scholarly journals Long-term cost-effectiveness of interventions for loss of electricity/industry compared to artificial general intelligence safety

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
David Denkenberger ◽  
Anders Sandberg ◽  
Ross John Tieman ◽  
Joshua M. Pearce
Keyword(s):  
Cost Effectiveness ◽  
Cost Effective ◽  
Cyber Attacks ◽  
General Intelligence ◽  
Artificial General Intelligence ◽  
Industrial Civilization ◽  
Effective Altruism ◽  
Solar Storms ◽  
Theory Uncertainty

AbstractExtreme solar storms, high-altitude electromagnetic pulses, and coordinated cyber attacks could disrupt regional/global electricity. Since electricity basically drives industry, industrial civilization could collapse without it. This could cause anthropological civilization (cities) to collapse, from which humanity might not recover, having long-term consequences. Previous work analyzed technical solutions to save nearly everyone despite industrial loss globally, including transition to animals powering farming and transportation. The present work estimates cost-effectiveness for the long-term future with a Monte Carlo (probabilistic) model. Model 1, partly based on a poll of Effective Altruism conference participants, finds a confidence that industrial loss preparation is more cost-effective than artificial general intelligence safety of ~ 88% and ~ 99+% for the 30 millionth dollar spent on industrial loss interventions and the margin now, respectively. Model 2 populated by one of the authors produces ~ 50% and ~ 99% confidence, respectively. These confidences are likely to be reduced by model and theory uncertainty, but the conclusion of industrial loss interventions being more cost-effective was robust to changing the most important 4–7 variables simultaneously to their pessimistic ends. Both cause areas save expected lives cheaply in the present generation and funding to preparation for industrial loss is particularly urgent.

scholarly journals Long Term Cost-Effectiveness of Resilient Foods for Global Catastrophes Compared to Artificial General Intelligence Safety

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
David Denkenberger ◽  
Anders Sandberg ◽  
Ross Tieman ◽  
Joshua M. Pearce
Keyword(s):  
Cost Effectiveness ◽  
Charitable Giving ◽  
Probabilistic Models ◽  
Cost Effective ◽  
General Intelligence ◽  
Artificial General Intelligence ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Long Term Consequences ◽  
Nuclear Winter

Global agricultural catastrophes, which include nuclear winter and abrupt climate change, could have long-term consequences on humanity such as the collapse and nonrecovery of civilization. Using Monte Carlo (probabilistic) models, we analyze the long-term cost-effectiveness of resilient foods (alternative foods) - roughly those independent of sunlight such as mushrooms. One version of the model populated partly by a survey of global catastrophic risk researchers finds the confidence that resilient foods is more cost effective than artificial general intelligence safety is ~86% and ~99% for the 100 millionth dollar spent on resilient foods at the margin now, respectively. Another version of the model based on one of the authors produced ~95% and ~99% confidence, respectively. Considering uncertainty represented within our models, our result is robust: reverting the conclusion required simultaneously changing the 3-5 most important parameters to the pessimistic ends. However, as predicting the long-run trajectory of human civilization is extremely difficult, and model and theory uncertainties are very large, this significantly reduces our overall confidence. Because the agricultural catastrophes could happen immediately and because existing expertise relevant to resilient foods could be co-opted by charitable giving, it is likely optimal to spend most of the money for resilient foods in the next few years. Both cause areas generally save expected current lives inexpensively and should attract greater investment.

scholarly journals Cost-effectiveness of a hybrid emergency room system for severe trauma: a health technology assessment from the perspective of the third-party payer in Japan

2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Takahiro Kinoshita ◽  
Kensuke Moriwaki ◽  
Nao Hanaki ◽  
Tetsuhisa Kitamura ◽  
Kazuma Yamakawa ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Cost Effectiveness ◽  
Emergency Room ◽  
Healthcare Costs ◽  
Cost Effective ◽  
Severe Trauma ◽  
Third Party ◽  
Trauma Patients ◽  
Short Term ◽  
The Third

