Application of the Risk Principle in the Supervision and Treatment of Individuals Who Have Sexually Offended: Does “Oversupervision” Matter?

2021 ◽  
pp. 009385482110408
Author(s):  
Kaitlyn M. Pederson ◽  
Holly A. Miller
Keyword(s):  
Low Risk ◽  
Risk Level ◽  
Sexual Offense ◽  
Treatment Results ◽  
Moderate Risk ◽  
Men And Women ◽  
Risk Principle ◽  
Risk Need Responsivity ◽  
Actuarial Risk ◽  
Sexually Offended

Individuals who sexually offend are commonly misunderstood as being high risk. According to the risk–need–responsivity (RNR) principles, treatment and supervision levels should be determined by actuarial risk for the best outcomes. To date, no studies have examined these principles with individuals on supervision for a sexual offense. This study applies the RNR principles to a sample of 133 men and women serving probated sentences for a sexual offense and mandated to specialized treatment. Results indicate low-risk individuals convicted of a sexual offense were more likely to be compliant with probation and treatment than moderate-risk individuals. An analysis of risk level and supervision overrides ( N = 75) provides support for the prediction that low-risk individuals supervised at high levels may be more likely to have compliance problems. Results suggest similar outcomes when violating the risk principle for individuals who have sexually offended to the findings among general justice-involved people.

Assessment and Modification of General Criminal Attitudes Among Men Who Have Sexually Offended

2020 ◽  
pp. 009385482092584
Author(s):  
Mark E. Olver ◽  
Keira C. Stockdale ◽  
David J. Simourd
Keyword(s):  
Criminal Behavior ◽  
Forensic Assessment ◽  
Baseline Risk ◽  
Sexual Offense ◽  
Dynamic Risk ◽  
Violent Recidivism ◽  
Incarcerated Men ◽  
Risk Need Responsivity ◽  
Sexually Offended ◽  
Pretreatment Score

General criminal attitudes have been well established as a dynamic risk factor for the origin, maintenance, and continuation of criminal behavior. Guided by the risk–need–responsivity (RNR) framework, this study examined self-reported change on a measure of general criminal attitudes in a sample of incarcerated men who participated in a sexual offense treatment program. Participants were administered the original version of the Criminal Sentiments Scale (CSS) and other measures at pretreatment and posttreatment and followed up in the community an average 14 years post-release. The results demonstrated that CSS total and subscale scores predicted general and violent recidivism, showed convergence with actuarial measures of criminogenic need, and had clinically meaningful associations with responsivity considerations. Pre–post changes on the CSS were associated with decreased general and violent recidivism controlling for pretreatment score and baseline risk. Implications for forensic assessment and correctional intervention are discussed.

scholarly journals Analisa Risiko Keselamatan Dan Kesehatan Kerja Menggunakan Metode HAZOPs Di Area Gas Cleaning System Di PT. RK

2019 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 1
Author(s):  
Muhamad Bob Anthony
Keyword(s):  
High Risk ◽  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Low Risk ◽  
Risk Level ◽  
Moderate Risk ◽  
Gas Cleaning ◽  
Risk Levels ◽  
Hazard Risk ◽  
Cleaning System ◽  
Extreme Risk

PT. RK is one of the major international steel producing companies. This study aims to determine the potential hazards and the value of the level of risk that is likely to occur in the new plant owned by PT. RK i.e. the gas cleaning system area which is currently in the process of entering 95% progress. This study uses the Hazard & Operability Study (HAZOPs) method in analyzing risks in the gas cleaning system area of PT. RK. The Hazard & Operability Study (HAZOPs) method was used in this study because this method is very suitable for a new plant to be used. Based on the identification of potential hazards and risk analysis that has been done in the area of gas cleaning system using the HAZOPs method, it was found that 11 deviations that might occur from all existing nodes, i.e. for extreme risk levels of 1 (one) deviation or 9%, level high risk of 2 (two) deviations or 18%, moderate risk level of 6 (six) deviations or 55% and low risk level of 2 (two) deviations or 18%.Keyword : Gas Cleaning System, HAZOPs, Potential of Hazard, Risk Levels PT. RK merupakan salah satu perusahaan manufaktur besar penghasil baja berskala internasional. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui potensi bahaya dan nilai level risiko yang kemungkinan terjadi di plant baru milik PT. RK yaitu area gas cleaning system yang saat ini proses pekerjaannya sudah memasuki progress 95%. Penelitian ini menggunakan metode Hazard & Operability Study (HAZOPs) dalam menganalisa risiko di area gas cleaning system  PT. RK.  Metode Hazard & Operability Study (HAZOPs) digunakan dalam penelitian ini dikarenakan metode ini sangat cocok untuk sebuah plant baru yang akan digunakan. Berdasarkan identifikasi potensi bahaya dan analisa risiko yang telah dilakukan di area gas cleaning system dengan menggunakan metode HAZOPs, didapatkan bahwa 11 penyimpangan yang kemungkinan terjadi dari semua node yang ada yaitu untuk level risiko extreme sebanyak 1 (satu) penyimpangan atau sebesar 9%, level risiko high risk sebanyak 2 (dua) penyimpangan atau sebesar 18%, level risiko moderate sebanyak 6 (enam) penyimpangan atau sebesar 55% dan level risiko low risk sebanyak 2 (dua) penyimpangan atau sebesar 18%.Kata Kunci: Gas Cleaning System, HAZOPs, Level Risiko, Potensi Bahaya

