Integrating hazard, exposure, vulnerability and resilience for risk and emergency management in a volcanic context: the ADVISE model

AbstractRisk assessments in volcanic contexts are complicated by the multi-hazard nature of both unrest and eruption phases, which frequently occur over a wide range of spatial and temporal scales. As an attempt to capture the multi-dimensional and dynamic nature of volcanic risk, we developed an integrAteD VolcanIc risk asSEssment (ADVISE) model that focuses on two temporal dimensions that authorities have to address in a volcanic context: short-term emergency management and long-term risk management. The output of risk assessment in the ADVISE model is expressed in terms of potential physical, functional, and systemic damage, determined by combining the available information on hazard, exposed systems and vulnerability. The ADVISE model permits qualitative, semi-quantitative and quantitative risk assessment depending on the final objective and on the available information. The proposed approach has evolved over a decade of study on the volcanic island of Vulcano (Italy), where recent signs of unrest combined with uncontrolled urban development and significant seasonal variations of exposed population result in highly dynamic volcanic risk. For the sake of illustration of all the steps of the ADVISE model, we focus here on the risk assessment of the transport system in relation to the tephra fallout associated with a long-lasting Vulcanian cycle.

Download Full-text

CLIMADA – a global weather and climate risk assessment platform

10.5194/gmd-2018-338 ◽

2019 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Gabriela Aznar-Siguan ◽

David N. Bresch

Keyword(s):

Risk Assessment ◽

Probabilistic Approach ◽

Extreme Weather Events ◽

Climate Conditions ◽

Hazard Exposure ◽

Weather Events ◽

Wide Range ◽

High Population Growth ◽

Socio Economic Impact ◽

Event Based

Abstract. The need for assessing the risk of extreme weather events is ever increasing. In addition to quantification of risk today, the role of aggravating factors such as high population growth and changing climate conditions do matter, too. We present the open source software CLIMADA, which integrates hazard, exposure and vulnerability to compute the necessary metrics to assess risk and to quantify socio-economic impact. The software design is modular and object-oriented, offering a simple collaborative framework and a parallelization strategy which allows for scalable computations on clusters. CLIMADA supports multi-hazard calculations and provides an event-based probabilistic approach that is globally consistent for a wide range of resolutions, suitable for whole-country to detailed local studies. This paper uses the platform to estimate and contextualize the damage of hurricane Irma in the Caribbean in 2017. Most of the affected islands are non-sovereign countries and do also rely on overseas support in case disaster strikes. The risk assessment performed for this region, based on remotely available data available shortly before or hours after landfall of Irma, proves to be close to reported damage and hence demonstrates a method to provide readily available impact estimates and associated uncertainties in real time.

Download Full-text

Technical safety: use of concept risk assessment for field development certainty

The APPEA Journal ◽

10.1071/aj18036 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 59 (2) ◽

pp. 549

Author(s):

Colin Crowley ◽

Dave Ashton

Keyword(s):

Risk Assessment ◽

Design Feature ◽

Safety Performance ◽

Quantitative Risk Assessment ◽

Individual Risk ◽

Field Development ◽

Risk Levels ◽

Wide Range ◽

Rule Sets ◽

Risk Reduction Measures

As technology advances and field development possibilities grow, the need for earlier guidance on the safety performance of concept designs is greater than ever. The SNC-Lavalin concept risk assessment (CRA) tool is a transparent and rapidly deployable model that is based on sound, industry-accepted quantitative risk assessment (QRA) principles. From the earliest stages of field development, when conceptualisation may be vague and data sparse, a wide range and variety of design options can still be assessed effectively and ranked on their safety performance. The CRA tool is proprietary software initially developed with BP and Shell. The model was first calibrated against 10 detailed QRAs, but is regularly benchmarked and updated with the most current failure rate data and has been used on nearly 50 projects globally. The database now incorporates established rule sets from hundreds of detailed QRAs performed, including floating liquefied natural gas and floating storage regasification units. This paper presents a CRA case study for a generic remote offshore field with a range of development options from conventional to minimal offshore facilities. The model calculates the associated risks for the options considered and is presented in terms of individual risk per annum, temporary refuge impairment frequency and potential loss of life. The results highlight the effects of each individual design feature on risk levels by comparison of similar options side by side, noting the main risk contributors and allowing investigation of the benefits of risk reduction measures. This enables identification of the best design features from each of the options and allows an optimised design to be carried forward.

