scholarly journals Assessing the Recovery Rate of Inbound Tourist Arrivals Amid COVID-19: Evidence from the Maldives

2021 ◽  
Vol 7 (6) ◽  
pp. 7-15
Author(s):  
Ahmed Rabeeu ◽  
Chen Shouming ◽  
Md Abid Hasan ◽  
Disney Leite Ramos ◽  
Abdul Basit Abdul Rahim
Keyword(s):  
Recovery Rate ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Vital Role ◽  
Tourism Industry ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average ◽  
Tourism Management ◽  
The Face ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact

The present study examines the impact of COVID-19 on Maldivian tourism, highlighting the loss of tourists and tourism earnings for the period 2020Q1 to 2021Q2 and analyses the recovery rate of inbound tourists’ arrivals post border re-opening (i.e., 2020Q3 – 2021Q2). Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) model was employed to generate monthly forecasts for 2020 and 2021. The results indicate an estimated loss of 1.9 million tourists between 2020Q1 and 2021Q2. A massive drop in tourist arrivals caused an estimated loss of USD 3.5 billion in tourism earnings by June 2021. Results further indicate that with an average monthly recovery rate of 3%, inbound arrivals have recovered 34% of forecasted levels and 40% of 2019 levels by June 2021. The measures implemented by the government of Maldives played a vital role in the recovery of inbound tourism. However, the rebound of tourists has not reached the desired levels except for the arrivals from Russia. Therefore, additional strategies must be implemented for the quick revival of the Maldivian tourism industry. This study expands and enriches tourism management knowledge in the face of a massive crisis highlighting important managerial and policy implications for reviving the tourism industry of the Maldives.

scholarly journals Dampak Pariwisata terhadap Aspek Sosial Budaya Masyarakat Desa Adat Kemiren di Kabupaten Banyuwangi

REPRESENTAMEN ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 7 (01) ◽  
Author(s):  
Andhika Wahyudiono ◽  
Dimas Imaniar
Keyword(s):  
Negative Impact ◽  
Cultural Tourism ◽  
Tourism Industry ◽  
Cultural Aspects ◽  
Tourism Management ◽  
Preventive Actions ◽  
The People ◽  
Local Residents ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact

Cultural tourism is the main attraction in the traditional village of Kemiren, Banyuwangi Regency. Macananegara tourists as well as domestic tourists visit the traditional village of Kemiren to witness first-hand the life of the Osing tribe which is still traditional. This research was conducted to determine the impact of tourism on the socio-cultural aspects of the people of the Kemiren traditional village, Banyuwangi Regency. This research is a qualitative research. Meanwhile, the strategy carried out by the government is in the form of preventive actions such as outreach to MSME players, making local regulations on tourism and study tours of tourism management with tourism business actors. The basic conclusion in this study later is, as a cultural tourism destination in general, the ongoing tourism industry activities affect the socio-cultural aspects of the Osing community, the Kemiren traditional village, Banyuwangi Regency. In addition, the increase in the community's economy is also encouraged due to changes in the livelihoods of local residents, as well as local government strategies in the form of policy making are expected to be able to minimize the negative impact of tourism. Cultural tourism in the traditional village of Kemiren, Banyuwangi Regency is used as a tool to maintain the cultural existence of the Kemiren traditional village, which is currently being abandoned by the Osing tribe, the traditional village of Kemiren, Banyuwangi Regency.Keywords: Tourism, Socio-culture, Osing Tribe

Examining the Influence of Jessica’s Law on Reported Forcible Rape

2016 ◽  
Vol 28 (1) ◽  
pp. 87-101 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rick Dierenfeldt ◽  
Jennifer Varriale Carson
Keyword(s):  
Sex Offenders ◽  
Sex Offender ◽  
Electronic Monitoring ◽  
Sexual Offending ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
State Governments ◽  
Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average ◽  
Arima Modeling ◽  
The Impact

Since the 1990s, several measures intended to deter sexual offending have been instituted by state governments. A recent example is Jessica’s Law. First adopted in Florida, variations of Jessica’s Law have since been enacted by the majority of states. The impact of this legislation on forcible rape remains unexplored. Using a general deterrence framework, we apply Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) modeling to monthly Uniform Crime Report (UCR) aggregations of reported forcible rape from 2000 to 2011 in states requiring lifetime electronic monitoring of convicted sex offenders as a condition of Jessica’s Law. Results indicate a null relationship between Jessica’s Law and reported forcible rape. Policy implications related to the efficacy of sex offender legislation and alternatives for reducing sexual offending are discussed.