Comparison of fall risk assessment scales in the triage of an Italian emergency department

2020 ◽  
Vol 30 (Supplement_5) ◽  
Author(s):  
I Piras ◽  
G Murenu ◽  
G Piras ◽  
G Pia ◽  
A Azara ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
At Risk ◽  
Emergency Department ◽  
High Risk ◽  
Fall Risk ◽  
Low Risk ◽  
Risk Level ◽  
Moderate Risk ◽  
Fall Risk Assessment ◽  
Risk Levels

Abstract Background Falls in hospital are adverse events with serious consequences for the patient. Fall risk assessment requires easy tools that are suitable for the specific clinical context. This is important to quickly identify preventing measures. The aim of the study is to identify an appropriate scale for assessing fall risk in patients from an emergency department. Methods For the fall risk assessment in the emergency department, three scales were identified in literature: Kinder 1, MEDFRAT, and Morse. MEDFRAT and Morse classify the patient in high, moderate, and low risk; Kinder 1 split patients “at risk” (also when there is only one positive item) and “non-risk” (in which all items are negative). The study was carried out in July 2019 in an Italian emergency department. Patients who arrived in triage were assessed for the fall risk using the three scales. Results On a sample of 318 patients, the used scales show different levels of fall risk. For Kinder 1, 83.02% is at risk and 16.98% is not at risk; for MEDFRAT, 14.78% is at high risk, 15.09% moderate, and 70.13% low risk; for Morse, 8.81% is at high risk, 35.53% moderate, and 56.66% low risk. As Kinder 1 implies as “high risk” that all items of the questionnaire are positive, to compare Kinder 1 to the other scales with three measurements, we assumed only one positive response as “moderate risk”, all negative responses as “low risk”. Thus, Kinder 1 shows no cases at high risk, 83.02% moderate risk, and 16.98% low risk. All the scales show that the moderate-high risk increases with age. MEDFRAT and Morse have concordant percentages for young (13.6%), elderly (61.2%), and long-lived (66.6%) people. Kinder 1, 59%, 96.7%, and 100%, respectively. Conclusions The comparison between scales shows inhomogeneity in identifying the level of risk. MEDFRAT and Morse appear more reliable and consistent. Key messages An appropriate assessment scale is important to identify the fall risk level. Identifying accurate fall risk levels allows for implementing specific prevention actions.

scholarly journals The Multi-Risk Analysis of Various Disasters in Karanganyar Regency

2021 ◽  
Vol 884 (1) ◽  
pp. 012023
Author(s):  
R Noviani ◽  
P Wijayanti ◽  
C Muryani ◽  
Ahmad ◽  
Sarwono ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
High Risk ◽  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Natural Disasters ◽  
Matrix Multiplication ◽  
Low Risk ◽  
Risk Level ◽  
Moderate Risk ◽  
Central Java

Abstract Karanganyar Regency is one of the districts in Central Java which prone of the natural disasters. Based on data Posdes 2018, it is known that the types of disasters that often occurred in Karanganyar Regency during the last three years, from 2015 to 2017 were landslides, floods, and drought. Therefore, it is important to know the multi-risk level of the three types of disasters. The method used in this research is scoring and weighting, as well as overlay between constituent parameters. Based on the results of research using the VCA matrix multiplication method, it is known that the high risk level covers 3,589.67 Ha or 4.46% areas that spread in 15 districts (except Jatipuro and Jumapolo); moderate risk level covers 34,624.94 Ha or 43.04% areas that spread in 16 districts (except Tasikmadu); The low risk level covers 42,254.98 Ha or 52.53% areas that spread in 7 districts (Colomadu, Gondangrejo, Tasikmadu, Matesih, Tawangmangu, Jumapolo, Jatiyoso).

