The Economic Effects of Business to Business Internet Activity

2001 ◽  
Vol 175 ◽  
pp. 95-108 ◽  
Author(s):  
Martin Brookes ◽  
Zaki Wahhaj
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Central Banks ◽  
Economic Effects ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Long Run ◽  
If Current ◽  
Macroeconomic Effects ◽  
The Cost ◽  
Business To Business

This article argues that an effective way to analyse the macroeconomic effects of business-to-business electronic commerce is to regard it as a decline in the cost of information to producers. Calculations based on input-output tables and the IMF's Multimod macroeconomic model show that current estimates of such savings translate into about a 5 per cent long-run increase in output in the major industrialised economies. In the medium term, although the deflationary effects of the shock would provide greater room to central banks to keep interest rates low, the simulation results also hint at short-term inflation risks if current demand outstrips supply in anticipation of higher future incomes.

Determinants of Treasury-LIBOR Swap Spreads

2005 ◽  
Vol 08 (04) ◽  
pp. 687-705 ◽  
Author(s):  
D. K. Malhotra ◽  
Vivek Bhargava ◽  
Mukesh Chaudhry
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Default Risk ◽  
Yield Curve ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Interest Rate Volatility ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Swap Spreads

Using data from the Treasury versus London Interbank Offer Swap Rates (LIBOR) for October 1987 to June 1998, this paper examines the determinants of swap spreads in the Treasury-LIBOR interest rate swap market. This study hypothesizes Treasury-LIBOR swap spreads as a function of the Treasury rate of comparable maturity, the slope of the yield curve, the volatility of short-term interest rates, a proxy for default risk, and liquidity in the swap market. The study finds that, in the long-run, swap spreads are negatively related to the yield curve slope and liquidity in the swap market. We also find that swap spreads are positively related to the short-term interest rate volatility. In the short-run, swap market's response to higher default risk seems to be higher spread between the bid and offer rates.

scholarly journals Risks and the influence of negative interest rates on economic activity: a case study of Sweden, Denmark, and Switzerland

2020 ◽  
Vol 15 (1) ◽  
pp. 30-41
Author(s):  
Liběna Černohorská ◽  
Darina Kubicová
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Economic Activity ◽  
Central Banks ◽  
Time Interval ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Stock Indices ◽  
Negative Interest Rates ◽  
The Impact

The purpose of this paper is to analyze the impact of negative interest rates on economic activity in a selected group of countries, in particular Sweden, Denmark, and Switzerland, for the period 2009–2018. The central banks of these countries were among the first to implement negative interest rates to revive the economic growth. Therefore, this study analyzed long- and short-term relationships between interest rates announced by central banks and gross domestic product and blue chip stock indices. Time series analysis was conducted using Engle-Granger cointegration analysis and Granger causality testing to identify long- and short-term relationship. The first step, using the Akaike criteria, was to determine the optimal delay of the entire time interval for the analyzed periods. Time series that seem to be stationary were excluded based on the results of the Dickey-Fuller test. Further testing continued with the Engle-Granger test if the conditions were met. It was designed to identify co-integration relationships that would show correlation between the selected variables. These tests showed that at a significance level of 0.05, there is no co-integration between any time series in the countries analyzed. On the basis of these analyses, it was determined that there were no long-term relationships between interest rates and GDP or stock indices for these countries during the monitored time period. Using Granger causality, the study only confirmed short-term relationship between interest rates and GDP for all examined countries, though not between interest rates and the stock indices. Acknowledgment The paper has been created with the financial support of The Czech Science Foundation GACR 18-05244S – Innovative Approaches to Credit Risk Management.

Chapter 1. The Home Economy

1989 ◽  
Vol 127 ◽  
pp. 7-25
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Balance Of Payments ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Regional Pattern ◽  
Economic Cycles ◽  
The Past ◽  
Alternative Scenarios

On this occasion we have adopted a rather different format for this chapter from the customary one. Part One begins with an analysis of some of the most important developments of the past few years, with notes on the deterioration in the balance of payments, on the fall in the savings ratio and on the acceleration of inflation. Next we discuss some of the problems associated with economic forecasting. We analyse the errors made last year and compare them with the error margins normally associated with short-term forecasts of this kind. We look at the behaviour of the economy at the corresponding stage of previous economic cycles. And we consider the best way of forecasting GDP when there are discrepancies between the measures of its growth in the past. Our central forecasts for 1989 and 1990 are described briefly in the text of Part Two, and more fully set out in the usual tables. We end in Part Three with a discussion of alternative scenarios for the medium term, with particular reference to their implications for interest rates and the exchange rate. An appendix describes the regional pattern of unemployment and the way it has changed since the early 1980s.

