scholarly journals Development and Analysis of a Weighed Prognostic Model in Newly Diagnosed Multiple Myeloma Patients

Blood ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 136 (Supplement 1) ◽  
pp. 47-48
Author(s):  
Xue-Han Mao ◽  
Yan Xu ◽  
Yuting Yan ◽  
Jiahui Liu ◽  
Huishou Fan ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Multiple Myeloma ◽  
Multivariate Analysis ◽  
Prognostic Factors ◽  
High Risk ◽  
Prognostic Factor ◽  
Prognostic Model ◽  
Cytogenetic Abnormalities ◽  
Total Score Range ◽  
Prognosis Model

Background and Objective: Multiple myeloma (MM) is characterized with significant cytogenetic changes and complex tumor microenvironment, thus patient survival is extremely heterogeneous. Various disease-related or patient-related factors affect the prognosis of patients. This study tried to analyze the prognostic indicators of patients with newly-treated MM, especially explored the prognosis of multiple cytogenetic abnormalities and the ratio of lymphocytes to monocytes (LMR). Additionally, we established a comprehensive prognostic model to help determine the patient prognosis. Methods: After screening, 603 patients of untreated MM from January 2008 to June 2017, with complete baseline indicators were enrolled into the study. By univariate and multivariate Cox analysis, risk factors related to the prognosis of patients were evaluated, and a weighted prognosis model was established to compare the survival differences of patients in each risk stratification. Result: Optimal thresholds of ALC, LWR, NLR and LMR were determined by ROC curve and Youdex index: ALC = 1.415, LWR = 0.325, NLR = 1.935, LMR = 2.95. Survival analysis showed that patients with LMR ≤ 2.95, ALC ≥ 1.415 and LWR ≥ 0.325 had significantly better survival compared with their respective control groups. Cox multivariate analysis showed that among the four indicators, only LMR≤2.95 was an independent adverse prognostic factor for overall survival (OS)(Figure 1A). 17p deletion, 1q21 amplification, t (4; 14) / t (14; 16) were define as high-risk cytogenetic abnormalities (HRA). Of the 603 patients, about 60% were associated with at least one high-risk cytogenetic event. Among them, the occurrence of cumulative 0, 1, 2, and 3 HRA were 39.6% (239/603), 42.5% (256/603), 16.6% (100/603), and 1.3% (8/603), respectively. There was no significant difference in survival among patients with same number of HRAs. The median OS of patients with 0, 1 and ≥ 2 HRA were not reached, 62.1 months (95% CI, 49.3-74.9) and 30.4 months (95% CI, 24.5-36.3), respectively (p <0.001)(Figure 1B).Final Cox regression model showed that age 65 ~ 74 (HR=1.77, 95%CI, 1.24-2.51, p=0.001), age ≥75 (HR=2.46, 95%CI, 1.69-3.58, p < 0.001), LDH≥247 U/L (HR =1.65, 95%CI, 1.07-2.51, p=0.023), ISS stage III (HR=1.76, 95%CI, 1.24-2.50, p=0.002), LMR≤2.95 (HR=1.53, 95%CI, 1.08-2.18, p=0.017), 1 HRA (HR=1.87, 95%CI, 1.27-2.75, p=0.002) and ≥2 HRA (HR=3.48, 95%CI, 2.22-5.45, p<0.001) are independent adverse prognostic factors for OS. Then weighted risk factors were summed to establish a comprehensive prognosis model, with a total score range of 0-6 points. Accordingly, the whole cohort was divided into low risk (0-1 points, 45.4%), intermediate risk (2 points, 27.9%), high risk (3 points, 19.2%) and ultra-high risk (4-6 points, 7.5 %) groups. The median OS of the four risk groups were 85.8 months (67.1-104.5), 49.0 months (44.7-53.3), 35.4 months (31.3-39.5), and 23.2 months (18.8-27.6), respectively (p<0.001). The C-statistics of this prognostic model is 0.68 (95% CI, 0.64-0.71), which is significantly better than the D-S stage (C-statistics = 0.52, 95% CI, 0.50-0.55, p <0.001), ISS (C-statistics = 0.60, 95% CI, 0.57-0.64, p <0.001) and R-ISS stage (C-statistics = 0.60, 95% CI, 0.57-0.63, p <0.001). Bootstrap resampling and calibration curve showed that the model has an accurate predictive effect on both short-term and long-term prognosis of patients(Figure 1C). Conclusion: In our analysis, ALC, LWR, LMR were associated with poor prognosis in NDMM patients, while NLR had no significant prognostic significance. Among the four indicators, LMR≤2.95 was the only independent prognostic factor. In NDMM patients, survival of patients with the same number of high-risk cytogenetic abnormalities were comparable with each other, regardless of whichever combination of HRA. Higher number of high-risk cytogenetic abnormalities were associated with worse prognosis. Cox multivariate analysis showed that, old age (65-74 years old, ≥75 years old), increased LDH (≥247 U/L), decreased LMR (≤2.95), ISS III, 1 HRA and ≥ 2 HRA were independent adverse prognostic factors that affect the OS of MM patients. 4. A comprehensive weighted prognostic model was established with the above factors, which was proved to effectively distinguish different prognosis of patients. Figure 1 Disclosures No relevant conflicts of interest to declare.

