Examining the Influence of Jessica’s Law on Reported Forcible Rape

2016 ◽  
Vol 28 (1) ◽  
pp. 87-101 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rick Dierenfeldt ◽  
Jennifer Varriale Carson

Since the 1990s, several measures intended to deter sexual offending have been instituted by state governments. A recent example is Jessica’s Law. First adopted in Florida, variations of Jessica’s Law have since been enacted by the majority of states. The impact of this legislation on forcible rape remains unexplored. Using a general deterrence framework, we apply Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) modeling to monthly Uniform Crime Report (UCR) aggregations of reported forcible rape from 2000 to 2011 in states requiring lifetime electronic monitoring of convicted sex offenders as a condition of Jessica’s Law. Results indicate a null relationship between Jessica’s Law and reported forcible rape. Policy implications related to the efficacy of sex offender legislation and alternatives for reducing sexual offending are discussed.

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
◽  
Hun Young Lee

<p>It is argued in existing Korean criminological literature that penal populism has strongly influenced the criminal justice system over the last two decades in South Korea (‘SK’, hereafter). Their contention is based on the evidence of punitive penal policies formulated around sex offences against children since the 2000s. These policies include increased minimum sentencing for sex offenders, increased maximum terms of imprisonment, sex offender registration and community notification, electronic monitoring, and chemical castration.  However, imprisonment rates in SK, one of the main indicators of punitiveness in other countries, rapidly decreased in the 2000s and have since then been stable. Moreover, the imprisonment rates in this country are significantly lower than those of other societies where penal populism has occurred, including the US, England, and New Zealand. Why, then, do criminologists in SK argue that penal populism has flourished in SK at a time when imprisonment rates are not sufficiently high to invoke punitiveness, let alone the downward (and stabilising) trend of imprisonment rates?  The purpose of this thesis is to explain the punitive penal developments in SK since the 2000s, by drawing upon Pratt’s (2007) penal populism theory. Firstly, the contention in Korean criminology that penal populism has strongly operated and impacted the penal landscape in SK is empirically demonstrated. This demonstration is based on analyses of newspaper articles, social media, legislative bills, and minutes of the National Assembly with regard to sexual violence against children.  This is followed by an explanation of the specific form of penal populism in SK, which is focused exclusively around sexual violence against children. The explanation draws on a social analysis of why and how the sensibilities of South Koreans toward children and the safety of children have changed over recent decades. The main argument here is that the socio-cultural value of children created under the tradition of Confucian familialism in SK has significantly increased through immense social, economic, and structural changes. These changes were brought about by a compressed process of industrialisation, which began as early as the 1960s, and the transition to late-modern society from the 1990s onwards.  Lastly, this thesis seeks to explain the apparent contradiction between penal populism and the rapid decrease of the imprisonment rate in the 2000s in SK. I argue here that the rapid decrease of the imprisonment rate at that time was primarily caused by the changed patterns of pardon, parole, and remand within the context of the criminal justice reforms driven by the two progressive governments between 1998 and 2007. In addition, during the CJS reforms, ‘independence of the judiciary’ was upheld as the most important value, which regulated institutional arrangements in regard to sentencing in particular. Within these arrangements, the judiciary has been able to resist the impact of penal populism, which also contributed to the decrease of the imprisonment rate in the 2000s in this country.</p>


Author(s):  
Ahmed Rabeeu ◽  
Chen Shouming ◽  
Md Abid Hasan ◽  
Disney Leite Ramos ◽  
Abdul Basit Abdul Rahim