scholarly journals Sustainable Approach to the Normalization Process of the UK’s Monetary Policy

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (21) ◽  
pp. 9229
Author(s):  
Aleksandra Nocoń
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Synthesis Method ◽  
Balance Sheet ◽  
Central Banks ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Effect Analysis ◽  
Short Term Prediction ◽  
Normalization Process

It has been more than a decade since central banks, in the face of the global financial crisis, implemented a set of unconventional initiatives that included a rapid and significant decrease in their main interest rates and an unprecedented balance sheet policy. Thus far, they still have not returned their monetary policy to the pre-crisis framework and have not implemented a normalization process. Currently, a trend of using econometric models in monetary policy for forecasting purposes has been observed. Among these models, Bayesian vector autoregression models (BVAR models) are increasingly being used by central banks. The main aim of this study was to conduct an empirical verification of the BVAR model’s usage for short-term prediction which could then be used for a sustainable (ordered) normalization process for the UK’s monetary policy. This study verifies a research hypothesis which states that the BVAR model might be a useful tool in the Bank of England’s decision-making process regarding the normalization of its monetary policy. Additionally, the cause and effect analysis, observation method, document analysis method, and synthesis method were also considered. The conducted research indicates that a large BVAR model has a significant predictive value for short-term forecasting.

scholarly journals Over- and Underbidding in Central Bank Open Market Operations Conducted as Fixed Rate Tender

2005 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 95-130 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ulrich Bindseil
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Central Bank ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Banking System ◽  
Central Banks ◽  
General Question ◽  
Open Market ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Fixed Rate ◽  
Proposed Model

Abstract Open market operations play a key role in allocating central bank funds to the banking system and thereby in steering short-term interest rates in line with the stance of monetary policy. Many central banks apply so-called ‘fixed rate tender’ auctions in their open market operations. This paper presents, on the basis of a survey of central bank experience, a model of bidding in such tenders. In their conduct of fixed rate tenders, many central banks faced specifically an ‘under-’ and an ‘overbidding’ problem. These phenomena are revisited in the light of the proposed model, and the more general question of the optimal tender procedure and allotment policy of central banks is addressed.

scholarly journals Causas, consecuencias y regulación del capital golondrina: el caso de Costa Rica

1969 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
pp. 7-20
Author(s):  
José Fulvio Sandoval Vásquez
Keyword(s):  
Economic Theory ◽  
Costa Rica ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Capital Flows ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Regulatory Measures ◽  
Macroeconomic Effects

El siguiente artículo analiza el ingreso de capital financiero de corto plazo (capital golondrina) en el país a partir del segundo semestre de 2012. Interesa revisar lo que establece la teoría económica sobre su origen, causas y consecuencias, así como las medidas regulatorias que pueden tomar las autoridades económicas para limitar estos flujos y contrarrestar sus efectos macroeconómicos. Finalmente, a la luz de estos desarrollos se revisa la propuesta del Poder Ejecutivo tendente a desestimular el arribo de estos capitales.ABSTRACT In this paper we analyze the entry of short-term financial capitals to the country in the second half of 2012. What economic theory says regarding its origin, causes and consequences is going to be reviewed, as well as the regulatory measures that policymakers can take to limit their flows and counteract their macroeconomic effects. Finally, taking into account these developments, an executive proposal aiming to discourage the arrival of these capitals is analyzed. KEYWORDS: CAPITAL FLOWS, IMPOSSIBLE TRINITY, INTEREST RATES, EXCHANGE RATES, INFLATION, INTERNATIONAL MONETARY RESERVES.

scholarly journals On the Rollout of Network Slicing in Carrier Networks: A Technology Radar

Sensors ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (23) ◽  
pp. 8094
Author(s):  
Jose Ordonez-Lucena ◽  
Pablo Ameigeiras ◽  
Luis M. Contreras ◽  
Jesús Folgueira ◽  
Diego R. López
Keyword(s):  
Medium Term ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Network Slicing ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Realistic Option ◽  
Commercial Networks ◽  
The Individual ◽  
Market Strategies ◽  
Integrate Network ◽  
Roll Out

