Protest at the ballot box: From blank vote to populism

2021 ◽  
pp. 135406882199974
Author(s):  
Hadas Aron ◽  
Chiara Superti
Keyword(s):  
Good Predictor ◽  
Political System ◽  
Strong Predictor ◽  
Demographic Variables ◽  
Vote Share ◽  
Electoral Support ◽  
Five Star Movement ◽  
Blank Voting ◽  
Municipal Level ◽  
Cross National

Populist parties foment discontent with the establishment. Previous studies explored whether sentiments of discontent and protest can predict populist voting. In this paper, we argue that past electoral protest in a community, rather than merely a sense of discontent, is a good predictor of new populist lists and their electoral support. We explore this connection using blank voting, a measure that allows a systematic and unbiased evaluation of protest at the municipal level. We first test our theory on the Italian Five Star Movement (M5S). Controlling for economic and demographic variables, we demonstrate that in municipalities with high blank vote in previous elections, the probability of new M5S lists and M5S vote share were higher. Testing the generalizability of our theory using cross-national populism data, we show that past protest in the form of blank/null voting is a strong predictor of the level of populist rhetoric in a political system.

‘Make the Economy Scream’? Economic, Ideological and Social Determinants of Support for Salvador Allende in Chile, 1970–3

2017 ◽  
Vol 49 (4) ◽  
pp. 771-797 ◽  
Author(s):  
PATRICIO NAVIA ◽  
RODRIGO OSORIO
Keyword(s):  
Social Class ◽  
Economic Performance ◽  
Demographic Variables ◽  
Economic Conditions ◽  
Presidential Approval ◽  
Salvador Allende ◽  
Electoral Support ◽  
Level Data ◽  
Popular Unity ◽  
Municipal Level

AbstractWith polling and municipal level data, we analyse the determinants of Salvador Allende's presidential election victory in 1970 and the change in political and electoral support for his government (1970–3). Support for Allende is explained by ideology more than by social class, socio-demographic variables or the economic performance of the country. Allende won in 1970 as an opposition candidate when the outgoing Frei administration enjoyed high approval and the country was experiencing favourable economic conditions. In 1973, when Allende had 49.7% approval, ideology remained the strongest determinant of presidential approval. Economic variables and social class are less important in explaining electoral support for Allende and for his Popular Unity coalition.

Democracy and Nonprofit Growth: A Cross-National Panel Study

2018 ◽  
Vol 47 (4) ◽  
pp. 702-722 ◽  
Author(s):  
Seok Eun Kim ◽  
You Hyun Kim
Keyword(s):  
Longitudinal Data ◽  
Political System ◽  
Developmental Trajectories ◽  
Nonprofit Sector ◽  
Panel Study ◽  
Political Systems ◽  
Extensive Growth ◽  
High Level ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Cross National

This study hypothesizes that a country with a high level of democracy should experience more extensive growth in its nonprofit sector than authoritarian or less democratic countries, controlling for the relevant social and economic variables. We tested this hypothesis using cross-national longitudinal data. The results indicate that a democratic political system affects positively on the emergence and growth of the nonprofit sector across sample countries. However, the relationship appears to be non-linear, although nonprofit activities are sustained at a certain level. We also found different developmental trajectories among the nonprofit sectors that depended on how different countries operated their democratic political systems.

Mayors and their interaction with municipal councils in the countries of Eastern Europe

2020 ◽  
Vol 2020 (58) ◽  
pp. 147-157
Author(s):  
Александр Игоревич Черкасов
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Political Parties ◽  
Eastern Europe ◽  
Political System ◽  
Urban Governance ◽  
Decision Making Process ◽  
Governance Mechanism ◽  
Modern Cities ◽  
Municipal Level

This article deals with the institute of mayor and his interaction with municipal councils in the countries of Eastern Europe. The author points out that the mayor personifies the whole urban governance mechanism and acts as an arbitrator in the struggle of various interests coming into confrontation at the level of a modern city. The article contains analyses of the trend towards “presidentialization” of the local political system and decollectivization of the decision making process at the municipal level common for many modern cities. On the basis of popular support and expectations the mayor begins to increasingly squeeze positions of local councils in the municipal mechanism. Direct mayoral elections are becoming more common and increase the independence of the head of local administration from political parties and slightly reduce the role of the latter in the decision making process