scholarly journals Tingkat Risiko Kejadian Kardiovaskular pada Penyandang Diabetes Melitus Tipe 2

2020 ◽  
Vol 4 (3) ◽  
pp. 182
Author(s):  
Fiska Nur Aini ◽  
Anggi Lukman Wicaksana ◽  
Heny Suseani Pangastuti
Keyword(s):  
Type 2 Diabetes ◽  
High Risk ◽  
Risk Prediction ◽  
Cardiovascular Event ◽  
Low Risk ◽  
Risk Level ◽  
Moderate Risk ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Diabetes Melitus

ABSTRAKIndividu dengan diabetes melitus tipe 2 memiliki risiko dua hingga tiga kali lipat terjadinya risiko kejadian kardiovaskular, yaitu serangan jantung atau stroke. Organisasi kesehatan dunia dan masyarakat international hipertensi mengembangkan alat untuk memprediksi tingkat risiko kejadian kardiovaskular dalam kurun waktu sepuluh tahun yang akan datang. Tujuan: Penelitian bertujuan untuk mengetahui tingkatan risiko kardiovaskular pada penyandang diabetes tipe 2 dalam sepuluh tahun mendatang di Yogyakarta. Metode: Penelitian cross-sectional dilakukan di Puskesmas Depok, Yogyakarta dengan menggunakan teknik proportional sampling pada tiga Puskesmas Depok. Responden penelitian yaitu pasien terdiagnosis diabetes tipe 2, berusia 40-79 tahun, dan tidak memiliki komplikasi atau penyakit lain. Instrumen yang digunakan yaitu WHO/ISH risk prediction charts wilayah Indonesia (SEAR B) untuk menilai tingkatan risiko kejadian kardiovaskular. Data diklasifikasikan berdasarkan tingkat risiko kejadian kardiovaskuler yang dimiliki. Data dianalisis secara univariat. Hasil: Sejumlah 66 responden terlibat dengan mayoritas responden adalah perempuan, tidak bekerja, menikah dan rerata usia 61,02 ± 8,86. Tingkat risiko kejadian kardiovaskular penyandang diabetes tipe 2 di Puskesmas Depok, Yogyakarta dalam kurun waktu sepuluh tahun mendatang yaitu risiko rendah 56,1%; risiko sedang 30,3%; risiko tinggi 9,1%; dan risiko sangat tinggi 4,5%. Lebih dari separuh responden memiliki risiko rendah (<10%) terkena serangan jantung atau stroke dalam waktu sepuluh tahun mendatang. Selain itu, satu dari tiga responden memiliki risiko sedang (10-20%) terjadi serangan jantung atau stroke. Kesimpulan: Separuh dari responden penyandang diabetes memiliki risiko non-fatal kejadian kardiovaskular.Kata Kunci: diabetes tipe 2, penyakit kardiovaskular, insidenRisk Level of Cardiovascular Event Among Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus ABSTRACTIndividuals with type 2 diabetes have two to three times risk of cardiovascular event, as heart and stroke attack. World Health Organization and International Society of Hypertension had developed a prediction method of the risk level of cardiovascular event for the following ten years. Objective: This study aimed to identify the risk level of cardiovascular event over the next ten years on people with type 2 diabetes in Yogyakarta. Method: The study used a cross-sectional design in three Public Health Centers Depok, Yogyakarta using proportional sampling technique. The respondents were patients diagnosed with type 2 diabetes, age of 40-79 years, and no comorbidity. The WHO/ISH risk prediction charts for diabetes population in Indonesian (SEAR B) was used to assess the risk level of cardiovascular event. Data was analyzed with univariae analysis. Results: A total of 66 respondents were recruited after reviewing eligibility criteria. The majority of the respondents were women, unemployed, married, and the average age was 61.02 ± 8.86. The risk levels of cardiovascular event among participants in the next ten years were gradually low risk (56.1%); moderate risk (30.3%); high risk (9.1%); and very high risk (4.5%). More than a half of participants had low risk or less than 10% for being cardiovascular event in the following ten years. Furthermore, one third of participants had moderate risk or 10-20% developing cardiac arrest or stroke attack. Conclusion: A half of diabetes participants had non-fatal risk of cardiovascular event.Keywords: type 2 diabetes, cardiovascular disease, incidence

scholarly journals Low Risk Offenders Under Probation Supervision: Risk Management and the Risk-Needs-Responsivity Framework

2018 ◽  
Vol 45 (12) ◽  
pp. 1809-1831 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jill Viglione ◽  
Faye S. Taxman
Keyword(s):  
Risk Management ◽  
Probation Officers ◽  
Low Risk ◽  
Risk Level ◽  
Community Supervision ◽  
Staff Perceptions ◽  
Perceptions Of Risk ◽  
Risk Principle ◽  
Probation Supervision ◽  
Telephone Monitoring

