A Description–Experience Framework of the Psychology of Risk

2021 ◽  
pp. 174569162110268
Author(s):  
Ralph Hertwig ◽  
Dirk U. Wulff
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Sexually Transmitted Diseases ◽  
Personal Experience ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Modern World ◽  
Precise Description ◽  
Sexually Transmitted ◽  
Risk Event ◽  
Research Questions ◽  
The Impact

The modern world holds countless risks for humanity, both large-scale and intimately personal—from cyberwarfare, pandemics, and climate change to sexually transmitted diseases and drug use and abuse. Many risks have prompted institutional, regulatory, and technological countermeasures, the success of which depends to some extent on how individuals learn about the risks in question. We distinguish between two powerful but imperfect teachers of risk. First, people may learn by consulting symbolic and descriptive material, such as warnings, statistics, and images. More often than not, however, a risk’s fluidity defies precise description. Second, people may learn about risks through personal experience. Responses to risk can differ systematically depending on whether people learn through one mode, both, or neither. One reason for these differences—and by no means the only reason—is the discrepancy in the cognitive impact that rare events (typically the risk event) and common events (typically the nonoccurrence of the risk event) have on the decision maker. We propose a description–experience framework that highlights not only the impact of each mode of learning but also the effects of their interplay on individuals’ and collectives’ responses to risk. We outline numerous research questions and themes suggested by this framework.

scholarly journals A Description–Experience Framework of the Dynamic Response to Risk

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ralph Hertwig ◽  
Dirk U. Wulff
Keyword(s):  
Personal Experience ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Modern World ◽  
Cyber Warfare ◽  
Precise Description ◽  
Sexually Transmitted ◽  
Dynamic Relationship ◽  
Risk Event ◽  
New Perspective ◽  
Relationship Of

The modern world holds countless risks for humanity, both large-scale and intimately personal—from cyber warfare, pandemics, and climate change to sexually transmitted diseases and drug use and abuse. Many risks have prompted institutional, regulatory, and technological countermeasures, the success of which depends to some extent on how individuals learn about the risks. We distinguish between two powerful but imperfect teachers of risk. First, people may learn by consulting symbolic and descriptive material, such as warnings, statistics, and images. Yet more often than not, a risk’s fluidity defies precise description. Second, people may learn about risks through personal experience. Responses to risk can differ systematically depending on whether people learn through one mode, both, or neither. One important reason for these differences is the discrepancy in the cognitive impact that rare events (typically the risk event) and common events (typically the non-occurrence of the risk event) have on the decision maker. We propose a description–experience framework that highlights the dynamic relationship of description and experience and the importance of the statistical structure of risk events and that offers a new perspective on humans’ sometimes puzzling responses to risks.

scholarly journals Impact of air–sea coupling on the climate change signal over the Iberian Peninsula

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alba de la Vara ◽  
William Cabos ◽  
Dmitry V. Sein ◽  
Claas Teichmann ◽  
Daniela Jacob
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Iberian Peninsula ◽  
Mediterranean Sea ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Regional Distribution ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Climate Change Signal ◽  
The North ◽  
The Mediterranean ◽  
The Impact

AbstractIn this work we use a regional atmosphere–ocean coupled model (RAOCM) and its stand-alone atmospheric component to gain insight into the impact of atmosphere–ocean coupling on the climate change signal over the Iberian Peninsula (IP). The IP climate is influenced by both the Atlantic Ocean and the Mediterranean sea. Complex interactions with the orography take place there and high-resolution models are required to realistically reproduce its current and future climate. We find that under the RCP8.5 scenario, the generalized 2-m air temperature (T2M) increase by the end of the twenty-first century (2070–2099) in the atmospheric-only simulation is tempered by the coupling. The impact of coupling is specially seen in summer, when the warming is stronger. Precipitation shows regionally-dependent changes in winter, whilst a drier climate is found in summer. The coupling generally reduces the magnitude of the changes. Differences in T2M and precipitation between the coupled and uncoupled simulations are caused by changes in the Atlantic large-scale circulation and in the Mediterranean Sea. Additionally, the differences in projected changes of T2M and precipitation with the RAOCM under the RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 scenarios are tackled. Results show that in winter and summer T2M increases less and precipitation changes are of a smaller magnitude with the RCP4.5. Whilst in summer changes present a similar regional distribution in both runs, in winter there are some differences in the NW of the IP due to differences in the North Atlantic circulation. The differences in the climate change signal from the RAOCM and the driving Global Coupled Model show that regionalization has an effect in terms of higher resolution over the land and ocean.

