Association between firearms and mortality in Brazil, 1990 to 2017: a global burden of disease Brazil study

Abstract Background Brazil leads the world in number of firearm deaths and ranks sixth by country in rate of firearm deaths per 100,000 people. This study aims to analyze trends in and burden of mortality by firearms, according to age and sex, for Brazil, and the association between these deaths and indicators of possession and carrying of weapons using data from the global burden of diseases, injuries, and risk factors study (GBD) 2017. Methods We used GBD 2017 estimates of mortality due to physical violence and self-harm from firearms for Brazil to analyze the association between deaths by firearms and explanatory variables. Results Deaths from firearms increased in Brazil from 25,819 in 1990 to 48,493 in 2017. Firearm mortality rates were higher among men and in the 20–24 age group; the rate was 20 times higher than for women in the same age group. Homicide rates increased during the study period, while mortality rates for suicides and accidental deaths decreased. The group of Brazilian federation units with the highest firearm collection rate (median = 7.5) showed reductions in the rate of total violent deaths by firearms. In contrast, the group with the lowest firearm collection rate (median = 2.0) showed an increase in firearm deaths from 2000 to 2017. An increase in the rate of voluntary return of firearms was associated with a reduction in mortality rates of unintentional firearm deaths (r = −0.364, p < 0.001). An increase in socio-demographic index (SDI) was associated with a reduction in all firearm death rates (r = −0.266, p = 0.008). An increase in the composite index of firearms seized or collected was associated with a reduction in rates of deaths by firearm in the subgroup of females, children, and the elderly (r = −0.269, p = 0.005). Conclusions There was a change in the trend of firearms deaths after the beginning of the collection of weapons in 2004. Federation units that collected more guns have reduced rates of violent firearm deaths.

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Multiple Sclerosis Mortality Rates in Canada, 1975-2009

Canadian Journal of Neurological Sciences / Journal Canadien des Sciences Neurologiques ◽

10.1017/cjn.2015.236 ◽

2015 ◽

Vol 43 (1) ◽

pp. 134-141 ◽

Cited By ~ 9

Author(s):

Sharon A. Warren ◽

Wonita Janzen ◽

Kenneth G. Warren ◽

Lawrence W. Svenson ◽

Donald P. Schopflocher

Keyword(s):

Multiple Sclerosis ◽

General Population ◽

Age Distribution ◽

Mortality Rates ◽

Age Group ◽

Age At Death ◽

Annual Percent Change ◽

All Cause Mortality ◽

Statistics Canada ◽

Using Data

ABSTRACTBackground: This study examined mortality due to multiple sclerosis (MS) in Canada, 1975-2009 to determine whether there has been a change in age at death relative to the general population and decrease in MS mortality rates. Methods: Mortality rates/100,000 population for MS and all causes were calculated using data derived from Statistics Canada, age-standardized to the 2006 population. Results: The average annual Canadian MS mortality rate, 1975-2009 was 1.23/100,000. Five-year rates for 1975-79, 1980-84, 1985-89, 1990-94, 1995-99, 2000-04, 2005-09 were: 1.16, 0.94, 1.01, 1.16, 1.30, 1.43, 1.33. Trend analysis showed mortality rates over the entire 35 years were stable (average annual percent change of less than one percent). The average annual 1975-2009 rates for females and males were 1.45 and 0.99. Five-year female rates were always higher than males. Regardless of gender, there was a decrease in MS mortality rates in the 0-39 age group and increases in the 60-69, 70-79, and 80+ groups over time. In contrast, there were decreases in all-cause mortality rates across each age group. The highest MS mortality rates for 1975-2009 were consistently in the 50-59 and 60-69 groups for both genders, while the highest all-cause mortality rates were in the 80+ group. Conclusions: Changes in the age distribution of MS mortality rates indicate a shift to later age at death, possibly due to improved health care. However MS patients remain disadvantaged relative to the general population and changes in age at death are not reflected in decreased mortality rates.

