scholarly journals A hierarchical procedure to select intrauterine and extrauterine factors for methodological validation of preterm birth risk estimation

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Pasquale Anthony Della Rosa ◽  
Cesare Miglioli ◽  
Martina Caglioni ◽  
Francesca Tiberio ◽  
Kelsey H.H. Mosser ◽  
...  

Abstract Background Etiopathogenesis of preterm birth (PTB) is multifactorial, with a universe of risk factors interplaying between the mother and the environment. It is of utmost importance to identify the most informative factors in order to estimate the degree of PTB risk and trace an individualized profile. The aims of the present study were: 1) to identify all acknowledged risk factors for PTB and to select the most informative ones for defining an accurate model of risk prediction; 2) to verify predictive accuracy of the model and 3) to identify group profiles according to the degree of PTB risk based on the most informative factors. Methods The Maternal Frailty Inventory (MaFra) was created based on a systematic review of the literature including 174 identified intrauterine (IU) and extrauterine (EU) factors. A sample of 111 pregnant women previously categorized in low or high risk for PTB below 37 weeks, according to ACOG guidelines, underwent the MaFra Inventory. First, univariate logistic regression enabled p-value ordering and the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) selected the model including the most informative MaFra factors. Second, random forest classifier verified the overall predictive accuracy of the model. Third, fuzzy c-means clustering assigned group membership based on the most informative MaFra factors. Results The most informative and parsimonious model selected through AIC included Placenta Previa, Pregnancy Induced Hypertension, Antibiotics, Cervix Length, Physical Exercise, Fetal Growth, Maternal Anxiety, Preeclampsia, Antihypertensives. The random forest classifier including only the most informative IU and EU factors achieved an overall accuracy of 81.08% and an AUC of 0.8122. The cluster analysis identified three groups of typical pregnant women, profiled on the basis of the most informative IU and EU risk factors from a lower to a higher degree of PTB risk, which paralleled time of birth delivery. Conclusions This study establishes a generalized methodology for building-up an evidence-based holistic risk assessment for PTB to be used in clinical practice. Relevant and essential factors were selected and were able to provide an accurate estimation of degree of PTB risk based on the most informative constellation of IU and EU factors.

2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (11) ◽  
pp. 2279
Author(s):  
Dvora Kluwgant ◽  
Tamar Wainstock ◽  
Eyal Sheiner ◽  
Gali Pariente

Preterm birth (PTB) is the leading cause of perinatal morbidity and mortality. Adverse effects of preterm birth have a direct correlation with the degree of prematurity, in which infants who are born extremely preterm (24–28 weeks gestation) have the worst outcomes. We sought to determine prominent risk factors for extreme PTB and whether these factors varied between various sub-populations with known risk factors such as previous PTB and multiple gestations. A population-based retrospective cohort study was conducted. Risk factors were examined in cases of extreme PTB in the general population, as well as various sub-groups: singleton and multiple gestations, women with a previous PTB, and women with indicated or induced PTB. A total of 334,415 deliveries were included, of which 1155 (0.35%) were in the extreme PTB group. Placenta previa (OR = 5.8, 95%CI 4.14–8.34, p < 0.001), multiple gestations (OR = 7.7, 95% CI 6.58–9.04, p < 0.001), and placental abruption (OR = 20.6, 95%CI 17.00–24.96, p < 0.001) were the strongest risk factors for extreme PTB. In sub-populations (multiple gestations, women with previous PTB and indicated PTBs), risk factors included placental abruption and previa, lack of prenatal care, and recurrent pregnancy loss. Singleton extreme PTB risk factors included nulliparity, lack of prenatal care, and placental abruption. Placental abruption was the strongest risk factor for extreme preterm birth in all groups, and risk factors did not differ significantly between sub-populations.