scholarly journals People’s Concerns With the Prediction of COVID-19 in Bangladesh: Application of Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 84-93
Author(s):  
Md. Ismail Hossain ◽  
Ahmed Abdus Saleh Saleheen ◽  
Iqramul Haq ◽  
Maliha Afroj Zinnia ◽  
Md. Rifat Hasan ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Moving Average ◽  
Arima Model ◽  
Binary Logistic Regression ◽  
Vital Role ◽  
Health Concern ◽  
Binary Logistic Regression Model ◽  
Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average ◽  
Aged People ◽  
Materials Used ◽  
The Impact

Introduction: The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has become a public health concern, and behavioral adjustments will minimize its spread worldwide by 80%. The main purpose of this research was to examine the factors associated with concerns about COVID-19 and the future direction of the COVID-19 scenario of Bangladesh. Methods: The binary logistic regression model was performed to assess the impact of COVID-19 concern in Bangladesh. Based on data obtained through online surveys in November 2020 and to predict the next 40 days daily confirmed and deaths of COVID-19 in Bangladesh by applying the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model. Results: The study enrolled 400 respondents, with 253 (63.2%) were male, and 147 (36.8%) were female. The mean age of respondents was 25.13 ± 5.74 years old. Almost 70% of them were found to be concerned about the COVID-19 pandemic. The result showed that respondents’ education level, knowledge regarding COVID-19 transmits, households with aged people, seasonal flu and HD/respiratory problems, and materials used while sneezing/coughing significantly influenced COVID-19 concerns. The analysis predicted that confirmed cases would gradually decrease for the ARIMA model while death cases will be constant for the next 40 days in Bangladesh. Conclusion: The current study suggested that knowledge about COVID-19 spread and education played a vital role in the decline of COVID-19 concerned. A particular program should focus on creating an awareness of the disadvantages of concerns about the COVID-19 pandemic by augmenting knowledge about COVID-19 spread, enhancing Education in Bangladesh.

Intervention Modeling

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Richard McCleary ◽  
David McDowall ◽  
Bradley J. Bartos
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Autocorrelation Function ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Intervention Model ◽  
Noise Component ◽  
Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average ◽  
Noise Function ◽  
Modeling Strategy ◽  
The Impact ◽  
True Structure

The general AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model can be written as the sum of noise and exogenous components. If an exogenous impact is trivially small, the noise component can be identified with the conventional modeling strategy. If the impact is nontrivial or unknown, the sample AutoCorrelation Function (ACF) will be distorted in unknown ways. Although this problem can be solved most simply when the outcome of interest time series is long and well-behaved, these time series are unfortunately uncommon. The preferred alternative requires that the structure of the intervention is known, allowing the noise function to be identified from the residualized time series. Although few substantive theories specify the “true” structure of the intervention, most specify the dichotomous onset and duration of an impact. Chapter 5 describes this strategy for building an ARIMA intervention model and demonstrates its application to example interventions with abrupt and permanent, gradually accruing, gradually decaying, and complex impacts.

Fiscal Deficit and Economic Growth in Bangladesh

2016 ◽  
Vol 62 (1) ◽  
pp. 31-42 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ebney Ayaj Rana ◽  
Abu N. M. Wahid
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Budget Deficit ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Political Stability ◽  
Ordinary Least Squares ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Government Budget ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Government Budget Deficit

The economy of Bangladesh is currently going through a period of continuous budget deficit. The present data suggest that the government budget deficit, on average, is nearly 5% of the country’s GDP. This has been true since the early 2000s. To finance this deficit, governments have been borrowing largely from domestic and foreign sources resulting in inflationary pressure on one hand, and crowding out of private investments on the other. During the same period, although the economy has grown steadily at a rate of more than 6%, this growth is less than the potential. This article presents an econometric study of the impact of government budget deficits on the economic growth of Bangladesh. We conduct a time-series analysis using ordinary least squares estimation, vector error correction model, and granger causality test. The findings suggest that the government budget deficit has statistically significant negative impact on economic growth in Bangladesh. Policy implications of our findings include reestablishing the rule of law, political stability in the country, restructuring tax structure, closing tax loopholes, and harmonizing fiscal policy with monetary policy to attract additional domestic and foreign investment.

scholarly journals Estimating COVID-19 cases in Makkah region of Saudi Arabia: Space-time ARIMA modeling

PLoS ONE ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (4) ◽  
pp. e0250149
Author(s):  
Fuad A. Awwad ◽  
Moataz A. Mohamoud ◽  
Mohamed R. Abonazel
Keyword(s):  
Saudi Arabia ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Arima Model ◽  
Daily Basis ◽  
World Health ◽  
Arima Models ◽  
Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average ◽  
First Case ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
The Impact

