An optimized mathematical model for cancer patient care planning in the COVID-19 era.

2021 ◽  
Vol 39 (15_suppl) ◽  
pp. e18663-e18663
Author(s):  
Isabel Blancas ◽  
David Martínez-Rodríguez ◽  
Fernando Rodríguez-Serrano ◽  
Rafael Jacinto Villanueva ◽  
Jose Manuel Garrido
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Demographic Data ◽  
Real Data ◽  
Oncologic Surgery ◽  
Number Of Patients ◽  
Oncologic Patients ◽  
Hospital Resources ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Using Data ◽  
The Mathematical Model

e18663 Background: The COVID-19 pandemic has threatened to collapse hospital and Intensive Care Unit (ICU) services, and it seems to limit the care of oncologic patients. The objective was to develop a mathematical model designed to predict the hospitalization and ICU admission demands due to COVID-19 to forecast the availability of hospital resources for the scheduling of oncological surgery and medical treatment that require hospitalitation or possible use of ICU services. Methods: We have implemented a SEIR model designed to predict the number of patients requiring hospitalization and ICU admissions for COVID-19. We evaluated the model using the number of cases registered in the hospitals of the province of Granada (Spain), that altogether cover 914,678 inhabitants. Calibration was performed using data recorded between March 15 and September 22, 2020. After that, the model was validated by comparing the predictions with data registered between September 23 and November 7, 2020. Besides, we performed a predictive analysis of scenarios regarding different possible sanitary measures. Results: Using patient registered data we developed a mathematical model that reflects the flow among the different sub-groups related to COVID-19 pandemics (Table). The best algorithm that fitted the disease dynamics was Particle Swarm Optimization, that minimized the difference between model output and real data used to calibrate the model. The validation phase showed the accuracy of the predictions, especially concerning trends in hospitalizations and ICU admissions. The different scenarios modelled on November 10, 2020 allowed us to predict the evolution of the pandemic until July 1, 2021, and to detect the peaks and valleys of disease prevalence. Conclusions: The mathematical model presented provides predictions on the evolution of COVID-19, the prevalence and hospital or ICU care demands. The predictions can be used to detect periods of greater availability of hospital resources that make it possible to schedule the oncologic surgery and intensify the care for oncologic patients. Furthermore, our model can be adapted to other population by recalibrating the model according to demographic data, the local evolution of the pandemic and the health policies. [Table: see text]

THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE MATHEMATICAL MODEL OF PREDICTING THE INDICATORS OF ACCREDITATION OF TECHNICAL UNIVERSITIES IN THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION

2017 ◽  
pp. 27-38
Author(s):  
Olga Mikhaylovna Tikhonova ◽  
Alexander Fedorovich Rezchikov ◽  
Vladimir Andreevich Ivashchenko ◽  
Vadim Alekseevich Kushnikov
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Model ◽  
System Dynamics ◽  
Regression Model ◽  
Oriented Graph ◽  
Real Data ◽  
Educational Process ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Linear Differential ◽  
The University ◽  
The Mathematical Model

The paper presents the system of predicting the indicators of accreditation of technical universities based on J. Forrester mechanism of system dynamics. According to analysis of cause-and-effect relationships between selected variables of the system (indicators of accreditation of the university) there was built the oriented graph. The complex of mathematical models developed to control the quality of training engineers in Russian higher educational institutions is based on this graph. The article presents an algorithm for constructing a model using one of the simulated variables as an example. The model is a system of non-linear differential equations, the modelling characteristics of the educational process being determined according to the solution of this system. The proposed algorithm for calculating these indicators is based on the system dynamics model and the regression model. The mathematical model is constructed on the basis of the model of system dynamics, which is further tested for compliance with real data using the regression model. The regression model is built on the available statistical data accumulated during the period of the university's work. The proposed approach is aimed at solving complex problems of managing the educational process in universities. The structure of the proposed model repeats the structure of cause-effect relationships in the system, and also provides the person responsible for managing quality control with the ability to quickly and adequately assess the performance of the system.