The Interaction of Response and FISH-Based Risk Stratification to Better Define Clinical Outcome in Myeloma

Blood ◽  
2011 ◽  
Vol 118 (21) ◽  
pp. 1823-1823
Author(s):  
Kevin D Boyd ◽  
Fiona M Ross ◽  
Mark T Drayson ◽  
Roger G Owen ◽  
Alex J Szubert ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Multivariate Analysis ◽  
Prognostic Factors ◽  
High Risk ◽  
Prognostic Factor ◽  
Induction Therapy ◽  
Response Rates ◽  
Phase Iii ◽  
Prognostic Impact ◽  
Cell Transplant ◽  
Important Prognostic Factor

Abstract Abstract 1823 Background: The achievement of a complete response (CR) is an important prognostic factor in myeloma. The international staging system (ISS) and tumor genetic lesions detected by FISH also impact survival. It is not known whether response rates are adversely affected by these factors, whether achieving CR overcomes the adverse prognosis associated with these factors, or if achievement of CR is more important in a specific biological subgroup. We have examined the importance of CR in the context of these other prognostic factors in the intensive arm of a phase III randomized trial, MRC Myeloma IX, in which all patients were planned to proceed to autologous stem cell transplant (ASCT) after induction. Patients and Methods: Patients were randomized to a conventional or thalidomide-based induction regimen followed by ASCT, with a second randomization to maintenance thalidomide versus no maintenance. Response was assessed after completion of induction therapy and 100 days post-ASCT. iFISH was performed on diagnostic bone marrow samples and genetic lesions associated with adverse progression free survival (PFS) were defined as t(4;14), t(14;16), t(14;20), +1q and 17p-. Results: To confirm that CR was prognostically important in the data set, patients with a CR at 100 days post-ASCT (N=355) were compared to non-CR (N=344) (comprising VGPR, PR and SD). CR was strongly associated with improved PFS (median 30.8 months vs 38.7 months, P<0.001) but was not associated with improved OS at median follow-up of 3.7 years. Response rates were assessed in the context of other prognostic factors. Interestingly, the presence of high risk FISH lesions was not associated with impaired CR rates following induction therapy (P=0.584) or following ASCT (P=0.314). Patients without adverse genetic lesions had a CR rate of 11.1% post-induction which improved to 48.3% post-ASCT. In comparison, patients with adverse FISH lesions had a 13.3% CR rate, rising to 44.9% post ASCT. Similarly, there was no correlation between ISS stage and response. The absence of adverse FISH lesions (hazard ratio (HR) 2.68 (1.94-3.70) P<0.001) and achievement of CR (HR 1.58 (1.15-2.17) P=0.005) were independently associated with improved PFS in multivariate analysis. The prognostic impact of achieving CR was assessed in various prognostic groups. CR was associated with improved PFS in patients with no adverse FISH lesions (N=179)(median PFS 58.4 vs 37.1 months, P=0.031), and in ISS I (N=182)(median PFS 51.2 vs 33.2 months, P=0.008). In patients with adverse FISH lesions, and in ISS II and III, there was a trend towards improved PFS with CR that was not significant. For patients achieving CR as their maximum response (N=398), in a multivariate analysis including the ISS, the presence of high risk FISH lesions was the most significant factor associated with impaired PFS and OS. Patients with more than 1 adverse FISH lesion were associated with an especially high risk of progression or death (PFS HR 6.63 (3.23-13.53) P<0.001; OS HR 5.35 (1.98-14.45) P=0.001). Conclusion: These data show that attainment of CR is an important prognostic factor associated with improved PFS in patients treated with ASCT, and this benefit was most significant in patients with favorable prognostic factors such as lack of adverse FISH lesions and ISS I. The presence of t(4;14), t(14;16), t(14;20), +1q or 17p- was also strongly associated with PFS, and the impaired outcome associated with these adverse genetic lesions was not overcome by achievement of CR, within the context of the therapies used in this trial. The presence of more than 1 adverse FISH lesion identified a patient group with an especially poor prognosis, despite achieving CR. However, CR rates within these high risk patients were similar to patients without adverse genetic features, showing that they were sensitive to chemotherapy, but progressed quickly after therapy was stopped. The implication of these data is that it may be possible to improve the poor outcome of this genetically-defined high risk group with an alternative treatment strategy aimed at maintaining these responses. Disclosures: Gregory: Celgene: Honoraria. Child:Celgene: Honoraria.

Superior Rate of Complete Response with up-Front Velcade-Thalidomide-Dexamethasone Versus Thalidomide-Dexamethasone in Newly Diagnosed Multiple Myeloma Is Not Affected by Adverse Prognostic Factors, Including High-Risk Cytogenetic Abnormalities.