Network slicing is a powerful paradigm for network operators to support use cases with widely diverse requirements atop a common infrastructure. As 5G standards are completed, and commercial solutions mature, operators need to start thinking about how to integrate network slicing capabilities in their assets, so that customer-facing solutions can be made available in their portfolio. This integration is, however, not an easy task, due to the heterogeneity of assets that typically exist in carrier networks. In this regard, 5G commercial networks may consist of a number of domains, each with a different technological pace, and built out of products from multiple vendors, including legacy network devices and functions. These multi-technology, multi-vendor and brownfield features constitute a challenge for the operator, which is required to deploy and operate slices across all these domains in order to satisfy the end-to-end nature of the services hosted by these slices. In this context, the only realistic option for operators is to introduce slicing capabilities progressively, following a phased approach in their roll-out. The purpose of this paper is to precisely help designing this kind of plan, by means of a technology radar. The radar identifies a set of solutions enabling network slicing on the individual domains, and classifies these solutions into four rings, each corresponding to a different timeline: (i) as-is ring, covering today’s slicing solutions; (ii) deploy ring, corresponding to solutions available in the short term; (iii) test ring, considering medium-term solutions; and (iv) explore ring, with solutions expected in the long run. This classification is done based on the technical availability of the solutions, together with the foreseen market demands. The value of this radar lies in its ability to provide a complete view of the slicing landscape with one single snapshot, by linking solutions to information that operators may use for decision making in their individual go-to-market strategies.

scholarly journals ANALISIS FAKTOR-FAKTOR YANG MEMPENGARUHI UTANG LUAR NEGERI DI INDONESIA

Jurnal Ecogen ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 1 (3) ◽  
pp. 482
Author(s):  
Defrizal Saputra ◽  
Hasdi Aimon ◽  
Melti Roza Adry
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Error Correction ◽  
Foreign Debt ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Error Correction Model ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Descriptive Research ◽  
Long Run

This study aims to determine and analyze the factors that influence foreign debt in Indonesia with variables that effect economic growth, inflation, and foreign interest rates. This type of research is associative descriptive research, where the data used is secondary data from 1970 to 2017 obtained from institutions and related institutions, which are analyzed using the Error Correction Model (ECM) method. This study initially used the Ordinary Lest Square (OLS) method to see long-term, and used ECM because it wanted to see short-term at the same time. The findings of this study indicate that economic growth and inflation have a significant effect in the long run, but the interest rates have no significant effect, and in the short term all have a significant effect on foreign debt in Indonesia. Keywords: foreign debt, economic growth, inflation, interest rates and error correction model (ECM)

scholarly journals Modeling The Relationships Between Export, Import, Inflation, Interest Rate, and Rupiah Exchange

2020 ◽  
Vol 3 (3) ◽  
pp. 247-262
Author(s):  
Nina Valentika ◽  
Vivi Iswanti Nursyirwan ◽  
Ilmadi Ilmadi
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Granger Causality Test ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Variable Model ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Significance Level ◽  
Long Run

This research was a modification of research by Catalbas (2016) and Pratikto (2012). The model that can separate long-term and short-term components are the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). This study aimed to model export, import, inflation, interest rates, and the rupiah exchange rate using VECM and to test the causality between variables using the Granger Causality test. The inter-variable model obtained in this study was VECM with lag 2 using a deterministic trend with the assumption of none intercept no trend and two cointegrations. In export and import, there was an adjustment mechanism from the short-term to the long-term. This research model was appropriate to forecast the export and import where VECM with export and import as the target variables, the cointegration equation (long-run model) for  cointegration equation (long-run model) for Based on the Granger Causality test, it was found that there was a one-way relationship between exchange rates and inflation, export and interest rates, export and import, inflation and export, and import and the interest rate at the significance level of 5%.

scholarly journals Non-Resident Holdings of Domestic Debt in Nigeria

2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (63) ◽  
Author(s):  
Amr Hosny
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Policy Reforms ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Rates Of Return ◽  
Treasury Bills ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Domestic Debt ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Using Data

Foreign holdings of domestic debt instruments in Nigeria have been increasing. Using data over 2007M1-2019M1, we show that, on average, global factors (global interest rates, oil prices) seem to carry more weight than domestic factors (treasury bills rate and domestic risk) in foreign portfolio invetsors’ decisions in Nigeria. Specifically, we show that foreign participation is, in the long run, positively correlated with oil prices and profitable rates of return on local-currency instruments, but negatively correlated with exchange rate depreciation pressures. In the short run, oil prices, opportunity cost of funds and perception of Nigeria-specific risks also play a role. These results highlight the volatile short-term nature of such flows and call for a package of policy reforms to attract longer term direct investments.

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