Abstract Background Hybrid emergency room (ER) systems, consisting of an angiography-computed tomography (CT) machine in a trauma resuscitation room, are reported to be effective for reducing death from exsanguination in trauma patients. We aimed to investigate the cost-effectiveness of a hybrid ER system in severe trauma patients without severe traumatic brain injury (TBI). Methods We conducted a cost-utility analysis comparing the hybrid ER system to the conventional ER system from the perspective of the third-party healthcare payer in Japan. A short-term decision tree and a long-term Markov model using a lifetime time horizon were constructed to estimate quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) and associated lifetime healthcare costs. Short-term mortality and healthcare costs were derived from medical records and claims data in a tertiary care hospital with a hybrid ER. Long-term mortality and utilities were extrapolated from the literature. The willingness-to-pay threshold was set at $47,619 per QALY gained and the discount rate was 2%. Deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were conducted. Results The hybrid ER system was associated with a gain of 1.03 QALYs and an increment of $33,591 lifetime costs compared to the conventional ER system, resulting in an ICER of $32,522 per QALY gained. The ICER was lower than the willingness-to-pay threshold if the odds ratio of 28-day mortality was < 0.66. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis indicated that the hybrid ER system was cost-effective with a 79.3% probability. Conclusion The present study suggested that the hybrid ER system is a likely cost-effective strategy for treating severe trauma patients without severe TBI.

scholarly journals First-Line Atezolizumab Plus Bevacizumab versus Sorafenib in Hepatocellular Carcinoma: A Cost-Effectiveness Analysis

Cancers ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (5) ◽  
pp. 931
Author(s):  
Chi-Leung Chiang ◽  
Sik-Kwan Chan ◽  
Shing-Fung Lee ◽  
Horace Cheuk-Wai Choi
Keyword(s):  
Hepatocellular Carcinoma ◽  
Cost Effectiveness ◽  
Lifetime Cost ◽  
Cost Effective ◽  
First Line ◽  
First Line Therapy ◽  
Payer Perspective ◽  
Life Years ◽  
Using Data

Background: The IMbrave 150 trial revealed that atezolizumab plus bevacizumab (atezo–bev) improves survival in patients with unresectable hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) (1 year survival rate: 67.2% vs. 54.6%). We assessed the cost-effectiveness of atezo–bev vs. sorafenib as first-line therapy in patients with unresectable HCC from the US payer perspective. Methods: Using data from the IMbrave 150, we developed a Markov model to compare the lifetime cost and efficacy of atezo–bev as first-line systemic therapy in HCC with those of sorafenib. The main outcomes were life-years, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), lifetime costs, and incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER). Results: Atezo–bev demonstrated a gain of 0.44 QALYs, with an additional cost of USD 79,074. The ICER of atezo–bev was USD 179,729 per QALY when compared with sorafenib. The model was most sensitive to the overall survival hazard ratio and body weight. If we assumed that all patients at the end of the IMbrave 150 trial were cured of HCC, atezo–bev was cost-effective (ICER USD 53,854 per QALY). However, if all patients followed the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results data, the ICER of atezo–bev was USD 385,857 per QALY. Reducing the price of atezo–bev by 20% and 29% would satisfy the USD 150,000/QALY and 100,000/QALY willingness-to-pay threshold. Moreover, capping the duration of therapy to ≤12 months or reducing the dosage of bev to ≤10 mg/kg would render atezo–bev cost-effective. Conclusions: The long-term effectiveness of atezo–bev is a critical but uncertain determinant of its cost-effectiveness. Price reduction would favorably influence cost-effectiveness, even if long-term clinical outcomes were modest. Further studies to optimize the duration and dosage of therapy are warranted.