Blood ◽  
2008 ◽  
Vol 112 (11) ◽  
pp. 1662-1662
Author(s):  
Michele Cavo ◽  
Nicoletta Testoni ◽  
Carolina Terragna ◽  
Giulia Marzocchi ◽  
Sandra Durante ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Multiple Myeloma ◽  
Bone Marrow ◽  
Multivariate Analysis ◽  
Prognostic Factors ◽  
High Risk ◽  
Light Chain ◽  
Complete Response ◽  
Phase Iii ◽  
Newly Diagnosed ◽  
Cox Regression Analysis

Abstract Complete response (CR) is an important objective of autologous stem-cell transplantation (ASCT) in multiple myeloma (MM). In comparison with conventional induction treatments, newer combinations of novel agents may effect increased rates of CR and near CR (nCR), a benefit potentially translating into even higher frequencies of CR/nCR after ASCT and improved clinical outcome. We designed a phase III study to detect an increase in CR+nCR rates from 10–15% with conventional Thalidomide-Dexamethasone (TD) to 20–30% with Velcade added to TD (VTD) in newly diagnosed MM. Both TD and VTD were given as three 21-day cycles in preparation for double ASCT. In the present analysis, CR+nCR rates by the two induction treatments were examined in relationship to baseline prognostic variables in 399 evaluable pts aged ≤65 years, of whom 199 randomized to VTD and 200 to TD. All analyses were intent to treat. In comparison with TD, VTD effected higher rates of CR+nCR (12% vs 33%, P&lt;0.001) and of ≥very good partial response (VGPR) (30% vs 61%, P&lt;0.001). By univariate analysis, superiority of VTD to TD was maintained across all sub-group analyses according to standard prognostic factors, including β2-m, albumin, stage (ISS), Hb, PLTs, bone marrow PC, M protein isotype, LDH, CRP. In particular, the rates of CR+nCR with VTD vs TD in pts with standard poor prognostic factors were as follows: ISS stage 3 (23.5% vs 6%, P=0.03), Hb&lt;10 g/dL (24% vs 4%, P=0.002), PLTs&lt;150.000/μL (35% vs 4%, P=0.009), bone marrow PC ≥50% (31% vs 13%, P&lt;0.001), IgA isotype (63% vs 15%, P&lt;0.001), LDH &gt;190 U/L (33% vs 9%, P&lt;0.001), CRP ≥8 mg/L (29% vs 10%, P=0.004). We next examined CR+nCRs by treatment arms in relationship to cytogenetics (FISH data available in 93% to 99% of all pts). Superior CR+nCR rates were effected by VTD vs TD in the presence of high-risk cytogenetics, including del(13) (39% vs 10%, P&lt;0.001), t(4;14) (39.5% vs 10%, P=0.002), combined t(4;14) and del(13) (32% vs 0%, P=0.001), and del(17p) (28.5% vs 0%, P=0.03). Remarkably, when examined in the context of the VTD arm, high-quality response rates were significantly higher for pts carrying del(13) and t(4;14) vs those who lacked these abnormalities [del(13): CR+nCR:39% vs 24%, P=0.03; ≥VGPR: 71% vs 48%, P=0.001] [t(4;14): ≥VGPR:79% vs 55%, P=0.007)]. An opposite trend was noted for pts in the TD arm, whose probability to attain ≥VGPR was adversely affected by the presence of del(13) (P=0.07) and del(17p) (P=0.03). Variables associated with achievement of CR+nCR in the two arms that retained statistical significance when assessed by multivariate Cox regression analysis included randomization to VTD (P&lt;0.001), light chain only subtype (P&lt;0.001), IgA isotype (P&lt;0.001) and Hb&gt;10 g/dL (P=0.01). In the VTD arm, a positive correlation was observed with del(13) (P=0.006) and t(4;14) (P=0.02). Response to first ASCT with melphalan 200 mg/m2 could be evaluated in 297 pts, of whom 145 randomized to VTD and 152 to TD. Randomization to VTD was closely associated with increased CR+nCR rates (54% vs 29% with TD, P&lt;0.001) and remained statistically significant (P&lt;0.001) also in the multivariate analysis. Additional factors predicting for superior post-ASCT CR+nCR rates in the multivariate setting included light chain only subtype (P&lt;0.001) and IgA isotype (P=0.005). We conclude that randomization to up-front VTD was the strongest and independent factor associated with increased rates of CR+nCR before ASCT. Superiority of VTD to TD pertained in both low-risk and high-risk sub-groups, including the traditionally unfavorable sub-groups carrying del(13), t(4,14) and del(17p). Remarkably, in the VTD arm improved postinduction CR+nCR rates were significantly associated with the presence of del(13) and t(4;14) in the multivariate analysis. Benefit from VTD vs TD as primary induction therapy translated into significantly improved CR+nCR rates after the first ASCT and remained statistically significant when assessed by multivariate analysis.

Soluble Interleukin-2 Receptors (sIL-2R) Is An Independent Prognostic Factor for Patients with Diffuse Large B Cell Lymphoma Treated with R-CHOP

Blood ◽  
2011 ◽  
Vol 118 (21) ◽  
pp. 2678-2678
Author(s):  
Noriko Nishimura ◽  
Masahiro Yokoyama ◽  
Kengo Takeuchi ◽  
Naoko Tsuyama ◽  
Eriko Nara ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Prognostic Factors ◽  
Prognostic Factor ◽  
Serum Level ◽  
Prognostic Model ◽  
Cell Lymphoma ◽  
B Cell Lymphoma ◽  
Large B Cell Lymphoma ◽  
Large B Cell