The present study examines the impact of COVID-19 on Maldivian tourism, highlighting the loss of tourists and tourism earnings for the period 2020Q1 to 2021Q2 and analyses the recovery rate of inbound tourists’ arrivals post border re-opening (i.e., 2020Q3 – 2021Q2). Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) model was employed to generate monthly forecasts for 2020 and 2021. The results indicate an estimated loss of 1.9 million tourists between 2020Q1 and 2021Q2. A massive drop in tourist arrivals caused an estimated loss of USD 3.5 billion in tourism earnings by June 2021. Results further indicate that with an average monthly recovery rate of 3%, inbound arrivals have recovered 34% of forecasted levels and 40% of 2019 levels by June 2021. The measures implemented by the government of Maldives played a vital role in the recovery of inbound tourism. However, the rebound of tourists has not reached the desired levels except for the arrivals from Russia. Therefore, additional strategies must be implemented for the quick revival of the Maldivian tourism industry. This study expands and enriches tourism management knowledge in the face of a massive crisis highlighting important managerial and policy implications for reviving the tourism industry of the Maldives.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
◽  
Hun Young Lee

<p>It is argued in existing Korean criminological literature that penal populism has strongly influenced the criminal justice system over the last two decades in South Korea (‘SK’, hereafter). Their contention is based on the evidence of punitive penal policies formulated around sex offences against children since the 2000s. These policies include increased minimum sentencing for sex offenders, increased maximum terms of imprisonment, sex offender registration and community notification, electronic monitoring, and chemical castration.  However, imprisonment rates in SK, one of the main indicators of punitiveness in other countries, rapidly decreased in the 2000s and have since then been stable. Moreover, the imprisonment rates in this country are significantly lower than those of other societies where penal populism has occurred, including the US, England, and New Zealand. Why, then, do criminologists in SK argue that penal populism has flourished in SK at a time when imprisonment rates are not sufficiently high to invoke punitiveness, let alone the downward (and stabilising) trend of imprisonment rates?  The purpose of this thesis is to explain the punitive penal developments in SK since the 2000s, by drawing upon Pratt’s (2007) penal populism theory. Firstly, the contention in Korean criminology that penal populism has strongly operated and impacted the penal landscape in SK is empirically demonstrated. This demonstration is based on analyses of newspaper articles, social media, legislative bills, and minutes of the National Assembly with regard to sexual violence against children.  This is followed by an explanation of the specific form of penal populism in SK, which is focused exclusively around sexual violence against children. The explanation draws on a social analysis of why and how the sensibilities of South Koreans toward children and the safety of children have changed over recent decades. The main argument here is that the socio-cultural value of children created under the tradition of Confucian familialism in SK has significantly increased through immense social, economic, and structural changes. These changes were brought about by a compressed process of industrialisation, which began as early as the 1960s, and the transition to late-modern society from the 1990s onwards.  Lastly, this thesis seeks to explain the apparent contradiction between penal populism and the rapid decrease of the imprisonment rate in the 2000s in SK. I argue here that the rapid decrease of the imprisonment rate at that time was primarily caused by the changed patterns of pardon, parole, and remand within the context of the criminal justice reforms driven by the two progressive governments between 1998 and 2007. In addition, during the CJS reforms, ‘independence of the judiciary’ was upheld as the most important value, which regulated institutional arrangements in regard to sentencing in particular. Within these arrangements, the judiciary has been able to resist the impact of penal populism, which also contributed to the decrease of the imprisonment rate in the 2000s in this country.</p>


Author(s):  
Richard McCleary ◽  
David McDowall ◽  
Bradley J. Bartos

The general AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model can be written as the sum of noise and exogenous components. If an exogenous impact is trivially small, the noise component can be identified with the conventional modeling strategy. If the impact is nontrivial or unknown, the sample AutoCorrelation Function (ACF) will be distorted in unknown ways. Although this problem can be solved most simply when the outcome of interest time series is long and well-behaved, these time series are unfortunately uncommon. The preferred alternative requires that the structure of the intervention is known, allowing the noise function to be identified from the residualized time series. Although few substantive theories specify the “true” structure of the intervention, most specify the dichotomous onset and duration of an impact. Chapter 5 describes this strategy for building an ARIMA intervention model and demonstrates its application to example interventions with abrupt and permanent, gradually accruing, gradually decaying, and complex impacts.


2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Mathew Gullotta ◽  
David Greenberg ◽  
Olayan Albalawi ◽  
Armita Adily ◽  
Azar Karminia ◽  
...  