2021 ◽  
Vol 80 (Suppl 1) ◽  
pp. 1232.1-1232
Author(s):  
M. Di Battista ◽  
S. Barsotti ◽  
A. Della Rossa ◽  
M. Mosca

Background:Cardiovascular (CV) diseases, namely myocardial infarction and stroke, are not among the most known and frequent complications of systemic sclerosis (SSc), but there is growing evidence that SSc patients have a higher prevalence of CV diseases than the general population [1].Objectives:To compare two algorithms for CV risk estimation in a cohort of patients with SSc, finding any correlation with clinical characteristics of the disease.Methods:SSc patients without previous myocardial infarction or stroke were enrolled. Traditional CV risk factors, SSc-specific characteristics and ongoing therapies were assessed. Framingham and QRISK3 algorithms were then used to estimate the risk of develop a CV disease over the next 10 years.Results:Fifty-six SSc patients were enrolled. Framingham reported a median risk score of 9.6% (IQR 8.5), classifying 24 (42.9%) subjects at high risk, with a two-fold increase of the mean relative risk in comparison to general population. QRISK3 showed a median risk score of 15.8% (IQR 19.4), with 36 (64.3%) patients considered at high-risk. Both algorithms revealed a significant role of some traditional risk factors and a noteworthy potential protective role of endothelin receptor antagonists (p=0.003). QRISK3 was also significantly influenced by some SSc-specific characteristics, as limited cutaneous subset (p=0.01), interstitial lung disease (p=0.04) and non-ischemic heart involvement (p=0.03), with the first two that maintain statistically significance in the multivariate analysis (p=0.02 for both).Conclusion:QRISK3 classifies more SSc patients at high-risk to develop CV diseases than Framingham, and it seems to be influenced by some SSc-specific characteristics. If its predictive accuracy were prospectively verified, the use of QRISK3 as a tool in the early detection of SSc patients at high CV risk should be recommended.References:[1]Ngian GS, Sahhar J, Proudman SM, Stevens W, Wicks IP, Van Doornum S. Prevalence of coronary heart disease and cardiovascular risk factors in a national cross-sectional cohort study of systemic sclerosis. Ann Rheum Dis. 2012;71:1980-3.Disclosure of Interests:None declared


2019 ◽  
Vol 3 (s1) ◽  
pp. 37-38
Author(s):  
Elena HogenEsch ◽  
Lisa Haddad ◽  
Inci Yildirim ◽  
Saad B Omer

OBJECTIVES/SPECIFIC AIMS: The primary objective of this study is to determine the prevalence of maternal GBS colonization and demographic risk factors associated with maternal GBS colonization in Latin America. Secondary objectives include: To determine if there is an association between maternal colonization with GBS and stillbirth or preterm birth in Latin America. To determine the effect of cesarean section (CS) on the incidence of neonatal sepsis with GBS in mothers colonized with GBS. METHODS/STUDY POPULATION: Study Population: Pregnant women who received prenatal care at sites that utilize the Perinatal Information System (SIP) from 1989 through 2015, and were screened for GBS between 35 and 37 weeks of gestation. Maternal exclusion criteria included spontaneous abortion, stillbirth before 35 weeks, and lack of screening for GBS. Methods: Estimated prevalence (and 95% confidence interval) of maternal GBS colonization for the entire data set, by region, and by country. The prevalence data for each country further stratified by maternal age, ethnicity, education, civil status and habitation. Descriptive statistics calculated for each clinical prenatal and clinical perinatal health indicator as well as for each clinical history variable for GBS colonized and non-GBS colonized women. Odds ratios will be calculated for each demographic and clinical risk factor. Fisher’s exact tests will be used to test hypotheses about the relationship between maternal GBS colonization and specific perinatal outcomes such as stillbirth or preterm birth. We will use multiple logistic regression models to test the hypotheses about the relationships between demographic variables, maternal GBS colonization and perinatal outcomes. RESULTS/ANTICIPATED RESULTS: Preliminary results: 712,061 records included in database. 98,852 records with data for GBS screening. o90.6% White, 7.4% Mixed, 0.6% Black, 0.3% Native Indian, 0.1% Other. GBS prevalence among screened women, 17.5% There was a significant association between maternal GBS colonization and ethnicity (X2 (4, N=97006)=569.901, p<0.01) o Prevalence rates by ethnicity: 20.5% Black, 18.4% White, 15.2% Native Indian, 8.8% Mixed, 3.3% Other. There was a significant association between maternal GBS colonization and age (X2 (4, N=98655)=119.901, p<0.01) o Prevalence rates by age group:. Age ≤ 20 - 15.2%. Age 21-34 – 17.8%. Age ≥ 35 – 19.6% Anticipated results:. GBS positive mothers will have an increased burden of stillbirth and preterm birth compared to GBS negative mothers. Neonates born to GBS colonized mothers who deliver via cesarean section will have a decreased incidence of sepsis compared to neonates born to GBS colonized mothers who deliver vaginally DISCUSSION/SIGNIFICANCE OF IMPACT: There have been no comprehensive studies to date that use the CLAP data to characterize the epidemiology of maternal GBS colonization and GBS disease and the burden of neonatal GBS disease in Latin America. Taking advantage of this unique database, this is the first region-wide study using systematically collected data. Our preliminary analysis indicates that GBS colonization status among pregnant women in Latin America is 17.5%, which is greater than previously reported. While there is evidence that maternal carriage of GBS is associated with stillbirth, this will be the first study to quantify the burden of GBS-associated stillbirth in Latin America. Additionally, previous work has been inconclusive in regards to maternal colonization with GBS and its association with preterm birth. This will be the largest study to evaluate the association of maternal GBS carriage with preterm birth. Findings from this study have the potential to inform public health policy and interventions by identifying the prevalence and risk factors.