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Mortality from Alzheimer's disease in Brazil, 2000-2009

Cadernos de Saúde Pública ◽

10.1590/0102-311x00144713 ◽

2015 ◽

Vol 31 (4) ◽

pp. 850-860 ◽

Cited By ~ 6

Author(s):

Jane Blanco Teixeira ◽

Paulo Roberto Borges de Souza Junior ◽

Joelma Higa ◽

Mariza Miranda Theme Filha

Keyword(s):

Alzheimer’S Disease ◽

Alzheimer's Disease ◽

The Elderly ◽

Mortality Rates ◽

Age Group ◽

Mortality Trend ◽

Elderly Men ◽

Exponential Regression ◽

All Cause Mortality ◽

Regression Adjustment

Alzheimer's disease is the most prevalent type of dementia in the elderly worldwide. To evaluate the mortality trend from Alzheimer's disease in Brazil, a descriptive study was conducted with the Mortality Information System of the Brazilian Ministry of Health (2000-2009). Age and sex-standardized mortality rates were calculated in Brazil's state capitals, showing the percentage variation by exponential regression adjustment. The state capitals as a whole showed an annual growth in mortality rates in the 60 to 79 year age bracket of 8.4% in women and 7.7% in men. In the 80 and older age group, the increase was 15.5% in women and 14% in men. Meanwhile, the all-cause mortality rate declined in both elderly men and women. The increase in mortality from Alzheimer's disease occurred in the context of chronic diseases as a proxy for increasing prevalence of the disease in the population. The authors suggest healthcare strategies for individuals with chronic non-communicable diseases

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Suicide in centenarians: the international landscape

International Psychogeriatrics ◽

10.1017/s1041610214001112 ◽

2014 ◽

Vol 26 (10) ◽

pp. 1703-1708 ◽

Cited By ~ 11

Author(s):

Ajit Shah ◽

Sofia Zarate-Escudero ◽

Ravi Bhat ◽

Diego De Leo ◽

Annette Erlangsen

Keyword(s):

Confidence Interval ◽

Elderly Population ◽

The Elderly ◽

Health Concern ◽

Age Group ◽

Public Health Concern ◽

Suicide Rates ◽

Icd 10 ◽

Using Data ◽

E Mail

ABSTRACTBackground.The elderly population size is growing worldwide due increased life expectancy and decreased mortality in the elderly. This has lead to an increase in the number of centenarians, and their numbers are predicted to increase further. Little is known about suicide rates in centenarians.Methods.Data on the number of suicides (ICD-10 codes, X60–84) in centenarians of both gender for as many years as possible from 2000 were ascertained from three sources: colleagues, national statisics office websites and e-mail contact with the national statistics offices of as many countries as possible. The number of centernarians for the corresponding years was estimated for each country using data provided by the United Nations website.Results.Data were available from 17 countries. The suicide rate was 57 (95% confidence interval 45–69) per 100, 000 person years in men and 6.8 (95% confidence interval 5.1–8.5) per 100,000 person years in women.Conclusions.Suicide rates were sufficiently large amongst centenarians for there to constitute a public health concern given the anticipated rise in the centenarian population and the paucity of data on risk and protective factors for suicide in this age group.

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(A252) Impact of Protracted, Intrastate Conflict on Population Health in Manipur, India

Prehospital and Disaster Medicine ◽

10.1017/s1049023x11002366 ◽

2011 ◽

Vol 26 (S1) ◽

pp. s69-s69

Author(s):

V. Kaushik ◽

S. Nair ◽

Y. Tanwar ◽

S. Sinha ◽

N. Roy

Keyword(s):