A cost-effectiveness analysis of social transfers on human capital accumulation

2021 ◽  
Vol 52 (207) ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrés Mideros
Keyword(s):  
Human Capital ◽  
Cost Effectiveness ◽  
Capital Accumulation ◽  
Cost Effective ◽  
Cash Transfers ◽  
Human Capital Accumulation ◽  
Effectiveness Analysis ◽  
Long Term Effect ◽  
Social Transfers

The paper reports on an ex-ante evaluation of the long-term effect of the Ecuadorian social transfer programme called “Bono de Desarrollo Humano (BDH)” on human capital accumulation. A dynamic cohort microsimulation model is used to analyse for cost-effectiveness of different policy scenarios. Results show that cash transfers do promotehuman capital accumulation but with rather small effect. Transfers targeted at critical ages are the most cost-effective to promote human capital accumulation

scholarly journals Cost-effectiveness of positive airway pressure modalities in obesity hypoventilation syndrome with severe obstructive sleep apnoea

Thorax ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 75 (6) ◽  
pp. 459-467 ◽  
Author(s):  
Juan F Masa ◽  
Babak Mokhlesi ◽  
Iván Benítez ◽  
Francisco Javier Gómez de Terreros Caro ◽  
M-Ángeles Sánchez-Quiroga ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Cost Effectiveness ◽  
Primary Outcome ◽  
Cost Effective ◽  
Sleep Apnoea ◽  
Obesity Hypoventilation Syndrome ◽  
Obstructive Sleep ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Hypoventilation Syndrome ◽  
Obesity Hypoventilation

BackgroundObesity hypoventilation syndrome (OHS) is treated with either non-invasive ventilation (NIV) or CPAP, but there are no long-term cost-effectiveness studies comparing the two treatment modalities.ObjectivesWe performed a large, multicentre, randomised, open-label controlled study to determine the comparative long-term cost and effectiveness of NIV versus CPAP in patients with OHS with severe obstructive sleep apnoea (OSA) using hospitalisation days as the primary outcome measure.MethodsHospital resource utilisation and within trial costs were evaluated against the difference in effectiveness based on the primary outcome (hospitalisation days/year, transformed and non-transformed in monetary term). Costs and effectiveness were estimated from a log-normal distribution using a Bayesian approach. A secondary analysis by adherence subgroups was performed.ResultsIn total, 363 patients were selected, 215 were randomised and 202 were available for the analysis. The median (IQR) follow-up was 3.01 (2.91–3.14) years for NIV group and 3.00 (2.92–3.17) years for CPAP. The mean (SD) Bayesian estimated hospital days was 2.13 (0.73) for CPAP and 1.89 (0.78) for NIV. The mean (SD) Bayesian estimated cost per patient/year in the NIV arm, excluding hospitalisation costs, was €2075.98 (91.6), which was higher than the cost in the CPAP arm of €1219.06 (52.3); mean difference €857.6 (105.5). CPAP was more cost-effective than NIV (99.5% probability) because longer hospital stay in the CPAP arm was compensated for by its lower costs. Similar findings were observed in the high and low adherence subgroups.ConclusionCPAP is more cost-effective than NIV; therefore, CPAP should be the preferred treatment for patients with OHS with severe OSA.Trial registration numberNCT01405976

scholarly journals Early invasive strategy in senior patients with non-ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction: is it cost-effective? - a decision-analytic model and value of information analysis

BMJ Open ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 9 (9) ◽  
pp. e030678 ◽  
Author(s):  
Julija Simpson ◽  
Mehdi Javanbakht ◽  
Luke Vale
Keyword(s):  
Myocardial Infarction ◽  
Cost Effectiveness ◽  
Elderly Patients ◽  
Value Of Information ◽  
Clinical Effectiveness ◽  
Cost Effective ◽  
Information Analysis ◽  
Invasive Strategy ◽  
Early Invasive Strategy