2018 ◽  
Vol 2018 ◽  
pp. 1-6 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gülen Yerlikaya ◽  
Veronica Falcone ◽  
Tina Stopp ◽  
Martina Mittlböck ◽  
Andrea Tura ◽  
...  

The aim of this study was to assess the association between OGTT glucose levels and requirement of pharmacotherapy in GDM patients classified by the IADPSG criteria. This study included 203 GDM patients (108 managed with lifestyle modification and 95 requiring pharmacotherapy). Clinical risk factors and OGTT glucose concentrations at 0 (G0), 60 (G60), and 120 min (G120) were collected. OGTT glucose levels were significantly associated with the later requirement of pharmacotherapy (ROC-AUC: 71.1, 95% CI: 63.8–78.3). Also, the combination of clinical risk factors (age, BMI, parity, and pharmacotherapy in previous gestation) showed an acceptable predictive accuracy (ROC-AUC: 72.1, 95% CI: 65.0–79.2), which was further improved when glycemic parameters were added (ROC-AUC: 77.5, 95% CI: 71.5–83.9). Random forest analysis revealed the highest variable importance for G0, G60, and age. OGTT glucose measures in addition to clinical risk factors showed promising properties for risk stratification in GDM patients classified by the recently established IADPSG criteria.


2021 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
pp. 36-41
Author(s):  
Ikrama Hassan ◽  
◽  
Surajudeen Bello ◽  
Michael Anazodo ◽  
Abdulmumuni Ahmed Lawal ◽  
...  

Background: Preterm birth has been on the increase globally and accounting for morbidities and mortalities. Preterm delivery referred to the birth of a newborn prior to thirty seven completed gestational weeks. There is dearth of knowledge on the burden of preterm birth in this state. This study therefore determined the burden of preterm deliveries in Nasarawa State, evaluate the risk factors and identify the outcome of such deliveries. Methods: A descriptive cross-sectional study of all preterm delivered from the 1st of January 2014 to the 31st of December 2013 at the Dalhatu Araf Specialist Hospital (DASH) Lafia, General Hospital Akwanga and Medical Centre Mararaba Gurku in the Southern, Northern and Western senatorial zones of Nasarawa State respectively. Data was analyzed using SPSS version 20. Results: The mean age of mothers of preterm in this study is 26.5±5.7 years. More than three-quarter of preterm birth in Nasarawa State were at the DASH Lafia. The prevalence of preterm birth and admissions were 1.5% and 10.8% respectively. One in four of the preterm were either late preterm or extreme preterm. Singleton gestation accounted for 82.1% of the preterm births while 75.6% of such deliveries where through the vaginal mode of deliveries. Risk factors for preterm deliveries were multiple gestation, antepartum haemorrhage (placenta previa), premature rupture of membrane and previous preterm delivery. Deaths among the preterm was 11% in this study. Conclusion: The burden of preterm births in this study is comparable to other centre in same region. Half of the preterm were either late or extreme preterm. Risk factors for preterm deliveries were placenta previa, premature rupture of membrane, multiple gestation and previous preterm child birth. Death was recorded in one out of every nine preterm


