Exploring dependence structures in the international arms trade network: A network autocorrelation approach

2019 ◽  
Vol 20 (2) ◽  
pp. 195-218 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael Lebacher ◽  
Paul W Thurner ◽  
Göran Kauermann
Keyword(s):  
Spatial Econometrics ◽  
Trade Flow ◽  
Information Criterion ◽  
Trade Flows ◽  
Dependence Structure ◽  
Network Autocorrelation ◽  
Arms Trade ◽  
Disturbance Model ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Dependence Structures

In this article, we analyse dependence structures among international trade flows of major conventional weapons from 1952 to 2016. We employ a Network Disturbance Model commonly used in inferential network analysis and spatial econometrics. The dependence structure is represented by pre-defined weight matrices that allow for correlating flows from the network of international arms exchange. Three dependence structures are proposed, representing sender-, receiver- and sender–receiver-related dependencies. The appropriateness of the presumed structures is comparatively assessed using the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC). It turns out that the dependence structure among the arms trade flows is complex and can be represented best by a specification that relates each arms trade flow to all exports and imports of the sending and the receiving state. Controlling for exogenous variables, we find that the trade volume increases with the GDP of the sending and the receiving state while the impact of geographical distance, regime dissimilarity and formal alliance membership is rather small.

scholarly journals Measuring the impact of agricultural production shocks on international trade flows

2019 ◽  
Vol 47 (3) ◽  
pp. 1094-1132
Author(s):  
Shon M Ferguson ◽  
Johan Gars
Keyword(s):  
Agricultural Production ◽  
Food Production ◽  
Bilateral Trade ◽  
Trade Flow ◽  
Trade Costs ◽  
Trade Flows ◽  
Unit Value ◽  
Cent Increase ◽  
Bilateral Trade Flow ◽  
The Impact

Abstract The purpose of this study is to measure the sensitivity of traded quantities and trade unit values to agricultural production shocks. We develop a general equilibrium model of trade in which production shocks in exporting countries affect both traded quantities and trade unit values. The model includes per-unit trade costs and develops a methodology to quantify their size exploiting the trade unit value data. Using bilateral trade flow data for a large sample of countries and agricultural commodities, we find that the intensive margin of trade is relatively inelastic to production shocks, with a 1 per cent increase in production leading to a 0.5 per cent increase in exports. We also find that per-unit trade costs are large, comprising 15–20 per cent of import unit values on average. Overall, our results suggest that there is room for improving trade as a mechanism for coping with food production volatility.

scholarly journals THE IMPACT OF REGIONAL TRADE AGREEMENTS TO THE COMMODITY TRADE FLOWS (CASE STUDY: INTERNATIONAL PALM OIL TRADE)

2014 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
pp. 193-206
Author(s):  
Riska Pujiati ◽  
Muhammad Firdaus ◽  
Andriyono Kilat Adhi ◽  
Bernhard Brummer
Keyword(s):  
East Asia ◽  
Palm Oil ◽  
Trade Flow ◽  
Dynamic Effect ◽  
Trade Agreement ◽  
Trade Flows ◽  
South East Asia ◽  
Regional Trade ◽  
Regional Trade Agreement ◽  
The Impact

Indonesia and Malaysia are the major exporters of palm oil in South East Asia. South East Asia Regional Trade Agreement can affect worldwide trade flow of palm oil. The objective of this study is to examine the effect of the Regional Trade Agreement on the trade flows of Indonesian and Malaysian palm oil. The effect is analyzed with gravity model.  The result shows positive dynamic effect of Free Trade Agreement to palm oil trade flow. Regional Trade Agreement has higher impact to Malaysia than Indonesia due to dissimilar government policies.

scholarly journals The Impact of Trade Facilitation on Vietnam’s Trade Flows

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
AISDL
Keyword(s):  
Bilateral Trade ◽  
Trade Flow ◽  
Economic Benefits ◽  
Global Market ◽  
Trade Flows ◽  
Border Crossing ◽  
Trade Facilitation ◽  
Cross Border ◽  
Bilateral Trade Flows ◽  
The Impact

In a globalized economy, countries actively participate in Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) to bring their advantageous products to the global market through cross-border transport to satisfy customers. Trade Facilitation (TF) has become key to address the difficulties faced by traders in cross-border transport. In the trend of global TF, Vietnam has always been committed to implement TF measures by simplify customs procedures and improving customs clearance efficiency at the border crossing in order to help traders reduce their trading costs. This paper mainly considers the impact of TF measures on Vietnam‘s trade flow under the effect of FTAs. Using the gravity model extended with quantitative measures of customs environment, regulatory environment, and service infrastructure, this paper estimates the impact of TF on bilateral trade flows with Vietnam. The results show that port and customs effects have positive impacts on Vietnam's trade flows. The results also show that these impacts are consistent despite the existence of FTAs. The implementation of TF measures always requires coordination of countries to produce the best results. Indeed, the increase in trade flows between countries will bring economic benefits. And when the reforms of TF are strictly implemented, reducing trade costs will increase trade volume. In a nutshell, TF has gradually become one of the important factors of economic growth.