scholarly journals Understanding epistemic uncertainty in large-scale coastal flood risk assessment for present and future climates

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michalis I. Vousdoukas ◽  
Dimitrios Bouziotas ◽  
Alessio Giardino ◽  
Laurens M. Bouwer ◽  
Evangelos Voukouvalas ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Flood Risk ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Epistemic Uncertainty ◽  
Coastal Protection ◽  
Flood Risk Assessment ◽  
Coastal Flood ◽  
Coastal Flood Risk ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. An upscaling of flood risk assessment frameworks beyond regional and national scales has taken place during recent years, with a number of large-scale models emerging as tools for hotspot identification, support for international policy-making and harmonization of climate change adaptation strategies. There is, however, limited insight on the scaling effects and structural limitations of flood risk models and, therefore, the underlying uncertainty. In light of this, we examine key sources of epistemic uncertainty in the Coastal Flood Risk (CFR) modelling chain: (i) the inclusion and interaction of different hydraulic components leading to extreme sea-level (ESL); (ii) inundation modelling; (iii) the underlying uncertainty in the Digital Elevation Model (DEM); (iv) flood defence information; (v) the assumptions behind the use of depth-damage functions that express vulnerability; and (vi) different climate change projections. The impact of these uncertainties to estimated Expected Annual Damage (EAD) for present and future climates is evaluated in a dual case study in Faro, Portugal and in the Iberian Peninsula. The ranking of the uncertainty factors varies among the different case studies, baseline CFR estimates, as well as their absolute/relative changes. We find that uncertainty from ESL contributions, and in particular the way waves are treated, can be higher than the uncertainty of the two greenhouse gas emission projections and six climate models that are used. Of comparable importance is the quality of information on coastal protection levels and DEM information. In the absence of large-extent datasets with sufficient resolution and accuracy the latter two factors are the main bottlenecks in terms of large-scale CFR assessment quality.

scholarly journals Impact of climate change on groundwater point discharge: backflooding of karstic springs (Loiret, France)

2011 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 2235-2262
Author(s):  
E. Joigneaux ◽  
P. Albéric ◽  
H. Pauwels ◽  
C. Pagé ◽  
L. Terray ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Surface Water ◽  
Groundwater Quality ◽  
Atmospheric Circulation ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Weather Type ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Large Scale Atmospheric Circulation

Abstract. Under certain hydrological conditions it is possible for spring flow in karst systems to be reversed. When this occurs, the resulting invasion by surface water, i.e. the backflooding, represents a serious threat to groundwater quality because the surface water could well be contaminated. Here we examine the possible impact of future climate change on the occurrences of backflooding in a specific karst system, having first established the occurrence of such events in the selected study area over the past 40 yr. It would appear that backflooding has been more frequent since the 1980s, and that it is apparently linked to river flow variability on the pluri-annual scale. The avenue that we adopt here for studying recent and future variations of these events is based on a downscaling algorithm relating large-scale atmospheric circulation to local precipitation spatial patterns. The large-scale atmospheric circulation is viewed as a set of quasi-stationary and recurrent states, called weather types, and its variability as the transition between them. Based on a set of climate model projections, simulated changes in weather-type occurrence for the end of the century suggests that backflooding events can be expected to decrease in 2075–2099. If such is the case, then the potential risk for groundwater quality in the area will be greatly reduced compared to the current situation. Finally, our results also show the potential interest of the weather-type based downscaling approach for examining the impact of climate change on hydrological systems.

scholarly journals Male Urethritis Caused by Trichomonas vaginalis

2021 ◽  
Vol 79 (1) ◽  
pp. 71-73
Author(s):  
Ângela Roda ◽  
João Borges-Costa
Keyword(s):  
Sexually Transmitted Infections ◽  
Sexually Transmitted Diseases ◽  
Trichomonas Vaginalis ◽  
Unusual Case ◽  
Parasitic Infection ◽  
Men And Women ◽  
Sexually Transmitted ◽  
Molecular Assays ◽  
The Past ◽  
The Impact

Trichomoniasis is one of the most common sexually transmitted infections worldwide. In women, Trichomonas vaginalis infection may present with vaginitis, cervicitis, or pelvic inflammatory disease, while in men it is mainly asymptomatic or causes mild and transient symptoms of urethritis, epididymitis, or prostatitis. In the past, little importance had been given to the impact of T. vaginalis infection on men’s health, since it was believed to be a self-limited condition without sequelae. However, there is growing evidence it is associated with more serious disorders in both men and women and efforts to diagnose and treat this parasitic infection have increased. Recent advances in testing for sexually transmitted diseases using multiplex molecular assays have increased diagnostic opportunities for T. vaginalis infection, especially in men, as detection of the parasite by traditional methods is much more challenging. We describe an unusual case of male urethritis caused by T. vaginalis observed in our consultation of Sexually Transmitted Infections.

