Coordinated fiscal stimulus in the Euro Area

2009 ◽  
Vol 207 ◽  
pp. 27-38 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Euro Area ◽  
Financial Services ◽  
Growth Path ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
European Monetary ◽  
Potential Growth ◽  
Fiscal Stimulus ◽  
The Third ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Uk

The Euro Area will experience a deep and relatively protracted recession. In the third quarter of 2008 Euro Area GDP fell by 0.2 per cent on a quarterly basis and we estimate that in the fourth quarter it dropped by a further 1 per cent. In 2009, the European Monetary Union is expected to suffer the sharpest downturn it has ever experienced, and it is expected to be sharper than the downturns experienced by member countries in the early 1990s and 1980s as well as the mid 1970s — see figure 17. The economy is expected to contract by 2 per cent year-on-year. In 2010 the Euro Area economy is expected to show no growth at all in annual terms, before it slowly returns to its potential growth path in the medium term. In the longer term there may be scarring from the crisis on the level of output, but we suggest that it will be noticeably less than in the UK and the US as they economies have been more dependent on financial services.

An Analysis of EU Growth Trends, with a Particular Focus on Germany, France, Italy and the UK

2007 ◽  
Vol 199 ◽  
pp. 82-98 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kieran McMorrow ◽  
Werner Roger
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Euro Area ◽  
Potential Growth ◽  
Individual Country ◽  
Reform Agenda ◽  
Current Trends ◽  
Time Period ◽  
The Us ◽  
Good Individual ◽  
The Uk

Since the mid-1990s the growth performance of the Euro Area as a whole, despite some good individual country performances, has failed to keep pace with developments elsewhere in the EU (including the UK) and also in the US. This is especially the case for a number of the larger Euro Area economies. Despite an encouraging performance in terms of its labour input trends, there has been a significant, offsetting, deterioration in the Euro Area's underlying productivity performance. This is driven in large part, worryingly, by a marked downward shift in the growth rate of total factor productivity. Looking to the future, no significant recovery is predicted in the Euro Area's underlying economic performance over the period 2007–11. While the policy challenge is a serious one, the Euro Area as a whole can take comfort from the fact that the gains from a successful refocusing of its overall reform agenda could be considerable. For example, the progressive introduction of the five key measures linked to the Lisbon strategy (i.e. the services directive; reduction of the administrative burden; improving human capital; 3 per cent R&D target; and increases in the employment rate) could boost the Euro Area's economic and employment growth rates by more than ½ a percentage point annually for more than a decade. Such an outturn would give the Euro Area a potential growth rate of around 2½ per cent, a rate of growth which in per capita terms would be broadly comparable to that of the US over the 2007–15 time period and, on the basis of current trends and policies, slightly better than that of the UK.

The UK and EMU: Choosing the Regime

2002 ◽  
Vol 180 ◽  
pp. 54-71 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ray Barrell
Keyword(s):  
Euro Area ◽  
Policy Framework ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Fiscal Regimes ◽  
The Stability ◽  
The Uk

The UK has to make a decision on membership of EMU in the next two years. The monetary and fiscal regimes in the Euro Area and in the UK do not differ greatly. However, we argue that membership of EMU will increase the stability of the economy and the credibility of the policy framework, and hence will enhance the prospects for growth and higher incomes and employment. There appear to be no major problems associated with joining EMU at around 1.50 euros to the pound, although there are risks to the UK if the euro appreciates against the dollar after we have entered. However, the costs associated with this risk have to be offset against the probability of the significant output gains that could come from EMU membership in the medium term.

The international strength of the euro will grow

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Euro Area ◽  
Financial Services ◽  
Raw Materials ◽  
Domestic Demand ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Us ◽  
Us Dollar ◽  
Strategic Autonomy ◽  
Geopolitical Risks ◽  
The Eu

Significance The proposals identified areas where the euro could potentially become more dominant, such as the issuance of green bonds, digital currencies, and international trade in raw materials and energy. Ambitions to enhance the international leverage of the euro are being driven by the aim to strengthen EU strategic autonomy amid rising geopolitical risks. Impacts Developing its digital finance sector would be an opportunity for the EU to enhance its strategic autonomy in financial services. Challenging the US dollar would require the euro-area to rebalance its economy away from foreign to domestic demand. Member state division will prevent the economic reconfiguration the euro-area needed to make the euro a truly global currency.

The World Economy

1997 ◽  
Vol 159 ◽  
pp. 28-56
Author(s):  
Julian Morgan ◽  
Nigel Pain ◽  
Florence Hubert
Keyword(s):  
World Trade ◽  
World Economy ◽  
Fiscal Consolidation ◽  
The Third ◽  
The North ◽  
External Demand ◽  
The Us ◽  
The World ◽  
World Economic ◽  
The Uk

There are now widespread signs that activity in the world economy has begun to recover steadily from the pause in growth apparent at the beginning of 1996. Output rose by 0.6 per cent in the North American economies in the third quarter of last year and by 0.8 per cent in Europe. Business and consumer sentiment has improved gradually in recent months in most of the major economies. We expect world economic growth to pick up further over the course of this year as the contractionary effects from the downturn in world trade and prolonged inventory adjustment come to an end and as the effects from a more relaxed monetary stance begin to outweigh those from ongoing fiscal consolidation. Recent currency movements should help to stimulate external demand in Germany, France and Japan, but may act to constrain growth within the UK, Italy and the US. For both this year and 1998 we expect growth of around 2½ per cent per annum in the OECD economies.