CAGE distance framework and bilateral trade flows: case of India

2020 ◽  
Vol 43 (10) ◽  
pp. 1157-1181
Author(s):  
Kalpana Tokas ◽  
Arnab Kumar Deb
Keyword(s):  
Fixed Effects ◽  
Trade Flow ◽  
Empirical Support ◽  
Trade Flows ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Goods And Services ◽  
Cross Border ◽  
Border Trade ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Volume Of Trade

Purpose The paper is in the area of international business and international trade. Specifically, this paper aims to focus on cross-border trade flows of goods and services between India and its partner nations. Design/methodology/approach Using the Cultural, Administrative, Geographic and Economic (CAGE) distance framework (Ghemawat, 2001), this paper provides empirical support for the impact these distance factors exert on the volume of trade in goods and services between countries. The sample used for empirical analysis consists of a set of 62 OECD countries which are involved in trade in goods and services with India over the period 2005 through 2015. This paper estimates a fixed-effects model to provide a comprehensive examination of all the distance factors impacting the bilateral cross-border trade flows of India. Findings The empirical findings in this paper show that different dimensions of the CAGE distances have varied influence on volume of trade flows between India and its trading partners. Also, the extent of this influence is guided by the nature of industries – manufacturing or services. Originality/value Departing from the common practice in the literature, using the trade flow data for both Indian manufacturing and service sectors separately, this paper examines to what extent is the impact of these distance factors industry driven.

Institutional Quality and Trade Flow: Empirical Evidence from Malaysia and Other OIC Member Countries in Africa

2021 ◽  
pp. 097508782098717
Author(s):  
Hammed Agboola Yusuf ◽  
Luqman Olanrewaju Afolabi ◽  
Waliu Olawale Shittu ◽  
Kafilah Lola Gold ◽  
Murtala Muhammad
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Bilateral Trade ◽  
Trade Flow ◽  
Estimation Method ◽  
Institutional Quality ◽  
Likelihood Estimation ◽  
Political Stability ◽  
Bilateral Trade Flow ◽  
World Governance Indicators ◽  
The Impact

This article examines the impact of institutional quality on bilateral trade flow between Malaysia and selected 25 African Organisation of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) member countries. Four institutional qualities were selected from World Governance Indicators with other trade predictors from the period from 1985 to 2016. Using gravity model of trade and Poisson pseudo-maximum likelihood estimation method (PPML) technique, the results confirm that government effectiveness, regulatory quality and political stability have an adverse effect on bilateral trade flow among the OIC countries in Africa. On the other hand, these institutional quality variables were considered as a strength for Malaysian economic growth. Therefore, better institutional quality reforms are needed among OIC member countries in Africa in order to accelerate trade, economic growth and development in their region.

Dependence structure between money and economic activity: A Markov-switching copula VEC approach

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-17
Author(s):  
Apostolos Serletis ◽  
Libo Xu
Keyword(s):  
Error Correction ◽  
Economic Activity ◽  
Regime Switching ◽  
Markov Switching ◽  
Tail Dependence ◽  
Error Correction Model ◽  
Dependence Structure ◽  
Copula Models ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Dependence Structures

Abstract This paper examines correlation and dependence structures between money and the level of economic activity in the USA in the context of a Markov-switching copula vector error correction model. We use the error correction model to focus on the short-run dynamics between money and output while accounting for their long-run equilibrium relationship. We use the Markov regime-switching model to account for instabilities in the relationship between money and output, and also consider different copula models with different dependence structures to investigate (upper and lower) tail dependence.

scholarly journals Modeling the Impact of Climate Changes on Crop Yield: Irrigated vs. Non-Irrigated Zones in Mississippi

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (12) ◽  
pp. 2249
Author(s):  
Sadia Alam Shammi ◽  
Qingmin Meng
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Crop Yield ◽  
Crop Yields ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Information Criterion ◽  
Growing Season ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Linear Regression Models ◽  
The Impact

