a role in the development of Rammasun and Chataan.

scholarly journals Experimental Tropical Cyclone Forecasts Using a Variable-Resolution Global Model

2015 ◽  
Vol 143 (10) ◽  
pp. 4012-4037 ◽  
Author(s):  
Colin M. Zarzycki ◽  
Christiane Jablonowski
Keyword(s):  
High Resolution ◽  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Initial Conditions ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Horizontal Resolution ◽  
Hurricane Sandy ◽  
Track Forecast ◽  
Time Step ◽  
Variable Resolution ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Tropical cyclone (TC) forecasts at 14-km horizontal resolution (0.125°) are completed using variable-resolution (V-R) grids within the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM). Forecasts are integrated twice daily from 1 August to 31 October for both 2012 and 2013, with a high-resolution nest centered over the North Atlantic and eastern Pacific Ocean basins. Using the CAM version 5 (CAM5) physical parameterization package, regional refinement is shown to significantly increase TC track forecast skill relative to unrefined grids (55 km, 0.5°). For typical TC forecast integration periods (approximately 1 week), V-R forecasts are able to nearly identically reproduce the flow field of a globally uniform high-resolution forecast. Simulated intensity is generally too strong for forecasts beyond 72 h. This intensity bias is robust regardless of whether the forecast is forced with observed or climatological sea surface temperatures and is not significantly mitigated in a suite of sensitivity simulations aimed at investigating the impact of model time step and CAM’s deep convection parameterization. Replacing components of the default physics with Cloud Layers Unified by Binormals (CLUBB) produces a statistically significant improvement in forecast intensity at longer lead times, although significant structural differences in forecasted TCs exist. CAM forecasts the recurvature of Hurricane Sandy into the northeastern United States 60 h earlier than the Global Forecast System (GFS) model using identical initial conditions, demonstrating the sensitivity of TC forecasts to model configuration. Computational costs associated with V-R simulations are dramatically decreased relative to globally uniform high-resolution simulations, demonstrating that variable-resolution techniques are a promising tool for future numerical weather prediction applications.

A Global View of Equatorial Waves and Tropical Cyclogenesis

2012 ◽  
Vol 140 (3) ◽  
pp. 774-788 ◽  
Author(s):  
Carl J. Schreck ◽  
John Molinari ◽  
Anantha Aiyyer
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
North Pacific ◽  
Western North Pacific ◽  
The Philippines ◽  
Tropical Cyclogenesis ◽  
Equatorial Waves ◽  
Wave Type ◽  
The North ◽  
Equatorial Wave

Abstract This study investigates the number of tropical cyclone formations that can be attributed to the enhanced convection from equatorial waves within each basin. Tropical depression (TD)-type disturbances (i.e., easterly waves) were the primary tropical cyclone precursors over the Northern Hemisphere basins, particularly the eastern North Pacific and the Atlantic. In the Southern Hemisphere, however, the number of storms attributed to TD-type disturbances and equatorial Rossby waves were roughly equivalent. Equatorward of 20°N, tropical cyclones formed without any equatorial wave precursor most often over the eastern North Pacific and least often over the western North Pacific. The Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) was an important tropical cyclone precursor over the north Indian, south Indian, and western North Pacific basins. The MJO also affected tropical cyclogenesis by modulating the amplitudes of higher-frequency waves. Each wave type reached the attribution threshold 1.5 times more often, and tropical cyclogenesis was 3 times more likely, within positive MJO-filtered rainfall anomalies than within negative anomalies. The greatest MJO modulation was observed for storms attributed to Kelvin waves over the north Indian Ocean. The large rainfall rates associated with tropical cyclones can alter equatorial wave–filtered anomalies. This study quantifies the contamination over each basin. Tropical cyclones contributed more than 20% of the filtered variance for each wave type over large potions of every basin except the South Pacific. The largest contamination, exceeding 60%, occurred for the TD band near the Philippines. To mitigate the contamination, the tropical cyclone–related anomalies were removed before filtering in this study.

scholarly journals Attributing Tropical Cyclogenesis to Equatorial Waves in the Western North Pacific

2011 ◽  
Vol 68 (2) ◽  
pp. 195-209 ◽  
Author(s):  
Carl J. Schreck ◽  
John Molinari ◽  
Karen I. Mohr
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
Wave Spectrum ◽  
Vertical Wind Shear ◽  
Warm Season ◽  
Threshold Value ◽  
Rainfall Anomaly ◽  
Tropical Cyclogenesis ◽  
Positive Anomaly ◽  
Equatorial Wave