2019 ◽  
pp. 143-149

Factores de riesgo asociados al parto pre término en el hospital nacional Guillermo Almenara Irigoyen de enero a junio del 2010. Risk factors associated with preterm delivery in the Guillermo Almenara Irigoyen National Hospital from January to June 2010 Lizbeth Estefanía Díaz Polo Universidad de San Martin de Porres. Lima 12 DOI: https://doi.org/10.33017/RevECIPeru2011.0036/ RESUMEN El parto pre término ocurre entre las 22 y antes de las 37 semanas. Su etiología es multifactorial y es causa principal de morbilidad y mortalidad perinatal. El objetivo fue determinar los factores de riesgo asociados al parto pre término en gestantes del Hospital Nacional Guillermo Almenara Irigoyen de Enero a Junio del 2010. Se realizó un estudio retrospectivo, caso - control y descriptivo. Las historias clínicas de pacientes casos y controles, fueron revisadas y registradas en fichas y se procesaron con el SPSS versión 15. Los resultados fueron 81 pacientes con diagnóstico de parto pre término, con significancia estadística en las siguientes variables: ausencia de atención prenatal (OR 3.07, P>0.05), pre eclampsia (OR 20.86, P>0.001), ruptura prematura de membranas (OR 4.03, P>0.005), embarazo múltiple (OR 5.64, P>0.01), corioamnionitis (OR 2.02, P>0.1), lugar de nacimiento: sierra (OR 3.88, P>0.05) y nivel socioeconómico D-E (OR12.73, P>0.05). Se evidencio que gestantes más pobres y con menor nivel educativo presentan mayor incidencia de parto pre término [1] [2] [3]. Que el 21% de los partos pre término, estuvo asociado a la ruptura prematura de membranas (OR 4.03) dato que se encuentra dentro del rango de incidencia, ya que Aagaard-Tillery [4] (2005) señala una incidencia de la ruptura prematura de membrana pre término entre 30 y 40% y Fabián (2008) observó 11.67% de ruptura prematura de membranas [5]. Las gestantes con pre eclampsia tuvieron un riesgo 20 veces más de presentar parto pre término. El 34.6% con parto pre término presentó pre eclampsia, de ellas el 42.8% fue pre eclampsia severa, 25% leve y 32.14% síndrome de HELLP; dato similar al observado por Salviz en su estudio en el Hospital Cayetano Heredia, donde encontró un 30 % de parto pre término en pacientes con pre eclampsia; si bien es conocido que la pre eclampsia afecta del 3 al 5% de las gestaciones, no existen estudios sobre la incidencia de la pre eclampsia en el parto pre término [6]. Se concluye que el principal factor de riesgo asociado al parto pre término fue la pre eclampsia. Haber nacido en la sierra, pertenecer a nivel socioeconómico D-E, ausencia de atención prenatal, ruptura prematura de membranas, coriomanionitis y embarazo múltiple fueron también significativos. Descriptores: factores de riesgo, parto pre término, parto a término, pre eclampsia. ABSTRACT Preterm birth occurs between 22 and before 37 weeks. Its etiology is multifactorial and is a major cause of perinatal morbidity and mortality. The objective was to determine the risk factors associated with preterm delivery in pregnant women Guillermo Almenara Irigoyen National Hospital from January to June 2010. We performed a retrospective case - control and descriptive. The case histories of patients and controls were reviewed and recorded in chips and processed with SPSS version 15. The results were 81 patients diagnosed with preterm birth, with statistical significance in the following variables: absence of prenatal care (OR 3.07, P> 0.05), pre-eclampsia (OR 20.86, P <0.001), premature rupture of membranes (OR 4.03, P> 0,005), multiple pregnancy (OR 5.64, P> 0.01), chorioamnionitis (OR 2.02, P> 0.1), place of birth: saw (OR 3.88, P> 0.05) and socioeconomic status (OR12.73, P> 0.05). It was evident that more poor pregnant women with less education have a higher incidence of preterm delivery [1] [2] [3]. That 21% of preterm births was associated with premature rupture of membranes (OR 4.03) data that is within the range of incidence, as Aagaard-Tillery [4] (2005) noted an incidence of premature rupture preterm membrane between 30 and 40% and Fabian (2008) observed 11.67% of premature rupture of membranes [5]. Pregnant women with preeclampsia had a 20 times higher risk of preterm birth present. 34.6% presented with preterm birth pre-eclampsia, of which 42.8% was severe preeclampsia, 25% and 32.14% mild HELLP syndrome; data Salviz similar to that observed in their study in the Cayetano Heredia Hospital, where he found a 30 % of preterm birth in patients with preeclampsia, although it is known that pre-eclampsia affects 3 to 5% of pregnancies, no studies on the incidence of preeclampsia in preterm labor [6]. We conclude that the main risk factor associated with preterm delivery was preeclampsia. Being born in the mountains, belong to socioeconomic status, lack of prenatal care, premature rupture of membranes, coriomanionitis and multiple pregnancy were also significant. Keywords: risk factors, preterm delivery, term delivery, pre-eclampsia.