Abstract Abstract 2678 Background: Diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL) is a heterogeneous disease characterized by a wide range of clinical outcomes. Rituximab added to CHOP (cyclophosphamide, doxorubicin, vincristine, and prednisone) chemotherapy, R-CHOP has made a marked improvement in outcome in patients with DLBCL. The International Prognostic Index (IPI), which consists of age > 60 years, stage III/IV, elevated lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) level, Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group (ECOG) performance status (PS) † 2, and more than one extranodal (EN) site of disease, remains the most commonly used system for risk classification in DLBCL. However, recent studies suggested that new agent has altered the significance of previously recognized risk factors. Here we investigate the prognostic impact of reported risk factors in a large DLBCL patient cohort in a single institute to determine a better prognostic model in rituximab era. Patients and Methods: In total, 250 newly diagnosed DLBCL patients treated with R-CHOP regimen at the Cancer Institute Hospital of JFCR between October 2003 and December 2008 were included and analyzed. Progression free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS) were estimated using the Kaplan-Meier method and compared among risk groups using the log rank test. The Cox proportional hazards model was used to test the significance of prognostic factors. ROC curve was used to determine optimal serum level of sIL-2R and LDH as a cut off value for 4-year mortality risk. Results: The median age of patients was 65 years (range 23–88 years), 56% were male. The median follow-up time was 49 months (range 1–90 months) and 39 deaths had been recorded by the time of the last follow-up. The IPI still remains predictive with an OS ranging from 52.4% to 91.6% at 4 years; however it cannot discriminate between low and low-intermediate group. Revised IPI was valid as well with an OS ranging from 63.3% to 97%. In univariate analysis, elevated sIL-2R level, B symptom, elevated LDH level, PS>2, age>65, stage III/IV, CD5 positive, and EN>1 were significant as poor prognostic factors whereas sex, bulky mass, MIB1 index >90%, Non-GCB were not. Furthermore, multivariate analysis showed that only sIL-2R>924U/ml, CD5 expression, and EN>1 were significant with relative hazard 1.4∼17.5, 1.4∼8.9, and 1.3∼4.7, respectively. As elevated sIL-2R was the most powerful prognostic factor, we performed further analysis on this parameter. Average serum sIL-2R level was 2,775U/ml (range from 220U/ml to 43,100U/ml) with a normal limit of upper is 230U/ml. ROC curve demonstrated that serum sIL-2R was more optimal value than serum LDH to identify high risk patients for 4-year mortality after initiation of R-CHOP therapy and cutoff value of sIL-2R was 924U/ml (1.73 upper limit of normal). sIL-2R level can be divided into three distinctprognostic groups. Patients with sIL-2R<925U/ml fall into a very good group with a 4-year OS:98% and 4-year PFS:90.7%, patients with 925U/ml<=sIL-2R<4,625U/mlfall into a good group with a 4-year OS:82% and 4-year PFS:77.7%, and patients with sIL-2R>=4,625U/ml fall into a poor group with a 4-year OS:59.6% and 4-year PFS:54.7% (P < 0.001). Conclusions: sIL-2R level is an independent and powerful prognostic factor in serum level dependent manner in DLBCL patients treated with R-CHOP. This prognostic model should be reassessed on a larger scale and prospective study. Disclosures: No relevant conflicts of interest to declare.

Impact of Immune Parameters on Long-Term Survival in Metastatic Renal Cell Carcinoma

2006 ◽  
Vol 24 (13) ◽  
pp. 1997-2005 ◽  
Author(s):  
Frede Donskov ◽  
Hans von der Maase
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Renal Cell Carcinoma ◽  
Multivariate Analysis ◽  
Prognostic Factors ◽  
Renal Cell ◽  
Prognostic Model ◽  
Tumor Tissue ◽  
Hazard Ratio ◽  
Clinical Factors ◽  
The Impact

Purpose The purpose of this study was to evaluate the impact of immunologic prognostic factors in combination with established clinical prognostic factors in patients with metastatic renal cell carcinoma (mRCC). Patients and Methods A total of 120 consecutive patients with mRCC received interleukin-2 (IL-2) -based immunotherapy. Baseline tumor biopsies were available from 85 of these patients. Potential prognostic factors were analyzed by univariate and multivariate analyses. Results Multivariate analysis (N = 120) identified high lactate dehydrogenase, lymph node metastases, low hemoglobin, low Karnofsky performance status, and bone metastases as independent poor prognostic clinical factors. The impact of these clinical factors has been demonstrated by others. Multivariate analysis (n = 85) also identified a high blood neutrophil count (> 6.0 × 109/L; hazard ratio, 2.0; P = .015), the presence of intratumoral neutrophils (> 0 cells/mm2 tumor tissue; hazard ratio, 2.3; P = .001), and low intratumoral CD57+ natural killer cell count (< 50 cells/mm2 tumor tissue; hazard ratio, 2.1; P = .01) as independent poor prognostic immunologic factors. These three independent immunologic parameters had significant discriminatory power as supplemental risk factors in prognostic models based on the clinical risk factors, identifying subgroups within the favorable clinical group with estimated 5-year survival rates of 60%, 25%, and 0%, respectively. These findings were apparent in both our own prognostic model and in an extended Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center (New York, NY) prognostic model. Conclusion This study points on five clinical and three supplemental immunologic independent prognostic factors of survival in patients with mRCC receiving IL-2.

scholarly journals Benefit of Two Additional Cycles of Bortezomib/Thalidomide/Dexamethasone (VTD) Induction Therapy Compared to Four Cycles of VTD for Newly Diagnosed Multiple Myeloma