Abstract Tropical cyclogenesis is attributed to an equatorial wave when the filtered rainfall anomaly exceeds a threshold value at the genesis location. It is argued that 0 mm day−1 (simply requiring a positive anomaly) is too small a threshold because unrelated noise can produce a positive anomaly. A threshold of 6 mm day−1 is too large because two-thirds of storms would have no precursor disturbance. Between these extremes, consistent results are found for a range of thresholds from 2 to 4 mm day−1. Roughly twice as many tropical cyclones are attributed to tropical depression (TD)-type disturbances as to equatorial Rossby waves, mixed Rossby–gravity waves, or Kelvin waves. The influence of the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) is even smaller. The use of variables such as vorticity and vertical wind shear in other studies gives a larger contribution for the MJO. It is suggested that its direct influence on the rainfall in forming tropical cyclones is less than for other variables. The impacts of tropical cyclone–related precipitation anomalies are also presented. Tropical cyclones can contribute more than 20% of the warm-season rainfall and 50% of its total variance. The influence of tropical cyclones on the equatorial wave spectrum is generally small. The exception occurs in shorter-wavelength westward-propagating waves, for which tropical cyclones represent up to 27% of the variance. Tropical cyclones also significantly contaminate wave-filtered rainfall anomalies in their immediate vicinity. To mitigate this effect, the tropical cyclone–related anomalies were removed before filtering in this study.

scholarly journals Tropical cyclone genesis across palaeoclimates

2015 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 181-220 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. H. Koh ◽  
C. M. Brierley
Keyword(s):  
Carbon Dioxide ◽  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Tropical Cyclogenesis ◽  
Tropical Cyclone Genesis ◽  
Inter Tropical Convergence Zone ◽  
Potential Index ◽  
Cyclone Genesis

Abstract. Tropical cyclone genesis is investigated for the Pliocene, Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and the mid-Holocene through analysis of five climate models. The genesis potential index is used to estimate this from large scale atmospheric properties. The mid-Pliocene and LGM characterise periods where carbon dioxide levels were higher and lower than pre-industrial respectively, while the mid-Holocene differed primarily in its orbital configuration. The number of tropical cyclones formed each year is found to be fairly consistent across the various palaeoclimates. Although there is some model uncertainty in the change of global annual tropical cyclone frequency, there are coherent changes in the spatial patterns of tropical cyclogenesis. During the Pliocene and LGM, changes in carbon dioxide led to sea surface temperature changes throughout the tropics, yet the potential intensity of tropical cyclones appears relatively insensitive to these variations. Changes in tropical cyclone genesis during the mid-Holocene are observed to be asymmetric about the Equator: genesis is reduced in the Northern Hemisphere, but enhanced in the Southern Hemisphere. This is clearly driven by the altered seasonal insolation. Nonetheless, the enhanced seasonality may have driven localised effects on tropical cyclone genesis, through changes to the strength of monsoons and shifting of the inter-tropical convergence zone. Trends in future tropical cyclone genesis are neither consistent between the five models studied, nor with the palaeoclimate results. It is not clear why this should be the case.

scholarly journals High resolution simulation of the South Asian monsoon using a variable resolution global climate model

2013 ◽  
Vol 41 (1) ◽  
pp. 173-194 ◽  
Author(s):  
T. P Sabin ◽  
R. Krishnan ◽  
Josefine Ghattas ◽  
Sebastien Denvil ◽  
Jean-Louis Dufresne ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
High Resolution ◽  
South Asian ◽  
Asian Monsoon ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
South Asian Monsoon ◽  
The South ◽  
Variable Resolution ◽  
Resolution Simulation

Projections of future tropical cyclone damage with a high-resolution global climate model

2017 ◽  
Vol 146 (3-4) ◽  
pp. 575-585 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Gettelman ◽  
D. N. Bresch ◽  
C. C. Chen ◽  
J. E. Truesdale ◽  
J. T. Bacmeister
Keyword(s):  
High Resolution ◽  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Model

scholarly journals An intercomparison of tropical cyclone best-track products for the Southwest Pacific

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrew D. Magee ◽  
Danielle C. Verdon-Kidd ◽  
Anthony S. Kiem
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
Environmental Conditions ◽  
Tropical Cyclogenesis ◽  
Southwest Pacific ◽  
Temporal Differences ◽  
Joint Typhoon Warning Center ◽  
Over Time