Condition Monitoring Technology for Connecting Part and Sliding Part of Reciprocating Compressor

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yoshifumi Mori ◽  
Takashi Saito ◽  
Yu Mizobe
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Natural Frequencies ◽  
Error Function ◽  
Connecting Rod ◽  
Value Analysis ◽  
Before And After ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Bending Modes ◽  
Parameter Values ◽  
The Mathematical Model

We focused on vibration characteristics of reciprocating compressors and constructed the mathematical model to calculate the natural frequencies and modes for crank angles and proposed a method to estimate the degree and the suspicious portion of failure by difference of temporal parameter values obtained using measuring data in operation and the mathematical model. In this paper, according to the proposed method, a case study is carried out using the field data, where the data were acquired before and after the failures occurred in the connecting parts of connecting rod, to prospect the difference between each parameter value for two operating states. Inspecting resonant characteristics each in the frequency response data relating to the natural frequencies for bending modes of the piston rod, we determined two resonant frequencies, which could correspond to the 1st and 2nd mode about bending of the piston rod. To equate the calculated each natural frequency from eigen value analysis based on the proposed model with each resonant frequency, we define the error function for the identified problem, namely optimum problem. In the identified results, it is found that some parameter values have much difference and the corresponding failure could occur around the connecting rod. We could show the possibility to detect both the change of the parameter values and the deterioration parts for two different kinds of the operating states by our proposed method.

Аpplication of the mathematical model of human torso for modeling abbreval influence in wound ballistics

2020 ◽  
Vol 22 (3) ◽  
pp. 132-139
Author(s):  
A. V. Denisov ◽  
M. D. Stepanov ◽  
N. A. Haraldin ◽  
A. V. Stepanov ◽  
A. I. Borovkov ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Element Model ◽  
Mechanical Action ◽  
Calculation Model ◽  
Calculation Results ◽  
Automated Processing ◽  
Original Calculation ◽  
Using Data ◽  
The Mathematical Model ◽  
Selection Of

Abstract. In the work, a review of scientific articles on the behavior of tissues and organs of the human body under local mechanical effects on it, as well as a description of the physico-mechanical properties of biological materials. The selection of mechanical behavior for each biological material as part of a mathematical model of the human torso was carried out, its finite element model was created, validation experiments were modeled using data presented in the literature. An original calculation model of a human torso with a tuned interaction of organs with each other was developed. Contact interaction parameters are determined. The developed computational model of a human torso was verified based on data from open sources for an experiment with mechanical action by a cylindrical impactor. An algorithm for processing pressure and acceleration graphs has been implemented in order to obtain tolerance curves. A specialized modular program has been created for the automated processing of calculation results and the output of the main results. 42 numerical tests were carried out simulating the entry of a steel ball into each of 21 zones for power engineers of 40 and 80 J. According to the results of the tests for each organ, pressure and acceleration tolerance curves were obtained, animations of the behavior of organs under shock were created, visualization of the pressure field propagation in organs was obtained torso.

Analisa Pengukuran Efisiensi Dengan Metode Data Envelopment Analysis (Dea) Di Heaven Store Surabaya Barat

2017 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 44
Author(s):  
Satya Swesty Widiyana ◽  
Rus Indiyanto
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Data Envelopment Analysis ◽  
Customer Satisfaction ◽  
Customer Service ◽  
Data Envelopment ◽  
Input And Output ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Measurement Efficiency ◽  
The Mathematical Model

ABSTRACTThis study was taken from the problems in Heaven Store ranging from turnover does not reach the target, the different display products for each branch, and a just few reference customer visiting from problems in customer satisfaction. because the values of input and output obtained from each branch has a different values so demanding customers Heaven Store to correct weaknesses in the efficiency of customer service and satisfaction, then we tried to respond to the challenges of these improvements to the study "Analysis of Measurement Efficiency Services Methods Data envelopment analysis (DEA) In Heaven Store in West Surabaya "So in this study, researchers will assist the managementHeaven Store for measuring the level of efficiency that Heaven store along 5th branches can improve the quality of service by using data envelopment analysis (DEA), which is a methods that determine the level of efficiency similar organization where efficiency is not determined by the organization concerned. It is hoped this analysis will help the management to withdraw the customer so that the customer can buy the products that are sold in Heaven Store. After calculation of the mathematical model by referring to the calculation of the mathematical model DEA CRS, obtained the efficiency 0.8479688 on the fifth branch Heaven Store, then after an improvement in input and output according to the reference fixes the target model of DEA CRS, then the value of the relative efficiency DMU 5 can be increased from 0.8479688 (inefficient) to 1.000000 (efficient). Keywords: Data Envelopment Analysis, customer satisfaction, efficiency