'Natural Conservatives?': Examining the Voting Associations Of Ethnic And Visible Minorty Communities In The Toronto CMA, 2007 to 2011

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Brandon D. Jacoby
Keyword(s):  
Voter Turnout ◽  
Conservative Party ◽  
Visible Minority ◽  
Liberal Party ◽  
Minority Communities ◽  
European Origin ◽  
Suburban Areas ◽  
Electoral Support ◽  
Mayoral Election ◽  
Municipal Level

The Conservative Party of Canada attributed its successful breakthrough in the Toronto area during the 2011 Canadian federal election to their engagement of ethnic and visible minority voters, whereas in the past, these voters were associated with the Liberal party. This research study uses spatial and statistical analyses to test patterns of association between the electoral support for the three major parties and presence of ethnic and visible minority communities. The research uses data from the 2006 Census of Canada, as well as the voting results of the 2011 and 2008 federal elections, the 2011 and 2007 Ontario provincial elections and the 2010 Toronto mayoral election. The findings suggest that non-European origin ethnic and visible minority communities are associated with the Liberal party at the federal and provincial levels, but the opposite is true at the municipal level, and the federal Liberals are haemorrhaging support from ethnic and visible minority communities to the Conservatives and NDP. The victories of the federal Conservatives may instead be associated with other factors like vote splitting, low voter turnout, and divisions between urban and suburban areas.

Voters reward hard-working MPs: empirical evidence from the French legislative elections

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. 469-483 ◽  
Author(s):  
Abel François ◽  
Julien Navarro
Keyword(s):  
Empirical Evidence ◽  
Political System ◽  
Presidential Elections ◽  
Electoral System ◽  
Vote Share ◽  
Legislative Elections ◽  
National Assembly ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Legislative Election

AbstractThis paper studies the relationship between incumbent MPs’ activities and their electoral fortune. We address this question in the context of the French political system characterized by an executive domination, a candidate-centered electoral system, and an electoral schedule maximizing the impact of the presidential elections. Given the contradictory influence of these three institutional features on the relationship between MPs’ activities and electoral results, the overall link can only be assessed empirically. We test the effects of several measurements of MPs’ activities on both their vote share and reelection probability in the 2007 legislative election. We show that MPs’ activities are differently correlated to both the incumbents’ vote shares in the first round and their reelection. Despite the weakness of the French National Assembly, several parliamentary activities, especially bill initiation, have a significant effect on MPs’ electoral prospects.

Casualties and Incumbents: Do the Casualties from Interstate Conflicts Affect Incumbent Party Vote Share?

2011 ◽  
Vol 41 (4) ◽  
pp. 795-817 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael T. Koch
Keyword(s):  
International Conflict ◽  
Vote Share ◽  
Investment Model ◽  
Vote Choice ◽  
Policy Positions ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Individual Vote ◽  
Interstate Conflicts ◽  
Incumbent Party ◽  
Cross National

Research suggests that the costs of international conflict (e.g. casualties) alter public opinion, executive approval and policy positions of elected officials. However, do casualties affect voting in terms of aggregate outcomes and individual vote choices? This article examines how casualties from interstate conflicts affect voter behaviour, specifically incumbent vote share. Using the investment model of commitment to model individual vote choice, it is argued that increases in the costs of conflict (i.e., more casualties) can increase the probability that voters will support the incumbent, increasing incumbent vote share. This model is tested with both cross-national aggregate data from twenty-three countries and individual-level British survey data. The results support the argument.

Unsuccessful Success? Failed No-Confidence Motions, Competence Signals, and Electoral Support

2011 ◽  
Vol 44 (11) ◽  
pp. 1474-1499 ◽  
Author(s):  
Laron K. Williams
Keyword(s):  
Formal Model ◽  
Original Data ◽  
Vote Share ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Parliamentary Democracies ◽  
Electoral Support ◽  
The Government ◽  
Opposition Parties

If no-confidence motions are primarily motivated by bringing down governments, why do only approximately 5% of no-confidence motions in advanced parliamentary democracies from 1960 result in the termination of government? In this project the author addresses this puzzle by developing a formal model of the electoral benefits of no-confidence motions and tests these hypotheses with the use of an original data set. No-confidence motions represent highly visible opportunities for opposition parties to highlight their strength or ability compared to the government in the hopes of improving their vote shares. The author finds support for the signal-based theory on a sample of 20 advanced parliamentary democracies from 1960 to 2008. Although no-confidence motions result in decreases for the government parties, the opposition parties that propose the motion experience boosts in vote share. This relationship is even stronger when the proposing party is an alternative governing possibility—illustrated by the conditioning impacts of the number of parliamentary parties and the opposition party’s ideological extremism. This provides an explanation as to why opposition parties would continue to challenge the government even though the motions are likely to fail.