BackgroundNon-ST-elevation myocardial infarction (NSTEMI) is the most common type of heart attack in the UK and it is becoming increasingly prevalent among older people. An early invasive treatment strategy may be effective and cost-effective for treating NSTEMI but evidence is currently unclear.ObjectivesTo assess the cost-effectiveness of the early invasive strategy versus medical management in elderly patients with NSTEMI and to provide guidance for future research in this area.MethodsA long-term Markov state transition model was developed. Model inputs were systematically derived from a number of sources most appropriate to a UK relevant analysis, such as published studies and national routine data. Costs were estimated from the perspective of National Health Service and Personal Social Services. The model was developed using TreeAge Pro software. Based on a probabilistic sensitivity analysis, a value of information analysis was carried out to establish the value of decision uncertainty both overall and for specific input parameters.ResultsIn 2017 UK £, the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of the early invasive strategy was £46 916 for each additional quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained, with a probability of being cost-effective of 23% at a cost-effectiveness threshold of £20 000/QALY. There was a considerable decision uncertainty with these results. The value of removing all this uncertainty was up to £1 920 000 annually. Most uncertainty related to clinical effectiveness parameters and the optimal study design to remove this uncertainty would be a randomised controlled trial.ConclusionBased on current evidence, the early invasive strategy is not likely to be cost-effective for elderly patients with NSTEMI. This conclusion should be interpreted with caution mainly due to the absence of NSTEMI-specific data and long-term clinical effectiveness estimates.

scholarly journals Cost-Effectiveness of Pembrolizumab Plus Chemotherapy Versus Pembrolizumab Monotherapy in Metastatic Non-Squamous and Squamous NSCLC Patients With PD-L1 Expression ≥ 50%

2022 ◽  
Vol 12 ◽  
Author(s):  
Qiao Liu ◽  
Zhen Zhou ◽  
Xia Luo ◽  
Lidan Yi ◽  
Liubao Peng ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Cost Effectiveness ◽  
Life Expectancy ◽  
Cost Effective ◽  
Base Case ◽  
First Line ◽  
Term Survival ◽  
First Line Therapy ◽  
Line Therapy ◽  
Nsclc Patients

Objective To compare the cost-effectiveness of the combination of pembrolizumab and chemotherapy (Pembro+Chemo) versus pembrolizumab monotherapy (Pembro) as the first-line treatment for metastatic non-squamous and squamous non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC) with PD-L1expression ≥50%, respectively, from a US health care perspective.Material and Methods A comprehensive Makrov model were designed to compare the health costs and outcomes associated with first-line Pembro+Chemo and first-line Pembro over a 20-years time horizon. Health states consisted of three main states: progression-free survival (PFS), progressive disease (PD) and death, among which the PFS health state was divided into two substates: PFS while receiving first-line therapy and PFS with discontinued first-line therapy. Two scenario analyses were performed to explore satisfactory long-term survival modeling.Results In base case analysis, for non-squamous NSCLC patients, Pembro+Chemo was associated with a significantly longer life expectancy [3.24 vs 2.16 quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs)] and a substantially greater healthcare cost ($341,237 vs $159,055) compared with Pembro, resulting in an ICER of $169,335/QALY; for squamous NSCLC patients, Pembro+Chemo was associated with a slightly extended life expectancy of 0.22 QALYs and a marginal incremental cost of $3,449 compared with Pembro, resulting in an ICER of $15,613/QALY. Our results were particularly sensitive to parameters that determine QALYs. The first scenario analysis yielded lower ICERs than our base case results. The second scenario analysis founded Pembro+Chemo was dominated by Pembro.Conclusion For metastatic non-squamous NSCLC patients with PD-L1 expression ≥50%, first-line Pembro+Chemo was not cost-effective when compared with first-line Pembro. In contrast, for the squamous NSCLC patient population, our results supported the first-line Pembro+Chemo as a cost-effective treatment. Although there are multiple approaches that are used for extrapolating long-term survival, the optimal method has yet to be determined.

scholarly journals Bariatric surgery, lifestyle interventions and orlistat for severe obesity: the REBALANCE mixed-methods systematic review and economic evaluation