A European randomised controlled trial for venous leg ulcers: a mathematical model analysis

2020 ◽  
Vol 29 (11) ◽  
pp. 678-685
Author(s):  
Regina Renner
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Wound Healing ◽  
Linear Growth ◽  
Controlled Trial ◽  
Growth Function ◽  
Wound Area ◽  
Number Of Patients ◽  
N 93 ◽  
Randomised Controlled ◽  
The Mathematical Model

Objective: Mathematical models have the potential to provide valuable insights into complex, biochemical and biomechanical processes. Previously, we developed a mathematical model with a non-linear growth function but could only confirm the feasibility of this model in clinical trials with a small number of patients. This limited the validity of our model. To increase validity, we applied the model to a larger number of patients. Method: The mathematical model was applied to patient data from a randomised controlled trial as part of the post-evaluation of the model. In this trial, patients with venous leg ulcers were randomised for treatment with either a two-layer bandage or a four-layer bandage. Results: Data for 186 patients were analysed (two-layer bandage group, n=93; four-layer bandage group, n=93). Using the non-linear growth function, it was confirmed that the two-layer bandage was not inferior to the four-layer bandage. In addition, the mathematical model calculated individual wound healing trajectories and mean wound healing trajectories for both bandage systems. By extrapolating to t→∞, the two-layer bandage had a marginal benefit and resulted in a persistent wound area that was 7% of the initial wound area compared with 17% for the four-layer bandage. Conclusion: This analysis supported the previously performed statistical analysis, and allowed us to obtain details of the treated study population that may help in non-inferiority trials via extrapolation. It also provided new insights into the wound healing process by generating wound healing trajectories.

Identification Method of Restrictions of Treatment Method Using Algebraic Model of Constructive Logic on the Example of Hyperbaric Oxygen Therapy in Oncological Pathology

2015 ◽  
Vol 22 (3) ◽  
pp. 79-86 ◽  
Author(s):  
Дзасохов ◽  
Aleksey Dzasokhov ◽  
Хромушин ◽  
Viktor Khromushin ◽  
Китанина ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Hyperbaric Oxygen ◽  
Hyperbaric Oxygen Therapy ◽  
Oxygen Therapy ◽  
Algebraic Model ◽  
Total Power ◽  
Constructive Logic ◽  
Number Of Patients ◽  
The Mathematical Model ◽  
Oncological Pathology

Mathematical device of algebraic model of constructive logic has been used for many years for multivariate analysis in medicine and biology most often to identify causal relationships. This mathematical apparatus can be used for more complex analysis schemes for the purpose of determining the contingent of patients who require this method of treatment. The proposed method is a two-step analysis using algebraic model of constructive logic with different specified purposes and subsequent analysis of the resulting final components of the mathematical model. As a result, it is possible to identify restrictions and to quantify the number of patients who need to analyzed method of treatment. The proposed method is explained by an analytical study of hyperbaric oxygen therapy in oncological pathology. Analysis of the results revealed 7,87-39,35% of patients requiring hyperbaric oxygen therapy. The authors revealed the restrictions presented resulting final components of the mathematical model in the form of limits of detection of the combined factors. The equity analysis of values of the resulting components of the mathematical model is associated with the need to calculate the maximum possible total power of the resulting components of the mathematical model, used in expert systems.