Community supervision agencies commonly use resource allocation models to identify the amount of monitoring and treatment to provide individuals under supervision. The risk-needs-responsivity model guides these decisions, suggesting the level of supervision should align with one’s risk level, with fewer services provided to those at a lower risk of recidivism. However, probation officers often operate under a risk management model with perceptions of risk guiding decisions. Using qualitative data, the current study examined the implementation of a telephone monitoring system for low risk offenders. This research explored (a) probation staff perceptions of telephone monitoring, (b) probation staff adaptations of telephone monitoring, and (c) individual and external influences related to telephone supervision use. Findings suggest officer perceptions of risk and liability affect use of telephone supervision for low risk probationers. Results highlight challenges associated with implementing the risk principle given tendencies to oversupervise as a means to protect public safety.

scholarly journals Proposal for the use of echocardiography in bloodstream infections due to different streptococcal species

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Sandra Chamat-Hedemand ◽  
Niels Eske Bruun ◽  
Lauge Østergaard ◽  
Magnus Arpi ◽  
Emil Fosbøl ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Risk Factor ◽  
High Risk ◽  
Blood Culture ◽  
Positive Blood Culture ◽  
Bloodstream Infections ◽  
Low Risk ◽  
Moderate Risk ◽  
Streptococcal Species ◽  
Very High

Abstract Background Infective endocarditis (IE) is diagnosed in 7–8% of streptococcal bloodstream infections (BSIs), yet it is unclear when to perform transthoracic (TTE) and transoesophageal echocardiography (TOE) according to different streptococcal species. The aim of this sub-study was to propose a flowchart for the use of echocardiography in streptococcal BSIs. Methods In a population-based setup, we investigated all patients admitted with streptococcal BSIs and crosslinked data with nationwide registries to identify comorbidities and concomitant hospitalization with IE. Streptococcal species were divided in four groups based on the crude risk of being diagnosed with IE (low-risk < 3%, moderate-risk 3–10%, high-risk 10–30% and very high-risk > 30%). Based on number of positive blood culture (BC) bottles and IE risk factors (prosthetic valve, previous IE, native valve disease, and cardiac device), we further stratified cases according to probability of concomitant IE diagnosis to create a flowchart suggesting TTE plus TOE (IE > 10%), TTE (IE 3–10%), or “wait & see” (IE < 3%). Results We included 6393 cases with streptococcal BSIs (mean age 68.1 years [SD 16.2], 52.8% men). BSIs with low-risk streptococci (S. pneumoniae, S. pyogenes, S. intermedius) are not initially recommended echocardiography, unless they have ≥3 positive BC bottles and an IE risk factor. Moderate-risk streptococci (S. agalactiae, S. anginosus, S. constellatus, S. dysgalactiae, S. salivarius, S. thermophilus) are guided to “wait & see” strategy if they neither have a risk factor nor ≥3 positive BC bottles, while a TTE is recommended if they have either ≥3 positive BC bottles or a risk factor. Further, a TTE and TOE are recommended if they present with both. High-risk streptococci (S. mitis/oralis, S. parasanguinis, G. adiacens) are directed to a TTE if they neither have a risk factor nor ≥3 positive BC bottles, but to TTE and TOE if they have either ≥3 positive BC bottles or a risk factor. Very high-risk streptococci (S. gordonii, S. gallolyticus, S. mutans, S. sanguinis) are guided directly to TTE and TOE due to a high baseline IE prevalence. Conclusion In addition to the clinical picture, this flowchart based on streptococcal species, number of positive blood culture bottles, and risk factors, can help guide the use of echocardiography in streptococcal bloodstream infections. Since echocardiography results are not available the findings should be confirmed prospectively with the use of systematic echocardiography.

Applying the risk principle to optimize accuracy and equity in correctional risk assessment: Results From a Simulation

2021 ◽  
pp. 0306624X2098652
Author(s):  
Grant Duwe
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Predictive Accuracy ◽  
Ethnic Disparities ◽  
Simulated Data ◽  
Risk Assessments ◽  
Risk Level ◽  
Risk Levels ◽  
Risk Principle ◽  
Changes In Risk ◽  
The Impact

As the use of risk assessments for correctional populations has grown, so has concern that these instruments exacerbate existing racial and ethnic disparities. While much of the attention arising from this concern has focused on how algorithms are designed, relatively little consideration has been given to how risk assessments are used. To this end, the present study tests whether application of the risk principle would help preserve predictive accuracy while, at the same time, mitigate disparities. Using a sample of 9,529 inmates released from Minnesota prisons who had been assessed multiple times during their confinement on a fully-automated risk assessment, this study relies on both actual and simulated data to examine the impact of program assignment decisions on changes in risk level from intake to release. The findings showed that while the risk principle was used in practice to some extent, the simulated results showed that greater adherence to the risk principle would increase reductions in risk levels and minimize the disparities observed at intake. The simulated data further revealed the most favorable outcomes would be achieved by not only applying the risk principle, but also by expanding program capacity for the higher-risk inmates in order to adequately reduce their risk.