2018 ◽  
Vol 22 (68) ◽  
pp. 1-246 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alison Avenell ◽  
Clare Robertson ◽  
Zoë Skea ◽  
Elisabet Jacobsen ◽  
Dwayne Boyers ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Weight Loss ◽  
Cost Effectiveness ◽  
Weight Regain ◽  
Severe Obesity ◽  
Clinical Effectiveness ◽  
Cost Effective ◽  
Research Unit ◽  
Look Ahead ◽  
Obesity Trends

Background Adults with severe obesity [body mass index (BMI) of ≥ 35 kg/m2] have an increased risk of comorbidities and psychological, social and economic consequences. Objectives Systematically review bariatric surgery, weight-management programmes (WMPs) and orlistat pharmacotherapy for adults with severe obesity, and evaluate the feasibility, acceptability, clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of treatment. Data sources Electronic databases including MEDLINE, EMBASE, PsycINFO, the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials and the NHS Economic Evaluation Database were searched (last searched in May 2017). Review methods Four systematic reviews evaluated clinical effectiveness, cost-effectiveness and qualitative evidence for adults with a BMI of ≥ 35 kg/m2. Data from meta-analyses populated a microsimulation model predicting costs, outcomes and cost-effectiveness of Roux-en-Y gastric bypass (RYGB) surgery and the most effective lifestyle WMPs over a 30-year time horizon from a NHS perspective, compared with current UK population obesity trends. Interventions were cost-effective if the additional cost of achieving a quality-adjusted life-year is < £20,000–30,000. Results A total of 131 randomised controlled trials (RCTs), 26 UK studies, 33 qualitative studies and 46 cost-effectiveness studies were included. From RCTs, RYGB produced the greatest long-term weight change [–20.23 kg, 95% confidence interval (CI) –23.75 to –16.71 kg, at 60 months]. WMPs with very low-calorie diets (VLCDs) produced the greatest weight loss at 12 months compared with no WMPs. Adding a VLCD to a WMP gave an additional mean weight change of –4.41 kg (95% CI –5.93 to –2.88 kg) at 12 months. The intensive Look AHEAD WMP produced mean long-term weight loss of 6% in people with type 2 diabetes mellitus (at a median of 9.6 years). The microsimulation model found that WMPs were generally cost-effective compared with population obesity trends. Long-term WMP weight regain was very uncertain, apart from Look AHEAD. The addition of a VLCD to a WMP was not cost-effective compared with a WMP alone. RYGB was cost-effective compared with no surgery and WMPs, but the model did not replicate long-term cost savings found in previous studies. Qualitative data suggested that participants could be attracted to take part in WMPs through endorsement by their health-care provider or through perceiving innovative activities, with WMPs being delivered to groups. Features improving long-term weight loss included having group support, additional behavioural support, a physical activity programme to attend, a prescribed calorie diet or a calorie deficit. Limitations Reviewed studies often lacked generalisability to UK settings in terms of participants and resources for implementation, and usually lacked long-term follow-up (particularly for complications for surgery), leading to unrealistic weight regain assumptions. The views of potential and actual users of services were rarely reported to contribute to service design. This study may have failed to identify unpublished UK evaluations. Dual, blinded numerical data extraction was not undertaken. Conclusions Roux-en-Y gastric bypass was costly to deliver, but it was the most cost-effective intervention. Adding a VLCD to a WMP was not cost-effective compared with a WMP alone. Most WMPs were cost-effective compared with current population obesity trends. Future work Improved reporting of WMPs is needed to allow replication, translation and further research. Qualitative research is needed with adults who are potential users of, or who fail to engage with or drop out from, WMPs. RCTs and economic evaluations in UK settings (e.g. Tier 3, commercial programmes or primary care) should evaluate VLCDs with long-term follow-up (≥ 5 years). Decision models should incorporate relevant costs, disease states and evidence-based weight regain assumptions. Study registration This study is registered as PROSPERO CRD42016040190. Funding The National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment programme. The Health Services Research Unit and Health Economics Research Unit are core funded by the Chief Scientist Office of the Scottish Government Health and Social Care Directorate.