Download Full-text

Implementation of Quantitative Risk Assessment: Case Study

Volume 3: Materials and Joining; Risk and Reliability ◽

10.1115/ipc2014-33641 ◽

2014 ◽

Author(s):

David Mangold ◽

W. Kent Muhlbauer ◽

Jim Ponder ◽

Tony Alfano

Keyword(s):

Risk Assessment ◽

Decision Making ◽

Risk Management ◽

The United States ◽

Management Program ◽

Quantitative Risk Assessment ◽

Management Decision ◽

Classical Statistics ◽

Wide Range

Risk management of pipelines is a complex challenge due to the dynamic environment of the real world coupled with a wide range of system types installed over many decades. Various methods of risk assessment are currently being used in industry, many of which utilize relative scoring. These assessments are often not designed for the new integrity management program (IMP) requirements and are under direct challenge by regulators. SemGroup had historically used relative risk assessment methodologies to help support risk management decision-making. While the formality offered by these early methods provided benefits, it was recognized that, in order to more effectively manage risk and better meet the United States IMP objectives, a more effective risk assessment would be needed. A rapid and inexpensive migration into a better risk assessment platform was sought. The platform needed to be applicable not only to pipeline miles, but also to station facilities and all related components. The risk results had to be readily understandable and scalable, capturing risks from ‘trap to trap’ in addition to risks accompanying each segment. The solution appeared in the form a quantitative risk assessment that was ‘physics based’ rather than the classical statistics based QRA. This paper will outline the steps involved in this transition process and show how quantitative risk assessment may be efficiently implemented to better guide integrity decision-making, illustrated with a case study from SemGroup.

Download Full-text

Safety Risk Acceptance Criteria for Pipelines

Volume 2: Pipeline Safety Management Systems; Project Management, Design, Construction, and Environmental Issues; Strain Based Design; Risk and Reliability; Northern, Offshore, and Production Pipelines ◽

10.1115/ipc2020-9274 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Maher Nessim ◽

Shahani Kariyawasam

Keyword(s):

Risk Assessment ◽

Oil And Gas ◽

Task Force ◽

Quantitative Risk Assessment ◽

Background Information ◽

Individual Risk ◽

Acceptance Criteria ◽

Safety Risk ◽

Wide Range ◽

Societal Risk

Abstract The lack of established acceptance criteria has been one of the key challenges to the application of quantitative risk assessment (QRA) techniques in the Canadian pipeline industry. While a wide range of such criteria have been developed and published, it remains difficult for most operators to commit to specific criteria because such criteria may not be acceptable to all stakeholders. Recognizing this limitation, the Canadian Standards Association formed a Risk Management Task Force (RMTF) under the Technical Committee for the Z662 Standard on the Oil and Gas Pipeline Systems to propose criteria for potential inclusion in its non-mandatory Annex on Risk Assessment. This paper describes the criteria that have been developed by the RMTF and provides the background information needed for users to understand and use them correctly. The discussion includes: a summary of the measures used to quantify the safety risk associated with an ignited product release; a summary of established international and Canadian criteria that have been considered; a description and interpretation of the ALARP (As Low As Reasonably Practicable) principle; and the rationale used by the RMTF to select specific individual risk and societal risk criteria for CSA Z662. The proposed criteria are also compared to the criteria underpinning other risk-based parts of the Z662 Standard, including Annexes C and O. Guidance is provided on the analysis assumptions, methods and parameters required to ensure that the risk calculations produce results that are consistent with the definition and intent of the criteria. Key issues addressed by the guidance include the definition of individual risk (i.e. location risk versus personal risk), the pipeline length over which the frequency versus number of fatalities (F-N) relationship representing societal risk is calculated, and the effect of population density averaging over the pipeline length.

Download Full-text

Understanding risk: what makes a risk assessment successful?