Drug Users ◽

Suicide Attempts ◽

Physical Violence ◽

Healthcare Delivery ◽

Healthcare Providers ◽

Medical Personnel ◽

The Elderly ◽

Hospital Inpatient ◽

Age Group ◽

Healthcare Facilities

IntroductionManipur is a state in northeastern India and in civil war for > 45 years. Healthcare delivery and access is affected due to poor security, restricted accessibility, and the incapacity of this fragile state.MethodsThe burden of morbidity and mortality in the conflict area of Manipur was estimated using data sources (hospital attendance, hospital inpatient, and death registries, national family and health registries, and in-depth interviews of healthcare providers) and compared to national averages. These findings were co-related with violent events reported in the local newspaper.ResultsExcess mortality was observed in the 21–50 year age group, but not in females or the elderly. The major causes of deaths were non-communicable diseases, cerebrovascular accidents, and chronic pulmonary disease. Chronic conflict increased the burden of alcohol liver disease and of mental health diseases. Suicidal deaths were common in the mid-twenty age group and usually due to agricultural pesticide consumption. These deaths were higher in men, and suicide attempts were higher in women. The prevalence of intravenous drug users and of HIV was reported to be five times as higher than the national average. High rates of disappearances, mutilation, torture, kidnapping, and hostage-taking, spousal physical violence and attacks on healthcare facilities and medical personnel were events of concern. There were no reported events of suicide bombers.ConclusionsProtracted conflict dramatically changes the demographics and disease burden. Humanitarian space constantly is under threat of attack and the insecurity interferes with the provision of sustained preventive and curative services. Recommendations to be implemented would measures to continue treatment in the insecure environment through telephonic or online medical helplines, vaccination, and drug supplies during negotiated ceasefires or curfew times and protecting humanitarian spaces. However, militarization of healthcare may not be favorable solution.

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A Study on Link Functions for Modelling and Forecasting Old-Age Survival Probabilities of Australia and New Zealand

Risks ◽

10.3390/risks9010011 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 9 (1) ◽

pp. 11

Author(s):

Jacie Jia Liu

Keyword(s):

The Elderly ◽

Mortality Rates ◽

Model Parameters ◽

Probability Models ◽

Macroeconomic Factors ◽

Explanatory Variables ◽

Survival Probabilities ◽

Link Functions ◽

Forecasting Performance ◽

Modelling And Forecasting

Forecasting survival probabilities and life expectancies is an important exercise for actuaries, demographers, and social planners. In this paper, we examine extensively a number of link functions on survival probabilities and model the evolution of period survival curves of lives aged 60 over time for the elderly populations in Australasia. The link functions under examination include the newly proposed gevit and gevmin, which are compared against the traditional ones like probit, complementary log-log, and logit. We project the model parameters and so the survival probabilities into the future, from which life expectancies at old ages can be forecasted. We find that some of these models on survival probabilities, particularly those based on the new links, can provide superior fitting results and forecasting performances when compared to the more conventional approach of modelling mortality rates. Furthermore, we demonstrate how these survival probability models can be extended to incorporate extra explanatory variables such as macroeconomic factors in order to further improve the forecasting performance.

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Age separation dramatically reduces COVID-19 mortality rate in a computational model of a large population

10.1101/2020.05.27.20111955 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Liron Mizrahi ◽

Shani Stern

Keyword(s):

Elderly Population ◽

Large Population ◽

Age Groups ◽

The Elderly ◽

Mortality Rates ◽

Social Connections ◽

Age Group ◽

Efficient Treatment ◽

Age Related ◽

Total Death

AbstractCOVID-19 pandemic has caused a global lock down in many countries throughout the world. Faced with a new reality, and until a vaccine or efficient treatment is found, humanity must figure out ways to keep economy going on one hand, yet keep the population safe on the other hand, especially those that are susceptible to this virus. Here we use a network simulation, with parameters that were drawn from what is known about the virus, to explore 5 different scenarios of partial lock down release. We find that separating age groups by reducing interactions between age groups, protects the general population and reduces mortality rates. Furthermore, addition of new connections within the same age group to compensate for the lost connections outside the age group, still has a strong beneficial influence and reduces the total death toll by 66%. While complete isolation from society may be the most protective scenario for the elderly population, it would have an emotional and possibly cognitive impact that might outweigh its benefit. We therefore propose creating age-related social recommendations or even restrictions, thereby allowing social connections but still strong protection for the older population.