Blood ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 132 (Supplement 1) ◽  
pp. 3252-3252
Author(s):  
Yoojin Lee ◽  
Kihyun Kim ◽  
Sang Kyun Sohn ◽  
Dongwon Back ◽  
Joon Ho Moon ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Multiple Myeloma ◽  
Multivariate Analysis ◽  
Prognostic Factors ◽  
Prognostic Factor ◽  
Induction Therapy ◽  
Conflicts Of Interest ◽  
Stage I ◽  
High Dose ◽  
Newly Diagnosed ◽  
Favorable Prognostic Factor

Abstract Introduction Four cycles of bortezomib/thalidomide/dexamethasone (VTD) induction therapy followed by autologous stem cell transplantation (ASCT) is one of the standard therapy for patients aged less than 65 years with newly diagnosed multiple myeloma (NDMM). Complete remission (CR) status before ASCT is an important prognostic factor for progression-free survival (PFS). We analyzed whether two additional cycles of VTD improved the pre- and post-transplant responses as well as PFS compared to the four cycles of VTD induction therapy. Methods A total of 222 patients with NDMM between September 2014 and August 2016 from eleven hospitals in South Korea were included in the current study. The patients received at least four or more cycles of VTD induction therapy before administration of high-dose therapy (HDT, melphalan 200mg/m2) followed by ASCT. VTD regimen was consisted of bortezomib subcutaneous infusion (1.3 mg/m2 on days 1, 4, 8, and 11), thalidomide (100 mg daily), and dexamethasone (40 mg on days 1-4, 8-11), which was administered every 4 weeks. Results The median age was 57 years (range 30−64 years), and 120 patients (61.9%) were male. Revised international scoring system (R-ISS) classified 59 (30.4%), 86 (44.3%), and 49 patients (25.3%) as stage I, II, and III, respectively. VTD induction was administered 4 cycles in 194 patients (VTD4, 67.5%) and more than 4 cycles in 63 (VTD6, 32.5%) before HDT. Patient characteristics at diagnosis did not differ between VTD4 and VTD6. CR rate before HDT was significantly higher in VTD6 than VTD4 (31.7% vs 13.0%, P = 0.003). However, CR rate after HDT/ASCT was similar between VTD4 and VTD6 (69.0% vs 65.5%, P = 0.726). There was no difference in the incidence of peripheral neuropathy (PN) (≥ grade 2 or that required dose reduction) between two groups. The median follow-up duration was 18.0 months (range 7.0-43.8 months). The 2-year PFS did not differ between the two groups (51.7 ±5.7% in VTD4 and 62.1±8.6% in VTD6, P = 0.240). Multivariate analysis revealed that the achievement of CR was a favorable prognostic factor for PFS (HR 0.27 [0.08−0.90], P = 0.034). Deletion 17p (HR 2.87 [1.01−7.92], P = 0.048) and t(4;14) (HR 3.38 [1.76−6.48], P < 0.001) in FISH were adverse prognostic factors for PFS. Patients with stage I/II by R-ISS receiving additional two cycles of VTD showed prolonged PFS (median PFS not reached vs. 27.6 months, P = 0.034). In the multivariate analysis, VTD6 was a favorable prognostic factor for PFS for patients with stage I/II by R-ISS, (HR 0.11 [0.02−0.52], P = 0.005). Conclusion CR rates increased with additional cycles of VTD induction therapy for NDMM. However, the PFS benefit was observed only in patients with R-ISS stage I/II. For patients with high-risk MM, intensive induction therapy that overcome poor prognostic factors should be administered to improve long-term outcomes. Figure. Figure. Disclosures No relevant conflicts of interest to declare.

scholarly journals Clinical Significance of Additional Cytogenetic Abnormalities (ACA) at Disease Progression in Patients with High-Risk Myelodysplastic Syndrome (MDS) Treated with Azacitidine

Blood ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 134 (Supplement_1) ◽  
pp. 5434-5434
Author(s):  
Chiaki Naito ◽  
Hiroaki Shimizu ◽  
Yuri Miyazawa ◽  
Takuma Ishizaki ◽  
Akihiko Yokohama ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Multivariate Analysis ◽  
Prognostic Factors ◽  
High Risk ◽  
Disease Progression ◽  
Lymphoblastic Leukemia ◽  
Univariate Analysis ◽  
Philadelphia Chromosome ◽  
Complex Karyotype ◽  
Cytogenetic Abnormalities ◽  
Cytogenetic Changes

