Comparison of CGCM3, CSIRO MK3 and HADCM3 Models in Estimating the Effects of Climate Change on Temperature and Precipitation in Taleghan Basin

AbstractWithin the mountain altitudinal vegetation belts, the shift of forest tree lines and subalpine steppe belts to high altitudes constitutes an obvious response to global climate change. However, whether or not similar changes occur in steppe belts (low altitude) and nival belts in different areas within mountain systems remain undetermined. It is also unknown if these, responses to climate change are consistent. Here, using Landsat remote sensing images from 1989 to 2015, we obtained the spatial distribution of altitudinal vegetation belts in different periods of the Tianshan Mountains in Northwestern China. We suggest that the responses from different altitudinal vegetation belts to global climate change are different. The changes in the vegetation belts at low altitudes are spatially different. In high-altitude regions (higher than the forest belts), however, the trend of different altitudinal belts is consistent. Specifically, we focused on analyses of the impact of changes in temperature and precipitation on the nival belts, desert steppe belts, and montane steppe belts. The results demonstrated that the temperature in the study area exhibited an increasing trend, and is the main factor of altitudinal vegetation belts change in the Tianshan Mountains. In the context of a significant increase in temperature, the upper limit of the montane steppe in the eastern and central parts will shift to lower altitudes, which may limit the development of local animal husbandry. The montane steppe in the west, however, exhibits the opposite trend, which may augment the carrying capacity of pastures and promote the development of local animal husbandry. The lower limit of the nival belt will further increase in all studied areas, which may lead to an increase in surface runoff in the central and western regions.

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Projections for Mexico’s Tropical Rainforests Considering Ecological Niche and Climate Change

Forests ◽

10.3390/f12020119 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 12 (2) ◽

pp. 119

Author(s):

Antonio Fidel Santos-Hernández ◽

Alejandro Ismael Monterroso-Rivas ◽

Diódoro Granados-Sánchez ◽

Antonio Villanueva-Morales ◽

Malinali Santacruz-Carrillo

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Ecological Niche ◽

Potential Distribution ◽

Tropical Rainforest ◽

Statistical Significance ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Climate Conditions ◽

Tropical Regions ◽

Temperature And Precipitation ◽

Ecological Importance

The tropical rainforest is one of the lushest and most important plant communities in Mexico’s tropical regions, yet its potential distribution has not been studied in current and future climate conditions. The aim of this paper was to propose priority areas for conservation based on ecological niche and species distribution modeling of 22 species with the greatest ecological importance at the climax stage. Geographic records were correlated with bioclimatic temperature and precipitation variables using Maxent and Kuenm software for each species. The best Maxent models were chosen based on statistical significance, complexity and predictive power, and current potential distributions were obtained from these models. Future potential distributions were projected with two climate change scenarios: HADGEM2_ES and GFDL_CM3 models and RCP 8.5 W/m2 by 2075–2099. All potential distributions for each scenario were then assembled for further analysis. We found that 14 tropical rainforest species have the potential for distribution in 97.4% of the landscape currently occupied by climax vegetation (0.6% of the country). Both climate change scenarios showed a 3.5% reduction in their potential distribution and possible displacement to higher elevation regions. Areas are proposed for tropical rainforest conservation where suitable bioclimatic conditions are expected to prevail.

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Effects of climatic factors on the net primary productivity in the source region of Yangtze River, China

Scientific Reports ◽

10.1038/s41598-020-80494-9 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 11 (1) ◽

Author(s):