International Journal of Disaster Resilience in the Built Environment ◽

10.1108/ijdrbe-06-2015-0033 ◽

2016 ◽

Vol 7 (2) ◽

pp. 186-200 ◽

Cited By ~ 14

Author(s):

Richard Murnane ◽

Alanna Simpson ◽

Brenden Jongman

Keyword(s):

Risk Assessment ◽

Disaster Risk ◽

Social Processes ◽

Risk Information ◽

Decision Makers ◽

Quantitative Risk Assessment ◽

Content Type ◽

Wide Range ◽

Scientists And Engineers ◽

The Right

Purpose Understanding risk is more than just modeling risk; it requires an understanding of the development and social processes that underlie and drive the generation of disaster risk. Here, in addition to a review of more technical factors, this paper aims to discuss a variety of institutional, social and political considerations that must be managed for the results of a risk assessment to influence actions that lead to reductions in natural hazard risk. Design/methodology/approach The technical approaches and the institutional, social and political considerations covered in this paper are based on a wide range of experiences gleaned from case studies that touch on a variety of activities related to assessing the risks and impacts of natural hazards, and from the activities of the World Bank’s Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery. Findings Risk information provides a critical foundation for managing disaster risk across a wide range of sectors. Appropriate communication of robust risk information at the right time can raise awareness and trigger action to reduce risk. Communicating this information in a way that triggers action requires an understanding of the developments and social processes that underlie and drive the generation of risk, as well as of the wider Disaster Risk Management (DRM) decision-making context. Practical implications Prior to the initiation of a quantitative risk assessment one should clearly define why an assessment is needed and wanted, the information gaps that currently prevent effective DRM actions and the end-users of the risk information. This requires developing trust through communication among the scientists and engineers performing the risk assessment and the decision-makers, authorities, communities and other intended users of the information developed through the assessment. Originality/value This paper summarizes the technical components of a risk assessment as well as the institutional, social and political considerations that should be considered to maximize the probability of successfully reducing the risk defined by a risk assessment.

Download Full-text

Community Perception and Communication of Volcanic Risk from the Cotopaxi Volcano in Latacunga, Ecuador

Sustainability ◽

10.3390/su13041714 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 13 (4) ◽

pp. 1714

Author(s):

Juan Camilo Gomez-Zapata ◽

Cristhian Parrado ◽

Theresa Frimberger ◽

Fernando Barragán-Ochoa ◽

Fabio Brill ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Risk Perceptions ◽

Quantitative Risk Assessment ◽

Volcanic Risk ◽

Social Risk ◽

Community Perception ◽

Exposed Population ◽

The Social ◽

Cotopaxi Volcano ◽

Hazard Scenario

The inhabitants of Latacunga living in the surrounding of the Cotopaxi volcano (Ecuador) are exposed to several hazards and related disasters. After the last 2015 volcanic eruption, it became evident once again how important it is for the exposed population to understand their own social, physical, and systemic vulnerability. Effective risk communication is essential before the occurrence of a volcanic crisis. This study integrates quantitative risk and semi-quantitative social risk perceptions, aiming for risk-informed communities. We present the use of the RIESGOS demonstrator for interactive exploration and visualisation of risk scenarios. The development of this demonstrator through an iterative process with the local experts and potential end-users increases both the quality of the technical tool as well as its practical applicability. Moreover, the community risk perception in a focused area was investigated through online and field surveys. Geo-located interviews are used to map the social perception of volcanic risk factors. Scenario-based outcomes from quantitative risk assessment obtained by the RIESGOS demonstrator are compared with the semi-quantitative risk perceptions. We have found that further efforts are required to provide the exposed communities with a better understanding of the concepts of hazard scenario and intensity.

Download Full-text

CLIMADA v1: a global weather and climate risk assessment platform

Geoscientific Model Development ◽

10.5194/gmd-12-3085-2019 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 12 (7) ◽

pp. 3085-3097 ◽

Cited By ~ 7

Author(s):

Gabriela Aznar-Siguan ◽

David N. Bresch

Keyword(s):