Interest Groups in the Colombian Congress: Group Behavior in a Centralized, Patrimonial Political System

1974 ◽  
Vol 16 (3) ◽  
pp. 274-300 ◽  
Author(s):  
Harvey F. Kline
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Interest Groups ◽  
Political System ◽  
Group Behavior ◽  
The United States ◽  
Political Systems ◽  
Unit Of Analysis ◽  
Italian Politics ◽  
Organized Interest ◽  
Cross National

The use of “group” as a unit of analysis has a long tradition in political science. Some proponents of this approach (Bentley, 1908; Hagan, 1966) define group in such a broad way as to simplify the study of politics little if any. An empirically more useful approach to the study of groups is that pursued by David Truman (1955), who concentrates his attention on interest groups. Although he never states that all of the politics of the United States can be understood through the study of interest groups, it is clear that Truman considers the study of such groups to be a central aspect and, in effect, hypothesizes that such would be the case in any political system. Whether this is in fact the case can be tested by cross-national studies. In one such study, Joseph La Palombara (1960) concluded that the important aspects of Italian politics are not explained satisfactorily by studying organized interest groups. This is in direct contradiction to Truman's implicit hypothesis, which would be refuted if numerous studies in other political systems concluded as La Palombara's did.

The Revised Army Alpha Examination as a Predictor of Intelligence and Brain Impairment

1978 ◽  
Vol 42 (2) ◽  
pp. 601-602
Author(s):  
Dennis P. Swiercinsky ◽  
Tom W. Patterson
Keyword(s):  
Good Predictor ◽  
Strong Predictor ◽  
Clinical Applications

The Revised Army Alpha Examination is shown to be a reasonably strong predictor of WAIS ( r = .81) and a set of subscales to be a fairly good predictor of brain impairment among a VA sample ( n = 183). As a short group-administered test that provides eight subtest scores, its clinical and predictive qualities should be useful in research and clinical applications.

scholarly journals Quality of Democracy Makes a Difference, but Not for Everyone: How Political Interest, Education, and Conceptions of Democracy Condition the Relationship Between Democratic Quality and Political Trust

2021 ◽  
Vol 3 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marlene Mauk
Keyword(s):  
Political System ◽  
Strong Predictor ◽  
Political Trust ◽  
Performance Evaluations ◽  
Political Interest ◽  
The Political ◽  
Development Indicators ◽  
Democratic Quality ◽  
The World ◽  
Democratic Performance

In light of recent crises, not least the COVID-19 pandemic, citizen trust in the political system has been highlighted as one of the central features ensuring citizen compliance and the functioning of democracy. Given its many desirable consequences, one of the key questions is how to increase political trust among ordinary citizens. This paper investigates the role of democratic quality in determining citizens’ trust in the political system. While we know that citizens’ evaluations of democratic performance are a strong predictor of political trust, previous research has shown that trust is not always higher in political systems with higher democratic quality, indicating that democratic performance evaluations do not always correspond to actual democratic quality. Several moderating factors may account for this disconnect between democratic quality and citizens’ evaluations of democratic performance and, ultimately, political trust. For one, citizens may receive different information about the political system; second, they may process this information in different ways; and third, they may have different standards of what democratic quality ought to be. Using survey data from three rounds of the World Values Survey (2005–2020) and aggregate data on democratic quality and other macro determinants of political trust from the V-Dem project and World Development Indicators for 50 democracies around the world, this contribution empirically investigates the complex relationship between democratic quality, democratic performance evaluations, and political trust in multi-level moderated mediation models. Its findings demonstrate that democratic quality affects political trust indirectly through citizens’ democratic performance evaluations and that this indirect effect is stronger for citizens with higher political interest, higher education, and especially those with more liberal conceptions of democracy.

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