Zhe Yuan ◽

Yongqiang Wang ◽

Jijun Xu ◽

Zhiguang Wu

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Primary Productivity ◽

Yangtze River ◽

Net Primary Productivity ◽

Climatic Factors ◽

Source Region ◽

Primary Reason ◽

Vegetation Types ◽

Temperature And Precipitation ◽

Increasing Trend

AbstractThe ecosystem of the Source Region of Yangtze River (SRYR) is highly susceptible to climate change. In this study, the spatial–temporal variation of NPP from 2000 to 2014 was analyzed, using outputs of Carnegie–Ames–Stanford Approach model. Then the correlation characteristics of NPP and climatic factors were evaluated. The results indicate that: (1) The average NPP in the SRYR is 100.0 gC/m2 from 2000 to 2014, and it shows an increasing trend from northwest to southeast. The responses of NPP to altitude varied among the regions with the altitude below 3500 m, between 3500 to 4500 m and above 4500 m, which could be attributed to the altitude associated variations of climatic factors and vegetation types; (2) The total NPP of SRYR increased by 0.18 TgC per year in the context of the warmer and wetter climate during 2000–2014. The NPP was significantly and positively correlated with annual temperature and precipitation at interannual time scales. Temperature in February, March, May and September make greater contribution to NPP than that in other months. And precipitation in July played a more crucial role in influencing NPP than that in other months; (3) Climatic factors caused the NPP to increase in most of the SRYR. Impacts of human activities were concentrated mainly in downstream region and is the primary reason for declines in NPP.

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Mediterranean climate change projections: an update from CMIP5 and CMIP6.

10.5194/egusphere-egu21-12803 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Josep Cos ◽

Francisco J Doblas-Reyes ◽

Martin Jury

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

21St Century ◽

Hot Spot ◽

Weighting Scheme ◽

Temperature And Precipitation ◽

High Emission ◽

The Mediterranean ◽

Model Ensembles ◽

Projected Changes ◽

Model Weighting

The Mediterranean has been identified as a climate change hot-spot due to increased warming trends and precipitation decline. Recently, CMIP6 was found to show a higher climate sensitivity than its predecessor CMIP5, potentially further exacerbating related impacts on the Mediterranean region.To estimate the impacts of the ongoing climate change on the region, we compare projections of various CMIP5 and CMIP6 experiments and scenarios. In particular, we focus on summer and winter changes in temperature and precipitation for the 21st century under RCP2.6/SSP1-2.6, RCP4.5/SSP2-4.5 and RCP8.5/SSP5-8.5 as well as the high resolution HighResMIP experiments. Additionally, to give robust estimates of projected changes we apply a novel model weighting scheme, accounting for historical performance and inter-independence of the multi-member multi-model ensembles, using ERA5, JRA55 and WFDE5 as observational reference.&#160;Our results indicate a significant and robust warming over the Mediterranean during the 21st century irrespective of the used ensemble and experiments. Nevertheless, the often attested amplified Mediterranean warming is only found for summer. The projected changes vary between the CMIP5 and CMIP6, with the latter projecting a stronger warming. For the high emission scenarios and without weighting, CMIP5 indicates a warming between 4 and 7.7&#186;C in summer and 2.7 and 5&#186;C in winter, while CMIP6 projects temperature increases between 5.6 and 9.2&#186;C in summer and 3.2 to 6.8&#186;C in winter until 2081-2100 in respect to 1985-2005. In contrast to temperature, precipitation changes show a higher level of uncertainty and spatial heterogeneity. However, for the high emission scenario, a robust decline in precipitation is projected for large parts of the Mediterranean during summer. First results applying the model weighting scheme indicate reductions in CMIP6 and increases in CMIP5 warming trends, thereby reducing differences between the two ensembles.

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Characteristics of Climate Change and Extreme Weather from 1951 to 2011 in China

International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health ◽

10.3390/ijerph15112540 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 15 (11) ◽

pp. 2540 ◽

Cited By ~ 4

Author(s):

Chunli Zhao ◽

Jianguo Chen ◽

Peng Du ◽

Hongyong Yuan

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Spatial Scale ◽

Spatial Scales ◽

Seasonal Fluctuation ◽

Extreme Weather ◽

Temperature And Precipitation ◽

Weather Variation ◽

Variation Characteristics ◽

Established Fact ◽

Temporal And Spatial

It has been demonstrated that climate change is an established fact. A good comprehension of climate and extreme weather variation characteristics on a temporal and a spatial scale is important for adaptation and response. In this work, the characteristics of temperature, precipitation, and extreme weather distribution and variation is summarized for a period of 60 years and the seasonal fluctuation of temperature and precipitation is also analyzed. The results illustrate the reduction in daily and annual temperature divergence on both temporal and spatial scales. However, the gaps remain relatively significant. Furthermore, the disparity in daily and annual precipitation are found to be increasing on both temporal and spatial scales. The findings indicate that climate change, to a certain extent, narrowed the temperature gap while widening the precipitation gap on temporal and spatial scales in China.

