scholarly journals Projected local rain events due to climate change and the impacts on waterborne diseases in Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada

2019 ◽  
Vol 18 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Bimal K. Chhetri ◽  
Eleni Galanis ◽  
Stephen Sobie ◽  
Jordan Brubacher ◽  
Robert Balshaw ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Extreme Precipitation ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Historical Period ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Observation Data ◽  
Waterborne Diseases ◽  
Extreme Precipitation Events ◽  
Extreme Rain

Abstract Background Climate change is increasing the number and intensity of extreme weather events in many parts of the world. Precipitation extremes have been linked to both outbreaks and sporadic cases of waterborne illness. We have previously shown a link between heavy rain and turbidity to population-level risk of sporadic cryptosporidiosis and giardiasis in a major Canadian urban population. The risk increased with 30 or more dry days in the 60 days preceding the week of extreme rain. The goal of this study was to investigate the change in cryptosporidiosis and giardiasis risk due to climate change, primarily change in extreme precipitation. Methods Cases of cryptosporidiosis and giardiasis were extracted from a reportable disease system (1997–2009). We used distributed lag non-linear Poisson regression models and projections of the exposure-outcome relationship to estimate future illness (2020–2099). The climate projections are derived from twelve statistically downscaled regional climate models. Relative Concentration Pathway 8.5 was used to project precipitation derived from daily gridded weather observation data (~ 6 × 10 km resolution) covering the central of three adjacent watersheds serving metropolitan Vancouver for the 2020s, 2040s, 2060s and 2080s. Results Precipitation is predicted to steadily increase in these watersheds during the wet season (Oct. -Mar.) and decrease in other parts of the year up through the 2080s. More weeks with extreme rain (>90th percentile) are expected. These weeks are predicted to increase the annual rates of cryptosporidiosis and giardiasis by approximately 16% by the 2080s corresponding to an increase of 55–136 additional cases per year depending upon the climate model used. The predicted increase in the number of waterborne illness cases are during the wet months. The range in future projections compared to historical monthly case counts typically differed by 10–20% across climate models but the direction of change was consistent for all models. Discussion If new water filtration measures had not been implemented in our study area in 2010–2015, the risk of cryptosporidiosis and giardiasis would have been expected to increase with climate change, particularly precipitation changes. In addition to the predicted increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events, the frequency and length of wet and dry spells could also affect the risk of waterborne diseases as we observed in the historical period. These findings add to the growing evidence regarding the need to prepare water systems to manage and become resilient to climate change-related health risks.

scholarly journals Evaluation of uncertainties in mean and extreme precipitation under climate change for northwestern Mediterranean watersheds from high-resolution Med and Euro-CORDEX ensembles

2018 ◽  
Vol 22 (1) ◽  
pp. 673-687 ◽  
Author(s):  
Antoine Colmet-Daage ◽  
Emilia Sanchez-Gomez ◽  
Sophie Ricci ◽  
Cécile Llovel ◽  
Valérie Borrell Estupina ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
High Resolution ◽  
Extreme Precipitation ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Regional Climate Models ◽  
Historical Period ◽  
Mountainous Regions ◽  
Extreme Precipitation Events ◽  
Precipitation Events

Abstract. The climate change impact on mean and extreme precipitation events in the northern Mediterranean region is assessed using high-resolution EuroCORDEX and MedCORDEX simulations. The focus is made on three regions, Lez and Aude located in France, and Muga located in northeastern Spain, and eight pairs of global and regional climate models are analyzed with respect to the SAFRAN product. First the model skills are evaluated in terms of bias for the precipitation annual cycle over historical period. Then future changes in extreme precipitation, under two emission scenarios, are estimated through the computation of past/future change coefficients of quantile-ranked model precipitation outputs. Over the 1981–2010 period, the cumulative precipitation is overestimated for most models over the mountainous regions and underestimated over the coastal regions in autumn and higher-order quantile. The ensemble mean and the spread for future period remain unchanged under RCP4.5 scenario and decrease under RCP8.5 scenario. Extreme precipitation events are intensified over the three catchments with a smaller ensemble spread under RCP8.5 revealing more evident changes, especially in the later part of the 21st century.

scholarly journals Future precipitation changes over the eastern Adriatic and Dinaric Alps areas in the latest EURO-CORDEX ensemble