Background: Although cytogenetic abnormalities at diagnosis are recognized as one of the most important prognostic factors in MDS patients, their cytogenetic findings are not stable and ACA are sometimes acquired in their clinical courses. We recently described that ACA acquisition at relapse was found in 40% and associated with the lower second complete remission (CR) rate and the inferior overall survival (OS) rate in adult patients with acute myeloid leukemia (AML) and Philadelphia chromosome-negative acute lymphoblastic leukemia (Ph-negative ALL). However, this clinical impact of ACA acquisition has not been elucidated in high-risk MDS patients during azacitidine treatment. So, we conducted this retrospective study to address this unsolved issue. Patients and methods: Of the 63 patients who were diagnosed as high-risk MDS according to French-American-British classification and were treated with azacitidine between 2012 and 2019, 34 whose cytogenetic data both at diagnosis and disease progression were available were included in this study. Treatment response to azacitidine was evaluated based on international working group response criteria for myelodysplasia. Cytogenetic changes between the time of diagnosis and disease progression were classified into four groups: (1) no change, (2) ACA was acquired at time of disease progression, (3) cytogenetic abnormalities observed at diagnosis were reduced or had disappeared at the time of disease progression, and (4) cytogenetic abnormalities observed at diagnosis were reduced or had disappeared, and completely different ACA was acquired at the time of disease progression. In this study, groups 2 and 4 were defined as those with ACA acquisition. OS was defined as the interval from the date of disease progression to the date of death. Fisher's exact test was used to compare binary variables. OS was estimated with the Kaplan-Meier method and compared using the log-rank test. The Cox proportional hazard model was used for multivariate analysis of prognostic factors. The potential factors evaluated in this analysis were age, gender, blast count in bone marrow (< or => 10%), karyotype (complex or not), revised international prognostic scoring sysytem (high/high-intermediate or not), and response to azacitidine (CR/partial remission or not). Values of p < 0.05 were considered to indicate statistical significance. Results: Of the 34 patients included in this study, 25 were male and 9 were female, and the median age was 66 years (range, 38-78 years). According to the definition described above regarding cytogenetic changes between the time of diagnosis and disease progression, 11 (32%), 14 (41%), 0 (0%), and 9 (26%) patients were categorized into group 1, 2, 3, and 4, respectively; thus, 23 patients (67%) acquired ACA at disease progression with a higher incidence in comparison with that of AML and Ph-negative ALL patients. In univariate analysis, only complex karyotype at treatment initiation was extracted as a significant predisposing factor for ACA acquisition at disease progression (100% vs. 47.6%, respectively; p = 0.002). Among 14 patients (nine and five in patients with and without ACA acquisition, respectively) received chemotherapy after disease progression, only two (14.3%) achieved CR (one and one, respectively). Although the OS rates after disease progression were not significantly different between patients with and without ACA acquisition (19.3% vs. 32.0% at one year, respectively; p = 0.256), in multivariate analysis, only ACA acquisition was identified as a negative prognostic factor of OS after disease progression (hazard ratio: 3.21, p = 0.043). Conclusion: These findings suggested that ACA acquisition at disease progression is frequently observed in high-risk MDS patients treated with azacitidine, especially in those harboring complex karyotype, and is associated with poor prognosis even after azacitidine failure, just like AML and Ph-negative ALL. As clinical impacts of ACA acquisition are common among multiple hematologic malignancies, to clarify the biological basis of ACA acquisition might contribute to the development of novel therapeutic strategies. Disclosures Handa: Ono: Research Funding.

scholarly journals Quantitative Integrative Prediction of Survival Probability in Multiple Myeloma Using Molecular and Clinical Prognostic Factors in 657 Patients Treated with Bortezomib-Based Induction, High-Dose Therapy and Autologous Stem Cell Transplantation

Blood ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 132 (Supplement 1) ◽  
pp. 403-403
Author(s):  
Manuela Hummel ◽  
Thomas Hielscher ◽  
Hans Jürgen Salwender ◽  
Christof Scheid ◽  
Hans Martin ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Multiple Myeloma ◽  
Prognostic Factors ◽  
Survival Probability ◽  
Research Funding ◽  
Prognostic Model ◽  
High Dose ◽  
High Dose Therapy ◽  
Continuous Scale ◽  
Prediction Of Survival