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Impact of Climate Change on Water Availability and Food Security of Nepal

Hydro Nepal Journal of Water Energy and Environment ◽

10.3126/hn.v11i1.7206 ◽

2012 ◽

pp. 59-63

Author(s):

Roshan Kumar Mehta ◽

Shree Chandra Shah

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Crop Production ◽

Climatic Factors ◽

Monsoon Season ◽

Groundwater Table ◽

Maximum Temperature ◽

Aquatic Life ◽

Temperature And Precipitation ◽

Average Maximum ◽

Water Scarce

The increase in the concentration of greenhouse gases (GHGs) in the atmosphere is widely believed to be causing climate change. It affects agriculture, forestry, human health, biodiversity, and snow cover and aquatic life. Changes in climatic factors like temperature, solar radiation and precipitation have potential to influence agrobiodiversity and its production. An average of 0.04°C/ year and 0.82 mm/year rise in annual average maximum temperature and precipitation respectively from 1975 to 2006 has been recorded in Nepal. Frequent droughts, rise in temperature, shortening of the monsoon season with high intensity rainfall, severe floods, landslides and mixed effects on agricultural biodiversity have been experienced in Nepal due to climatic changes. A survey done in the Chitwan District reveals that lowering of the groundwater table decreases production and that farmers are attracted to grow less water consuming crops during water scarce season. The groundwater table in the study area has lowered nearly one meter from that of 15 years ago as experienced by the farmers. Traditional varieties of rice have been replaced in the last 10 years by modern varieties, and by agricultural crops which demand more water for cultivation. The application of groundwater for irrigation has increased the cost of production and caused severe negative impacts on marginal crop production and agro-biodiversity. It is timely that suitable adaptive measures are identified in order to make Nepalese agriculture more resistant to the adverse impacts of climate change, especially those caused by erratic weather patterns such as the ones experienced recently.DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.3126/hn.v11i1.7206 Hydro Nepal Special Issue: Conference Proceedings 2012 pp.59-63

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Projections of Twenty-First-Century Climate Extremes for Alaska via Dynamical Downscaling and Quantile Mapping

Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology ◽

10.1175/jamc-d-16-0415.1 ◽

2017 ◽

Vol 56 (9) ◽

pp. 2393-2409 ◽

Cited By ~ 18

Author(s):

Rick Lader ◽

John E. Walsh ◽

Uma S. Bhatt ◽

Peter A. Bieniek

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Dynamical Downscaling ◽

Climate Extremes ◽

First Century ◽

The Arctic ◽

Maximum Temperature ◽

Daily Maximum Temperature ◽

Quantile Mapping ◽

Temperature And Precipitation ◽

Twenty First Century

AbstractClimate change is expected to alter the frequencies and intensities of at least some types of extreme events. Although Alaska is already experiencing an amplified response to climate change, studies of extreme event occurrences have lagged those for other regions. Forced migration due to coastal erosion, failing infrastructure on thawing permafrost, more severe wildfire seasons, altered ocean chemistry, and an ever-shrinking season for snow and ice are among the most devastating effects, many of which are related to extreme climate events. This study uses regional dynamical downscaling with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model to investigate projected twenty-first-century changes of daily maximum temperature, minimum temperature, and precipitation over Alaska. The forcing data used for the downscaling simulations include the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) interim reanalysis (ERA-Interim; 1981–2010), Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Climate Model, version 3 (GFDL CM3), historical (1976–2005), and GFDL CM3 representative concentration pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5; 2006–2100). Observed trends of temperature and sea ice coverage in the Arctic are large, and the present trajectory of global emissions makes a continuation of these trends plausible. The future scenario is bias adjusted using a quantile-mapping procedure. Results indicate an asymmetric warming of climate extremes; namely, cold extremes rise fastest, and the greatest changes occur in winter. Maximum 1- and 5-day precipitation amounts are projected to increase by 53% and 50%, which is larger than the corresponding increases for the contiguous United States. When compared with the historical period, the shifts in temperature and precipitation indicate unprecedented heat and rainfall across Alaska during this century.