Climate change and its impact on agriculture are challenging issues regarding food production and food security. Many researchers have been trying to show the direct and indirect impacts of climate change on agriculture using different methods. In this study, we used linear regression models to assess the impact of climate on crop yield spatially and temporally by managing irrigated and non-irrigated crop fields. The climate data used in this study are Tmax (maximum temperature), Tmean (mean temperature), Tmin (minimum temperature), precipitation, and soybean annual yields, at county scale for Mississippi, USA, from 1980 to 2019. We fit a series of linear models that were evaluated based on statistical measurements of adjusted R-square, Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), and Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC). According to the statistical model evaluation, the 1980–1992 model Y[Tmax,Tmin,Precipitation]92i (BIC = 120.2) for irrigated zones and the 1993–2002 model Y[Tmax,Tmean,Precipitation]02ni (BIC = 1128.9) for non-irrigated zones showed the best fit for the 10-year period of climatic impacts on crop yields. These models showed about 2 to 7% significant negative impact of Tmax increase on the crop yield for irrigated and non-irrigated regions. Besides, the models for different agricultural districts also explained the changes of Tmax, Tmean, Tmin, and precipitation in the irrigated (adjusted R-square: 13–28%) and non-irrigated zones (adjusted R-square: 8–73%). About 2–10% negative impact of Tmax was estimated across different agricultural districts, whereas about −2 to +17% impacts of precipitation were observed for different districts. The modeling of 40-year periods of the whole state of Mississippi estimated a negative impact of Tmax (about 2.7 to 8.34%) but a positive impact of Tmean (+8.9%) on crop yield during the crop growing season, for both irrigated and non-irrigated regions. Overall, we assessed that crop yields were negatively affected (about 2–8%) by the increase of Tmax during the growing season, for both irrigated and non-irrigated zones. Both positive and negative impacts on crop yields were observed for the increases of Tmean, Tmin, and precipitation, respectively, for irrigated and non-irrigated zones. This study showed the pattern and extent of Tmax, Tmean, Tmin, and precipitation and their impacts on soybean yield at local and regional scales. The methods and the models proposed in this study could be helpful to quantify the climate change impacts on crop yields by considering irrigation conditions for different regions and periods.

scholarly journals Reciprocal Trade Agreements in Asia: Credible Commitment to Trade Liberalization or Paper Tigers?

2012 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-29 ◽  
Author(s):  
Raymond Hicks ◽  
Soo Yeon Kim
Keyword(s):  
Cold War ◽  
Trade Liberalization ◽  
Trade Agreements ◽  
Primary Objective ◽  
Trade Flows ◽  
Institution Building ◽  
Credible Commitment ◽  
Coding Scheme ◽  
The Cold War ◽  
The Impact

Reciprocal trade agreements (RTAs) have proliferated rapidly in Asia in recent years, an unprecedented phenomenon in a region in which state-led institution-building efforts were largely unsuccessful during the Cold War years. In this article, we investigate the qualitative provisions of RTAs in Asia, focusing on agreements that are professedly geared toward trade liberalization through reciprocal exchanges of trade concessions. We build on the concept of credible commitment—that states “tie their hands” through international agreements and thus signal strong commitment to trade liberalization. We argue that a broad range of agreement provisions will affect an RTA's ability to achieve its primary objective: trade liberalization. We present a coding scheme that measures the strength of a wide variety of provisions in the legal texts of RTAs. Using quantitative analysis, we analyze the impact of various components of Asia's RTAs on participants' trade flows.

scholarly journals Analysis of Flood Risk of Urban Agglomeration Polders Using Multivariate Copula

Water ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (10) ◽  
pp. 1470 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yuqin Gao ◽  
Dongdong Wang ◽  
Zhenxing Zhang ◽  
Zhenzhen Ma ◽  
Zichen Guo ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Water Level ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Flood Risk ◽  
Eastern China ◽  
Urban Agglomeration ◽  
Dependence Structure ◽  
Flood Risks ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Flood Characteristics ◽  
Qinhuai River

Urban agglomeration polders (UAPs) are often used to control flooding in eastern China. The impacts of UAPs on individual flood events have been extensively examined, but how flood risks are influenced by UAPs is much less examined. This study aimed to explore a three-dimensional joint distribution of annual flood volume, peak flow and water level to examine UAPs’ impact on flood risks based on hydrological simulations. The dependence between pairwise hydrological characteristics are measured by rank correlation coefficients and graphs. An Archimedean Copula is applied to model the dependence structure. This approach is applied to the Qinhuai River Basin where UAPs are used proactively for flood control. The result shows that the Frank Copula can better represent the dependence structure in the Qinhuai River Basin. UAPs increase risks of individual flood characteristics and integrated risks. UAPs have a relatively greater impact on water level than the other two flood characteristics. It is noted that the impact on flood risk levels off for greater floods.

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