Abstract Background Survival in multiple myeloma ranges from months to decades and the majority of patients remain incurable with current treatment approaches. Given this high variability, it would be clinically very useful to quantitatively predict survival on a continuous scale. Current risk prediction models attribute patients to 2-3 groups, i.e. high, intermediate, and low risk. Group size and survival rates largely vary between different systems. Rarely, molecular prognostic factors beyond iFISH are used. Widely accepted standard is the revised ISS score (rISS) including serum B2M, albumin, and adverse prognostic aberrations. Aim of our study was to develop quantitative prediction of individual myeloma patient's three and five year survival probability. We integrate prognostic factors into a comprehensive model, and evaluate its risk discrimination capabilities in relation to rISS. Patients and methods Symptomatic myeloma patients treated up-front with bortezomib-based induction regimen (PAD/PAd/VCD) and intention to undergo high-dose therapy and autologous stem cell transplantation with available GEP and iFISH-data (n=657) were split into training (TG, n=536) and validation group (VG, n=121). In TG and VG, 190 and 22 deaths were observed. Median f/u time was 5.4 and 3.5 years. Distribution of risk factors and 3-year overall survival (OS) were similar in both groups (80% vs 86%). Primary endpoint was OS. The following risk factors were considered for building the prognostic model: age (in years), ISS stage, elevated LDH level (>ULN), creatinine level >2 g/dL, heavy chain type IgA yes/no, del17p13 yes/no, t(4;14) yes/no, +1q21 no/3 copies/>3 copies, GEP-based GEP70-score and proliferation index (GPI). GEP-scores were analyzed as continuous variables. Due to low frequency, t(14;16) was excluded. A multivariable Cox regression model was fitted to estimate the individual prognostic index (PI). A non-stringent backward variable selection procedure with significance level for staying in the model of p=0.5 was applied to remove only surely non-informative predictors. Model selection, calibration, and validation were performed with the rms R package [Harrell 2017]. Harrell's c-index was used to assess the discrimination performance, and to compare the proposed prognostic model to the rISS [Kang 2015]. Results Quantitative Integrative Prediction of Survival Probability. The final Cox model was used to build a nomogram for estimating survival probabilities (Fig. 1). Points are attributed to each of the remaining prognostic factors and summed up. Total points translate into estimated 3-/5-year OS probabilities on a continuous scale. Example is given for an actual patient; 170 total points correspond to a 3-/5-year OS probability of 51/26%, and the contribution of each of the risk factors represented by different colors is visualized (Fig. 1). Of course, the continuous scale can also be used to group patients in low/intermediate/high risk; e.g. a sum of <123/123-171/>171 and <94/94-142/>142 points correspond to 3-/5-year OS probabilities of >80/50-80/<50% respectively. Validation and comparison to rISS. The nomogram was validated (VG) regarding discrimination and calibration [Royston 2013]. Discrimination signifies the ability of the model to distinguish patients with poor and good prognosis. The model showed equally good discrimination in TG (c-index 0.76) and VG (0.75). The time-dependent AUC at 3-years was 0.74 in the VG. In comparison, the c-index for rISS was 0.65 in TG and 0.56 in VG, i.e. significantly lower (P<.001). The AUC of rISS was 0.57 in the VG. The PI was highly significant in the VG (P<.001) and its regression coefficient was 1.04, very close to the optimal value of 1, indicating no obvious bias or overfitting. Calibration, reflecting accuracy of the estimated survival times, was assessed by smoothed calibration plots of expected versus observed survival probabilities on VG and TG (bootstrap). Resampling based evaluation (TG) showed very good calibration, with tendency of too pessimistic predictions for high-risk patients in the VG as the more recent patient cohort. Conclusion We developed and validated individual quantitative nomogram-based prediction of survival which could be used in clinical routine. Here, integration of molecular prognostic factors (GEP-based risk scores and proliferation) gives significantly superior prediction of survival compared to rISS. Disclosures Salwender: Celgene: Honoraria, Other: travel suppport, Research Funding; Amgen: Honoraria, Other: travel suppport, Research Funding; Takeda: Honoraria; Novartis: Honoraria, Other: travel suppport, Research Funding; Bristol-Myers Squibb: Honoraria, Other: travel suppport, Research Funding; Janssen: Honoraria, Other: travel support, Research Funding. Scheid:Janssen: Honoraria; Celgene: Honoraria. Goldschmidt:ArtTempi: Honoraria; Chugai: Honoraria, Research Funding; Novartis: Honoraria, Research Funding; Takeda: Consultancy, Research Funding; Amgen: Consultancy, Research Funding; Mundipharma: Research Funding; Sanofi: Consultancy, Research Funding; Janssen: Consultancy, Honoraria, Research Funding; Celgene: Consultancy, Honoraria, Research Funding; Bristol Myers Squibb: Consultancy, Honoraria, Research Funding; Adaptive Biotechnology: Consultancy. Seckinger:Celgene: Research Funding; EngMab: Research Funding; Sanofi: Research Funding. Hose:EngMab: Research Funding; Celgene: Honoraria, Research Funding; Sanofi: Research Funding.

scholarly journals The Relative Risk of Prognostic Factors of Age Stratified Multiple Myeloma

Blood ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 136 (Supplement 1) ◽  
pp. 26-27
Author(s):  
Chenxing Du ◽  
Yi Wang ◽  
Xue-Han Mao ◽  
Yuting Yan ◽  
Jiahui Liu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Multiple Myeloma ◽  
High Risk ◽  
Prognostic Factor ◽  
Elderly Patients ◽  
Performance Status ◽  
Induction Treatment ◽  
Age Group ◽  
Ecog Performance Status ◽  
Old Patients ◽  
Cytogenetic Abnormalities

Background: Age is a pivotal prognostic factor for multiple myeloma (MM). The risk of evolving from MGUS and SMM to symptomatic MM steadily increases with age. And there are nuances in clinical manifestations and cytogenetic characteristics between young and old patients. The aim of this study is to delineate the clinical and laboratory features and determine the relative contribution of ISS, performance status and cytogenetic abnormalities in each age MM patients. Methods: In this study, 778 MM patients were enrolled in the prospective, non-randomized BDH2008/02 clinical trial between January, 2008 and December, 2016. Briefly, the patients accepted bortezomib or thalidomide-based induction therapy. Transplantation eligible patients accepted ASCT, otherwise they accepted the original regimen consolidation therapy. Subsequently, unless intolerance, patients received either thalidomide-based or lenalidomide-based maintenance therapy for two years. Conventional FISH panel included del(13q), del(17p), gain(1q), t(11;14), t(4;14), t(14;16), and t(14;20). The positive cut-off value for chromosome deletion or gain was 20%, and for chromosome translocation was 10%. A multivariate Cox proportional-hazards model was developed to assess the variables with significant effects on PFS and OS. Explained variation of variables was quantified by RD2. Statistical analysis was conducted by Stata/MP 16.0 (Stata Corp., TX, USA) and SPSS 26.0 (IBM Corp., Chicago, Illinois, USA). Results: Among 778 patients with complete data, 59.5% (463/778) were younger than 60 years old, 31.4% (244/778) were 61-70 years old, and only 9.1% (71/778) were over 71 years old. The median PFS of patients≤60, 61-70 and ≥71 years of age was 36.3, 32.6 and 23.1 months, respectively (P&lt;0.001). The median OS in each age group was 86.2, 60.7 and 34.9 months, respectively (P&lt;0.001) (Figure A-D). The median evaluated glomerular filtration rate of the three groups was 89.1, 74.0 and 66.4 ml/min (P&lt;0.001), respectively. The serum β2-microglobulin level gradually increased with age (P&lt;0.001), along with the proportion of patients with ISS 3 stage. Patients ≥71 years old had a higher proportion of ECOG performance status score 3-4, twice than that of patients ≤60 years old. The incidence of high-risk IgH translocation decreased with age, and was 25.4%, 21.3% and 14.3% across age groups. The incidence of gain(1q) increased with age, and was 43.9%, 47.1% and 54.8%, respectively. The incidence of del(17p) and del(13q) seldom changed with age (Figure E). With age, the risk of high-risk cytogenetic abnormalities did not change significantly, accounting for about 50% in each age group. The risk of ISS gradually decreased, accounting for 36%, 27%, and 14% in ≤60, 61-70 and ≥71 year subgroups, respectively. The risk of the ECOG performance status gradually increased with age, accounting for 10%, 17%, and 36% in the three subgroups (Figure F). The overall response rate of induction treatment gradually decreased with age, and were 90.2%, 81.9%, and 69.2%, respectively (P&lt;0.001). Elderly patients with impaired renal function or more than one high-risk cytogenetic abnormalities might benefit more from bortezomib based treatment than younger patients (Figure G). Conclusion: Age is an important prognostic factor in MM. With age, the risk of MM progression or death steadily grows. Cytogenetic abnormalities are equally important in every age group. The risk of poor performance status increases in elderly patients with a reduction risk in ISS. Elderly patients should focus on the status of frailty and molecular events to determine treatment. Figure Disclosures No relevant conflicts of interest to declare.