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The Impact of Obesity on Outcomes in Geriatric Blunt Trauma

The American Surgeon ◽

10.1177/000313481908500227 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 85 (2) ◽

pp. 188-195 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Rahman Barry ◽

Milad Modarresi ◽

Rafael Duran ◽

David Denning ◽

Stephen Wilson ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Blunt Trauma ◽

Burden Of Disease ◽

Injury Severity ◽

Trauma Registry ◽

The Elderly ◽

Mortality Rates ◽

Hospital Length Of Stay ◽

Global Burden Of Disease ◽

Global Burden ◽

The Impact

Blunt trauma is poorly tolerated in the elderly, and the degree to which obesity, a known risk factor for suboptimal outcomes in trauma affects this population remains to be determined. The incidence, prevalence, and mortality rates of blunt trauma by demographics, year, and geography were found using datasets from both the Global Burden of Disease database, and a Regional Level II trauma registry. Global Burden of Disease data were extracted from 284 country-year and 976 subnational-year combinations from 27 countries for the period 1990 to 2015. The regional trauma registry was interrogated for patients ≥70 years admitted with blunt trauma between 2014 and 2016. The incidence of elderly blunt trauma from falls increased at a global, national (United States), and state (WV) level from 1990 to 2015 by 78.3 per cent, 54.7 per cent, and 42.7 per cent, respectively with concomitant increases in mortality rates of 5.7 per cent, 102.6 per cent, and 89.3 per cent (P < 0.05). The regional cohort had a statistically similar mortality (obese, n = 320 vs nonobese, n = 926 of 4.8% vs 4.4%, respectively, P > 0.05). The hospital length-of-stay, Glasgow Coma Scale score, and systolic blood pressure on presentation were similar (P > 0.05) as was the Injury Severity Score. Major medical comorbidities were identified in 280 (87.5%) and 783 (84.6%) patients in the obese and nonobese groups, respectively. Blunt trauma, secondary to falls, has increased in elderly patients at a global, national, and state level with a concomitant increase in mortality rates. Although a similar increase in the incidence of blunt trauma in the elderly was noted at a regional center, its mortality has not been increased by obesity, possibly because of similar comorbidity rates.

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Magnitude, temporal trends and inequality in global burden of tracheal, bronchus and lung cancer: findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

BMJ Global Health ◽

10.1136/bmjgh-2020-002788 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 5 (10) ◽

pp. e002788

Author(s):

Zhaojun Wang ◽

Liu Hu ◽

Jin Li ◽

Li Wei ◽

Junhang Zhang ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Socioeconomic Development ◽

Temporal Trends ◽

Global Burden ◽

Tracheal Bronchus ◽

Local Conditions ◽

Calculated Concentration ◽

Cancer Burden ◽

Using Data ◽

Global Burden Of Diseases ◽

Disease Study

IntroductionWe aimed to assess the magnitude, temporal trends and socioeconomic disparity in the global burden of tracheal, bronchus and lung (TBL) from 1990 to 2017, using data extracted from the Global Burden of Diseases study (GBD 2017).MethodsWe extracted data from the GBD 2017 study. A series of comparative and descriptive analyses of the disease burden between females and males and countries with different socioeconomic development statuses (Social Demographic Index, SDI). We also analysed the temporal trends of age-standardised disability-adjusted life year rates (ASDR) of TBL cancer at the global and super-regional level by means of joinpoint regression. Finally, we also calculated Concentration Index to explore trends of between-country inequality in cancer burden from 1990 to 2017.ResultsDuring the past 27 years, the global incidence of TBL cancer cases and death cases has increased by 100% and 82.3% respectively, but the increase number was mainly influenced by population growth and ageing. After adjustment, from 1990 to 2017, the ASDR of TBL has increased by 3% and the age-standardised death rate has decreased by 7%. The global TBL cancer burden fell by 15.3%. The joinpoint analysis revealed that the overall trend of age-standardised TBL cancer burden for both females and males significantly changed twice between 1990 and 2017, and it varied across countries with different SDI values and was also different between females and males. Age-standardised TBL cancer burden was more concentrated in higher socioeconomic development countries, but the development of healthy inequality showed a downward trend in males while showing an upward trend in females.ConclusionThe magnitude and temporal trends of TBL cancer burden varied across countries and sex. This study highlighted the importance of crafting health policy to adapt to local conditions to manage the global burden of TBL cancers.