Abstract Objective Prisoners complete suicide and self-harm more frequently than members of the community. Sex offenders have been found to be at greater risk of engaging in these behaviours. This study examines the characteristics, prevalence, and predictors of self-harm and suicide attempts among: sex offenders that only victimise children (ChildSOs); adults (AdultSOs); or both (age-crossover polymorphous; PolySOs). Methods Data from three waves (1996, 2001, 2009) of the New South Wales (NSW) Inmate Health Survey was linked to the State’s re-offending database to identify men with histories of sexual offending. The health surveys captured self-report data on self-harm and suicidality. Results Non-sexual violent offenders (15%) and AdultSOs (14%) had the highest rate of self-harm, significantly more than ChildSOs (11%), non-sexual non-violent offenders (10%), and PolySOs (0%). Several factors significantly predicted self-harm at the bivariate level for both ChildSOs and AdultSOs, with unique predictors for each group. At the multivariate level, manic-depression trended towards significance for ChildSOs and any mental health condition remained a significant predictor for AdultSOs who self-harmed relative to AdultSOs who had not (aOR = 11.989, 95%CI [1.14, 126.66]). Approximately 23% of AdultSOs, 22% of PolySOs, and 19% of ChildSOs reported a suicide attempt throughout their lifetime, whereas only 15% of non-sexual non-violent offenders reported an attempt. At the bivariate level, few factors were significant for ChildSOs while several factors were significant for AdultSOs. At the multivariate level, a diagnosis of depression and treatment with psychiatric medication trended towards being significant predictors of suicide attempts for ChildSOs. In contrast, treatment with psychiatric medication (aOR = 25.732, 95%CI [1.91, 347.19])] remained a significant predictor for AdultSOs who attempted suicide relative to AdultSOs who had not, as well as historical psychiatric hospitalisation (aOR = 6.818, 95%CI [1.04, 44.82]) and self-harm (aOR = 5.825, 95%CI [1.31, 25.99]). Conclusion Sex offenders are at significantly higher risk of attempting and completing suicide relative to non-sexual non-violent offenders and warrant special attention. The prevalence rates and predictors of self-harm and suicidality suggest differences between sex offender subgroups may exist. These hold implications for the criminal justice and public health systems for addressing needs and identifying those most at risk of self-harm and suicide.


2000 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 75-102 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anne-Marie McAlinden

This paper explores the implications and difficulties of a system of sex offender registration for the two jurisdictions of Ireland. From the orthodox perspective, registration appears justified. Sexual offending has increase and this is used by the media to generate a ‘moral panic’. However, in terms of Blumer's (1971) developmental perspective, sexual offenders in the community have been socially constructed in Ireland, as a problem requiring specific action. This perspective most adequately explains the formulation of legislation. Arguments expounded in favour of registration include the supposedly high recidivism among sex offenders, the inadequacy of supervision provisions and the resulting need to ‘track’ the offender for public protection. Yet a plethora of obstacles which were not considered at the time the legislation was being formulated, such as cost and inadequate policing resources, may impede its effectiveness in aiding law enforcement and reduce it to symbolic significance only. Given these difficulties, I argue that registration is not an appropriate response to the problem of released sexual offenders in Ireland. Rather, from the social constructionist perspective, I suggest that it is better to ‘treat’ the sex offender through less formal and stringent means in the community, away from the criminal justice process.


PLoS ONE ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (4) ◽  
pp. e0250149
Author(s):  
Fuad A. Awwad ◽  
Moataz A. Mohamoud ◽  
Mohamed R. Abonazel