2018 ◽  
Vol 25 ◽  
pp. 59-63
Author(s):  
Mst Rokeya Khatun ◽  
KS Nasrin Lina ◽  
S Gul Nahar

Background: Placenta previa is a localization of placenta in the lower uterine segment, near or over the internal os. Multigravida is one of the risk factors of placenta previa. The aim of study is to look for current frequency of placenta previa in multigravida, so that further improvement in diagnosis and treatment modalities can be made in order to decrease the morbidity & mortality related to it in this group.Objective: To determine the frequency of various grades of placenta previa in multigravida at a tertiary care center.Methodology: This is a cross sectional study conducted from December 2014 to June 2015 at the department of Gynecology and Obstetrics, Rajshahi Medical College Hospital. A total of 208 patients enrolled in the study with non -probability purposive sampling technique. All pregnant women with singleton pregnancy of 25-35 years of age in their second or more pregnancy with gestational age ≥ 34 weeks were included. Exclusion criteria observed for patients with multifetal pregnancy, previous history of cesarean section, dilatation and curettage, cervical cone biopsy, myomectomy or any pelvic surgery. All pregnant women had trans-abdominal ultrasound. The presence or absence of placenta previa was reported by an experienced sonologist. The data was analyzed using SPSS version 12.Results: Among the total recruited patients, mean age of these multigravidas was 30.1±5.6 years. The mean parity of our population was 4.02±1.2. The gestational age noted was 38±1.4 weeks as mean.. The frequency of placenta previa was 13 (6.3%) and type IV was the most common type.Conclusion: It is concluded from this study that the frequency of placenta previa in patients of multigravida was 6.3% and apart from other risk factors, multigravidity is an independent risk factor for placenta previa.TAJ 2012; 25: 59-63


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marco Di Battista ◽  
Simone Barsotti ◽  
Alessandra Della Rossa ◽  
Marta Mosca

ABSTRACT Objectives To compare two algorithms for cardiovascular (CV) risk estimation in systemic sclerosis (SSc) patients, investigating correlations with disease characteristics. Methods Traditional CV risk factors and SSc-specific characteristics were assessed in a cohort of SSc patients. Framingham and QRISK3 algorithms were used to estimate the risk of developing a CV disease over the next 10 years. Results Seventy-two SSc patients were enrolled. Among those 56 without previous CV events, Framingham reported a median risk score of 9.6%, classifying 24 (42.9%) subjects at high risk. QRISK3 showed a median risk score of 15.8%, with 36 (64.3%) patients considered at high risk. Both algorithms revealed a significant role of some traditional risk factors and a noteworthy potential protective role of endothelin receptor antagonists (p = .003). QRISK3 was also significantly influenced by some SSc-specific characteristics, such as limited cutaneous subset (p = .01), interstitial lung disease (p = .04), and non-ischemic heart involvement (p = .03), with the first two maintaining statistical significance in the multivariate analysis (p = .02). Conclusions QRISK3 classifies more SSc patients at high risk to develop CV diseases than Framingham, reflecting the influence of some SSc-specific characteristics. If its predictive accuracy were prospectively verified, the use of QRISK3 as a tool in the early detection of SSc patients at high CV risk should be recommended.