Abstract. Recent efforts to understand tropical cyclone (TC) activity in the Southwest Pacific (SWP) have led to the development of numerous TC databases. The methods used to compile each database vary and are based on data from different meteorological centres, standalone TC databases and archived synoptic charts. Therefore the aims of this study are to (i) examine spatial and temporal differences between the TC databases, and, (ii) investigate how changes in observational technology influence the temporal quality of TC records over time. To achieve this, we compare three best-track TC databases for the SWP region (0°–35°S, 135°E–120°W) from 1945–2011: the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), the International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS), and the Southwest Pacific Enhanced Archive of Tropical Cyclones (SPEArTC). The results of this study suggest that SPEArTC is the most complete repository of TCs for the SWP region. In particular, we show that the SPEArTC database includes a number of additional TCs, not included in either the JTWC or IBTrACS database. These SPEArTC events do occur under environmental conditions conducive to tropical cyclogenesis (TC genesis). Further, while changes in observational technologies from 1945 have undoubtedly improved our ability to detect and monitor TCs, we show that the number of TCs detected prior to the satellite era (1945–1969) are not statistically different to those in the post-satellite era (post-1970). Although studies on TC intensity should be limited to post-satellite/post-geostationary satellite eras only, this study suggests that SPEArTC data (from 1945) may be used to investigate long-term variability of TC counts and TC genesis locations.

scholarly journals Global climate disruption and regional climate shelters after the Toba supereruption

2021 ◽  
Vol 118 (29) ◽  
pp. e2013046118
Author(s):  
Benjamin A. Black ◽  
Jean-François Lamarque ◽  
Daniel R. Marsh ◽  
Anja Schmidt ◽  
Charles G. Bardeen
Keyword(s):  
High Resolution ◽  
Human Evolution ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Test Case ◽  
Sulfur Emission ◽  
Community Earth System Model ◽  
Climate Model Simulations ◽  
Paleoclimate Records

The Toba eruption ∼74,000 y ago was the largest volcanic eruption since the start of the Pleistocene and represents an important test case for understanding the effects of large explosive eruptions on climate and ecosystems. However, the magnitude and repercussions of climatic changes driven by the eruption are strongly debated. High-resolution paleoclimate and archaeological records from Africa find little evidence for the disruption of climate or human activity in the wake of the eruption in contrast with a controversial link with a bottleneck in human evolution and climate model simulations predicting strong volcanic cooling for up to a decade after a Toba-scale eruption. Here, we use a large ensemble of high-resolution Community Earth System Model (CESM1.3) simulations to reconcile climate model predictions with paleoclimate records, accounting for uncertainties in the magnitude of Toba sulfur emissions with high and low emission scenarios. We find a near-zero probability of annual mean surface temperature anomalies exceeding 4 °C in most of Africa in contrast with near 100% probabilities of cooling this severe in Asia and North America for the high sulfur emission case. The likelihood of strong decreases in precipitation is low in most of Africa. Therefore, even Toba sulfur release at the upper range of plausible estimates remains consistent with the muted response in Africa indicated by paleoclimate proxies. Our results provide a probabilistic view of the uneven patterns of volcanic climate disruption during a crucial interval in human evolution, with implications for understanding the range of environmental impacts from past and future supereruptions.

scholarly journals Atlantic tropical cyclones downscaled from climate reanalyses show increasing activity over past 150 years

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Kerry Emanuel
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Tropical Cyclone Activity ◽  
Anthropogenic Aerosols ◽  
Cyclone Activity ◽  
Model Driven ◽  
Early Portion ◽  
Atlantic Tropical Cyclone

AbstractHistorical records of Atlantic hurricane activity, extending back to 1851, show increasing activity over time, but much or all of this trend has been attributed to lack of observations in the early portion of the record. Here we use a tropical cyclone downscaling model driven by three global climate analyses that are based mostly on sea surface temperature and surface pressure data. The results support earlier statistically-based inferences that storms were undercounted in the 19th century, but in contrast to earlier work, show increasing tropical cyclone activity through the period, interrupted by a prominent hurricane drought in the 1970s and 80 s that we attribute to anthropogenic aerosols. In agreement with earlier work, we show that most of the variability of North Atlantic tropical cyclone activity over the last century was directly related to regional rather than global climate change. Most metrics of tropical cyclones downscaled over all the tropics show weak and/or insignificant trends over the last century, illustrating the special nature of North Atlantic tropical cyclone climatology.

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