Risk Assessment ◽

Climate Adaptation ◽

Probabilistic Approach ◽

Extreme Weather Events ◽

Climate Conditions ◽

Hazard Exposure ◽

Wide Range ◽

High Population Growth ◽

Socio Economic Impact ◽

Event Based

Abstract. The need for assessing the risk of extreme weather events is ever increasing. In addition to quantification of risk today, the role of aggravating factors such as high population growth and changing climate conditions matters, too. We present the open-source software CLIMADA (CLIMate ADAptation), which integrates hazard, exposure, and vulnerability to compute the necessary metrics to assess risk and to quantify socio-economic impact. The software design is modular and object oriented, offering a simple collaborative framework and a parallelization strategy which allows for scalable computations on clusters. CLIMADA supports multi-hazard calculations and provides an event-based probabilistic approach that is globally consistent for a wide range of resolutions, suitable for whole-country to detailed local studies. This paper uses the platform to estimate and contextualize the damage of hurricane Irma in the Caribbean in 2017. Most of the affected islands are non-sovereign countries and also rely on overseas support in case disaster strikes. The risk assessment performed for this region, based on remotely available data available shortly before or hours after landfall of Irma, proves to be close to reported damage and hence demonstrates a method to provide readily available impact estimates and associated uncertainties in real time.

Download Full-text

Risk Assessment of Terrestrial Transportation Infrastructures Exposed to Extreme Events

Infrastructures ◽

10.3390/infrastructures6110163 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 6 (11) ◽

pp. 163

Author(s):

Unni Eidsvig ◽

Monica Santamaría ◽

Neryvaldo Galvão ◽

Nikola Tanasic ◽

Luca Piciullo ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Risk Assessment ◽

Extreme Events ◽

Failure Modes ◽

Risk Mitigation ◽

Transportation Infrastructure ◽

Quantitative Risk Assessment ◽

Mitigation Measures ◽

Adverse Conditions ◽

Hazard Exposure ◽

Made In

Keeping transport links open in adverse conditions and being able to restore connections quickly after extreme events are important and demanding tasks for infrastructure owners/operators. This paper is developed within the H2020 project SAFEWAY, whose main goal is to increase the resilience of terrestrial transportation infrastructure. Risk-based approaches are excellent tools to aid in the decision-making process of planning maintenance and implementation of risk mitigation measures with the ultimate goal of reducing risk and increasing resilience. This paper presents a framework for quantitative risk assessment which guides an integrated assessment of the risk components: hazard, exposure, vulnerability and consequences of a malfunctioning transportation infrastructure. The paper guides the identification of failure modes for transportation infrastructure exposed to extreme events (natural and human-made) and provides models for and examples of hazard, vulnerability and risk assessment. Each assessment step must be made in coherence with the other risk components as an integral part of the risk assessment.

Download Full-text

A MODELING SYSTEM FOR CLIMATE CHANGE RISK ASSESSMENT, MANAGEMENT AND HEDGING IN COASTAL AREAS

Proceedings of International Conference "Managinag risks to coastal regions and communities in a changinag world" (EMECS'11 - SeaCoasts XXVI) ◽

10.31519/conferencearticle_5b1b9398d1adf1.08545898 ◽

2017 ◽

Author(s):

Sergei Soldatenko ◽

Genrikh Alekseev ◽

Alexander Danilov ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Risk Assessment ◽

Coastal Areas ◽

Mitigation Strategies ◽

System Structure ◽

The Arctic ◽

Risk Modeling ◽

Wide Range ◽

Adverse Weather ◽

The Impact

Every aspect of human operations faces a wide range of risks, some of which can cause serious consequences. By the start of 21st century, mankind has recognized a new class of risks posed by climate change. It is obvious, that the global climate is changing, and will continue to change, in ways that affect the planning and day to day operations of businesses, government agencies and other organizations and institutions. The manifestations of climate change include but not limited to rising sea levels, increasing temperature, flooding, melting polar sea ice, adverse weather events (e.g. heatwaves, drought, and storms) and a rise in related problems (e.g. health and environmental). Assessing and managing climate risks represent one of the most challenging issues of today and for the future. The purpose of the risk modeling system discussed in this paper is to provide a framework and methodology to quantify risks caused by climate change, to facilitate estimates of the impact of climate change on various spheres of human activities and to compare eventual adaptation and risk mitigation strategies. The system integrates both physical climate system and economic models together with knowledge-based subsystem, which can help support proactive risk management. System structure and its main components are considered. Special attention is paid to climate risk assessment, management and hedging in the Arctic coastal areas.

Download Full-text