Updating the Mathematical Model of a Structure Using Vibration Data

2005 ◽  
Vol 11 (12) ◽  
pp. 1469-1486 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ashutosh Bagchi
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Model Updating ◽  
Three Dimensional ◽  
Field Tests ◽  
Mode Shapes ◽  
Actual Structure ◽  
Shell Elements ◽  
Vibration Data ◽  
The Difference ◽  
The Mathematical Model

Model updating is an important step for correlating the mathematical model of a structure to the real one. There are a variety of techniques available for model updating using dynamic and static measurements of the structure’s behavior. This paper concentrates on the model updating techniques using the natural frequencies or frequencies and mode shapes of a structure. An iterative technique is developed based on the matrix update method. The method hasbeenappliedtothefiniteelement models of a three span continuous steel free deck bridge located in western Canada. The finite element models of the bridge have been constructed using three-dimensional beam and facet shell elements and the models have been updated using the measured frequencies. From the study it is clear that the initial model needs to be built such that it represents the actual structure as closely as possible. The results demonstrate that the difference between the modal parameters from the model and field tests affect the quality of the model updating process.

scholarly journals Mathematical Model of Growth in The Number of Students in NTB Using Newton-Gregory Polynomial Method

Jurnal Varian ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 43-50
Author(s):  
Habib Ratu Perwira Negara ◽  
Malik Ibrahim ◽  
Kiki Riska Ayu Kurniawati
Keyword(s):  
High School ◽  
Mathematical Model ◽  
High School Students ◽  
Junior High School ◽  
Junior High ◽  
Vocational School ◽  
Polynomial Method ◽  
School Students ◽  
Using Data ◽  
The Mathematical Model

This research aims to find out the mathematical model and predict the growth in the number of elementary, junior high, high school, and vocational school students in NTB Province, using the Newton-Gregory Advanced Polynomial method. The result of simulating the predicted growth of the number of elementary school students in NTB in 2020 is 319565, with MAD at 353178, MSE at 1247346996840, MAPE at 68,655. Then for the predicted growth of the number of junior high school students in NTB in 2020 of 165141 with MAD of 1876271.7, MSE amounted to 3520395492220, MAPE amounted to at 1077.7039. Furthermore, the predicted growth of the number of high school students in NTB was 399679 with MAD of 44154, MSE of 19495757160, MAPE of 42.0719. while for the results of the simulation of predicted growth in the number of vocational school students in NTB in 2020 is 3738854 with MAD of 393779, MSE amounted to 15506190084.1, MAPE amounted to 49.2027. Based on the results of this study can state that Newton-Gregory Interpolation advanced by using GUI on Matlab, can predict the growing number of elementary, junior high, high school, and vocational students in NTB by using data on the number of students in 2009-2019 and obtained mathematical models of elementary, junior high, high school, and vocational school growth.

scholarly journals Aluminum bar cutting optimization for door and window manufacturing

DYNA ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 87 (212) ◽  
pp. 155-162
Author(s):  
Ageu Araujo Machado ◽  
João Carlos Zayatz ◽  
Marcos Meurer Da Silva ◽  
Guilherme Melluzzi Neto ◽  
Gislaine Camila Lapasini Leal ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Real Data ◽  
Raw Material ◽  
Process Efficiency ◽  
Computational Time ◽  
Advantages And Disadvantages ◽  
Key Factor ◽  
Material Procurement ◽  
The One ◽  
The Mathematical Model

This study aims to optimize the one-dimensional cutting process of aluminum bars for the production of aluminum doors. Reducing the use of bars and the amount of material that becomes scrap is a key factor in process efficiency, reducing the need for raw material procurement. The mathematical model used considers the size of the bar, the number and size of cuts, the size of the leftovers that can be used and the size of the leftovers that are considered scrap. Based on real data from a company in the aluminum frame segment, the mathematical model was used to simulate three different scenarios. Three different objective functions were used in the simulations, and the results obtained in each scenario were described in order to indicate the advantages and disadvantages of using each objective function. For the instance sizes studied, the model is able to obtain optimal solutions with little computational time.

scholarly journals Measurement of the effect of chromaticity and intensity on colour representation parameters of a CRT display

2015 ◽  
Vol 2 (1-2.) ◽  
Author(s):  
Klára Wenzel ◽  
Ágnes Urbin
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Model ◽  
The Difference ◽  
The Mathematical Model

The aim of the measurement detailed in this paper was to measure the just-noticable stimuli of the participating subjects. The stimuli were defined by chromaticity and intensity as the main parameters of the mathematical model. The results show correlance between intensity and the just-noticable stimuli, as described in the Weber-Frechner Law but a contradiction was shown after the analysis in the function of chromaticity. This contradiction can be explained by the difference between the sensitivity of the three cones of the eye.

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