scholarly journals A comparative study of effectiveness, safety and cost effectiveness of olanzapine, risperidone and aripiprazole therapy in schizophrenia

2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (5) ◽  
pp. 786
Author(s):  
Pooja R. Kanani ◽  
Ajita Pillai
Keyword(s):  
Cost Effectiveness ◽  
Antipsychotic Drugs ◽  
Clinical Effectiveness ◽  
Cost Effective ◽  
Psychotic Symptoms ◽  
Average Dose ◽  
Psychiatric Hospitalizations ◽  
Score Analysis ◽  
Risperidone Group

Background: Schizophrenia is the most common psychotic disorder and responsible for approximately half of long-term psychiatric hospitalizations. Antipsychotic medications reduce the psychotic symptoms and prevent relapses. The choice of drug for treatment of schizophrenia depends on many issues, including effectiveness, cost, side-effect burden, availability, and tolerability. Many studies have compared antipsychotic drugs with one another, but no broad consensus has been reached. Our study compares the clinical effectiveness, safety and cost effectiveness of atypical antipsychotics in our setting.Methods: This was an observational, prospective study in which schizophrenia patients receiving either olanzapine, risperidone or aripiprazole were enrolled. Patients were followed up for 3 months. Evaluation of effectiveness was done by analysing mean reduction in PANSS score. Analysis of ADRs was done using WHO causality scale and Hartwig and Siegel severity scale. Cost analysis was done by comparing all three groups in term of cost range of antipsychotic drugs per improvement in PANSS score during the study period.Results: In the present study, the average dose of antipsychotic drugs received by a patient per day was 8.83±2.98 mg in olanzapine group, 4.76±1.12 mg in risperidone group and 20.43±8.5 mg in aripiprazole group. Mean reduction in PANSS score from baseline to 12 weeks was 23.79% in olanzapine group, 25.41% in risperidone group and 24.65% in aripiprazole group. Conclusions: All the groups were equally effective in reduction in PANSS score while risperidone was the most cost effective.

The Cost-Effectiveness of an RCT to Establish Whether 5 or 10 Years of Bisphosphonate Treatment Is the Better Duration for Women With a Prior Fracture

2009 ◽  
Vol 29 (6) ◽  
pp. 678-689 ◽  
Author(s):  
Matt D. Stevenson ◽  
Jeremy E. Oakley ◽  
Myfawny Lloyd Jones ◽  
Alan Brennan ◽  
Juliet E. Compston ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Cost Effectiveness ◽  
Cost Effective ◽  
Fracture Prevention ◽  
Published Data ◽  
Bisphosphonate Treatment ◽  
Net Benefit ◽  
England And Wales ◽  
Term Efficacy ◽  
The Cost

Purpose. Five years of bisphosphonate treatment have proven efficacy in reducing fractures. Concerns exist that long-term bisphosphonate treatment may actually result in an increased number of fractures. This study evaluates, in the context of England and Wales, whether it is cost-effective to conduct a randomized controlled trial (RCT) and what sample size may be optimal to estimate the efficacy of bisphosphonates in fracture prevention beyond 5 years. Method. An osteoporosis model was constructed to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of extending bisphosphonate treatment from 5 years to 10 years. Two scenarios were run. The 1st uses long-term efficacy data from published literature, and the 2nd uses distributions elicited from clinical experts. Results of a proposed RCT were simulated. The expected value of sample information technique was applied to calculate the expected net benefit of sampling from conducting such an RCT at varying levels of participants per arm and to compare this with proposed trial costs. Results. Without further information, the better duration of bisphosphonate treatment was estimated to be 5 years using the published data but 10 years using the elicited expert opinions, although in both cases uncertainty was substantial. The net benefit of sampling was consistently high when between 2000 and 5000 participants per arm were recruited. Conclusions. An RCT to evaluate the long-term efficacy of bisphosphonates in fracture prevention appears to be cost-effective for informing decision making in England and Wales.

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