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sarah Ivušić ◽  
Ivan Güttler ◽  
Kristian Horvath
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Greenhouse Gases ◽  
Extreme Precipitation ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Signal ◽  
Historical Period ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Intensity Increase ◽  
Total Precipitation

<p>The topographically complex coastal-mountainous region of the eastern Adriatic and Dinaric Alps is one of the rainiest areas in the Mediterranean and particularly vulnerable to climate change. The aim is to estimate the future climate change of precipitation over this region over which research on this subject is still limited. We use the climate projections from the latest EURO-CORDEX ensemble at 0.11° resolution. The ensemble is comprised of 14 regional climate models (RCMs) driven by eight CMIP5 global climate models (GCMs), a total of 68 members. The climate change signal is examined for the far future period (2071-2100) with respect to the historical period (1971-2000) for one greenhouse gases concentration scenario, particularly for RCP8.5. Total precipitation shows a considerable reduction in summer months, while in winter it is projected to increase in the northern part of the region and to decrease in southern parts, displaying the known south-north gradients. Accordingly, the number of rainy days is projected to decrease by the end of the century, especially during summer over the entire region and in winter over the southern parts. However, the precipitation intensity increase can be expected by the end of the century, especially during the winter months, while in the summer there is no clear consensus between different models. Also, an increase in extreme precipitation is projected during the winter months, while during summer months a similar south-north gradient is shown as for total precipitation. A more detailed analysis for multiple future periods and greenhouse gases concentration scenarios, with an emphasis on extreme precipitation, is planned.</p>

scholarly journals Discussing the role of tropical and subtropical moisture sources in extreme precipitation events in the Mediterranean region from a climate change perspective

2015 ◽  
Vol 3 (6) ◽  
pp. 3983-4005 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. O. Krichak ◽  
S. B. Feldstein ◽  
P. Alpert ◽  
S. Gualdi ◽  
E. Scoccimarro ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Extreme Precipitation ◽  
Mediterranean Region ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Recent Past ◽  
Atmospheric Rivers ◽  
Extreme Precipitation Events ◽  
The Mediterranean ◽  
Precipitation Events

Abstract. Extreme precipitation events in the Mediterranean region during the cool season are strongly affected by the export of moist air from tropical and subtropical areas into the extratropics. The aim of this paper is to present a discussion of the major research efforts on this subject and to formulate a summary of our understanding of this phenomenon, along with its recent past trends from a climate change perspective. The issues addressed are: a discussion of several case studies; the origin of the air moisture and the important role of atmospheric rivers for fueling the events; the mechanism responsible for the intensity of precipitation during the events, and the possible role of global warming in recent past trends in extreme weather events over the Mediterranean region.

scholarly journals Simulating Canadian Arctic Climate at Convection-Permitting Resolution

Atmosphere ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (8) ◽  
pp. 430 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gulilat Tefera Diro ◽  
Laxmi Sushama
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Extreme Precipitation ◽  
Canadian Arctic ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Limited Area ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Model Resolution ◽  
Medium Range Weather Forecast ◽  
Extreme Precipitation Events ◽  
Resolution Simulation

Inadequate representation and parameterization of sub-grid scale features and processes are one of the main sources for uncertainties in regional climate change projections, particularly for the Arctic regions where the climate change signal is amplified. Increasing model resolution to a couple of kilometers will be helpful in resolving some of these challenges, for example to better simulate convection and refined land heterogeneity and thus land–atmosphere interactions. A set of multi-year simulations has been carried out for the Canadian Arctic domain at 12 km and 3 km resolutions using limited-area version of the global environmental multi-scale (GEM) model. The model is integrated for five years driven by the fifth generation of the European Centre for medium-range weather forecast reanalysis (ERA-5) at the lateral boundaries. The aim of this study is to investigate the role of horizontal model resolution on the simulated surface climate variables. Results indicate that although some aspects of the seasonal mean values are deteriorated at times, substantial improvements are noted in the higher resolution simulation. The representation of extreme precipitation events during summer and the simulation of winter temperature are better captured in the convection-permitting simulation. Moreover, the observed temperature–extreme precipitation scaling is realistically reproduced by the higher resolution simulation. These results advocate for the use of convective-permitting resolution models for simulating future climate projections over the Arctic to support climate impact assessment studies such as those related to engineering applications and where high spatial and temporal resolution are beneficial.