Vulnerability of coastal areas to increased aquifer saturation due to climate change

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alexandre Gauvain ◽  
Ronan Abhervé ◽  
Jean-Raynald de Dreuzy ◽  
Luc Aquilina ◽  
Frédéric Gresselin
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Regional Scale ◽  
Drainage System ◽  
Hydrological Regime ◽  
Coastal Areas ◽  
Western Coast ◽  
Study Sites ◽  
The Impact

<p>Like in other relatively flat coastal areas, flooding by aquifer overflow is a recurring problem on the western coast of Normandy (France). Threats are expected to be enhanced by the rise of the sea level and to have critical consequences on the future development and management of the territory. The delineation of the increased saturation areas is a required step to assess the impact of climate change locally. Preliminary models showed that vulnerability does not result only from the sea side but also from the continental side through the modifications of the hydrological regime.</p><p>We investigate the processes controlling these coastal flooding phenomena by using hydrogeological models calibrated at large scale with an innovative method reproducing the hydrographic network. Reference study sites selected for their proven sensitivity to flooding have been used to validate the methodology and determine the influence of the different geomorphological configurations frequently encountered along the coastal line.</p><p>Hydrogeological models show that the rise of the sea level induces an irregular increase in coastal aquifer saturations extending up to several kilometers inland. Back-littoral channels traditionally used as a large-scale drainage system against high tides limits the propagation of aquifer saturation upstream, provided that channels are not dominantly under maritime influence. High seepage fed by increased recharge occurring in climatic extremes may extend the vulnerable areas and further limit the effectiveness of the drainage system. Local configurations are investigated to categorize the influence of the local geological and geomorphological structures and upscale it at the regional scale.</p>

Estimates of future flood risk in Western Europe and its potential impact on insured losses.

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Remi Meynadier ◽  
Hugo Rakotoarimanga ◽  
Madeleine-Sophie Deroche ◽  
Sylvain Buisine
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Flood Risk ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Western Europe ◽  
Complex Nature ◽  
Flood Risks ◽  
Hazard Exposure ◽  
Modelling Framework ◽  
Loss Modelling ◽  
The Impact

<p>The large-scale and complex nature of climate change makes it difficult to assess and quantify the impact on insurance activities. Climate change is likely affecting the probability of natural hazard occurrence in terms of severity and/or frequency.</p><p>Natural catastrophe risk is a function of hazard, exposure and vulnerability. As a (re)-insurer it is seen that changes in year-on-year losses are a function of all these components and not just the hazard.</p><p>The present study focuses, in a first step, on assessing impacts of climate change on fluvial flood risks in Europe solely due to changes in hazard itself. A stochastic catalogue of future flood risk events is derived from Pan-European data sets of river flood probability of occurrence produced within EU FP7 RAIN project. The loss modelling framework internally developed at AXA is then used to provide a geographical view of changes in future flood risks.</p><p> </p>

scholarly journals Economics of the disintegration of the Greenland ice sheet

2019 ◽  
Vol 116 (25) ◽  
pp. 12261-12269 ◽  
Author(s):  
William Nordhaus
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Social Cost ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Greenland Ice Sheet ◽  
Reduced Form ◽  
Small Contribution ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
The Impact

Concerns about the impact on large-scale earth systems have taken center stage in the scientific and economic analysis of climate change. The present study analyzes the economic impact of a potential disintegration of the Greenland ice sheet (GIS). The study introduces an approach that combines long-run economic growth models, climate models, and reduced-form GIS models. The study demonstrates that social cost–benefit analysis and damage-limiting strategies can be usefully extended to illuminate issues with major long-term consequences, as well as concerns such as potential tipping points, irreversibility, and hysteresis. A key finding is that, under a wide range of assumptions, the risk of GIS disintegration makes a small contribution to the optimal stringency of current policy or to the overall social cost of climate change. It finds that the cost of GIS disintegration adds less than 5% to the social cost of carbon (SCC) under alternative discount rates and estimates of the GIS dynamics.

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