scholarly journals The Study of Thrombosis in Polycythemia Vera

Blood ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 138 (Supplement 1) ◽  
pp. 4614-4614
Author(s):  
Yuhui Zhang ◽  
Chao Gao ◽  
Naibo Hu ◽  
Guangshuai Teng ◽  
Chenxiao Du ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Multivariate Analysis ◽  
High Risk ◽  
Arterial Thrombosis ◽  
Myeloid Leukemia ◽  
Prognostic Model ◽  
Risk Group ◽  
High Risk Group ◽  
Intermediate Risk ◽  
Free Survival

Abstract Objective In order to understand the clinical characteristics, disease progression and survival of polycythemia vera (PV) patients, explore the risk factors affecting thrombosis in PV patients, and establish a new prognostic integral model that is consistent with the characteristics of thrombosis in PV patients in China. Methods The clinical features, laboratory features, thrombosis, myelofibrosis transformation, leukemia transformation and survival of 975 patients with PV were studied retrospectively. By comparing the expected survival of a healthy Chinese population with age-sex matching, using the mortality rate of healthy Chinese as a reference, we calculated the standardized mortality ratio (SMR). The qualitative data were compared by the chi-square test or Fisher's test. ROC curve was used to determine the cutoff value of continuous variables, and Mann-Whitney U test and Kruskal-Wallis test were used for grouping comparison. The Kaplan-Meier method was used for survival analysis. Multivariate analysis was performed using the Cox regression model to analyze the risk factors of thrombosis and survival in patients with PV, and to establish a prognostic model for patients with PV. Results Results showed that among the 975 PV patients, 98.8% patients with JAK2 V617F mutation, 115 patients (11.8%) died, 202 patients (20.7%) developed secondary myelofibrosis, and 22 patients (2.3%) converted to acute myeloid leukemia. The median follow-up time of 975 patients with PV was 8(1 to 38) years in which the incidence of thrombosis was 5.4/100(95%CI[5.31/100,6.09/100]),the incidence of myelofibrosis transformation was 2.91(95%CI[1.45/100，5.15/100]), and the incidence of acute myeloid leukemia transformation was 0.28/100(95%CI[0.07/100,0.43/100]). A total of 339 patients (34.8%) had thrombosis, among which 93.2% (316/339) had arterial thrombosis and 20.1% (68/339) had venous thrombosis. Multivariate analysis shows that: Age ≥60 years old (P&lt;0.0001, HR=3.824, 95%CI[1.930, 7.579]),DTA mutation (P=0.031, HR=1.953),95%CI[1.062，3.592 ])are risk factors for thrombosis in PV patients. According to the results of multivariate analysis, the risk model of PV thrombosis system (PTPSS) was established. In the low-risk group (0 points), the intermediate -risk group (1 points) and the high-risk group (≥2 points), the incidence of thrombosis in the high-risk group was 77.3%, 38.8% and 29.8%, respectively.The results of thrombosis survival analysis showed that: high-risk group patients (n=44;The median thrombosis-free survival was 6 years,95%CI[1.413; 10.587]), patients in the intermediate-risk group (n=304;The median thrombosis-free survival was 18 years.95%CI[10.971; 25.029]), patients in the low-risk group (n=627; The median thrombosis-free survival was 22 years.95%CI[16.797; 27.203]). Conclusions Thrombosis is one of the most common disease progression in PV patients, and the incidence of arterial thrombosis is significantly higher than that of venous thrombosis. Even after treatment, the incidence of thrombosis is still high. PTPSS can effectively predict thrombosis in PV patients, and is a more reasonable prognostic model for guiding the prevention and treatment of PV thrombosis. We will further explore the relationship between monocytes and inflammatory factors and thrombosis in patients with PV. Figure 1 Figure 1. Disclosures No relevant conflicts of interest to declare.

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