Impact of Follow-Up Colonoscopy Quality on Canadian Colorectal Cancer Outcomes and Costs
Background: Most colorectal cancer (CRC) cases develop from precancerous polyps. Screening using fecal testing for occult blood, with follow-up diagnostic colonoscopy to remove polyps, can prevent invasive cancer from occurring. However, there is variation in the quality of colonoscopy, which may result in nonoptimal health outcomes. Aim: We evaluated the impact of follow-up colonoscopy quality on health outcomes, resource utilization and costs using the OncoSim-CRC microsimulation model (version 2.5). Methods: OncoSim is a microsimulation model led by the Canadian Partnership Against Cancer with model development by Statistics Canada. We compared results of high quality follow-up colonoscopy after positive fecal immunochemical testing (FIT) (colonoscopy sensitivity for cancer detection= 95%; compliance to follow-up colonoscopy = 85%) with that of reduced quality colonoscopy. Variations in colonoscopy performance were simulated through plausible overall effectiveness reduction (ER) and incomplete colonoscopy (IC). Screening system/patient follow-up deficiencies were simulated through poor compliance to diagnostic colonoscopy (PC). Modeling assumptions included: Biennial FIT screening of average-risk people aged 50-74; positive FIT followed by diagnostic colonoscopy; ER = 20% reduction in overall sensitivity; IC = zero sensitivity in proximal colon; PC = compliance reduction by 50%. Overall cost was calculated for 2017-2036 in undiscounted 2016 CAD, and included screening, treatment and end-of-life costs. Results: Compared with high quality colonoscopy follow-up, incomplete colonoscopy with poor compliance over 20 years led to as many as 12% new cases of CRC; 23% more CRC deaths; 89% more interval cancers; and 6% increased costs to the health care system, annually. Conclusion: Reduced colonoscopy quality can lead to considerable declines in the predicted effectiveness of screening and to increased costs to the healthcare system. Efforts to increase and maintain colonoscopy performance is a necessary component of CRC control planning.