The novel coronavirus COVID-19 is spreading across the globe. By 30 Sep 2020, the World Health Organization (WHO) announced that the number of cases worldwide had reached 34 million with more than one million deaths. The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) registered the first case of COVID-19 on 2 Mar 2020. Since then, the number of infections has been increasing gradually on a daily basis. On 20 Sep 2020, the KSA reported 334,605 cases, with 319,154 recoveries and 4,768 deaths. The KSA has taken several measures to control the spread of COVID-19, especially during the Umrah and Hajj events of 1441, including stopping Umrah and performing this year’s Hajj in reduced numbers from within the Kingdom, and imposing a curfew on the cities of the Kingdom from 23 Mar to 28 May 2020. In this article, two statistical models were used to measure the impact of the curfew on the spread of COVID-19 in KSA. The two models are Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model and Spatial Time-Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (STARIMA) model. We used the data obtained from 31 May to 11 October 2020 to assess the model of STARIMA for the COVID-19 confirmation cases in (Makkah, Jeddah, and Taif) in KSA. The results show that STARIMA models are more reliable in forecasting future epidemics of COVID-19 than ARIMA models. We demonstrated the preference of STARIMA models over ARIMA models during the period in which the curfew was lifted.

scholarly journals Pengelolaan Keuangan Pemerintah di Masa Pandemi Covid 19 (Kasus Pada Pemerintah Provinsi Riau)

2021 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 33-48
Author(s):  
Yesi Mutia Basri ◽  
Gusnardi Gusnardi
Keyword(s):  
Financial Management ◽  
Sampling Technique ◽  
Provincial Government ◽  
Data Display ◽  
Snowball Sampling ◽  
Key Informants ◽  
The Face ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact

This study aims to observe how local government financial management is in the face of the Covid-19 Pandemic—in particular, observing how budgeting, administration, and accountability of the Riau Provincial Government regarding the Covid-19 Pandemic. The research method used is a qualitative method with a type of case study. The data collection techniques used in-depth interviews, observation, and documentation. To ensure the validity of the data, triangulation was carried out by carrying out source triangulation and technical triangulation. The informants in this study consisted of key informants, primary informants, and supporting informants. Key informants are the head of the budget, the head of the treasury, and the head of the accounting and reporting sub-section. While the primary informants and supporting informants were selected using the snowball sampling technique. Data analysis was carried out by collecting data, reducing data display data, and making conclusions. The results of the analysis show that the impact of the Covid-19 Pandemic caused the Riau Provincial Government to refocus and reallocate the budget four times. At the administrative and accountability stages, there are problems with recording Unexpected Expenditures, namely the absence of technical guidelines regarding the administration of Unexpected Expenditures, determining spending limits for emergencies and urgency. Another problem is the absence of valid data for the distribution of aid funds for MSMEs affected by Covid-19 as well as valid documents in the recording of grant assistance from third parties. This research contributes to the government in making policies in financial management in a disaster emergency.Keyword: The Covid-19 Pandemic, Financial Management, Refocusing, Reallocation, Administration, Accountability AbstrakPenelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengobservasi bagaimana pengelolaan keuangan Pemerintah Daerah dalam menghadapi Pandemi Covid-19 ini. Secara khusus mengobservasi bagaimana penganggaran, penatausahaan dan pertanggungjawan Pemerintah Provinsi Riau terkait Pandemi Covid-19. Metode penelitian yang digunakan adalah metode kualitatif dengan jenis studi kasus. Teknik pengumpulan data menggunakan teknik wawancara medalam, observasi dan dokumentasi. Untuk meyakinkan keabsahan data, triangilasi dilakukan dengan melaksanakan triangulasi sumber dan triangulasi teknik. Informan dalam penelitian ini terdiri dari informan kunci, informan utama dan informan pendukung. Informan kunci adalah Kabid anggaran, kabid perbendaharaan dan kasubid akuntansi dan pelaporan. Sedangkan informan utama dan informan pendukung dipilih dengan teknik snowball sampling. Analisis data dilakukan  dengan tahap pengumpulan data, reduksi data display data dan melakukan membuat kesimpulan. Hasil analisis menunjukkan bahwa Dampak Pandemi Covid-19 menyebabkan Pemerintah Provinsi Riau melakukan refocusing dan realokasi anggaran sebanyak empat kali pergeseran anggaran. Pada tahap penatausahaan dan pertanggungjawaban terdapat permasalahan pencatatan pada Belanja Tidak Terduga yaitu tidak adanya juknis tentang penatausahaan Belanja Tidak Terduga, penentuan batasan belanja untuk keadaan darurat dan mendesak.  Permasalahan lainnya yaitu tidak  adanya data yang valid untuk penyaluran dana  bantuan bagi UMKM yang terdampak Covid-19 serta dokumen yang valid dalam pencatatan bantuan hibah dari pihak ke tiga. Penelitian ini memberikan kontribusi kepada pemerintah dalam membuat kebijakan dalam pengelolaan keuangan pada keadaan darurat bencana. Kata Kunci :  Pandemi Covid-19, Pengelolaan Keungan, Refocusing, Realokasi, Penatausahaan, Pertanggungjawaban

scholarly journals Effectiveness and Forecasting of Interest Rate Reversal BI 7-Day Repo Rate in Indonesia: Lower Bound on Monetary Policy?