Pavement Risk Assessment for Future Extreme Precipitation Events under Climate Change

2018 ◽  
Vol 2672 (40) ◽  
pp. 122-131 ◽  
Author(s):  
Donghui Lu ◽  
Susan L. Tighe ◽  
Wei-Chau Xie
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Extreme Precipitation ◽  
Full Range ◽  
Evaluation Methodology ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Extreme Precipitation Events ◽  
Asset Value ◽  
Value Loss ◽  
Precipitation Events

Pavement infrastructure is experiencing unanticipated climate conditions caused by global warming. Extreme weather events, such as extreme precipitations, are increasing in intensity and frequency, creating rising concern in pavement vulnerability and resilience analysis. Previous design approaches based on historical climate data may no longer be adequate for addressing future conditions. To promote pavement resilience under climate change, assessing pavement risk for extreme events is essential for prioritizing vulnerable infrastructure and developing adaptation strategies. The objective of this study is to develop a quantitative evaluation methodology for assessing pavement risk from extreme precipitations under climate change. Hazard analysis, fragility modeling, and cost estimation are the three major components for risk evaluation. An ensemble of 24 global climate models is used for predicting future extreme precipitations under various climate-forcing scenarios. The Mechanistic-Empirical Pavement Design Guide is employed to simulate performance change for performing fragility modeling. Risk assessment models considering a full range of hazards were used to quantify risk of asset value loss over specified analysis periods. Results indicate that future extreme precipitation events are expected to cause an increased medium risk of asset value loss. However, high uncertainties are involved in the estimation owing to variations in predicted climates. Major pavement damages do not necessarily equate with highest risk because the probability of occurrence of major damage is relatively lower. The proposed approach provides a practical tool for analyzing the interaction among extreme precipitation levels, pavement designs, damage states, occurrence probability, and asset value at risk.

Evaluation of climate change risks faced by the mining industry in Chile: spatiotemporal analysis of extreme precipitation for 2035-2065

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gabriel Perez ◽  
Liliana Pagliero ◽  
Neil McIntyre ◽  
Douglas Aitken ◽  
Diego Rivera
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Extreme Precipitation ◽  
Mining Industry ◽  
Spatiotemporal Analysis ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Present Climate ◽  
Mining Operations ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Extreme Precipitation Events ◽  
Climate Change Risks

<p>Climate change poses significant challenges for many industrial activities around the world, including mining. Changes in precipitation patterns and the increasing frequency of extreme weather events can trigger severe droughts or flash floods that can easily disrupt the minerals value-chain and increase environmental pollution risks. This research focuses on evaluating climate change risks faced by the mining industry in Chile during the period 2035-2065 under the assumptions of the RCP 8.5 scenario (business as usual).  This research presents risk maps, at the national scale, based on different databases that describe the location and characteristics of the mining infrastructure and spatiotemporal analysis of daily precipitation changes between present climate conditions and future predictions. The present climate conditions are depicted by historical observations for the period 1980-2010 while the future predictions are represented by an ensemble of 34 downscaled Global Circulation Models (GCMs) from the CMIP5.  On one hand, the results show that mining operations located in northern and central Chile (Atacama, Coquimbo and Valparaiso regions), will face significant flash flood risks due to the predicted increase of extreme precipitation events for 2035-2065. On the other hand, the results suggest that mining operations located in the regions of Coquimbo, Valparaiso, Biobio, Libertador G.B.O, and Metropolitan area of Santiago are those under the most significant risks due to droughts. The results obtained in this research are part of a more comprehensive project titled “Climate Risk Atlas of Chile”, developed by the Center for Climate and Resilience Research (CR2) and the Center for Global Change of Universidad Católica de Chile (https://arclim.mma.gob.cl/), which analyses the risks of climate change for different industries of the Chilean economy.</p>

Projecting the effect of climate-change-induced increases in extreme rainfall on residential property damages

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jacob Pastor ◽  
Ilan Noy ◽  
Isabelle Sin ◽  
Abha Sood ◽  
David Fleming-Munoz ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climatic Change ◽  
Extreme Precipitation ◽  
Empirical Relationship ◽  
Climate Change Signal ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
The Public ◽  
Extreme Precipitation Events ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Precipitation Events