2021 ◽  
Vol 19 (2) ◽  
pp. 172-177
Author(s):  
Iv. Todorov ◽  
N. Tododrov ◽  
M. Angelova ◽  
K. Peeva

Introduction: Children born prematurely are at higher risk of mortality, morbidity, and impaired motor and cognitive development in childhood than prematurely born babies. Aim: To establish the relationship between the corresponding levels of pregnancy-related plasma protein-A (PAPP-A) and the frequency of premature birth. Materials and methods: The study is prospective. The data was collected through monitoring patients through a questionnaire and sonographic examination at 11-13 gestational weeks. The study excluded all known risk factors for preterm birth, such as previous preterm births, pregnant women with gestational diabetes, preeclampsia, hypertension, placenta previa, hydramnion, multiple pregnancies, smoking, structural and chromosomal abnormalities of the fetus and planned preterm birth. The data from the measured values of PAPP-A and the frequency of premature birth in 636 pregnant women were analyzed. Conclusions: PAPP-A levels are a statistically significant factor for preterm birth. It is expected with a 95% probability in the population with PAPP-A values below 0,515 that the cases with premature birth will be from 7 to 14 times more. Pregnant women with PAPP-A level less than 10th per cent are significantly associated with an increased risk of preterm birth.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jian Li ◽  
Jinhua Shen ◽  
Xiaoli Zhang ◽  
Yangqin Peng ◽  
Qin Zhang ◽  
...  

Abstract In vitro fertilization/intracytoplasmic sperm injection (IVF/ICSI).is associated with an increased risk of preterm (33rd - 37th gestational week), and early preterm birth (20th - 32nd gestational week). The underlying general and procedure related risk factors are not well understood so far. 4,328 infertile women undergoing IVF/ICSI were entered into this study. The study population was divided into three groups: a) early preterm birth group (n=66), b) preterm birth group (n=675 ) and c) full-term birth group (n=3653). Odds for preterm birth were calculated by stepwise multivariate logistic regression analysis. We identified seven independent risk factors for preterm birth and four independent risk factors for early preterm birth. Older (>39) or younger (<25) maternal age (OR:1.504, 95%CI: 1.108-2.042,P=0.009; OR: 2.125, 95%CI: 1.049-4.304,P=0.036, respectively), multiple pregnancy (OR: 9.780, 95%CI: 8.014-11.935,P<0.001; OR: 8.588, 95%CI: 4.866-15.157,P<0.001, respectively), placenta previa (OR: 14.954, 95%CI: 8.053-27.767,P<0.001; OR: 16.479, 95%CI: 4.381-61.976,P<0.001, respectively), and embryo reduction (OR: 3.547, 95%CI: 1.736-7.249,P=0.001; OR: 7.145, 95%CI: 1.990-25.663,P=0.003, respectively) were associated with preterm birth and early preterm birth, whereas gestational hypertension (OR: 2.494, 95%CI: 1.770-3.514,P<0.001), elevated triglycerides (OR: 1.120, 95%CI: 1.011-1.240,P=0.030) and shorter activated partial thromboplastin time (OR: 0.967, 95%CI: 0.949-0.985,P<0.001) were associated only with preterm birth. In conclusion, preterm and early preterm birth risk factors in patients undergoing assisted IVF/ICSI are in general similar to those in natural pregnancy. The lack of some associations in the early preterm group was most likely due to the lower number of early preterm birth cases. Only embryo reduction represents an IVF/ICSI specific risk factor.


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