Unstable politics may make trade deals uncertain

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Financial Services ◽  
Trade Agreement ◽  
National Elections ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Us ◽  
Ideological Divergence ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Trade Deals ◽  
Trade Partners ◽  
The Eu

Subject Politics and trade talks. Significance Understanding the factors that determine how long trade negotiations take will help businesses navigate the uncertainty, as the UK government prepares to negotiate trade agreements once it leaves the EU. The Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA) between Canada and the EU took seven years to finalise. Less comprehensive renegotiations of international agreements can be shorter, including the US-Mexico-Canada agreement, which took less than two years. Impacts UK sectors highly exposed to the EU or United States, including automotive and financial services, face prolonged investment uncertainty. Timing of national elections, lobbying and the ideological divergence between trade partners will determine post-Brexit trade deal talks. Continued polarisation of major economies' electorates will delay or stop other global deals, including on foreign aid and climate change.

scholarly journals The Prediction of Business Cycle Phases: Financial Variables and International Linkages

2002 ◽  
Vol 182 ◽  
pp. 96-105 ◽  
Author(s):  
Denise R. Osborn ◽  
Marianne Sensier
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Business Cycle ◽  
European Countries ◽  
Financial Variables ◽  
The Third ◽  
The Us ◽  
International Linkages ◽  
The Business Cycle ◽  
The Uk

This paper discusses recent research at the Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research on the prediction of the expansion and recession phases of the business cycle for the UK, US, Germany, France and Italy. Financial variables are important predictors in these models, with the stock market playing a key role in the US but not the European countries, including the UK. In contrast, international linkages are important for the European countries. Our models suggest that the US and German economies have now emerged from the recession of 2001, and that all five countries will be in expansion during the third quarter of this year.

North American Responses to the Global Downturn

2010 ◽  
Vol 211 ◽  
pp. F22-F24
Keyword(s):  
North American ◽  
Population Projections ◽  
Fiscal Policies ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
The North ◽  
The Us ◽  
Corporate Borrowing ◽  
Growth Prospects ◽  
The Uk ◽  
European Economies

The North American economies are expected to recover pre-crisis levels of output earlier than most of their European counterparts. The resilience of these economies is partly a reflection of factors underlying the trend rate of capacity growth. Population projections in North America are favourable for medium-term growth prospects, partly due to policies that tend to encourage highly skilled inward migration. At the same time, the US is one of few countries that maintained strong productivity growth during the downturn (at a significant cost in terms of employment), allowing an increase in US productivity levels relative to the other major economies. In addition, the relatively rapid recovery expected in the North American economies reflects more aggressive fiscal policies in the US and Canada than in most European economies, as well as credit easing undertaken by the Federal Reserve, which has kept corporate borrowing costs low relative to levels in the UK and Euro Area. Canada and Mexico have also benefitted from the recovery in the oil price, which eases budgetary pressures in particular.

London

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Richard Roberts
Keyword(s):  
New York ◽  
Financial Services ◽  
Financial Regulation ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Services Sector ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Eu

At the onset of the Global Financial Crisis in 2007 London was one of the two foremost global financial centres, along with New York. London experienced a 12 per cent fall in wholesale financial services jobs in 2008–9, but a recovery got underway in 2010 and London’s wholesale financial services sector staged a wavering advance. But now there were new challenges, in particular the avalanche of financial regulation coming from the UK, the EU, the US and the G20. Fintech engendered new uncertainties. The impact of Brexit was uncertain, but mostly expected to be negative, at least in the short-term. Furthermore, there was growing competition from Asian and other financial centres. Nevertheless, London remained pre-eminent as one of the two largest global concentrations of wholesale financial services activity and at the top of the Global Financial Centres Index.

ECB sovereign QE could support inflation trends

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Euro Area ◽  
Risk Sharing ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
The United States ◽  
Wealth Effects ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
European Institutions ◽  
The Us ◽  
Asset Backed Securities

Significance The programme expands existing purchases of asset-backed securities and covered bonds with large-scale buying of bonds issued by euro-area governments, agencies and European institutions. Purchases will amount to a combined total of 60 billion euros (69 billion dollars) per month, starting in March. They will continue until at least September 2016 -- or until there is progress towards the central bank's medium-term inflation goal. Impacts The larger than expected size of the programme will be achievable thanks to partial risk sharing among national central banks. Wealth effects will be smaller than in the United States and United Kingdom, as euro-area capital markets are less deep. The QE programme will amount to 12% of euro-area GDP, while the US programme was larger, at 25% of GDP.

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