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Dying of Cold in the Sunbelt: Elderly Hypothermia Mortality Rates

OMEGA - Journal of Death and Dying ◽

10.2190/hbar-1plr-y2f9-ygug ◽

1995 ◽

Vol 30 (1) ◽

pp. 13-21

Author(s):

Susan M. Macey ◽

Dona F. Schneider

Keyword(s):

The Elderly ◽

Mortality Rates ◽

Descriptive Statistics ◽

Mortality Data ◽

Age Group ◽

Death Rates

Given that Sunbelt states promote their images by stressing their good climate, the question arises as to how healthy their climate is for the elderly. This study compares deaths attributed to excessive cold for persons sixty years of age and over in Sunbelt and nonsunbelt states for the years 1980–1985. State mortality data are analyzed using descriptive statistics and simple correlations. Blacks of both sexes have significantly higher death rates in the Sunbelt, while the reverse is true for whites. Death rates by age group were generally lower in the Sunbelt, though the few significant correlations showed a Sunbelt bias. The latter may be linked to particularly severe winters.

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Time Trends and Predictions of Suicide Mortality for People Aged 70 Years and Over From 1990 to 2030 Based on the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Frontiers in Psychiatry ◽

10.3389/fpsyt.2021.721343 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 12 ◽

Author(s):

Jun He ◽

Feiyun Ouyang ◽

Dan Qiu ◽

Ling Li ◽

Yilu Li ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Mortality Rate ◽

Time Trends ◽

The Elderly ◽

Mortality Rates ◽

Sub Saharan Africa ◽

Suicide Mortality ◽

Global Burden ◽

Sub Saharan ◽

Elderly Suicide ◽

Disease Study

Background: High suicide rate in the elderly is an important global public health problem but has not received the attention it deserves. This study aimed to examine time trends of suicide mortality for people aged 70 years and over by sex, age, and location from 1990 to 2017, and to provide predictions up to 2030.Methods: Using data from the Global Burden of Disease study 2017, we presented elderly suicide mortality changes and compared the patterns for the elderly with that for all ages. We estimated associations between socio-demographic index (SDI) and suicide mortality rates using a restricted cubic spline smoother, and predicted suicide mortality rates up to 2030.Results: In 2017, 118,813 people aged 70 years and over died from suicide, indicating a mortality rate of 27.5 per 100,000, with the highest rates in Eastern Sub-Saharan Africa, Western Sub-Saharan Africa, and Central Sub-Saharan Africa, and for countries and territories, the highest were in South Korea, Zimbabwe, Lesotho, Mozambique, and Senegal. Between 1990 and 2017, suicide mortality rate for the elderly aged 70 years and over decreased globally (percentage change −29.1%), and the largest decreases occurred in East Asia, Southern Latin America, and Western Europe. Nationally, the largest decrease was found in Chile, followed by Czech Republic, Hungary, Turkey, and Philippines. For most countries, the elderly mortality rate was higher than the age-standardized rate, with the largest percentage differences in China and countries in Sub-Saharan Africa. The elderly suicide mortality rate decreased as SDI increased, except for a slight rebound at mid to high SDI. According to projections, 10 out of 195 countries were expected to meet the SDGs indicator of a third reduction by 2030.Conclusions: Variability in suicide mortality rates for the elderly aged 70 years and over by sex, age, region, country, and SDI can guide preventive policies, but causes of the variability need further study. Comprehensive strategies should be adopted to reduce suicide rates and close the gap to the 2030 SDGs.

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