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Climate change effects on annual streamflow of Filyos River (Turkey)

Journal of Water and Climate Change ◽

10.2166/wcc.2018.060 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 11 (2) ◽

pp. 420-433 ◽

Cited By ~ 6

Author(s):

Adem Yavuz Sönmez ◽

Semih Kale

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Trend Analysis ◽

Change Point ◽

Change Point Analysis ◽

Climatic Data ◽

Climatic Parameters ◽

Annual Streamflow ◽

Climate Change Effects ◽

Temperature And Precipitation ◽

Point Analysis

Abstract The main purpose of this study was to estimate possible climate change effects on the annual streamflow of Filyos River (Turkey). Data for annual streamflow and climatic parameters were obtained from streamflow gauging stations on the river and Bartın, Karabük, Zonguldak meteorological observation stations. Time series analysis was performed on 46 years of annual streamflow data and 57 years of annual mean climatic data from three monitoring stations to understand the trends. Pettitt change-point analysis was applied to determine the change time and trend analysis was performed to forecast trends. To reveal the relationship between climatic parameters and streamflow, correlation tests, namely, Spearman's rho and Kendall's tau were applied. The results of Pettitt change-point analysis pointed to 2000 as the change year for streamflow. Change years for temperature and precipitation were detected as 1997 and 2000, respectively. Trend analysis results indicated decreasing trends in the streamflow and precipitation, and increasing trend in temperature. These changes were found statistically significant for streamflow (p < 0.05) and temperature (p < 0.01). Also, a statistically significant (p < 0.05) correlation was found between streamflow and precipitation. In conclusion, decreasing precipitation and increasing temperature as a result of climate change initiated a decrease in the river streamflow.

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Influência de Mudanças Climáticas no Balanço Hídrico da Amazônia Ocidental (Influence of Climate Change on Water Budget of Western Amazonia)

Revista Brasileira de Geografia Física ◽

10.26848/rbgf.v3i3.232656 ◽

2011 ◽

Vol 3 (3) ◽

pp. 170 ◽

Cited By ~ 6

Author(s):

Ailton Marcolino Liberato ◽

José Ivaldo B. De Brito

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Soil Moisture ◽

Air Temperature ◽

Water Budget ◽

Fire Risk ◽

Climate Index ◽

Climate Trends ◽

Climatological Data ◽

Temperature And Precipitation

A presente pesquisa teve por objetivo investigar possíveis alterações em componentes do balanço hídrico climático, associadas a diferentes cenários (A2 e B2) das mudanças climáticas do IPCC, para a Amazônia Ocidental (Acre, Amazonas, Rondônia e Roraima). Os dados climatológicos de temperatura do ar e totais de precipitação pluvial usados como referência neste estudo, são oriundos do INMET (1961-2005), da CEPLAC (1983-1999) e da reanálise do NCEP/NCAR (1983-1995). O método utilizado na elaboração do balanço hídrico é o de Thornthwaite e Mather (1957) modificado por Krishan (1980). Os resultados das projeções mostram tendência de clima mais seco, diminuição na umidade do solo, redução na vazão dos rios, aumento no risco de incêndio e diminuição no escoamento superficial e sub-superficial para a Amazônia Ocidental até 2100.Palavras-chave: cenários, índices climáticos, Amazônia. Influence of Climate Change on Water Budget of Western Amazonia ABSTRACTThe main objective of this study was investigate possible alterations in the climatic water budget components associated with different scenarios (A2 and B2) of the IPCC to Amazonian Western (Acre, Amazonas, Rondônia and Roraima). The climatological data of air temperature and precipitation from the INMET (1961-2005), CEPLAC (1983-1999) and NCEP/NCAR reanalysis (1983-1995) were used in the present study. The Thornthwaite and Mather (1955) method was used in the elaboration of the climatic water budget modified by Krishan (1980). The results of the projections show drier climate trends and decrease of the soil moisture, reduction in the rivers discharge, increase in the fire risk and decrease in the runoff for the Amazonian Western up to 2100. Keywords: scenarios, climate index, Amazonian.

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