<p class="western" lang="en-NZ"><span lang="en-US">New Zealand’s public insurer, the Earthquake Commission (EQC), provides residential insurance for some weather-related damage. Climate change and the expected increase in intensity and frequency of weather-related events are likely to translate into higher damages and thus an additional financial liability for the EQC. We project future insured damages from extreme precipitation events associated with future projected climatic change. We first estimate the empirical relationship between extreme precipitation events and the EQC’s weather-related insurance claims based on a complete dataset of all claims from 2000 to 2017. We then use this estimated relationship, together with climate projections based on future GHG concentration scenarios from six different dynamically downscaled Regional Climate Models, to predict the impact of future extreme precipitation events on EQC liabilities for different time horizons up to the year 2100. Our results show predicted adverse impacts vary over time and space. The percent change between projected and past damages—the climate change signal—ranges between an increase of 7% and 26% by the end of the century. We also give detailed caveats as to why these quantities might be mis-estimated. The projected increase in the public insurer’s liabilities could also be used to inform private insurers, regulators, and policymakers who are assessing the future performance of both the public and private insurers that cover weather-related risks in the face of climatic change.</span></p>

scholarly journals Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on Extreme Precipitation Events: Applications of CMIP5 Climate Projections Statistically Downscaled over South Korea

2018 ◽  
Vol 2018 ◽  
pp. 1-12 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jang Hyun Sung ◽  
Hyung-Il Eum ◽  
Junehyeong Park ◽  
Jaepil Cho
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
South Korea ◽  
Extreme Precipitation ◽  
Daily Precipitation ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Reference Period ◽  
Design Standard ◽  
Extreme Precipitation Events ◽  
The Future ◽  
Precipitation Events

Climate change may accelerate the water cycle at a global scale, resulting in more frequent extreme climate events. This study analyzed changes in extreme precipitation events employing climate projections statistically downscaled at a station-space scale in South Korea. Among the CMIP5 climate projections, based on spatial resolution, this study selected 26 climate projections that provide daily precipitation under the representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5. The results show that a 20-year return period of precipitation event during a reference period (1980∼2005) corresponds to a 16.6 yr for 2011 to 2040, 14.1 yr for 2041 to 2070, and 12.8 yr for 2071 to 2100, indicating more frequent extreme maximum daily precipitation may occur in the future. In addition, we found that the probability density functions of the future periods are located out of the 10% confidence interval of the PDF for the reference period. The result indicates that the design standard under the reference climate is not managed to cope with climate change, and accordingly the revision of the design standard is required to improve sustainability in infrastructures.

scholarly journals Changes in Intense Precipitation over the Central United States

2012 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 47-66 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pavel Ya. Groisman ◽  
Richard W. Knight ◽  
Thomas R. Karl
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Extreme Precipitation ◽  
Heavy Precipitation ◽  
The Past ◽  
Extreme Precipitation Events ◽  
Intense Precipitation ◽  
Central United States ◽  
Extreme Rain ◽  
Rain Events ◽  
Precipitation Events

Abstract In examining intense precipitation over the central United States, the authors consider only days with precipitation when the daily total is above 12.7 mm and focus only on these days and multiday events constructed from such consecutive precipitation days. Analyses show that over the central United States, a statistically significant redistribution in the spectra of intense precipitation days/events during the past decades has occurred. Moderately heavy precipitation events (within a 12.7–25.4 mm day−1 range) became less frequent compared to days and events with precipitation totals above 25.4 mm. During the past 31 yr (compared to the 1948–78 period), significant increases occurred in the frequency of “very heavy” (the daily rain events above 76.2 mm) and extreme precipitation events (defined as daily and multiday rain events with totals above 154.9 mm or 6 in.), with up to 40% increases in the frequency of days and multiday extreme rain events. Tropical cyclones associated with extreme precipitation do not significantly contribute to the changes reported in this study. With time, the internal precipitation structure (e.g., mean and maximum hourly precipitation rates within each preselected range of daily or multiday event totals) did not noticeably change. Several possible causes of observed changes in intense precipitation over the central United States are discussed and/or tested.

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