The novel coronavirus COVID-19 is spreading across the globe. By 30 Sep 2020, the World Health Organization (WHO) announced that the number of cases worldwide had reached 34 million with more than one million deaths. The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) registered the first case of COVID-19 on 2 Mar 2020. Since then, the number of infections has been increasing gradually on a daily basis. On 20 Sep 2020, the KSA reported 334,605 cases, with 319,154 recoveries and 4,768 deaths. The KSA has taken several measures to control the spread of COVID-19, especially during the Umrah and Hajj events of 1441, including stopping Umrah and performing this year’s Hajj in reduced numbers from within the Kingdom, and imposing a curfew on the cities of the Kingdom from 23 Mar to 28 May 2020. In this article, two statistical models were used to measure the impact of the curfew on the spread of COVID-19 in KSA. The two models are Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model and Spatial Time-Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (STARIMA) model. We used the data obtained from 31 May to 11 October 2020 to assess the model of STARIMA for the COVID-19 confirmation cases in (Makkah, Jeddah, and Taif) in KSA. The results show that STARIMA models are more reliable in forecasting future epidemics of COVID-19 than ARIMA models. We demonstrated the preference of STARIMA models over ARIMA models during the period in which the curfew was lifted.


2018 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 171-180
Author(s):  
I Gede Sanica ◽  
I Ketut Nurcita ◽  
I Made Mastra ◽  
Desak Made Sukarnasih

AbstractThis study aims to analyze effectivity and forecast of interest rate BI 7-Day Repo Rate as policy reference in the implementation of monetary policy. The method was used in this study contains Vector Autoregression (VAR) to estimate effectivity of BI 7-Day Repo Rate and Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) to forecast of BI 7-Day Repo Rate. Period of observation in this study used time series data during 2016.4 until 2017.6. The result of this research shows that the transformation of the BI Rate to BI 7-Day Repo Rate is the right step in the monetary policy operation in the effort to reach deepening of the financial market and strengthen the interbank money market structure so that it will decrease loan interest rate and encourage credit growth. The effectiveness of the use of BI 7 Day-Repo Rate on price stability is indicated by the positive relationship between the benchmark interest rate and inflation compared to the BI Rate. The impact of BI 7-Day Repo Rate on economic growth that tends to be positive. Forecasting the use of BI 7-Day Repo Rate shows good results with declining value levels, so this will encourage deepening the financial markets.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wenqiang Zhang ◽  
Rongsheng Luan

Abstract Background: A series of social and public health measures have been implemented to contain coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in China. We examined the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions against COVID-19 on mumps incidence as an agent to determine the potential reduction in other respiratory virus incidence.Methods: We modelled mumps incidence per month in Sichuan using a seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model, based on the reported number of mumps cases per month from 2017-2020. Results: The epidemic peak of mumps in 2020 is lower than in the preceding years. Whenever compared with the projected cases or the average from corresponding periods in the preceding years (2017-2019), the reported cases in 2020 markedly declined (P<0.001). From January to December, the number of mumps cases was estimated to decrease by 36.3% (33.9% - 38.8%), 34.3% (31.1% - 37.8%), 68.9% (66.1% - 71.6%), 76.0% (73.9% - 77.9%), 67.0% (65.0% - 69.0%), 59.6% (57.6% - 61.6%), 61.1% (58.8% - 63.3%), 49.2% (46.4% - 52.1%), 24.4% (22.1% - 26.8%), 30.0% (27.5% - 32.6%), 42.1% (39.6% - 44.7%), 63.5% (61.2% - 65.8%), respectively. The total number of mumps cases in 2020 was estimated to decrease by 53.6% (52.9% - 54.3%).Conclusion: Our study shows that non-pharmaceutical interventions against COVID-19 have had an effective impact on mumps incidence in Sichuan, China.


Author(s):  
Catrien Bijleveld ◽  
Chantal van den Berg ◽  
Jan Hendriks

Juvenile sexual offending is often regarded as a precursor of serious and continued sexual offending in adulthood, but there has been little empirical evidence supporting this assumption. Could juvenile sexual offending be just a ‘passing phase’? The study discussed in this essay follows the criminal career about 1,600 juvenile sex offenders from early adolescence into adulthood. A comprehensive view of the entire criminal career is presented to establish whether juvenile sexual offending is a precursor of continued (sexual) offending in adulthood or if (sexual) offending is non-chronic for most. The sexual recidivists in the sample are identified, and this group is used to establish the risk factors associated with continued sexual offending. These risk factors are compared to the ones used in risk assessment instruments for (juvenile) sex offenders. This study holds crucial information for policy and theory regarding juvenile sex offenders.


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