2018 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 171-180
Author(s):  
I Gede Sanica ◽  
I Ketut Nurcita ◽  
I Made Mastra ◽  
Desak Made Sukarnasih
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average ◽  
Implementation Of Monetary Policy ◽  
Repo Rate ◽  
The Right ◽  
The Impact

AbstractThis study aims to analyze effectivity and forecast of interest rate BI 7-Day Repo Rate as policy reference in the implementation of monetary policy. The method was used in this study contains Vector Autoregression (VAR) to estimate effectivity of BI 7-Day Repo Rate and Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) to forecast of BI 7-Day Repo Rate. Period of observation in this study used time series data during 2016.4 until 2017.6. The result of this research shows that the transformation of the BI Rate to BI 7-Day Repo Rate is the right step in the monetary policy operation in the effort to reach deepening of the financial market and strengthen the interbank money market structure so that it will decrease loan interest rate and encourage credit growth. The effectiveness of the use of BI 7 Day-Repo Rate on price stability is indicated by the positive relationship between the benchmark interest rate and inflation compared to the BI Rate. The impact of BI 7-Day Repo Rate on economic growth that tends to be positive. Forecasting the use of BI 7-Day Repo Rate shows good results with declining value levels, so this will encourage deepening the financial markets.

Estimating the Impact of Non-pharmaceutical Interventions Against COVID-19 on Mumps Incidence in Sichuan, China

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wenqiang Zhang ◽  
Rongsheng Luan
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Respiratory Virus ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Sarima Model ◽  
Potential Reduction ◽  
Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average ◽  
Health Measures ◽  
Virus Incidence ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Pharmaceutical Interventions

Abstract Background: A series of social and public health measures have been implemented to contain coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in China. We examined the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions against COVID-19 on mumps incidence as an agent to determine the potential reduction in other respiratory virus incidence.Methods: We modelled mumps incidence per month in Sichuan using a seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model, based on the reported number of mumps cases per month from 2017-2020. Results: The epidemic peak of mumps in 2020 is lower than in the preceding years. Whenever compared with the projected cases or the average from corresponding periods in the preceding years (2017-2019), the reported cases in 2020 markedly declined (P<0.001). From January to December, the number of mumps cases was estimated to decrease by 36.3% (33.9% - 38.8%), 34.3% (31.1% - 37.8%), 68.9% (66.1% - 71.6%), 76.0% (73.9% - 77.9%), 67.0% (65.0% - 69.0%), 59.6% (57.6% - 61.6%), 61.1% (58.8% - 63.3%), 49.2% (46.4% - 52.1%), 24.4% (22.1% - 26.8%), 30.0% (27.5% - 32.6%), 42.1% (39.6% - 44.7%), 63.5% (61.2% - 65.8%), respectively. The total number of mumps cases in 2020 was estimated to decrease by 53.6% (52.9% - 54.3%).Conclusion: Our study shows that non-pharmaceutical interventions against COVID-19 have had an effective impact on mumps incidence in Sichuan, China.

scholarly journals Assessment of the impact of Smartphone Technology on Tour Guide Performance in Kenya

2019 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
pp. 30 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kabii Francis ◽  
John K. M. Wandaka ◽  
Naghea Jilo
Keyword(s):  
Communication Technology ◽  
Information Communication Technology ◽  
Tourism Industry ◽  
Information Communication ◽  
Chi Square ◽  
Tour Guides ◽  
Time Interaction ◽  
Smartphone Technology ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact

Several studies have been conducted to examine the influence of technology on the travel and tourism industry. However, there exists limited literature on the adaptation and usage of Smartphone technology by Kenyan tour guides, a gap this study sought to address. The objective of the study was to examine the effect of Information Communication Technology (ICT) on tour guiding performance in Kenya, investigate the effect of smartphone usage on the guides’ performance and finally, explore the possibility of adoption smart guiding techniques by Kenya’s tour guides. The study used descriptive methods and target practicing tour guides as the respondents. The data collected was analyzed using the Pearson’s Chi-square test of independence. The findings indicated Smartphone technology positively influenced guides, performance (χ2=65.025;df 2; P<0.05).The study concluded that smartphone and information communication technology have significantly influenced guides performance and hence recommend to the government and other stakeholders to invest more in infrastructure that supports smart destinations, which offer interactive pre-tour services, during the tour and post-tour experiences. Innovation on applications that support real-time interaction with attractions, accommodation and financial institutions is recommended.

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