Profile Analysis and Risk Assessment: Identifying Distinct Patterns of Risks and Needs

2021 ◽  
pp. 154120402110124
Author(s):  
Christopher D’Amato ◽  
Christina A. Campbell ◽  
Jordan Papp ◽  
William Miller
Keyword(s):  
Mental Health ◽  
Juvenile Justice ◽  
Latent Profile Analysis ◽  
Profile Analysis ◽  
Assessment System ◽  
Low Risk ◽  
Specific Intervention ◽  
Moderate Risk ◽  
Prosocial Skills ◽  
Adjudicated Youth

The goal of this study was to identify distinct and meaningful profiles of the seven criminogenic risk and need domains included on the Ohio Youth Assessment System—Disposition Tool (OYAS-DIS). This goal was accomplished by conducting a latent profile analysis (LPA) on a sample of 4,383 formally processed justice-involved youth assessed by the OYAS-DIS. The LPA determined there were six distinct profiles: (1) Low risk and need, (2) Low/moderate risk and need, (3) Low risk/need with high juvenile justice history, (4) Academic, mental health, and substance use needs, (5) Prosocial skills and decision making, and (6) High risk and need. Results may help juvenile justice practitioners to identify and address specific intervention needs of adjudicated youth.

scholarly journals Infiltration and sealing for managing non-cavitated proximal lesions: a systematic review and meta-analysis

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Yuanyuan Chen ◽  
Dongru Chen ◽  
Huancai Lin
Keyword(s):  
Systematic Review ◽  
High Risk ◽  
Meta Analysis ◽  
Low Risk ◽  
Caries Risk ◽  
Moderate Risk ◽  
Risk Levels ◽  
Non Invasive ◽  
Randomised Controlled ◽  
Caries Lesions

Abstract Background Infiltration and sealing are micro-invasive treatments for arresting proximal non-cavitated caries lesions; however, their efficacies under different conditions remain unknown. This systematic review and meta-analysis aimed to evaluate the caries-arresting effectiveness of infiltration and sealing and to further analyse their efficacies across different dentition types and caries risk levels. Methods Six electronic databases were searched for published literature, and references were manually searched. Split-mouth randomised controlled trials (RCTs) to compare the effectiveness between infiltration/sealing and non-invasive treatments in proximal lesions were included. The primary outcome was obtained from radiographical readings. Results In total, 1033 citations were identified, and 17 RCTs (22 articles) were included. Infiltration and sealing reduced the odds of lesion progression (infiltration vs. non-invasive: OR = 0.21, 95% CI 0.15–0.30; sealing vs. placebo: OR = 0.27, 95% CI 0.18–0.42). For both the primary and permanent dentitions, infiltration and sealing were more effective than non-invasive treatments (primary dentition: OR = 0.30, 95% CI 0.20–0.45; permanent dentition: OR = 0.20, 95% CI 0.14–0.28). The overall effects of infiltration and sealing were significantly different from the control effects based on different caries risk levels (OR = 0.20, 95% CI 0.14–0.28). Except for caries risk at moderate levels (moderate risk: OR = 0.32, 95% CI 0.01–8.27), there were significant differences between micro-invasive and non-invasive treatments (low risk: OR = 0.24, 95% CI 0.08–0.72; low to moderate risk: OR = 0.38, 95% CI 0.18–0.81; moderate to high risk: OR = 0.17, 95% CI 0.10–0.29; and high risk: OR = 0.14, 95% CI 0.07–0.28). Except for caries risk at moderate levels (moderate risk: OR = 0.32, 95% CI 0.01–8.27), infiltration was superior (low risk: OR = 0.24, 95% CI 0.08–0.72; low to moderate risk: OR = 0.38, 95% CI 0.18–0.81; moderate to high risk: OR = 0.20, 95% CI 0.10–0.39; and high risk: OR = 0.14, 95% CI 0.05–0.37). Conclusion Infiltration and sealing were more efficacious than non-invasive treatments for halting non-cavitated proximal lesions.

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